The Road to the Grand National 2018

Diamond Geezer said:
Mmm....... only one of the first 15 home last year carried over 11st (and that was only by 1lb.)and the previous year 7 of first 8 carried between 10st 5lb and 10st 9lb. Mind you the exception was Many Clouds.
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Yeah I usually ignore those towards the top but they’re usually made up of classier types on the downgrade or with little other option. A few up there this year make much more appeal and appear to have been campaigned specifically for the race. I’d be all over American if it came up soft.


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I don't believe he is rigging the weights.

It's a unique race and he's trying to give them an equal chance in the light of the effect of carrying weight.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't believe he is rigging the weights.

It's a unique race and he's trying to give them an equal chance in the light of the effect of carrying weight.
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He can't give the horses that have been waiting for the weights to come out, the one's that we all know, have more ability than they have shown; a bigger weight. So he adjusts the top weighted honest horses according to what he (Smith) as a very good assessor, perceives as fair....
Two wrongs don't make it right!
 
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No, they don't, but I don't believe that's his rationale.

Statistically higher weights do best in most handicaps but not in the National.

There's a reason for that.

Sure he wants to tempt connections into running but why are connections reluctant to run in the first place?
 
Desert Orchid said:
No, they don't, but I don't believe that's his rationale.
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Weight has an exponential increase in effect the further one travels.

When Mat Chapman suggested to Phil Smith that he's adjusting the top weights to counter balance the sneaky trainers; he wouldn't directly deny it, he worded it to be ambiguous in its interpretation, but smiled at Chapman.
 
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The only one not entered at Aintree wins. Bizarre race. Absolute carnage.

Was that really the prep Blaklion needed? He was absolutely legless.


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TheBear said:
The only one not entered at Aintree wins. Bizarre race. Absolute carnage.

Was that really the prep Blaklion needed? He was absolutely legless.


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That was my immediate thought. Anyone who has backed the horse for the Gold Cup can’t be feeling too chuffed, and even those who have backed him for the National, are probably a bit miffed. He barely clambered over the last today, and has had a proper hard race.
 
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Just looking at the ante-post market it looks like, at best prices, it's 14/1 the field and 20/1 bar two.

On top of that, you can rule out (imvho) at least two of the market leaders (Blaklion and Definitly Red) as having no chance of winning.

Surely there has to be value in the market.

I'm reasonably happy with my ante-post bets so far:

Last Samuri 40/1 (taken in December), now best at 20/1
Noble Endeavor 50/1 (a fortnight ago), now 33/1
I Just Know 100/1 (a fortnight ago), now 50/1 (discounting the single joke firm still showing 100/1)

I still haven't checked out the last one there. I took it because Paul Kealy put it up the day the weights were announced and I presumed it would more than halve in price as a result, giving me the possibility of taking a position on it.

But I can't help thinking there must be a few others in there with huge chances.
 
I've decided i'm probably barking up the wrong tree with Thunder And Roses, I'm now looking at Captain Redbeard. He's improved a lot in his last two runs at Haydock. Those performances have seen his mark increase enough to stand a chance of making the cut. He's currently 59 on the list. If anyone can offer opinions on his chances of making the cut, it'd be appreciated.

He might be a better horse on testing going, but who knows, he may get this. Surely if he were with a Nicholls or Twiston Davies he'd be half his current price. 100/1 is an insult, although I'd rather take 66/1with Betfred NRNB, given it will be in the lap of the gods whether he'll make the cut.
 
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