The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
In my spelling of Buveur for starters :lol:

The point I am making is he achieved as much in his Champion Hurdle as Faugheen did in his..Let's not forget once Our Conor had gone the race fell apart

Considering Buvi was having only the second race of his life against senior hurdlers and won the Champion Hurdle going away I'd say that in itself outdid Faugheen's fast diminishing lead when he won.

Let's say there wasn't much between them on CH form which one would you expect to improve most?
 
GRASSY>>>>Firstly, Faugheen may be rising 10yo, but has few miles on the clock, and only has 5 more hurdles starts than BDA.

Having seen first hand what can happen to horses who are inactive for a long time the lack of races is no asset.

Plus if your 10 then you're 10 and when asked to go that extra yard Sorry! you will get found out.

It's one thing beating another OAP round a park course in a slow time it's a completely different thing taking on the reigning Champion Hurdler with youth on his side
 
Its fun debating this, but look at it this way Kauto. The presence of Faugheen and his followers only serves to create a price for Buv. He’d be odds on if Faugheen hadn’t made it back.

I’m a big fan of both horses but I’ve got to side with the youngster on this occasion.


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TheBear said:
Its fun debating this, but look at it this way Kauto. The presence of Faugheen and his followers only serves to create a price for Buv. He’d be odds on if Faugheen hadn’t made it back.

I’m a big fan of both horses but I’ve got to side with the youngster on this occasion.


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Agree with this point of view. Faugheen being priced like he's back to his very best. Not a given.
 
Tanlic said:
In my spelling of Buveur for starters :lol:

Let's say there wasn't much between them on CH form which one would you expect to improve most?
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Buveur has the greater room for improvement as he has yet to reach the levels of Faugheen.

Faugheen need not improve to retain, more maintain
 
Yes Bear, though I'very had plenty of 4s over the last couple of months. Threes or anywhere near it on the day would be like a Christmas present in March.
 
Tanlic said:
In my spelling of Buveur for starters [emoji38]

The point I am making is he achieved as much in his Champion Hurdle as Faugheen did in his..Let's not forget once Our Conor had gone the race fell apart
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Wrong year Tanlic.... TNO was hampered when Our Conor fell in 2014, when Jezki won the CH.. Faugheen was running in the Neptune

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@Kauto, yes Faugheen only participated in one CH in which he didn't performed to anything of what he's capable of, due to tactics, no prep, jump mistakes. He showed something of what he's able in the 2016 Irish CH, he's back now and apparently hasn't lost anything from the 2 year absence. Once he'll participate in another CH there's a chance his true potential(in terms of ratings achieved) will come through as he hasn't had the proper chance to show it as of yet.

Petit Mouchoir is not Faugheen and is not only about setting fast fractions, is about living with them till the end and no one in Faugheen's career has been able to. If you're comparing fractions, I remind you that on Timeform sectional analysis Faugheen is the fastest performer 2 years in a row(for his comeback for 2017 and ICH for 2016) since they began doing these over jumps.

If you think that his first run was everything, then you're talking about a different horse, not Faugheen who notoriously gets better with every race and gets worse with every break. Yes he was fitter than most years because Mullins has the experience of 4-5 seasons after which came very fat from the summer break, but getting race fit can only happen on track not on the home gallops and he has still plenty to do in order to fully achieve match fitness.

As for being "few pounds shy", if you think 7 pounds on official ratings(169 Bdair, 176 Faugheen) at their best is a short enough margin for BDair to improve to then thats great for you but personally I don't think half a stone is such an easy margin to overcome. Again, that figure without Faugheen being fully extended and with 2 jumping errors..
 
Here’s one for ye lads, especially for anyone crabbing MTOY. The 2015 (Faugheen) and the 2016 (Annie Power) Champion Hurdle were both run on almost identical ground. The archive for Turftrax going reads 6.9 for 2015 and 6.8 for 2016 when Annie Power won, just a fraction slower. It means we can compare them practically the same. Annie broke the track record that day clocking 3m. 35.10 secs with MTOY 0.80 seconds, 4 & a half lengths back in 2nd.

Annie Power set some serious fractions and was between 4-5.5 seconds ahead at every hurdle on split screen on Faugheens race, again allowing for both races starting as the leaders in both races(Faugheen in ‘15 and The New One in ‘16 take the first hurdle.

On a split screen when MTOY passes the line in second there’s a further 4.6 seconds until Faugheen crosses the line in his win. Now it must be said that Annie was getting 7lbs off MTOY and it was Tents first race in 2 years!! A serious performance. A year on and with 3 races under his belt the Tent gets done by Buveur D’Air by 4 and a half lengths but this time he’s not giving 7lbs away. They’re both carrying equal weights.

My Tent Or Yours is a good yardstick in comparing the 2015 & 2017 races and to say he wouldn’t get near Faugheen is just way off the mark.




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Aughex said:
@Kauto, yes Faugheen only participated in one CH
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Glad we cleared that one up!

no prep
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This still hasn’t been cleared up. Faugheen had two races before his CH win.



Petit Mouchoir is not Faugheen and is not only about setting fast fractions, is about living with them till the end and no one in Faugheen's career has been able to.
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Clearly not. The reference was in response to your initial comment that they should ready BD for a very quickly run CH and not saunter around like he did yesterday. The PM reference was to demonstrate he’ll have no bother with that.


