The thoughts of Nick Mordin.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Mile and a half horses have a terrific record in the Juddmonte. The distance will be perfect for Nathaniel.
EC1
On a break
the Dante is a good trial for the Derby for a reason...forgot who said it.. but the 10 and change there was described by a jockey as a stiffer test than it seems..the long straight probably has a lot to do with it plus that large radius bend
EC1
On a break
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I'd back Nathaniel to beat Frankel if the price were right in this race.
Oddly enough; I believe you.:lol:
EC1
On a break
Nothing to do with it being twice the value of other trials, then?
i doubt anyone with a potential derby winner cares much about £ of a trial
i were only passing on what someone once said who actually rides the tracks
personally i'd want Nathaniel running uphill in the last furlong or so..i wouldn't back it on a flat track even at 12f
EC1
On a break
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Probably. But the Juddmonte is a stayers race and if the price was right I'd take the big man on.
EC1
On a break
i don't know..i keep getting this feeling that we are only seeing 90% of Frankel..the other 10% is unlocked over 10 & 12f furlong...who knows?
Colin Phillips
At the Start
DON'T UNDER RATE FIORENTE
There are always about twenty or thirty horses around Group 1 class that are just solid rather than spectacular. They may not be as sexy or exciting as big stars such as Frankel or Camelot. But it pays to understand them because they actually win a lot of the top races.
A whole bunch of such horses met in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket.
The race was won by FIORENTE (42) who powered through in the closing stages to win a strongly run race in what I rated Group 1 class time.
On what I saw of Fiorente last year I was expecting to see a lumbering one paced plodder that simply ground out the win thanks to the mud before I watched the video. But he's nothing like that. He picked up really well to look like a proper international class performer with a decent turn of foot.
It seems clear that Fiorente is too big-bodied to be fully fit first time out. It also looks like he needs a really long homestraight and preferably a mile and a half. His most logical target therefore is the Gran Premio del Jockey Club in October. A fair alternative would be the Canadian International. He's also in the Arc where I wouldn't totally dismiss his chances.
Runner up JOSHUA TREE (40) won the Canadian International back in 2010 and has run , third, second and fourth in the last three Group 1's he's contested. He kicked for home soon after the two furlong pole but could not contain the winner late. He's a proven stayer so the step up to a mile and three quarters for the American St Leger at Arlington on August 18th looks a good plan. He routinely runs faster than all but a handful of American turf horses have in the last decade so it's probably his fellow European raiders that will represent the main threat to him in that race.
Joshua Tree raced down one rail and third placed RED CADEAUX (39) was taken to the opposite side of the track. He ended up with nothing to race against and wasn't given a hard time of things in the last furlong when it became clear he couldn't catch the first two. He always seems to run his race and has reached the first three in all four Group 1's he's contested. He is still on track for another crack at the Melbourne Cup and is due to be given a rest with that in mind.
Fourth placed HARRIS TWEED (34) has won all three times he's run on soft ground in Group 3 or lower class. But the first three in this race were Group 1 class and he just couldn't get away from them and ended up going a little too fast for his own good up front before tiring quite badly. He's very good at dominating lower class rivals from the front in mud, but this run does seem to show he's not better than good Group 3 class.
DANDINO (28) ran an absolute clunker to finish tailed off last. His form always seems to fall apart after mid June and he is clearly best fresh. This run was off a break of just 12 days. Perhaps he can bounce back if given a rest till the Autumn.
DUBAI PRINCE BACK TO BEST
DUBAI PRINCE (41) was impressive when winning a nine furlong Conditions race at York. He settled in third place then came through to quickly overwhelm the leaders, go clear and win by nearly five lengths.
The pace for the first half mile was slow but they covered the last five furlongs a monstrous six and a half second faster than they went in the mile and a half handicap. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it suggests a borderline Group 1 class performance by Dubai Prince. And it looked like he could have pulled out a bit more if required.
I imagine the Godolphin team are kicking themselves that they didn't run Dubai Prince in the Eclipse instead of wasting his good form on this minor contest.
Quite what Dubai Prince is going to run in now was unclear from the comments from his connections after the race, and he holds no Group race entries.
It does seem likely that Dubai Prince needs cut in the ground to produce this sort of performance. He has won on the four slowest surfaces he's raced on judged by race times but run clunkers all three times he's run on quick ground.
Last year Dubai Prince won a similar race to this on his seasonal debut but was virtually pulled up when experiencing a breathing problem on his second start 29 days later in the Champion Stakes. Like quite a lot of horses with breathing problems it may be that he's best off a lengthy break. If he were mine I'd be resting him till November and bringing him back in the Premio Roma. He'd have a big chance of scoring the Group 1 win he needs to have value as a stallion in that race. It’s almost always run on the soft ground Dubai Prince seems to favour and the opposition is usually below the norm for a Group 1.
FALMOUTH PROVES HOW STRONG THE FRENCH FILLIES ARE THIS YEAR
I've noted several times before that the main theme this season has been the incredible strength in depth of French middle distance fillies. On my ratings Beauty Parlour, Giofra, Golden Lilac, Galikova, Marina Piccola, Ridasiyna, Shareta, Solemia and Valyra have all run fast enough this season to be named the top middle distance filly in Europe in an average year.
I cannot recall a season when so many middle distance fillies from a single country were so smart.
One thing I know from experience is that whenever there is a particularly strong sub population of runners one of them invariably wins the Arc.
The over-generous WFA allowance that 3yo's get over middle distance make it likely that one of the 3YO's on my list is most likely to win the Arc. That means Beauty Parlour, Marina Piccola, Ridasiyna or Valyra.
Beauty Parlour looks the least likely of the four as she showed last time that she lacks the turn of foot needed to win really big races in France, where sprint finishes are so common. That's surely why her owners have just sent her to Britain to be trained by Henry Cecil. The stronger early pace and longer homestraights in Britain will bring her stamina into play and ensure she rarely has to cope with a sprint finish again.
Ridasiyna looks unlikely to even run in the Arc as she is owned by the Aga Khan, just like Valyra. It looks clear from Ridasiyna's proposed next two starts in the Nassau Stakes and the Beverley D that she is not going to be given the Summer break that is the norm for most top French horses and almost every Arc winner. So my bet is she won't run in the Vermeille or the Arc but will be kept to shorter races such as the Prix l'Opera and perhaps the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
Marina Piccola isn't entered in any Group races, let alone the Arc and has only been running for a couple of months. My bet is her connections aren't even thinking about the Arc.
Valyra is clearly going down the traditional Arc route for three year old fillies by tackling the Vermeille. She should win that race and that will probably be enough to make her favourite for the Arc on the PMU come the big day. This being so prices as big as 16-1 that the bookies are offering about Valyra for the Arc look way too big.
