The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Double J said:
Other than his Supreme second, he’s always been second/third string of Mullins runners in each of 3 other runs at the festival as well.
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And each time he has finished ahead of all the other Mullins runners.
Just needs a bit of luck..small mistakes have cost him two nice prizes....
 
Maxbet said:
And each time he has finished ahead of all the other Mullins runners.
Just needs a bit of luck..small mistakes have cost him two nice prizes....
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I seriously wouldn’t rule him out of a Gold Cup based on his last run. Jockey booking is going to be vital, but I genuinely think it’ll be Patrick on board in the Gold Cup.
He certainly has place claims.

Could be Ryanair though, who knows what Mullins will do.
 
Double J said:
I seriously wouldn’t rule him out of a Gold Cup based on his last run. Jockey booking is going to be vital, but I genuinely think it’ll be Patrick on board in the Gold Cup.
He certainly has place claims.

Could be Ryanair though, who knows what Mullins will do.
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Amateurs aren't allowed to ride in the UK at the moment, which would rule Patrick out
 
I really liked his Leop run at xmas

A horse doesn't need to win a race to come out of it promising

Melon goes well at Cheltenham, has had his first outing over 3miles and is a live contender
 
Royale Pagaille up 10lbs for Saturday to 166.

His OR this season starting with his first run:

135
140
156
166

Without access [yet] to the handicapper's blog I don't know if he has allowed for ease of victory in that hike. I reckon 10lbs for a 16 lengths win would be fairly lenient ordinarily.

On those ORs that's a 10lbs' improvement over a four week period. It's seven weeks to the Gold Cold Cup. What if he improves just another 10lbs in that time?

It's kind of fairytale stuff. Just a shame it hasn't happened to an ordinary couple of NH enthusiasts. That would make it a nicer story.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Royale Pagaille up 10lbs for Saturday to 166.

His OR this season starting with his first run:

135
140
156
166

Without access [yet] to the handicapper's blog I don't know if he has allowed for ease of victory in that hike. I reckon 10lbs for a 16 lengths win would be fairly lenient ordinarily.

On those ORs that's a 10lbs' improvement over a four week period. It's seven weeks to the Gold Cold Cup. What if he improves just another 10lbs in that time?

It's kind of fairytale stuff. Just a shame it hasn't happened to an ordinary couple of NH enthusiasts. That would make it a nicer story.
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Timeform’s take on it:

Royale Pagaille's 16-length win off a BHA mark of 156 in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock on Saturday has set a poser for connections and handicappers alike.
The Venetia Williams-trained Royale Pagaille may still be a novice, but the Cheltenham Gold Cup – for which he was cut to 12/1 from 50/1 – must now come under consideration on the back of what was a visually impressive display.
The exact merit of the performance is hard to pin down as two of Royale Pagaille's most interesting rivals departed before the race took shape, while history has shown it can be a mistake to get carried away with wide-margin wins in the Haydock mud. A cautious view of the performance has, therefore, been taken, but it's still difficult to escape the conclusion that Royale Pagaille (163p from 158p) is a progressive and high-class chaser who deserves a shot at races at the highest level, be that in novice or open company.
His rating of 163p places him behind only Shishkin (165P) in the novice division, and would be good enough to win a typical renewal of the Festival Novices' Chase (formerly the RSA Chase).
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's kind of fairytale stuff. Just a shame it hasn't happened to an ordinary couple of NH enthusiasts. That would make it a nicer story.
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I kind of think if the owners were different he''d be going for the RSA.

He's a danger for sure and whilst I'm firmly in the Minella Indo camp (will be my biggest winner ever now thanks to live multis with Sottsass and Tyrell Hatton from this past weekend) it's looking fairly open and I fear his stablemate and Santini most. I actually think Al Boum Photo is a place lay. I expect regression, the sort that happened to Best Mate over his Gold Cup career where his 3rd win was much much worse than his first.
 
Yes, Granger. Pleased for Venetia and Deutsch.

In terms of the horse, I mentioned Gloria Victis the other day.

In terms of ratings, it's more like Teeton Mill. Started the season off 135, won the Hennessy by 15 lengths off 139, won the King George when rated 'just 156', went up to 171 and won the Ascot Chase easing down at 6/4. Went off 7/2 for the Gold Cup (won by See More Business) but pulled up lame and never raced again.

Let's hope the future is brighter for Royale Pagaille win or lose in the Gold Cup.
 
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Timeform's take on him is very similar to mine.

He's progressed so quickly through the handicap by beating an okay bunch at Ascot - I'm still struggling to believe Cap Du Nord has gone from a 108 rated hurdler, reaching a similar level over fences in his first two seasons before suddenly becoming a mid 140s rated chaser, which he'll need to be to win Saturday's race. His jumping wasn't great that day either.

He backed that up in what is the worst Peter Marsh I can ever remember and we often see exaggerated winning distances in Heavy ground at Haydock.

That said, he's been visually impressive and his rating is official so who knows, and it's not like we have a particularly strong set of staying chasers this year. And betting interest aside, I would love to see it happen.

