The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

How much of a difference it made, who knows. She has run pretty well enough so far in her two runs this season considering extremes of ground, and the trip.

Ground/trip/pace should always be considered before discarding a horse in future races. Some to quick to do so.
Whether you have had a bet on a race shouldn't alter your analysis. Though I'm sure it does happen.
 
Having more than once pulled a muscle (thigh, calf, back, shoulder, you name it) playing football, it is almost impossible to run let alone run within 10lbs of your best with a pulled muscle.

It might be a paraphrasing of different kind of physical problem but I would still be okay about forgiving Treve her Ascot run.

I saw STM on C4 today for the first time. Bear in mind the German Derby winner is usually decent enough. Take out the winner and what kind of ratings would be looking at for the next bunch home?

Did the jockey's decision to race wide result in his finding better ground? Would such a move be wise in a race like the Arc where the track must be at least twice as wide as the other day?

I don't plan to get too involved in the value of the form or the argument about its worth. I'll worry about that when STM races here or in the Arc or whatever.
 
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I think yesterday we all got a lesson on how wide the canyon between grades can be when Arabian Spring after being backed off the boards was made to look ordinary by Cavalryman and co.

I am happy to stand up and be counted and say Sea The Moon will not win the Arc.

I have just watched his 3 races. In one race he came out the stalls and nearly knocked the horse to his left over. Near the finish when he passed a horse on his left he immediately started going left. In his next race he was on the rail to his right and leading half way up the straight but when asked to quicken he didn't just drift left he deliberately ran to the left.

Andreas Helfenbein wasn't looking for better ground in the German Derby he was looking for the rail to keep him straight. If he did get better ground it is purely coincidental.

He has led in all 3 races and had things his own way up front.

The chances he'll be allowed to dictate pace and have things his own way in the Arc must be slim.

Last year Treve wasn't even asked to go forward before the home turn she was traveling so strongly she pulled herself there still on the bridle and her jockey virtually had no choice but to go for it. She injected so much pace into the race so quickly nothing could live with her.

Sea the Moon would be a sitting duck for her and a few others IMO

If Sea the Moon decides to go left on the home turn at the Hippodrome or they plan to try that they could end up on the Route Des Tribune and if he makes it across there he'll end up on a barge on his way to Deauville. Has any jockey ever employed such tactics in the Arc?

Joking aside with Sea the Moon you have to ask yourself........would you run him in the Arc? He's going left for a reason and usually it's because they are feeling something which makes it very difficult to correct.

I know if he were mines the last place on earth I would run him is in the Arc he'd be heading straight to Santa Anita which is exactly where they should send him. The place would suit his style of running right down to the ground. Strong front runner prefers to go left....he'd have a great chance.

If I was going to back him in the Arc I would have to make damn sure they were running him..........If they have half a brain they wont.
 
Fist, if you are going to belabor us with these tomes at least get your facts right. A. Helfenbein did not ride him in the German Derby Christophe Soumillon did. Yes they did decide to go for the rail in part to counter his tendency to drift but also because the ground near the rail is the place to be when it gets softer in Hamburg. It's all fine and well to say he won't win the Arc, hardly a risky statement but to simply exclude him from the more viable contenders based on your rather dodgy analysis is hilarious.

Personally I have no idea today who is going to win the Arc and I would not take the 7/1 currently available but Soumi did state unequivocally after the race that this is a serious grp.1 horse no doubts in his mind whatsoever. A quick examination of the figures on the day back it up. He also said that the horse was still maturing and the drift tendency was nowhere near as pronounced as the race made it seem. You look at this horse's bloodlines and it is as good as it gets. Out of the hottest sire on the planet and a multiple derby winner producing mare.

Rest assured connections won't be losing any sleep over your advice to not run him there. And if they decide to run it won't be for having half a brain either.
 
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Tanlic said:
I think yesterday we all got a lesson on how wide the canyon between grades can be when Arabian Spring after being backed off the boards was made to look ordinary by Cavalryman and co.
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Amazing comparison. A handicapper (called Arab Spring by the way) who won very well at Royal Ascot in a well run race gets beat in a very muddling Group 2 race at Newmarket and the gulf between the grades is wide. Hardly his true running was it?

Also not sure what your point is, the German Derby is a Group One....
 
Tanlic said:
The German 200 Guineas you mean? The form of that race isn't worth a pinch of salt by European standards.

