FRANKEL IS BRILLIANT, BUT HE CAN STILL BE BEATEN
FRANKEL (47) yet again strolled to an impressive win in the Sussex Stakes, once more earning the maximum speed rating I've ever awarded a horse. He looked truly sensational. But I wouldn't run away with the idea that he's unbeatable.
Racing fans in America would have said that Secretariat was unbeatable. The French would have said the same about Sea Bird II. Argentineans, Germans and South Africans probably couldn't believe that Forli, Acatenango and Sea Cottage would ever be defeated.
But all these great champions did get beaten on at least one occasion. Why should it be any different for Frankel?
Frankel's tremendous pace and huge stride has made him basically unstoppable over seven furlongs and a mile on straight courses or ones with long homestraights. But he's never run beyond a mile or even run outside Britain. And the one time he was asked to tackle Group 1 company on a track with a homestraight shorter than half a mile he very nearly got beat. This was in last year's St James's Palace Stakes where Frankel only held on by a rapidly diminishing three quarters of a length.
When he has a large enough stretch of ground to build up momentum and get rolling at top speed Frankel has proven impossible to beat over seven furlongs and a mile. But what happens when he runs over longer, especially when the homestraight is short enough to give the edge to horses that can hit full speed faster than he can?
In this regard, the race where I'd be inclined to bet against Frankel is the Champion Stakes, thanks to the homestraight at Ascot being only two and a half furlongs. But he could also be vulnerable in the Juddmonte International. In that race he looks likely to face St Nicholas Abbey, a top class horse with serious acceleration.
Aidan O'Brien has entered three horses that could act as pacemakers for St Nicholas Abbey at York. It's perfectly possible that they'll set such a gallop Frankel starts to tire, just like he did at Royal Ascot last year. This could leave him vulnerable to St Nicholas Abbey's turn of foot.
FARRH (41) finished second to Frankel in the Sussex Stakes. he was being pushed along from some way out and never had a hope of getting to the winner. This does seem to confirm that he's better over longer and with cut in the ground.
THE FUGUE CAN EMULATE RYAFAN'S US HAT TRICK
Back in 1996 Ryafan scored a hat trick of Grade 1 wins in America for John Gosden. He must surely be thinking of a repeat following the victory of THE FUGUE (39) in the Nassau Stakes.
In America turf races end up in sprint finishes just like the Nassau Stakes. They're almost always run on the kind of fast ground The Fugue clearly prefers too. This run suggests she is just as good as Ryafan too.
The way that The Fugue picked up in the sprint finish was impressive. She simply mowed down her rivals in the last furlong. Okay she swerved across a couple of them and hurt their chances. But they would not have beaten her had she kept straight.
The Fugue has now won all three times she's run on fast ground over ten furlongs or less. I don't see the point of asking her to stretch her stamina to a mile and a half or take on this year's amazingly strong crop of French fillies by staying in Europe. America surely has to be the place for her now.
I had strong doubts about the stamina of runner up TIMEPIECE (38). Although she'd won twice over ten furlongs that was in a very slow run race at Newmarket and around the tight course at Warwick where the homestraight is very short. She'd visibly run out of gas several times on tracks with longer homestraights off a decent early gallop.
It turned out that stamina wasn't a problem this time as Timepiece was allowed to set a crawl of an early gallop before gradually winding the pace up from halfway. She couldn't contain the winner's late burst but held on for second.
Back over a mile on fast ground I don't see any reason why Timepiece shouldn't end her six race losing streak soon.
Third placed WAS (37) got bumped by Izzi Top and her jockey had to stop riding as the winner swerved across the pair in the last hundred yards, but I don't think this affected her finishing position. The thing that really beat her was the cut back to ten furlongs and the slow pace. She's a proper mile and a half sort and should improve back over that distance in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Similar comments apply to the fast finishing SEA OF HEARTBREAK (37). Since stepping up to pattern company she has won two of the three times she's run twelve furlongs plus following a recent run but has lost all eight times she's tackled shorter trips.
IZZI TOP (36) probably lost two or three places due to being snatched up sharply when the winner cut across her.
It's interesting to note that the only two losses in Izzi Top's last seven starts have been on the two occasions she's tackled tight tracks. In addition the ground was probably a bit too fast for her.
PEARL SEA HAS A REAL SHOT IN LOWTHER
PEARL SEA (36) clocked a proper Group class time for a 2yo filly when making all the running to win a 6f maiden at Goodwood. She was always moving smoothly and her jockey didn't even have to move a muscle till approaching the furlong pole. She only had to be shaken up to forge clear.
