The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

The best I can remember was Milan when he finished 5th in 2001 after pissing up at Doncaster. He went off 8/1 that day, probably due to the holding ground, but in hindsight it was a very good run in a good Arc and he was a genuine 125 horse.

Leading Light, Scorpion, Sixties Icon, Masked Marvel have all been completely ran over at Longchamp and there is no reason to suggest Kingston Hill will be any different.
 
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Don't think a modern day Arc is unsuited to staying type horses. Without always winning there have been some good attempts - Alleged, Ardross, User Friendly, Sun Princess, Snurge, Marienbard! et al.,
KH does not convince as a true 1m6f horse, either.

Chiquita is 130/1 on Betfair and 20/1 with Ladbrokes. If it looks a soft race they've got Australia and she goes for the Vermeille, otherwise she might be their fall back.
 
edgt said:
Wait for the Sunybay report before condemning Sea The Moon.
He has four weeks to get over his run and improve.
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Just back form Baden Baden

great racecourse and atmosphere, one to be at least one in your life.

it was quite a hot day
it looked like gs ground for me.

Lucky Lion was quite hot and had lost any chance just before going to the stalls
Ivanhowe looked really well in the paddock and looks a proper horse.

Sea the Moon, quite relaxed in the preparade and in the paddock, looked not fully fit, blowing quite hard after the race in weights enclosure and the face of the trainer was not like the one really sad or disappointed,

Maybe the style of the race didnt suit but there could be some reasons for the defeat

1. He is not as good as I thought
2. He was not fully fit
3. A mix of the first 2
4. When a horse runs a superlative race , it is very likely he is not the same one in his next one, Hawk Wing after the Lockinge, Frankel after the Guineas, Royal Anthem after the Interantional, Daylami after the irish Champion, dubai Millenium not running again after the P of Wales, Helissio after the Arc, Overdose after the italy race, Peintre Celebre not running aftre the arc win, Doyen after the King George......sometimes feeling the race and others overconfindence of the trainers not having them fully fit.


I rate the winner 117+, and looks a serious horse,
Sea The moon posted only a 112/113 and there should be plenty of improvement, he improved a lot after the prep race in the German Derby
it is quite likely he is not a 140 but could be a 130 still and I dont rate him as a certantie after this run for the Arc but it is still the most likely winer of the race at the moment, unless something change my mind next weekend.
 
He has been riding so part time recently it is not a surprise I suspect she feels he isn't sharp enough yet it is better to go for the older man in Jarnet ! - certainly a shocker from Dettori on Shagah on Saturday .

For all Harry Herbert's warm words will Dettori survive the season for Al Shaqab ?

As the vast majority of their UK horses are with Hannon I would not be surprised if they retained someone in France and let Hughes ride the Hannon horses .
 
Dettori is not the one of old times but is still a better jockey than jarnet was at his best and is Now too old, this is something really bizarre.
 
Many thanks Sunybay.
Very comprehensive accouint.
Ivanhoe if he can put two good runs back to back may be interesting ew.
Gutted for Frankie I must admit.
He has the magic on the big day that few jockeys have.
Jarnet to his credit is dependable and after years of relative anonymity is back these past few years so all credit to him.
Flat jockeys are rarely too old as wisdom counts for a lot especially on extremes of going.
 
viking said:
Ectot looks bred to stay and I'm surprised he hasn't been tried over more than 8f. Worth a shot at 50s with B365 IMHO


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In to 25s. Is he Pricewise?


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My God: Treve, Taghrooda, Avenir Certain, Just a Way and Australia. Can there ever have been an Arc where less than a month out not a one of the top five in the market can be sensibly fancied at the prices. If Treve had never existed Avenir Certain would be 20s.
 
Euronymous said:
My God: Treve, Taghrooda, Avenir Certain, Just a Way and Australia. Can there ever have been an Arc where less than a month out not a one of the top five in the market can be sensibly fancied at the prices. If Treve had never existed Avenir Certain would be 20s.
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Really? She's won the Guineas and the Oaks as well as winning her prep for this. She's got a Zarkavaesque profile, I think she might go off fav on the day on the nanny.

Agree on the others though, all horrid prices.
 
Bit harsh on AC, she is a classy filly. One I certainly would not wanna be against, even though I have a nagging doubt when she hits the one pole.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Really? She's won the Guineas and the Oaks as well as winning her prep for this. She's got a Zarkavaesque profile, I think she might go off fav on the day on the nanny.

Agree on the others though, all horrid prices.
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Form doesn't stack up for me and her pedigree screams non stayer. Zarkava was out of a Kahyasi mare.
 
Not sure she needs to stay as well as she might do in other years to be honest. The 3yo filly to be with is undoubtedly Harp Star though.
 
There are a few hints in Avenir Certain's pedigree to suggest that she will stay.

Le Havre has sired a few stayers in his short stud career. Not least Auvray (3yo), who won a G3 at Longchamp over 1m7f at the weekend.

And although her dam operated at around a mile, go back in the family and you see horses like Blue Monday, Warrsan and Luso.

Le Havre himself may well have stayed 1m4f, but never got the chance to show it.

All said, I would say that Avenir Certain is probably best at 1m2f, but I think she is more likely to stay than some of the other horses in the race.

Like Ectot for instance (who I also like).
 
Ectot looks far to short for the Prix Niel tomorrow with the assumption he'll get the trip. Plus the fact he's been off for a while.
 
birdsnest said:
Don't think a modern day Arc is unsuited to staying type horses. Without always winning there have been some good attempts - Alleged, Ardross, User Friendly, Sun Princess, Snurge, Marienbard! et al.,
KH does not convince as a true 1m6f horse, either.

Chiquita is 130/1 on Betfair and 20/1 with Ladbrokes. If it looks a soft race they've got Australia and she goes for the Vermeille, otherwise she might be their fall back.
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Not sure Alleged was a stayer - He didn't get home in the Leger . Piggott said afterwards they were all confident he would stay after murdering Hot Grove from the front in the Voltigeur but that he would have beaten Dunfermline had he ridden a more patient race . Though with Alleged winning and Dunfermline being fourth in the Arc that was one hell of a Leger .

Ardross might have won two Arcs but for being drawn in the car park !
 
A bit of a sop I suppose to Frankie the ride on Ruler of the World but considering that horse's great relationship with Ryan Moore rather odd not to use him on the horse ?
 
One thing for sure is that they wanna skip the Arc with ROTW and head straight for the Champion.
 
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