The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

i'm think Gold Ship might reverse the form with it over 12f....i'll probably go for gold ship if ground is suitable..best chance japs have had with these this year
 
She only got beat over 12 because she got an appalling ride, should have won easily.

Cannot see Gold Ship reversing the form. She was incredibly unfit at Sapporo and many commented on how awful she looked and she beat him fair and square. Gold Ship is a nineteen carat loon as well, makes Orfevre look like Andrew Graham-Dixon. He throws the towel in at the drop of a hat.
 
Gamla Stan said:
It'll be like a road. Weather forecast to be good all week and they've not had any rain for a while either.

Slim, I seem to. Just find the Japanese contenders don't get spotted early on by the firms when they are sure fire things to go over for the race so if you ask for a price early on, you get laid overs IMO.

Only one that worries me is Avenir Certain, she looks a decent creature and can't fault her one bit. Will be saving her. Ectot a danger but can't have it at the price, beat a load of mince in the Niel.
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Annoyed I'm not on AC after putting her up on the thread at 16/1. Frenchman in the office been banging that drum for months
 
Am so sweet on Dolniya 40/1. Got Chicquita ante-post, never seen the best of her, doubts about the jockey. Ectot was my horse of the yr, didn't happen & gone off him now.
 
birdsnest said:
Am so sweet on Dolniya 40/1. Got Chicquita ante-post, never seen the best of her, doubts about the jockey. Ectot was my horse of the yr, didn't happen & gone off him now.
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Moore rumoured to be required for AOB - could be bad news for Frankie - JPOB for ROTW and Moore for Chicquita ?
 
Yes please, Moore & Chicquita. Stewards enquiry, inevitable before pay out.
Avenir - Rouget has got better fillies in his stable & they've not shown it on the track all yr, plus ground concerns. Know nothing of the Japs, they'll give up after this weekend, Gold ship only one sure to stay.
 
Rained here last night, not heavily.

Apart from one brief shower 3/4 days ago, it has been continuous warm sunshine for a few weeks now.
 
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€120k to supplememt Tapestry.

2 runs over 12f. Both G1 races inc. an unlucky 2nd in the Irish Oaks when had no run and saddle slipped and a beating of the current jolly.

If you can forgive a very poor run in the Matron 14s could be value with Moore on board.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Cannot see Gold Ship reversing the form. She was incredibly unfit at Sapporo and many commented on how awful she looked and she beat him fair and square. Gold Ship is a nineteen carat loon as well, makes Orfevre look like Andrew Graham-Dixon. He throws the towel in at the drop of a hat.
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just reading graham cunningham's article on the race on the sportinglife website

called gold ship a "hardened battler"

lol
 
I don't think it was a poor run in the Matron - she ran how a top class 12f filly who needs every yard of that trip could be expected to run over a mile - it was an idiotic decision to run her there .
 
Agreed Ardross.

I'd personally ignore the form and if people can then she shouldn't be 3 x the price of Taghrooda.

For me one of the 3yo wins and it'll come down to draw and run of the race. I'll side with the fillies as Kingston Hill surely not good enough for this and although he may have needed the run, Ectot wouldn't have won the Prix Niel if Moore hadn't had an uncharacteristic nightmare on Adelaide.

There could be an admittedly dubious formline through Adelaide & Eagle Top that have the Yorkshire Oaks 1,2 some way clear of that.
 
Adelaide wouldn't have beat Ectot. Not all losing rides are bad rides. Sometimes you have to sit and suffer. Yes he finished well but he took a while to hit his stride. He doesn't have the gears Ectot has who idled when in front. He easily held the runner up when up close.
 
If you look at the last 15 or so years the French 3yos who've won have all had form with other Group 1 animals - These have included Chiquita (Treve), Goldikova (Zarkava), Youmzain (Rail Link), Shamardal (Hurricane Run) Sulamani (Bago) and Alamshar (Dalakhani)
Ectot may qualify with this given his form with Karakontie but the Poulians is a ropey Group 1 to say the least. Avenir Certain has never beaten anything of note though.
 
Euronymous said:
If you look at the last 15 or so years the French 3yos who've won have all had form with other Group 1 animals - These have included Chiquita (Treve), Goldikova (Zarkava), Youmzain (Rail Link), Shamardal (Hurricane Run) Sulamani (Bago) and Alamshar (Dalakhani)
Ectot may qualify with this given his form with Karakontie but the Poulians is a ropey Group 1 to say the least. Avenir Certain has never beaten anything of note though.
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What it does show though Euro is that he has tactical speed. He dealt with him easily over that shorter trip. Won't be class that gets him beat imo, though maybe a hard run race.
I do take your point regards Avenir Certain but she has won with plenty spare in my view. Jockey had a horrible decision to make. He just may have picked the wrong one.
 
For what it's worth I've followed Gamla in here with Harp Star. The Arc is probably one of my favourite flat races as it means that the jumps season proper is almost upon us!

:p
 
Euronymous said:
If you look at the last 15 or so years the French 3yos who've won have all had form with other Group 1 animals - These have included Chiquita (Treve), Goldikova (Zarkava), Youmzain (Rail Link), Shamardal (Hurricane Run) Sulamani (Bago) and Alamshar (Dalakhani)
Ectot may qualify with this given his form with Karakontie but the Poulians is a ropey Group 1 to say the least. Avenir Certain has never beaten anything of note though.
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I'm playing devils advocate but Miss France? Has she achieved anything less than Chiquita had this time last year really?

Ectot hasn't really had the opportunity to given he's had two runs this year.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'm playing devils advocate but Miss France? Has she achieved anything less than Chiquita had this time last year really?

Ectot hasn't really had the opportunity to given he's had two runs this year.
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Chiquita's Irish Oaks and Diane runs are a fair bit better than Miss France's Guineas. That race has worked out terrible.

As for Ectot, yes he's unexposed, but the angle I've used is to try and cut out backing a Zambezi Sun again.
 
You gotta watch the Niel again then Frankel.

Moore didn't have much choice so it's not necessarily a criticism but he had a double handful so went out from behind the wall of horses and then immediately picked up and picked up well.

It's imposible to prove and pointless really, given that Adelaide isn't even in the Arc but IMO no way would Ectot have won that race under different circumstances.

Anyhow, Ectot could be a bit better than that but having long missed the big prices about him I'll look elsewhere rather than taking c. 6/1 and I have a feeling that at her peak Taghrooda has the best form over the distance and if that's the case then also with the allowances, Tapestry offers the value at 3 times her price based on the York form - and ignoring the possibility that Taghrooda wasn't quite right because she still pulled over 6 lengths clear of the rest.
 
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To me Adelaide only gets 11f. He finished well against Ectot in a fast time suggesting slow run 12f. Free port lux beat Adelaide in the Hocquart, but I don't rubbish that form line, these are good horses.
Think Taghrooda is over the top, ROW looks like Snow Knight with cheek pieces.
 
I don't agree that ROTW is only an average Derby winner. His run in the Champion Stakes was nudging 130. That said I would prefer Flintshire on Sunday if the ground is quick. The only time Fabre had a Niel runner primed for that gig was when Subotica beat Pistolet Bleu and Arcangues the year he wasn't in the big one.
 
Seen the race a plenty Wilson. My point really is that Ectot moved through the gears very quicky and hit the front soon enough. I don't believe Adelaide would have beaten Ectot but can see why some would think differently.
 
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