But of course the Arc is not run till October. Right now the sheer volume of top class fillies in France is setting their connections quite a challenge. If all the horses I've named contested the obvious local targets that top fillies usually tackle in France they'd end up running against and beating each other which would hurt their records and future stud value.
Beauty Parlour's owners have found one solution to this problem by sending her to Britain. The only other filly on my list this might work for is Shareta who is also a little one paced. But Shareta is owned by the Aga Khan, like Valyra. And she is such a strong front runner it makes sense to keep her back home because she can be used to ensure a strong pace and bring out Valyra's obvious stamina in the Vermeille and the Arc.
In any event, due to their need to avoid each other, we're clearly going to see an unusually large number of French middle distance fillies running abroad this year. We actually had three of them running in last week's Falmouth Stakes, even though its distance is only a mile.
The odds on favourite was GOLDEN LILAC (29) who won last year's Poule d’Essai des Pouliches and Prix de Diane (French 1000 Guineas and Oaks) and this year beat Europe's top middle distance horse Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix d'Ispahan.
The big concern I had with Golden Lilac in the Falmouth Stakes stemmed from what is normally her main asset, namely her amazing turn of foot.
When she won the Prix de la Grotte last year, Golden Lilac quickened up remarkably to run the penultimate furlong in ten seconds flat according to the official sectional times. That's the fastest furlong ever run in Europe in the closing stages of a race that I know of.
Horses with a smart turn of foot tend to be at their best in races around a turn on fast ground. Their ability to quicken smartly once the braking effect of the turn ends is a major advantage - one that is emphasised by a firm surface.
Horses shorten their strides significantly on soft ground to stay balanced. The surface is just too slippery to change speed quickly. When a horse tries to accelerate sharply a lot of their extra effort gets wasted by slippage and merely ends up throwing out big divots behind them - like a car spinning wheels when it's stuck in mud or snow.
Golden Lilac had not run on a straight course before the Falmouth Stakes and the only time she'd run on anything but good or faster ground according to race times in pattern company was in last year's Prix Guillame d'Ornano. She'd suffered her only previous loss there when third to Galikova.
In the circumstances it's not that surprising Golden Lilac floundered in the ground on an unsuitable course at Newmarket to beat just a single horse home.
This loss rather throws a spanner in the works for Golden Lilac's planned future schedule. Her next engagement is in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville. But her connections will surely want to avoid going there as the race is run on a straight course just like the Falmouth Stakes. I imagine they'll go for the ten furlong Prix Jean Romanet at the same meeting instead.
Golden Lilac's only other entry is in the Arc, but I seriously doubt she'd stay the twelve furlongs of that race. So it looks like her owners are going to have to come up with a plan B and pay some supplementary entry fees to get her into alternative races.
If she were mine the race I'd be focusing on with Golden Lilac would be the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. The ground is almost certain to be firm for that race and Golden Lilac's amazing acceleration should make her almost unbeatable in the sprint finishes that are the norm for American turf racing. Actually, the turns are so tight at Santa Anita and the pace likely to be so slow that the Breeders' Cup Turf would also be a great option for Golden Lilac even though it's a mile and a half. She'd surely stay the distance in US conditions.
We've just passed the July 15th deadline when Golden Lilac could have been supplemented into the Breeders Cup for $50,000. It will now cost $100,000 to make her eligible for the meeting, but I think it would be money well spent. Andre Fabre says Golden Lilac is the best filly he's ever trained, so it makes sense to give her the chance to show how good she is on a global stage before she retires to stud. I'd also like to see her supplemented for the Irish Champion Stakes as long as the ground is riding fast.
The horse that won the Falmouth Stakes was Golden Lilac's compatriot GIOFRA (39) who earned the biggest speed rating I've given a filly all season when winning the Prix d'Harcourt.
Giofra couldn't contain Cirrus des Aigles when second to him on heavy ground in the Prix Ganay. But that was no disgrace as the French champion could probably beat any horse we've seen in the last couple of decades on such ground. She had the Prix du Jockey winner back in third, which shows what a good performance it was.
The cut back to a mile was a bit of a gamble with Giofra as she's clearly best over longer. But the soft ground started to work in her favour in the closing stages by bringing her stamina into play. She worried away at the lead established by runner up Elusive Kate and got up to win going away.
Giofra ran three lengths a mile below her best here by my estimates, almost certainly due to the cut back in distance. I doubt that she'll be asked to run such a short trip again. Indeed her connections were talking of a possible Arc bid afterwards, though the Prix l'Opera looks more likely.
The next target for Giofra is the Nassau Stakes. She should go well there thanks to the extra two furlongs but will have to give away nine pounds to Ridasiyna. Ridasiyna is another of the top French fillies and has been awfully impressive in winning all her starts. She is the joint best three year old filly on my ratings and I have trouble seeing even Giofra beat her at a difference of nine pounds.
With two furlongs to run ELUSIVE KATE (39) looked much the most likely winner. She'd burst through to lead and was moving really strongly. She kept moving strongly but just got worn down by a rival with superior stamina.
Elusive Kate had been pulled out of the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes due to the soft ground, so this was her first run since last season. It turned out that actually she can handle soft ground despite her stride pattern suggesting otherwise.
Elusive Kate looks to have grown and strengthened significantly since last season. And the late start she's made is not that big a concern as she's still in time to tackle the Prix d'Astarte and the Matron Stakes on her next two starts. Those races give her a serious chance of adding to the Group 1 success she scored in the Prix Marcel Boussac last year.
In the Prix d'Astarte at Deauville Elusive Kate will have to face her old rival Mashoora who looks tough to beat following her recent impressive success. But you should never be afraid of a single horse and Elusive Kate did beat Mashoora into second on the same course last year in the Prix du Calvados. Besides the Deauville race gives her a better chance of getting fast ground than the Matron Stakes, and if she does improve for faster ground then she could well beat Mashoora again.
Third place in the Falmouth Stakes went to another French raider in SIYOUMA (38). Siyouma is quite a tall, long striding filly that's clearly suited to longer. She was picking up really well in the final furlong to pull nearly four lengths clear of the rest.
Siyouma is unlucky to be around at a time when there are so many smart French middle distance fillies. She went close against Giofra here and lost by less than a length to Solemia and Shareta last time. She's probably going to need to avoid those three fillies and the other five French female stars I mentioned earlier to score a win in the near future. That's going to be a tall order unless she drops down in class or continues to race abroad.
CERTIFY A 1000 GUINEAS PROSPECT
CERTIFY (35) had to be hustled along when the pace picked up over the final three furlongs when winning a maiden 2yo fillies race at Newmarket. But she eventually picked up really well to smoothly go clear and win by an expanding three lengths.