Actually we both need a slap for bringing Wild Cief into the equation. He has been stuffed 3 times and when you start going that far back in the form book we're grasping for straws to prove our points.
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The not worth a pinch of salt German 2000 Guineas winner handles Noble Mission easily in a grp.1.
 
german guineas winner posting 118 in my figures
the 4th today beaten in the german derby by 20 lengths,

in normal circunnstances the arc is run for me, sea The Moon is the best horse in Europe for me by a good margin
 
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Sea The Moon should be clear fav for this now although still suspect he'll be given a very soft prep in Baden Baden and he could ease off the back of that run.
 
What does Taghrooda have to do to make people say she's a really good filly?
Only reason I can see for not being keen on her for the Arc is that she won't run.
 
She's an excellent filly. But running in the King George in late July as well as the Oaks mean you are asking such a young horse to peak three times as a 3yo - tough ask. At the price you'd also have to have ground concerns
 
The only thing that prevented me from taking the 10s straight after Sea The Moon's win in the German derby was the way Soumillon allowed him to tack all the way over to the stands side rail.

He may have partly been aiming for better ground but given the way the horse had drifted left at Cologne the time before he was surely also allowing for the fact that he could do it again.

Moving over to the stands side at Longchamp won't be an option and any ground you give away to horses like Treve and Taghrooda could be costly.

He's still the most likely winner for me and in hindsight the 10s was worth the risk but that has to remain a concern.
 
unoriginal but sea the moon & taghrooda are the one's id have on my mind at the moment. doesn't seem to be anything coming out of the woodwork in france & i don't think australia will turn up to this unless it turns out to be quick ground.

not sure there's a 4+ year old around good enough to break the usual trend. gold ship possibly interesting at a price.
 
Can't see why you'd have ground concerns about Taghrooda, Euro. I'd say the ground on the round course Saturday was on the soft side of good, and the Arc wouldn't often be much worse than that, comparatively.
Faster ground might be more of a concern for the German horse, in that it would make the Arc less of a test. Longchamp isn't a stiff track anyway, and he wasn't near as impressive over 11f on his penultimate start,
 
Lets also remember that Longchamp is just as susceptible to quick ground as it is to soft in October.

Bago, Danedream, Rail Link & Sea The Stars basically won on Good to Firm ground by our description. Zarkava, Dylan Thomas and Hurricane Run were probably good ground too (maybe slow side of good for Zarkava).
 
there was no soft in the ground on KG day..they ran a stiff 12f in 148 and change..the 6th fastest time in 28 years..you don't do that with give in the ground

even allowing for the round course being slower it timed out at Good..and at the business end in the straight where it matters it was Good edging towards G/F

Taghrooda not seen any slow ground there
 
It was a different track for 18 of those 28 years, EC., and you'd be hard pushed to recall a more strongly run race during the past decade.
Turftrax had the g/s at 7.2 on the round course at 12 noon Saturday, the remainder c8.6, and I'd stick with my view, rather than that of your stopwatch.
 
reet hard said:
It was a different track for 18 of those 28 years, EC., and you'd be hard pushed to recall a more strongly run race during the past decade.
Turftrax had the g/s at 7.2 on the round course at 12 noon Saturday, the remainder c8.6, and I'd stick with my view, rather than that of your stopwatch.
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the round course times are pretty similar even after changes...its still uphill all the way from Swinley bottom last time i looked

i didn't need a stopwatch?..its timed officially...its in the Racing Post;)...so if you can explain a 12f 148 seconds at a track you describe as being very very stiff..then fair play to you..and being a true run race doesn't explain it..many KG's are truly run..this one in the fastest six for donkeys years...maybe all the others were run on heavy ground possibly;)
 
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Same round course, but a much less accentuated bend into the straight, 1/2f shorter straight, and the adverse camber taken out.
 
sunybay; she is a good ground fillie.[/QUOTE said:
Is that not the case with most of Sea The Stars progeny, including Sea The Moon?
In my book, if there is cut in the ground on Arc day, both will be in trouble.
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reet hard said:
Same round course, but a much less accentuated bend into the straight, 1/2f shorter straight, and the adverse camber taken out.
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the same course Novellist won on though?..he won 144+sec on ground that is a firm as you will ever see at ascot in a truly run race....do you know the time difference between GS and Firm over 12f?...its a bit more than 4 seconds over 12f

Turftrax gave Good anyway..don't know why i am bothering here..i seen the map....2f gs...so it was a bit damp in swinley bottom..low part of track..its hardly going to affect horses much at that point in the race to make the whole race look like its been run on GS ground

think you splitting hairs Reet
 
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