The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

sunybay said:
german guineas winner posting 118 in my figures
the 4th today beaten in the german derby by 20 lengths,

in normal circunnstances the arc is run for me, sea The Moon is the best horse in Europe for me by a good margin
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LBM said:
Is that not the case with most of Sea The Stars progeny, including Sea The Moon?
In my book, if there is cut in the ground on Arc day, both will be in trouble.
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Dam family goes on soft by Monsun
Has won on soft. Heavy ground a doubt but on soft no problem.
 
Gold Ship will be 3pounds better off in October and surely the trip will see him to better effect as well. Nothing against Harp Star of course but I want something at a big price because those at the top of the market are either too short (the German) or basically have zero chance (Treve, Taghrooda and Australia)
 
I'm starting to think there may have been an overreaction to Taghrooda's default LTO in terms of her chances in this.

Tapestry was a decent juvenile miler, bred to go further, who didn't get the best of runs in the 1,000 and still wasn't disgraced. Her run in the Irish Oaks was remarkable in hindsight given that JOB basically had no saddle for the majority of the race.

So an unlucky 1 from 2 over 12f and time may tell that she's a top class middle distance filly and if so then the York form, with daylight between the front two and the third, could yet be top drawer.

She'll be getting all the allowances and there are question marks about those in front of her in the market; Sea The Moon (wellbeing/participation if the rumours are to be believed), Treve (wellbeing since injury & below par Ascot effort), Australia (participation) & Just A Way (trip).

For me, if Just A Way stays he wins but this is a tough race to put that to the test and I don't see any real chinks in Taghrooda. I don't buy into the fact that she was over the top at York and 10/1 is a decent price for her to emulate her sire.

Of course, the draw is yet to come but I can't see her being any bigger on the day, especially if any of the slight doubts are scratched.
 
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I'm starting to think there may have been an overreaction to Taghrooda's default LTO in terms of her chances in this.

Tapestry was a decent juvenile miler, bred to go further, who didn't get the best of runs in the 1,000 and still wasn't disgraced. Her run in the Irish Oaks was remarkable in hindsight given that JOB basically had no saddle for the majority of the race.

So an unlucky 1 from 2 over 12f and time may tell that she's a top class middle distance filly and if so then the York form, with daylight between the front two and the third, could yet be top drawer.
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I see your point, but is there a reason why Tapestry herself, perhaps with Ryan Moore riding, doesn't offer better value at 14/1 for the Arc than Taghrooda at 10/1?
 
I completely agree Grey but for some reason I thought she was more likely to head for Champions day with an entry in the Fillies & Mares, especially with the only other realistic APOB entries looking like they need to find something. Chicquita off the track for a year and half - albeit she holds entries prior to that - and Venus De Milo proving disappointing and finishing well behind Tapestry at York.

Can't remember what I read to concretely form the conclusion though :confused:

If Tapestry did turn up she wouldn't be the 14/1 that she is right now that's for sure.
 
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Tapestry needs a sound surface so backing antepost for the Arc would be dangerous. Highly unlikely to go to Champions day as ground would most likely be against her. America has been mooted.
 
I think Tagroohda wasn't totally suited to the York race..firstly pace wise it wasn't a solid pace...one that tested stamina thoroughly..probably just a bit less than even pace. On top of that the flat track may also not have played to her strengths..all her wins have been on tracks with a rising finish.

I personally think she is very good ..but i would only back her on a track with a climb to the finish..so Arc would be a no no.
 
you mean KG..i think that was a solid race tbh..those coming out of it are running poorly because it took a lot out of them imo..give it a bit more time and it will look very good i think

on form ratings its solid..on time it was solid..probably best race of the season for me.
 
Ectot being lined up for the Prix Niel with a view to the Arc. Not short of boot either and could be an interesting player if he stays.
 
I find that surprising Frankel He has bags of speed and beat that Japanese horse twice that put Noozhoh Canarias in his place. Get's a mile well even on heavy ground but 8f to 12f is a huge leap.

Keeps winning so I suppose no harm in having a go and they always have the Champion Stakes as an alternative if he doesn't get the 12f.

As we know AOB has already ruled Australia out of the Arc despite which the bookies will still take your money.....da swines.

More I look at it the more I think Treve is nailed on for a repeat if his biggest rival is the grossly overrated Sea the Moon.

Talking about horses getting the trip:-

The news from John Gosden that Kingsman may be stepped up in trip next season could lead to the biggest day in racing since Noah filled the Arc. Australia V Kingman
 
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Agree about the trip. Certainly not guaranteed in my view. Though if he rocked up at Ascot then that would be interesting.
I wouldn't be too quick to rule out STM, looks pretty good imo. Treve will have her knockers and have valid points, the Vermeille will tell us more.

Aussie being retired so clash will never happen over 10f even if Kingman did stay in training. Aussie would wipe the floor with him over that trip.
 
Ectot looks bred to stay and I'm surprised he hasn't been tried over more than 8f. Worth a shot at 50s with B365 IMHO


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viking said:
Ectot looks bred to stay and I'm surprised he hasn't been tried over more than 8f. Worth a shot at 50s with B365 IMHO


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I've been waiting for this horse all season but must have been injured. 12f looks no problem on breeding, if that's his current price and he's due to run in the Niel I think I'll have a few quid on now.
 
Avenir Certain is a certainty in the Arc. 12/1? It's time to bet like men.
 
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SlimChance said:
Avenir Certain is a certainty in the Arc. 12/1? It's time to bet like men.
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I was toying with backing her the other day but after watching all her races back I'm pretty sure she'll prove best over 1m-10f. Fillies have been dominating in recent years and she is a player but I'd be keeping my dick in my pants for now.
 
According to Harry Sweeney in Irish Field the Japanese raiders will not ship to France until Sept 20 and run without a French prep race unlike other years when they traveled a month earlier and ran in Prix Foy or Niel.
The fine tuning continues.
 
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