Certify has a smooth, fast ground action, so I'd anticipate improvement from her on a faster surface. In addition she's built and bred for a mile rather than the six furlongs of this race. She looks a decent prospect for next year's 1000 Guineas. Meanwhile she should be able to win in pattern company over seven furlongs or a mile at two.
MARS LOOKS GOOD FOR RACING POST TROPHY
MARS (36) simply ran away with a seven furlong maiden on Dundalk's Polytrack. He made all the running and quickened up remarkably well to cover the final three furlongs in just 33.84 seconds - compared with the 35.59 seconds decent older horses took in the one mile handicap.
When I adjust my ratings to reflect his terrific finish it suggests a Group class performance by Mars.
Mars is a strong, deep chested but athletic sort with the build for a mile and a half, so I can see why the bookies have marked him up favourite for the Derby. He's a pretty well balanced sort. His stride is pretty big, but at a peak 24.7 feet when in full flight it's not so big that you'd worry about him floundering around tight turns.
Basically we won't really find out just how good Mars and what his racing characteristics truly are until he runs in a Group race against decent opposition. For now all I can say is that he looks well up to winning in Group company and appears a very solid prospect for both the Derby and the Racing Post Trophy.
MARINA PICCOLA SHOULD GO FOR THE GERMAN OAKS
The incredible strength of French middle distance fillies this year was demonstrated once more when MARINA PICCOLA (39) won the Listed Prix de Thiberville at Longchamp last week. The Irish owned and bred filly clocked a slightly faster time than Imperial Monarch managed over the same course and distance in the Grand Prix de Paris later on the card. What's more she covered the last three furlongs 1.4 seconds faster.
It wasn't a case of the ground getting softer by the time the Grand Prix de Paris was run. The final and sectional times for the Prix Maurice de Nieuil and claiming race run just before and just after the big race show that. Marina Piccola is simply that good.
Marina Piccola was held up at the back of the field and turned into the straight sixth of the seven runners, about four lengths off the leader. She was visibly moving better than all her rivals, hung fire for a bit but then produced a devastating run down the wide outside to win by a rapidly expanding length and a quarter.
Marina Piccola is a close coupled, well balanced filly that clearly has a serious turn of foot. She showed this when experiencing her only loss in three starts to date on her next to last run. In a very slow run conditions race at Longchamp she was boxed in when the sprint finish began late, two furlongs out. The runners finished so fast that they officially clocked 22.19 seconds for the final 400 metres (two furlongs) and Marina Piccola almost got up. Her jockey tried to squeeze her through an almost non-existent gap on the rail, and she's so manouverable she wriggled through, surged forward and only went under by a rapidly diminishing head.
With no Group race entries having been made for her and the French middle distance fillies being such a strong group the blindingly obvious move with Marina Piccola just has to be to pay the remarkably modest supplementary entry fee to get her into the valuable Preis der Diana (German Oaks). There are currently no foreign entries for that race and the tight track should suit Marina Piccola as she's so nippy and manouverable. As I see it she'd be pretty much a slam dunk to win it, and that would be a Group 1 to her name.
Last year I suggested in this column that Dancing Rain should be supplemented for the Preis der Diana. Her connections took my advice and she won the big German race. I'm hoping that the connections of Marina Piccola follow suit.
Runner up GLOOMY SUNDAY (38) had won the two previous times she'd encountered soft ground and had finished a close fourth to the top class Valyra on yielding ground on her previous start. That was over ten furlongs. The step up to twelve furlongs here clearly suited Gloomy Sunday.
Gloomy Sunday picked up seriously well to run down third placed Bit By Bit who'd kicked clear entering the straight. She soon went away from that rival but the winner than flashed by like she was standing still.
Gloomy Sunday doesn't show any noticeable knee action and is an attractive good moving sort. So it could be the only reason she's performed so well in mud before was that she was running over inadequate trips and the mud made them more of a stamina test. However her brother Abjer scored his big win on soft ground, so maybe she does need it that way. Only time will tell.
The obvious long term target for Gloomy Sunday would be the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp's Arc meeting.
WEAK RENEWAL OF GRAND PRIX DE PARIS
Normally I award ratings in the 41-43 range for winners of the top races for three year old colts. But this season the three year old colts are clearly a weak group as only the Derby winner Camelot has earned a rating better than 40 from me. And I have to say that the form of the Derby is working out so poorly I'm now wondering whether I rated Camelot's performance too high.
With no European Group 1's to come that are limited to 3yo colts, barring the St Leger, it's tough to nominate any upcoming Group 1's, especially over middle distances that are likely to be won by any member of the male classic generation. The only ones I'd see as at all likely are Novellist in the Grosser Preis von Baden, Real Solution in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club and Bonfire in the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion Stakes. (I don't think Camelot will be fresh enough for the Arc if he tackles the St Leger).
This being so I wasn't exactly shocked that IMPERIAL MONARCH (39) clocked a fractionally slower time when winning the Grand Prix de Paris than the winner of an admittedly hot Listed race for 3YO fillies earlier on the card.
The heavy rain was a huge plus for Imperial Monarch. He's a big, long striding sort with pronounced knee action that almost certainly needs soft ground to be fully effective.
To make full use of his stamina and counteract his lack of acceleration jockey Joseph O'Brien set a good pace on Imperial Monarch and kicked a couple of lengths clear with two furlongs left to run. That two length cushion proved absolutely vital because Imperial Monarch tired worryingly quickly in the closing stages. He actually started wandering around because he was so tired. The second, third, fourth and fifth all started cutting into his lead with alacrity and he just held on by the skin of his teeth.
A measure of how slow Imperial Monarch finished is that the ran the last three furlongs 1.2 seconds slower than they went in the 1m 6f Group 2, 1.4 seconds slower than in the Listed race for fillies and 2.1 seconds slower than the 9.25 furlong claiming race (where the early pace was admittedly slow).
Given the level of ability he showed here, his need for soft ground and the fact he'll now have to face older horses I can't see Imperial Monarch winning another race unless he drops down in class. But rather than knock the horse further I think it's more appropriate to praise his trainer Aidan O'Brien and son Joseph his jockey for conjuring two Group wins including a Group 1 out of such unpromising material. The clever riding tactics they adopted in the Sandown Classic Trial and in this race were fundamental to the horse's success. And the choice of the two races was inspired as they both featured weak fields for the class and the soft ground the horse loves.
Runner up LAST TRAIN (39) had looked a Listed to Group 3 horse based on his three previous runs. And in truth this performance would do no better than win him a Group 3 against older horses. But he did improve for the step up to a mile and a half and there was a lot to like about the way he rallied so willingly and professionally in the closing stages.