Pearl Sea is built and bred to be a sprinter and is probably best on fast ground judged by her pedigree and stride pattern. She has a very good chance of winning the Lowther next time out on this performance.
GRANDEUR IS GROUP CLASS
GRANDEUR (38) got unbalanced in the closing stages when winning a strongly run 10f handicap at Goodwood. But that didn't stop him kicking clear as he rolled towards the rail in the final furlong. His final time merits a Group 3 class speed rating.
It's clear that Grandeur needs fast ground. In fact he would have won all five times he's run on good or faster ground if two photos had gone his way. He's still a bit leggy and immature so I can see him improving as a four year old.
SAPPHIRE HAS A BIG SHOT IN IRISH ST LEGER
SAPPHIRE (40) clocked a seriously good time when running away with the Give Thanks Stakes at Cork. She only had to be kept up to her work with hands and heels to forge nearly eight lengths clear in the last quarter mile.
For a brief period it looked as if Sapphire might face a serious challenge. But the good early pace and soft ground brought her stamina into play in the closing stages and she soon rolled clear by simply keeping up the gallop.
This run demonstrated that stamina is clearly Sapphire's strong suit. So it's now obvious why she wasn't quite able to beat Izzi Top over ten furlongs in the Pretty Polly Stakes. By the same token it is clear that her connections were spot on to nominate the Irish St Leger as her next target.
Many people seem to assume that Sapphire needs soft ground. But she doesn't show much in the way of knee action, so I'm not convinced of that. In fact I reckon if the ground comes up fast for the Irish St Leger it will improve her chances - principally because Hartani, the horse that looks her main danger, seems to genuinely need cut in the ground to produce his best.
AKEED MOFEED NEEDS LONGER
AKEED MOFEED (36) got back on track by winning the Listed Platinum Stakes over a mile at Cork. But he looked to be crying out for a step back up to middle distances.
The early pace was exceptionally strong, thank to Among Equals. The Coolmore front runner got from the 5.5f mark to 3f out no less than 4.27 seconds faster than the leader went in the fastest of the two 6f sprints. This coupled with the soft to heavy ground made the race a much stronger test of stamina than it would be. However it wasn't until Akeed Mofeed's stamina really started to kick in as the pace told after the two furlong from home marker that he began to pull clear.
Akeed Mofeed will need to improve on this effort if he is to win in Group company. Going up in distance is surely the way to bring that about.
I have to say I'm not totally sure that the plan of keeping Akeed Mofeed to ten furlongs in the future is right. I know he faded badly in the Irish Derby. But that was off a huge break and he still finished fourth. The way he was staying on so strongly here suggested to me that actually me might yet prefer a mile and a half to ten furlongs.
BREEDERS' CUP A GOOD OPTION FOR MOONLIGHT CLOUD
MOONLIGHT CLOUD (43) put up a seriously good performance to take the Prix Maurice de Gheest for the second year running. In a race run at a strong pace (64 seconds flat for the first 1100 metres (5.5f)) she was the only horse able to keep up the gallop in the closing stages, powering away to clock 11.5 seconds for the final 200 metres (furlong).
I think trainer Freddy Head is right to say Moonlight Cloud prefers dead flat tracks. She's won all four times she's run on perfectly level courses but lost all four times she's run above Group 3 class on tracks with gradients.
The race I'd be targeting with Moonlight Cloud is the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I say this because
not only did she win her sole start on the dirt-like Fibresand but she also has a half brother that won on Fibresand. In addition four of her seven wins have been around a turn. So, unlike most European sprinters that tackle the big American race, she's proven that she can handle the surface and show her best around a turn. It's also worth noting that she's Breeders Cup eligible, so her owners won't need to pay a big supplementary entry fee.
One unfortunate aspect of Moonlight Cloud's win is that what looked to be her biggest threat, the British raider Strong Suit, was withdrawn due to the grossly misleading official going report.
Strong Suit needs a fast surface and it turns out he would have got it had he run because Moonlight Cloud came within four fifths of a second of the track record to record the fourth fastest time ever run in the big race.
Given the final and sectional times, it' astonishing that the official going was 'very soft'. Well it would be if the race had been run in any other country.
Sadly French racing produces massively incorrect going reports like this every day. There is almost no correlation between them and the actual speed of the racing surface. Surely it's high time French racing officials were sent to Germany or Australia to be trained in the proper use of the penetrometer. They use the penetrometer in those countries to produce far more accurate official going reports.
). From then on the result was never in doubt.