As for being "few pounds shy", if you think 7 pounds on official ratings(169 Bdair, 176 Faugheen) at their best is a short enough margin for BDair to improve to then thats great for you but personally I don't think half a stone is such an easy margin to overcome.
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Faugheen’s rating is 172 now since the Morgianna. If we were to go on every horses rating at their highest we’d all be very poor punters. Faugheen best was rated 176...2 years ago. Buveur D’Air is 6 and has yet to reach his best. There’s 3lbs between them right now. That’s all we can go on.






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There's a direct correlation between the number of days off and running at the peak ability of a horse. Faugheen bucked that trend twice, but you can count the number of horses on 1 hand in the past 25-30 years that went on to win a championship race with no prep race for almost 3 months and normally only the types that run very well fto are left to go without one at Cheltenham. Faugheen gets better with more racing as proven by his 3 seasons form.

No one says all horses run to their ratings every single time, what I'm saying is that if Faugheen finally makes it to his 2nd CH he'll get the chance to improve that 176 figure that was achieved with ease, jump mistakes and horses in behind that didn't fully run their races, while at Cheltenham there'll be no reason to believe BDair won't run at his best and probably even improve.
 
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granger said:
Don't rewrite history with facts
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Double Handful said:
Wrong year Tanlic.... TNO was hampered when Our Conor fell in 2014, when Jezki won the CH.. Faugheen was running in the Neptune

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My bad I was going ob memory which failed me. It still doesn't justify Grassy's claim that MTOY with his record wouldn't get anywhere near Faugheen.

Had he run in it that year it would be a brave man who would put money on him being out of the 3 or even him being 2nd yet again knowing what we know now.

What amazes me is Nicky is preparing him yet again for another go. If he makes it and Faugheen makes it it could be a toss up which one finishes second:whistle:
 
Kauto Abu said:
Clearly not. The reference was in response to your initial comment that they should ready BD for a very quickly run CH and not saunter around like he did yesterday. The PM reference was to demonstrate he’ll have no bother with that.
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There's good evidence that Faugheen will prove the stronger stayer, and a searching pace would be more in his favour than BDA's
 
You were looking through that same green & gold tinted glass not so long ago Grass. Only problem was they were DDS colours. He’ll carry JP’s 3rd or 4th string colours next March.......in the county hurdle.


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At what point did I say DDS was near the class of BDA, let alone Faugheen?

Have a word with yourself.
 
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Kauto Abu said:
You were looking through that same green & gold tinted glass not so long ago Grass. Only problem was they were DDS colours. He’ll carry JP’s 3rd or 4th string colours next March.......in the county hurdle.
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To help correct the above nonsense, here are some of my Quotes from this thread, re DDS:

"Buveur D'Air is a worthy favourite at this stage, but him apart, the rest of the division is weak (relatively speaking)."

"Standard fare for a 4yo. You never really know until they're tested in all-aged company........but Defi looks more than a cut above an average juvenile (to these rheumy eyes anyway), and I have high-hopes for him."

".....the division isn't chock-full of superstars, and even if he (Faugheen) returns a stone worse horse, there's probably only Buveur D'Air you would say is categorically better than that, at present"

"All that said, you’re on the right horse as things stand, and pretty-much everything else needs to improve considerably, to take his (BDA's) crown."

"I’m quibbling anyway. Buveur an entirely representative CH winner in anyone’s book, I’d say, and definitely the one they all have to beat. "

"I can't see Defi usurping BDA; even if it is a command performance."

"* For clarity, I have Defi in a handful of early Yankees and Canadians at 8/1. Admittedly, that price doesn’t look to smart right now."


So, frankly, you can stick your green/gold-tinted specs right up your hoop. :thumbsup:










 
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It wasn't sarcasm, pal......it was exasperation.

The statement was so evidently ludicrous, any further comment would have been pointless.
 
Grasshopper said:
To help correct the above nonsense, here are some of my Quotes from this thread, re DDS:

"Buveur D'Air is a worthy favourite at this stage, but him apart, the rest of the division is weak (relatively speaking)."

"Standard fare for a 4yo. You never really know until they're tested in all-aged company........but Defi looks more than a cut above an average juvenile (to these rheumy eyes anyway), and I have high-hopes for him."

".....the division isn't chock-full of superstars, and even if he (Faugheen) returns a stone worse horse, there's probably only Buveur D'Air you would say is categorically better than that, at present"

"All that said, you’re on the right horse as things stand, and pretty-much everything else needs to improve considerably, to take his (BDA's) crown."

"I’m quibbling anyway. Buveur an entirely representative CH winner in anyone’s book, I’d say, and definitely the one they all have to beat. "

"I can't see Defi usurping BDA; even if it is a command performance."

"* For clarity, I have Defi in a handful of early Yankees and Canadians at 8/1. Admittedly, that price doesn’t look to smart right now."


So, frankly, you can stick your green/gold-tinted specs right up your hoop. :thumbsup:
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Hook, line and sinker. [emoji41]🤪


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Grasshopper said:
It wasn't sarcasm, pal......it was exasperation.

The statement was so evidently ludicrous, any further comment would have been pointless.
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Don't talk shyte man....The point I made re MTOY improving pounds every time he has run in the Champion Hurdle was a valid one.

The way you are talking he'd have finished behind The New One had he run against Faugheen which is sheer utter garbage and I am no fan of MTOY

You can stick that in your bong and smoke it:whistle:
 
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