If there was a proper Group 1 horse in the race it was probably third placed SAINT BAUDOLINO (39). He made up ground quickly despite running green and hanging while drifting towards the rail in the closing stages. If he'd been a bit more focused I suspect he would have won.
If he'd enjoyed a clear run in the Prix du Jockey Club and not run green here Saint Baudolino might well have won both races instead of going under by three quarters of a length each time. He showed amazing agility to find an opening in the Prix du Jockey Club, just as he had when squeezing through an impossibly small gap to win the Prix de Guiche on his previous start.
Saint Baudolino can produce a strong finish but he's clearly produced his best form in the most strongly run races he's contested. He actually lost a rather ordinary conditions race at Longchamp in April when he couldn't catch the winner in a sprint finish off a slow early gallop.
In the circumstances Saint Baudolino should thrive when Godolphin switch him to Britain later on. The stronger pace and longer homestraights of British racing will suit him well. Meanwhile he looks the best Arc prospect from this race.
Much has been made of the traffic problems suffered by fourth placed MAIN SEQUENCE (39). But after watching the video a few times I'm not convinced he would have achieved a better finishing position with a clear run. I suspect he'd have simply finished half or three quarters of a length closer, and I'm rating him in that basis.
I suggested after his Derby second that the Grand Prix de Paris probably offered Main Sequence his best chance of success in a Group 1 event as it looked set to be a weak renewal, which indeed it was. Now that he's lost this race I struggle to see what other Group 1 he could succeed in, except perhaps the St Leger which his trainer did mention as a potential target.
TOP TRIP (38) stayed on best of all down the outside to finish a close fifth, just as he had in the Prix du Jockey Club. With Kahyasi as his dam sire, there's clearly plenty of stamina in his pedigree. The way he keeps running on too late makes it look like he's really a stayer and wants to go up in trip.
It's interesting to note that Top Trip is trained by Francois Doumen who won the top French race for stayers last year, the two and half mile Prix du Cadran, with Kasbah Bliss, a son of Kahyasi. With that one looking to be on the verge of retirement it could be that Doumen has a viable replacement in Top Trip. I'd certainly like to see him given a shot at the Prix Chaudenay the top staying race for three year olds in France. I'd also be rather interested if he was supplemented for the St Leger.
VADAMAR A SERIOUS MELBOURNE CUP PLAYER
France is the only country in the world where staying events still represent a significant percentage of the total races run. So it makes perfect sense that the last two Melbourne Cup winners, Americain and Dunaden, have been French horses.
Americain and Dunaden will be lining up again at Flemington in November. But it may well be that VADAMAR (40) has the best chance of giving France a hat trick in the race that stops a nation.
Vadamar has been awfully consistent in Group 1 races and against Group 1 winners over a mile and a half or less. In fact over the last year only Group 1 winners had finished in front of him in all but one of his five starts.
Vadamar has had a habit of staying on strongly but too late. So it looked a logical move to step him up to a mile and three quarters for the Prix Maurice de Nieuil last Saturday.
Thanks to the longer distance Vadamar was able to show more early speed than usual in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil and looked uncatchable when kicking on two furlongs out after he cut across his main rival Tac De Boistron and forced him to be snatched up sharply. He couldn't quite hold off the remarkable rally staged by Tac De Boistron but still ran a huge race to go under by the narrowest of margins.
It's clear that Vadamar's new owners were right to buy him as a Melbourne Cup prospect. The longer distance of the Prix Maurice de Nieuil enabled him to put up his best ever performance.
I concede that there's still a concern that Vadamar has scored all his three wins in fields of seven or less and has lacked the speed to steer clear of traffic problems effectively when there have been more runners. But now that he's racing over longer trips he won't be at full stretch and should therefore be more manouverable.
The winner TAC DE BOISTRON (40) moved really strongly but looked to have his chance ended when the winner was edged across to the rail to close a gap on him with a furlong left. This forced Tac De Boistron to be snatched up sharply, losing two lengths and momentum. But he rallied in the most remarkable fashion to power back towards the leader for a deserved win.
I noted last year that Tac De Boistron is a near unstoppable force in staying races run on soft ground. If two photos had gone his way he would have won five of the six times he's run on soft or heavy ground beyond a mile and a half. His connections will be hoping the ground is favourable for the Prix Royal Oak and the Prix du Cadran at the end of the season. If it is then he will have a serious chance of landing a Group 1. Indeed he might well have clocked a Group 1 time here but for being stopped in his tracks by Vadamar.
There are always about twenty or thirty horses around Group 1 class that are just solid rather than spectacular. They may not be as sexy or exciting as big stars such as Frankel or Camelot. But it pays to understand them because they actually win a lot of the top races.
A whole bunch of such horses met in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket.
The race was won by FIORENTE (42) who powered through in the closing stages to win a strongly run race in what I rated Group 1 class time.
On what I saw of Fiorente last year I was expecting to see a lumbering one paced plodder that simply ground out the win thanks to the mud before I watched the video. But he's nothing like that. He picked up really well to look like a proper international class performer with a decent turn of foot.
It seems clear that Fiorente is too big-bodied to be fully fit first time out. It also looks like he needs a really long homestraight and preferably a mile and a half. His most logical target therefore is the Gran Premio del Jockey Club in October. A fair alternative would be the Canadian International. He's also in the Arc where I wouldn't totally dismiss his chances.
Runner up JOSHUA TREE (40) won the Canadian International back in 2010 and has run , third, second and fourth in the last three Group 1's he's contested. He kicked for home soon after the two furlong pole but could not contain the winner late. He's a proven stayer so the step up to a mile and three quarters for the American St Leger at Arlington on August 18th looks a good plan. He routinely runs faster than all but a handful of American turf horses have in the last decade so it's probably his fellow European raiders that will represent the main threat to him in that race.
Joshua Tree raced down one rail and third placed RED CADEAUX (39) was taken to the opposite side of the track. He ended up with nothing to race against and wasn't given a hard time of things in the last furlong when it became clear he couldn't catch the first two. He always seems to run his race and has reached the first three in all four Group 1's he's contested. He is still on track for another crack at the Melbourne Cup and is due to be given a rest with that in mind.
Fourth placed HARRIS TWEED (34) has won all three times he's run on soft ground in Group 3 or lower class. But the first three in this race were Group 1 class and he just couldn't get away from them and ended up going a little too fast for his own good up front before tiring quite badly. He's very good at dominating lower class rivals from the front in mud, but this run does seem to show he's not better than good Group 3 class.