But I just cannot handle the fact that his price - on the back of those two wins - is shorter in some places than horses such as Minella Indo, A Plus Tard and even Santini so I will be totally against him if he runs in the Gold Cup and be thankful that he'll be consuming c. 10% of the book. If he proves me wrong then so be it.
 
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wilsonl said:
But I just cannot handle the fact that his price - on the back of those two wins - is shorter in some places than horses such as Minella Indo, A Plus Tard and even Santini so I will be totally against him if he runs in the Gold Cup and be thankful that he'll be consuming c. 10% of the book. If he proves me wrong then so be it.
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Entirely understandable, wilsonl, and I haven't advocated backing him at the price. I was very clever in getting Minella Indo onside back in early December. At 7/1 :mad:

Swings and roundabouts this game.
 
I don't have an answer to this myself by the way but am trying to frame in my head what kind of horse Royale Pagaille is?

What horse profile from the last decade does he most resemble and by default how does he fare in the gold cup?
 
Hard to say because RP is a novice so maybe Djakadam - also for the Riccis - back in 2015?

He was a lumped on but ultimately well-beaten 5/1f for the 2014 Hennessy off 142 but won the Thyestes off 145, for which he went up to 162 and ran second to [the novice] Coneygree at 10/1.

After a couple of attempts at the Gold Cup Ruby eventually admitted the horse didn't truly stay the trip at Cheltenham.

Sizing John also went from about 150 as a second-season chaser to winning the Gold Cup rated 167 but didn't come along via handicaps.
 
With an improving horse you also need to ask whether the original mark was ever right. Dreal Deal was running off 87 back in March and is now rated 145 (after going up only 4 lbs, by the way, for that dramatic win in the Grade 2 race the other day). I think in his case there is more to come.

What causes a horse to improve hand over fist like this? Probably that they weren't being trained right to start off with and once that issue is addressed they can make up for lost time.
 
yeah, in all the talk about Dreal Deal improving from 85 etc. The point he was gambled into 6/4 was that he wasn't an 85 horse. Whether they thought he was a 145 horse is doubtful, but he looked like a different species to those he beat. Its possible that he could have been a 120 horse running off 85 that day.
 
granger said:
I don't have an answer to this myself by the way but am trying to frame in my head what kind of horse Royale Pagaille is?

What horse profile from the last decade does he most resemble and by default how does he fare in the gold cup?
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Total Recall
 
While he doesn't [yet - might end up supplemented] have a Gold Cup entry, I've backed Yala Enki to cause a minor upset on Saturday.

I have gone high with the Welsh National form and on that basis and in receipt of 6lbs from horses who are being trained with one day in mind and/or who might be over the hill, maybe he shouldn't be 14/1 for this.

He's proved he's as hard as nails, goes in the ground, is bang in form and seems to be thriving on his busy regime. He's likely to be ridden prominently and we can rely on Bryony Frost to get him into a rhythm. He might just end up outclassed but if he's over last week's race he's probably the only one that can be relied on to run his race. It's easy to understand why they're taking this race in.

Bristol De Mai is favourite, rated 169 on ORs. Yala is rated 161 but gets 6lbs. Should they really be 11/4 and 14/1 respectively?
 
Desert Orchid said:
While he doesn't [yet - might end up supplemented] have a Gold Cup entry, I've backed Yala Enki to cause a minor upset on Saturday.

I have gone high with the Welsh National form and on that basis and in receipt of 6lbs from horses who are being trained with one day in mind and/or who might be over the hill, maybe he shouldn't be 14/1 for this.

He's proved he's as hard as nails, goes in the ground, is bang in form and seems to be thriving on his busy regime. He's likely to be ridden prominently and we can rely on Bryony Frost to get him into a rhythm. He might just end up outclassed but if he's over last week's race he's probably the only one that can be relied on to run his race. It's easy to understand why they're taking this race in.

Bristol De Mai is favourite, rated 169 on ORs. Yala is rated 161 but gets 6lbs. Should they really be 11/4 and 14/1 respectively?
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Surely Yala Enki wont run?
 
If he doesn't run on Saturday, no harm done since the betting is based on the final decs but BF is jocked up in the card.

More chance of the meeting being called off.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have gone high with Yala Enki on the Welsh National form, and on that basis and in receipt of 6lbs from horses who are being trained with one day in mind and/or who might be over the hill, maybe he shouldn't be 14/1 for this.
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I have the same opinion on this, his WN run was incredible.....
 
He won't have Bryony if he goes for the GC though? I don't see why he shouldn't run though? Nothing to lose, if ground comes up mega soft, would have a great chance of very least a place.
 
G-G said:
He won't have Bryony if he goes for the GC though? I don't see why he shouldn't run though? Nothing to lose, if ground comes up mega soft, would have a great chance of very least a place.
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Not sure if our wires are crossed G-G?

He isn't entered for the GC (yet). Or do you think Bryony might be the reason he isn't entered?

If Saturday goes ahead I do think he has a very sound chance of at least placing, especially with the dead eight.
 
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