The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Depends on how they both fare.

If BDA appears to have the best chance, Geraghty will ride, and I suspect Jonners would get the Defi ride.

If Defi looks to have the best chance, I suspect Geraghty rides him, and Fehily takes over on BDA.

I don't think Walsh has a look-in on either.
 
TNO is the first champion hurdle horse to run in this since Khyber Kim ~10 years ago, although TNO runs almost 2 stones higher than him and has been on the downgrade in the past 2 years.
Old Guard is the first since Olofi to return to the race after winning it. Olofi actually came 2nd in 2011 and the next year won it. OG is off a similar mark when he won it 2 years ago.
London Prize only raised 5 pounds for a easy win in the Elite Hurdle, still unexposed, and I can't find the last winner of the Elite to run in this.
Ivanovich G. and Defi are the first Triumph winners to take part in the race since Detroit City. IG only 3 lengths behind Arctic Fire in last festival County Hurdle off the same mark.
Chesterfield is the first Scottish Champion Hurdle winner since Court Minstrel to run in this, but CM carried top weight in this while Chesterfield only has 10-11 to contend with.
Tigris River the first Galway Hurdle winner to take part in this and with the record of Irish handicappers at Chelt(70% h-cap winners this last festival) it wouldn't surprise anyone if the british handicappers were fooled once again.

This might be the most competitive Greatwood Hurdle ever. Defi needs to be a 165+ horse to win and needs to show it on season debut at only 4yo, almost a CH winner task and anything lower than 12/1 is not worth the trouble. I'll go with Amour de Nuit at 25s, the ground will suit and Nicholls thinks a fast pace will help which is `guaranteed`..
 
I'm all-in on Defi.

As I alluded to in last season's Novice Hurdler thread, he is no ordinary juvenile, and a handicap-mark of 157 looks on the lenient side. The only time the words "impressive", "easily", "very readily", "not extended" or "comfortably" were missing from Defi's race comments last season, were those after the Triumph Hurdle, where it simply stated "ran on strongly to go clear". This horse hasn't stopped improving yet.

I agree that he will need to run to a higher-mark than 157 to win this - the question is whether or not he is capable of doing so.

First of all, he needs to run his race, and I've no concerns whatsoever on that front. He is as genuine as they come, seems to thrive for being on the racecourse, and has a very straight-forward and mature attitude, given his age.

As far as fitness is concerned, I can't imagine Hobbs would send Defi here in any way under-cooked. It is a tough enough race for a juvenile, let alone one being asked to cart near-enough top-weight, for the first time against experienced handicappers. He wouldn't want to risk souring the horse, I don't think, and I expect him to be match-ready. There are absolutely no worries about the trip, track or ground, and with a fast-pace assured, he will get the kind of hold-up ride he wants.

The positives far out-weigh the negatives for me, and whilst I missed the price (figured he was a cert to be kept back for the Bula), I went in last night at 6/1. He has everything in his favour, and it will be a major disappointment if he doesn't win.
 
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Jenkins is the horse here for me in the Greatwood and I took some of the 10s over the weekend. Work is very good at home and even in schooling he’s a different animal to last year according to my source in the yard who gave me a very positive report. Win this and the 66/1 for the champion hurdle is gone so along with my many Buveur bets the 66/1 is my ew angle for the champion hurdle.

He might have had an ordinary year last year but they’ve addressed a few issues and Bags Groove, the ill fated Captain Forez and Pingshou have all advertised his Newbury win this time last year quite well . If he could win that beating a subsequent grade 1 winner and a horse who finished 2nd to Finnians Oscar in another G1 running as what Henderson yesterday described as ‘awful’ last year he’s a very decent animal indeed.



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Defi's price is crashing through the floor this morning.

No bigger than 5/1 and into 7/2 in places.
 
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I reckon the plan for Defi is not seeing another racecourse before the big one.

1. The Greatwood 2. The International 3.The Champion Hurdle


He will need to be in the same class as Sizing Europe was when he won this off 11st6bs

He must be the biggest certainty in history of this mark had he 157 run in the same Greatwood as Sizing Europe 137 he would have been allotted 12st12lbs :0)
 
He might be the rightful winner on form, but this is a handicap. Anyone hammering Defi at these prices is not thinking straight! Money for Mohaayed just keeps coming.
 
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Hobbs said: "In discussing the situation with connections it has been decided maybe the hurdle at Ascot will be a more favourable first run of the season"

Like I suspected, it would've been a tremendous task for a juvenile to take on the most competitive field this race has ever assembled. Better to take things slowly towards the CH, rather than break him fto.
 
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It makes sense. Much more favourable to start at Ascot rather than give lumps of weight away Sunday. He’s still a young horse and it would be a huge ask to give weight to some very decent, potentially top class, animals.

Granted they shouldn’t have announced their intention to run. I’d imagine a lot of people got stung.


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