DANDINO (28) ran an absolute clunker to finish tailed off last. His form always seems to fall apart after mid June and he is clearly best fresh. This run was off a break of just 12 days. Perhaps he can bounce back if given a rest till the Autumn.
DUBAI PRINCE BACK TO BEST
DUBAI PRINCE (41) was impressive when winning a nine furlong Conditions race at York. He settled in third place then came through to quickly overwhelm the leaders, go clear and win by nearly five lengths.
The pace for the first half mile was slow but they covered the last five furlongs a monstrous six and a half second faster than they went in the mile and a half handicap. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it suggests a borderline Group 1 class performance by Dubai Prince. And it looked like he could have pulled out a bit more if required.
I imagine the Godolphin team are kicking themselves that they didn't run Dubai Prince in the Eclipse instead of wasting his good form on this minor contest.
Quite what Dubai Prince is going to run in now was unclear from the comments from his connections after the race, and he holds no Group race entries.
It does seem likely that Dubai Prince needs cut in the ground to produce this sort of performance. He has won on the four slowest surfaces he's raced on judged by race times but run clunkers all three times he's run on quick ground.
Last year Dubai Prince won a similar race to this on his seasonal debut but was virtually pulled up when experiencing a breathing problem on his second start 29 days later in the Champion Stakes. Like quite a lot of horses with breathing problems it may be that he's best off a lengthy break. If he were mine I'd be resting him till November and bringing him back in the Premio Roma. He'd have a big chance of scoring the Group 1 win he needs to have value as a stallion in that race. It’s almost always run on the soft ground Dubai Prince seems to favour and the opposition is usually below the norm for a Group 1.
FALMOUTH PROVES HOW STRONG THE FRENCH FILLIES ARE THIS YEAR
I've noted several times before that the main theme this season has been the incredible strength in depth of French middle distance fillies. On my ratings Beauty Parlour, Giofra, Golden Lilac, Galikova, Marina Piccola, Ridasiyna, Shareta, Solemia and Valyra have all run fast enough this season to be named the top middle distance filly in Europe in an average year.
I cannot recall a season when so many middle distance fillies from a single country were so smart.
One thing I know from experience is that whenever there is a particularly strong sub population of runners one of them invariably wins the Arc.
The over-generous WFA allowance that 3yo's get over middle distance make it likely that one of the 3YO's on my list is most likely to win the Arc. That means Beauty Parlour, Marina Piccola, Ridasiyna or Valyra.
Beauty Parlour looks the least likely of the four as she showed last time that she lacks the turn of foot needed to win really big races in France, where sprint finishes are so common. That's surely why her owners have just sent her to Britain to be trained by Henry Cecil. The stronger early pace and longer homestraights in Britain will bring her stamina into play and ensure she rarely has to cope with a sprint finish again.
Ridasiyna looks unlikely to even run in the Arc as she is owned by the Aga Khan, just like Valyra. It looks clear from Ridasiyna's proposed next two starts in the Nassau Stakes and the Beverley D that she is not going to be given the Summer break that is the norm for most top French horses and almost every Arc winner. So my bet is she won't run in the Vermeille or the Arc but will be kept to shorter races such as the Prix l'Opera and perhaps the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
Marina Piccola isn't entered in any Group races, let alone the Arc and has only been running for a couple of months. My bet is her connections aren't even thinking about the Arc.
Valyra is clearly going down the traditional Arc route for three year old fillies by tackling the Vermeille. She should win that race and that will probably be enough to make her favourite for the Arc on the PMU come the big day. This being so prices as big as 16-1 that the bookies are offering about Valyra for the Arc look way too big.
But of course the Arc is not run till October. Right now the sheer volume of top class fillies in France is setting their connections quite a challenge. If all the horses I've named contested the obvious local targets that top fillies usually tackle in France they'd end up running against and beating each other which would hurt their records and future stud value.
Beauty Parlour's owners have found one solution to this problem by sending her to Britain. The only other filly on my list this might work for is Shareta who is also a little one paced. But Shareta is owned by the Aga Khan, like Valyra. And she is such a strong front runner it makes sense to keep her back home because she can be used to ensure a strong pace and bring out Valyra's obvious stamina in the Vermeille and the Arc.
In any event, due to their need to avoid each other, we're clearly going to see an unusually large number of French middle distance fillies running abroad this year. We actually had three of them running in last week's Falmouth Stakes, even though its distance is only a mile.
The odds on favourite was GOLDEN LILAC (29) who won last year's Poule d’Essai des Pouliches and Prix de Diane (French 1000 Guineas and Oaks) and this year beat Europe's top middle distance horse Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix d'Ispahan.
The big concern I had with Golden Lilac in the Falmouth Stakes stemmed from what is normally her main asset, namely her amazing turn of foot.
When she won the Prix de la Grotte last year, Golden Lilac quickened up remarkably to run the penultimate furlong in ten seconds flat according to the official sectional times. That's the fastest furlong ever run in Europe in the closing stages of a race that I know of.
Horses with a smart turn of foot tend to be at their best in races around a turn on fast ground. Their ability to quicken smartly once the braking effect of the turn ends is a major advantage - one that is emphasised by a firm surface.
Horses shorten their strides significantly on soft ground to stay balanced. The surface is just too slippery to change speed quickly. When a horse tries to accelerate sharply a lot of their extra effort gets wasted by slippage and merely ends up throwing out big divots behind them - like a car spinning wheels when it's stuck in mud or snow.
Golden Lilac had not run on a straight course before the Falmouth Stakes and the only time she'd run on anything but good or faster ground according to race times in pattern company was in last year's Prix Guillame d'Ornano. She'd suffered her only previous loss there when third to Galikova.
In the circumstances it's not that surprising Golden Lilac floundered in the ground on an unsuitable course at Newmarket to beat just a single horse home.
This loss rather throws a spanner in the works for Golden Lilac's planned future schedule. Her next engagement is in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville. But her connections will surely want to avoid going there as the race is run on a straight course just like the Falmouth Stakes. I imagine they'll go for the ten furlong Prix Jean Romanet at the same meeting instead.
Golden Lilac's only other entry is in the Arc, but I seriously doubt she'd stay the twelve furlongs of that race. So it looks like her owners are going to have to come up with a plan B and pay some supplementary entry fees to get her into alternative races.
If she were mine the race I'd be focusing on with Golden Lilac would be the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. The ground is almost certain to be firm for that race and Golden Lilac's amazing acceleration should make her almost unbeatable in the sprint finishes that are the norm for American turf racing. Actually, the turns are so tight at Santa Anita and the pace likely to be so slow that the Breeders' Cup Turf would also be a great option for Golden Lilac even though it's a mile and a half. She'd surely stay the distance in US conditions.
We've just passed the July 15th deadline when Golden Lilac could have been supplemented into the Breeders Cup for $50,000. It will now cost $100,000 to make her eligible for the meeting, but I think it would be money well spent. Andre Fabre says Golden Lilac is the best filly he's ever trained, so it makes sense to give her the chance to show how good she is on a global stage before she retires to stud. I'd also like to see her supplemented for the Irish Champion Stakes as long as the ground is riding fast.
The horse that won the Falmouth Stakes was Golden Lilac's compatriot GIOFRA (39) who earned the biggest speed rating I've given a filly all season when winning the Prix d'Harcourt.
Giofra couldn't contain Cirrus des Aigles when second to him on heavy ground in the Prix Ganay. But that was no disgrace as the French champion could probably beat any horse we've seen in the last couple of decades on such ground. She had the Prix du Jockey winner back in third, which shows what a good performance it was.
The cut back to a mile was a bit of a gamble with Giofra as she's clearly best over longer. But the soft ground started to work in her favour in the closing stages by bringing her stamina into play. She worried away at the lead established by runner up Elusive Kate and got up to win going away.
Giofra ran three lengths a mile below her best here by my estimates, almost certainly due to the cut back in distance. I doubt that she'll be asked to run such a short trip again. Indeed her connections were talking of a possible Arc bid afterwards, though the Prix l'Opera looks more likely.
The next target for Giofra is the Nassau Stakes. She should go well there thanks to the extra two furlongs but will have to give away nine pounds to Ridasiyna. Ridasiyna is another of the top French fillies and has been awfully impressive in winning all her starts. She is the joint best three year old filly on my ratings and I have trouble seeing even Giofra beat her at a difference of nine pounds.
With two furlongs to run ELUSIVE KATE (39) looked much the most likely winner. She'd burst through to lead and was moving really strongly. She kept moving strongly but just got worn down by a rival with superior stamina.
Elusive Kate had been pulled out of the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes due to the soft ground, so this was her first run since last season. It turned out that actually she can handle soft ground despite her stride pattern suggesting otherwise.
Elusive Kate looks to have grown and strengthened significantly since last season. And the late start she's made is not that big a concern as she's still in time to tackle the Prix d'Astarte and the Matron Stakes on her next two starts. Those races give her a serious chance of adding to the Group 1 success she scored in the Prix Marcel Boussac last year.
In the Prix d'Astarte at Deauville Elusive Kate will have to face her old rival Mashoora who looks tough to beat following her recent impressive success. But you should never be afraid of a single horse and Elusive Kate did beat Mashoora into second on the same course last year in the Prix du Calvados. Besides the Deauville race gives her a better chance of getting fast ground than the Matron Stakes, and if she does improve for faster ground then she could well beat Mashoora again.
Third place in the Falmouth Stakes went to another French raider in SIYOUMA (38). Siyouma is quite a tall, long striding filly that's clearly suited to longer. She was picking up really well in the final furlong to pull nearly four lengths clear of the rest.
Siyouma is unlucky to be around at a time when there are so many smart French middle distance fillies. She went close against Giofra here and lost by less than a length to Solemia and Shareta last time. She's probably going to need to avoid those three fillies and the other five French female stars I mentioned earlier to score a win in the near future. That's going to be a tall order unless she drops down in class or continues to race abroad.
CERTIFY A 1000 GUINEAS PROSPECT
CERTIFY (35) had to be hustled along when the pace picked up over the final three furlongs when winning a maiden 2yo fillies race at Newmarket. But she eventually picked up really well to smoothly go clear and win by an expanding three lengths.
Certify has a smooth, fast ground action, so I'd anticipate improvement from her on a faster surface. In addition she's built and bred for a mile rather than the six furlongs of this race. She looks a decent prospect for next year's 1000 Guineas. Meanwhile she should be able to win in pattern company over seven furlongs or a mile at two.
MARS LOOKS GOOD FOR RACING POST TROPHY
MARS (36) simply ran away with a seven furlong maiden on Dundalk's Polytrack. He made all the running and quickened up remarkably well to cover the final three furlongs in just 33.84 seconds - compared with the 35.59 seconds decent older horses took in the one mile handicap.
When I adjust my ratings to reflect his terrific finish it suggests a Group class performance by Mars.
Mars is a strong, deep chested but athletic sort with the build for a mile and a half, so I can see why the bookies have marked him up favourite for the Derby. He's a pretty well balanced sort. His stride is pretty big, but at a peak 24.7 feet when in full flight it's not so big that you'd worry about him floundering around tight turns.
Basically we won't really find out just how good Mars and what his racing characteristics truly are until he runs in a Group race against decent opposition. For now all I can say is that he looks well up to winning in Group company and appears a very solid prospect for both the Derby and the Racing Post Trophy.
MARINA PICCOLA SHOULD GO FOR THE GERMAN OAKS
The incredible strength of French middle distance fillies this year was demonstrated once more when MARINA PICCOLA (39) won the Listed Prix de Thiberville at Longchamp last week. The Irish owned and bred filly clocked a slightly faster time than Imperial Monarch managed over the same course and distance in the Grand Prix de Paris later on the card. What's more she covered the last three furlongs 1.4 seconds faster.
It wasn't a case of the ground getting softer by the time the Grand Prix de Paris was run. The final and sectional times for the Prix Maurice de Nieuil and claiming race run just before and just after the big race show that. Marina Piccola is simply that good.
Marina Piccola was held up at the back of the field and turned into the straight sixth of the seven runners, about four lengths off the leader. She was visibly moving better than all her rivals, hung fire for a bit but then produced a devastating run down the wide outside to win by a rapidly expanding length and a quarter.
Marina Piccola is a close coupled, well balanced filly that clearly has a serious turn of foot. She showed this when experiencing her only loss in three starts to date on her next to last run. In a very slow run conditions race at Longchamp she was boxed in when the sprint finish began late, two furlongs out. The runners finished so fast that they officially clocked 22.19 seconds for the final 400 metres (two furlongs) and Marina Piccola almost got up. Her jockey tried to squeeze her through an almost non-existent gap on the rail, and she's so manouverable she wriggled through, surged forward and only went under by a rapidly diminishing head.
With no Group race entries having been made for her and the French middle distance fillies being such a strong group the blindingly obvious move with Marina Piccola just has to be to pay the remarkably modest supplementary entry fee to get her into the valuable Preis der Diana (German Oaks). There are currently no foreign entries for that race and the tight track should suit Marina Piccola as she's so nippy and manouverable. As I see it she'd be pretty much a slam dunk to win it, and that would be a Group 1 to her name.
Last year I suggested in this column that Dancing Rain should be supplemented for the Preis der Diana. Her connections took my advice and she won the big German race. I'm hoping that the connections of Marina Piccola follow suit.
Runner up GLOOMY SUNDAY (38) had won the two previous times she'd encountered soft ground and had finished a close fourth to the top class Valyra on yielding ground on her previous start. That was over ten furlongs. The step up to twelve furlongs here clearly suited Gloomy Sunday.
Gloomy Sunday picked up seriously well to run down third placed Bit By Bit who'd kicked clear entering the straight. She soon went away from that rival but the winner than flashed by like she was standing still.
Gloomy Sunday doesn't show any noticeable knee action and is an attractive good moving sort. So it could be the only reason she's performed so well in mud before was that she was running over inadequate trips and the mud made them more of a stamina test. However her brother Abjer scored his big win on soft ground, so maybe she does need it that way. Only time will tell.
The obvious long term target for Gloomy Sunday would be the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp's Arc meeting.
WEAK RENEWAL OF GRAND PRIX DE PARIS
Normally I award ratings in the 41-43 range for winners of the top races for three year old colts. But this season the three year old colts are clearly a weak group as only the Derby winner Camelot has earned a rating better than 40 from me. And I have to say that the form of the Derby is working out so poorly I'm now wondering whether I rated Camelot's performance too high.
With no European Group 1's to come that are limited to 3yo colts, barring the St Leger, it's tough to nominate any upcoming Group 1's, especially over middle distances that are likely to be won by any member of the male classic generation. The only ones I'd see as at all likely are Novellist in the Grosser Preis von Baden, Real Solution in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club and Bonfire in the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion Stakes. (I don't think Camelot will be fresh enough for the Arc if he tackles the St Leger).
This being so I wasn't exactly shocked that IMPERIAL MONARCH (39) clocked a fractionally slower time when winning the Grand Prix de Paris than the winner of an admittedly hot Listed race for 3YO fillies earlier on the card.
The heavy rain was a huge plus for Imperial Monarch. He's a big, long striding sort with pronounced knee action that almost certainly needs soft ground to be fully effective.
To make full use of his stamina and counteract his lack of acceleration jockey Joseph O'Brien set a good pace on Imperial Monarch and kicked a couple of lengths clear with two furlongs left to run. That two length cushion proved absolutely vital because Imperial Monarch tired worryingly quickly in the closing stages. He actually started wandering around because he was so tired. The second, third, fourth and fifth all started cutting into his lead with alacrity and he just held on by the skin of his teeth.
A measure of how slow Imperial Monarch finished is that the ran the last three furlongs 1.2 seconds slower than they went in the 1m 6f Group 2, 1.4 seconds slower than in the Listed race for fillies and 2.1 seconds slower than the 9.25 furlong claiming race (where the early pace was admittedly slow).
Given the level of ability he showed here, his need for soft ground and the fact he'll now have to face older horses I can't see Imperial Monarch winning another race unless he drops down in class. But rather than knock the horse further I think it's more appropriate to praise his trainer Aidan O'Brien and son Joseph his jockey for conjuring two Group wins including a Group 1 out of such unpromising material. The clever riding tactics they adopted in the Sandown Classic Trial and in this race were fundamental to the horse's success. And the choice of the two races was inspired as they both featured weak fields for the class and the soft ground the horse loves.
Runner up LAST TRAIN (39) had looked a Listed to Group 3 horse based on his three previous runs. And in truth this performance would do no better than win him a Group 3 against older horses. But he did improve for the step up to a mile and a half and there was a lot to like about the way he rallied so willingly and professionally in the closing stages.
If there was a proper Group 1 horse in the race it was probably third placed SAINT BAUDOLINO (39). He made up ground quickly despite running green and hanging while drifting towards the rail in the closing stages. If he'd been a bit more focused I suspect he would have won.
If he'd enjoyed a clear run in the Prix du Jockey Club and not run green here Saint Baudolino might well have won both races instead of going under by three quarters of a length each time. He showed amazing agility to find an opening in the Prix du Jockey Club, just as he had when squeezing through an impossibly small gap to win the Prix de Guiche on his previous start.
Saint Baudolino can produce a strong finish but he's clearly produced his best form in the most strongly run races he's contested. He actually lost a rather ordinary conditions race at Longchamp in April when he couldn't catch the winner in a sprint finish off a slow early gallop.
In the circumstances Saint Baudolino should thrive when Godolphin switch him to Britain later on. The stronger pace and longer homestraights of British racing will suit him well. Meanwhile he looks the best Arc prospect from this race.
Much has been made of the traffic problems suffered by fourth placed MAIN SEQUENCE (39). But after watching the video a few times I'm not convinced he would have achieved a better finishing position with a clear run. I suspect he'd have simply finished half or three quarters of a length closer, and I'm rating him in that basis.
I suggested after his Derby second that the Grand Prix de Paris probably offered Main Sequence his best chance of success in a Group 1 event as it looked set to be a weak renewal, which indeed it was. Now that he's lost this race I struggle to see what other Group 1 he could succeed in, except perhaps the St Leger which his trainer did mention as a potential target.
TOP TRIP (38) stayed on best of all down the outside to finish a close fifth, just as he had in the Prix du Jockey Club. With Kahyasi as his dam sire, there's clearly plenty of stamina in his pedigree. The way he keeps running on too late makes it look like he's really a stayer and wants to go up in trip.
It's interesting to note that Top Trip is trained by Francois Doumen who won the top French race for stayers last year, the two and half mile Prix du Cadran, with Kasbah Bliss, a son of Kahyasi. With that one looking to be on the verge of retirement it could be that Doumen has a viable replacement in Top Trip. I'd certainly like to see him given a shot at the Prix Chaudenay the top staying race for three year olds in France. I'd also be rather interested if he was supplemented for the St Leger.
VADAMAR A SERIOUS MELBOURNE CUP PLAYER
France is the only country in the world where staying events still represent a significant percentage of the total races run. So it makes perfect sense that the last two Melbourne Cup winners, Americain and Dunaden, have been French horses.
Americain and Dunaden will be lining up again at Flemington in November. But it may well be that VADAMAR (40) has the best chance of giving France a hat trick in the race that stops a nation.
Vadamar has been awfully consistent in Group 1 races and against Group 1 winners over a mile and a half or less. In fact over the last year only Group 1 winners had finished in front of him in all but one of his five starts.
Vadamar has had a habit of staying on strongly but too late. So it looked a logical move to step him up to a mile and three quarters for the Prix Maurice de Nieuil last Saturday.
Thanks to the longer distance Vadamar was able to show more early speed than usual in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil and looked uncatchable when kicking on two furlongs out after he cut across his main rival Tac De Boistron and forced him to be snatched up sharply. He couldn't quite hold off the remarkable rally staged by Tac De Boistron but still ran a huge race to go under by the narrowest of margins.
It's clear that Vadamar's new owners were right to buy him as a Melbourne Cup prospect. The longer distance of the Prix Maurice de Nieuil enabled him to put up his best ever performance.
I concede that there's still a concern that Vadamar has scored all his three wins in fields of seven or less and has lacked the speed to steer clear of traffic problems effectively when there have been more runners. But now that he's racing over longer trips he won't be at full stretch and should therefore be more manouverable.
The winner TAC DE BOISTRON (40) moved really strongly but looked to have his chance ended when the winner was edged across to the rail to close a gap on him with a furlong left. This forced Tac De Boistron to be snatched up sharply, losing two lengths and momentum. But he rallied in the most remarkable fashion to power back towards the leader for a deserved win.
I noted last year that Tac De Boistron is a near unstoppable force in staying races run on soft ground. If two photos had gone his way he would have won five of the six times he's run on soft or heavy ground beyond a mile and a half. His connections will be hoping the ground is favourable for the Prix Royal Oak and the Prix du Cadran at the end of the season. If it is then he will have a serious chance of landing a Group 1. Indeed he might well have clocked a Group 1 time here but for being stopped in his tracks by Vadamar.
EC1
On a break
i hope so Steve
this is now getting silly with NM..The race was won by FIORENTE (42) who powered through in the closing stages to win a strongly run race in what I rated Group 1 class time.
this is just patently wrong
Fiorente ran a speed figure of 102..his figure was just 8 lb faster than Jedward..htf can it be a G1 time?
pure nonsense
this is now getting silly with NM..The race was won by FIORENTE (42) who powered through in the closing stages to win a strongly run race in what I rated Group 1 class time.
this is just patently wrong
Fiorente ran a speed figure of 102..his figure was just 8 lb faster than Jedward..htf can it be a G1 time?
pure nonsense
Zenyatta
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 4, 2011
- Messages
- 587
Ryan Moore rode the rest to sleep. He let them cut their own throats, rode his own race, and won as he liked. I'd be surprised if Fiorente wasn't hugely flattered by the result even if he may be starting to fulfil his early promise. The one to take from the race was surely Red Cadeaux who was asked to challenge far too early but kept on really well to chase home the two horses who had been ridden with patience.
Can't deny that I agree with this... as I've already said it.
EC1
On a break
i can't recall that
Which is why it was chosen for Frankel's 10f debut, rather than the POW or the Eclipse :lol: - Henry Cecil (and a shedload of others) clearly see it differently.
Last edited:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Mile and a half horses stepping down, think Roberto and Singspiel, have a better record in the race than milers stepping up. That's a fact not an opinion.
Last edited:
But, even your own criterion would apply - moreso - to races such as the Eclipse and the POW.
It's all rendered academic now, anyway, as Nathaniel won't be running in the International - which is less of a surprise to some, than others.
It's all rendered academic now, anyway, as Nathaniel won't be running in the International - which is less of a surprise to some, than others.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I agree in that I would have gone Queen Anne/Eclipse if he were mine. But the Juddmonte is the owners race.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
ARC DOUBLE WILL BE TOUGH FOR DANEDREAM
Until this year the King George had looked in serious danger of becoming a weak Group 1 that attracted small fields and few genuine Group 1 horses.
This is because a few years back the Grand Prix de Paris was increased in distance to a mile and a half. The move effectively created two Derbies for three year olds in July, along with the Irish Derby.
The strength of the Grand Prix de Paris and Irish Derby were lowered, making each much easier to win for a three year old than the King George. So the good mile and a half three year olds, those with Group 1 form, basically vanished from the King George overnight.
Initially this meant that we had much smaller fields for the King George and very few three year olds, especially those with Group 1 form. But this year there was an obvious and major change. Six of the ten runners were from overseas. French, German and Japanese trainers joined their Irish counterparts in spotting that the King George had become an easier race to win.
We’ve never seen this many foreign runners in the King George before. This is great news for the organisers of the race, and for British racing. But it has changed the whole character of the King George from its former status as a clash between the top three year olds and older horses in Britain and Ireland to a proper international contest.
The change is welcome. If sustained (and I think it will be) it means that Britain now has a secure place in the international schedule of big middle distance contests such as the Dubai Sheema Classic, Arc de Triomphe, Breeders' Cup Turf, Japan Cup and Hong Kong Cup and Vase. I like that idea.
With seven Group 1 winners in the line up it was pretty much inevitable that the finish would end up a tight one like the Arc rather than usual King George renewal. And that's how it turned out. There was just four lengths between the first seven finishers. The winner was last year's Arc victor DANEDREAM (43) who moved well throughout and came with a sustained late run to just catch the runner up Nathaniel.
In the past it was rare for Arc winners to tackle the King George the next season. But the changing character of the British race has seen it attract as many Arc winners since 2000 as it had in the previous half century. And if Workforce hadn't swerved across the track last year four of the last five Arc winners to tackle the King George the next season would probably have won. You can see this from the stats below:
1951...Tantieme.....................................third
1956...Ribot...........................................WON
1968...Topyo.........................................third
1995...Carnegie.....................................sixth
1997...Helissio......................................third
2000...Montjeu......................................WON
2005...Bago..........................................third
2006...Hurricane Run.............................WON
2011...Workforce...................................second
2012...Danedream..................................WON
Danedream ran below her best when last of four in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her previous start, getting outrun rather readily in the sprint finish. She's probably better with more of a stamina test, which she certainly had at Ascot thanks to the strong early gallop. However I think the excuse offered by her jockey that she may dislike left handed tracks like Saint Cloud probably had a lot to do with it.
Danedream has won twice at left-handed Baden-Baden. However the first time was on heavy ground in last year's Grosser Preis von Baden. In that race, as is always the case on soft ground at Baden-Baden, the field swung wide off the home turn and migrated to the stands rail, negating any tendency on Danedream's part to shift right off the turn. But when she won a Group 2 on good ground at Baden-Baden this year the field didn't swing wide off the turn anything like as much as they do on slower going. And Danedream hung badly right all the way up the straight, ending up three quarters of the way across the course. She lost plenty of ground in the process and barely held the late rush of Ovambo Queen who isn't in her class.
This being so I am rather concerned at what the stats say is a 66% possibility of good ground for Danedream's next intended race which is another crack at the Grosser Preis von Baden. I have a hard time seeing how she can beat the brilliant three year old Novellist and the very smart Meandre in that race if the ground isn't soft enough for the field to swing wide off the home turn. She could well end up having too hard a race too close to the Arc to be in shape to win it for a second year running.
I think it was misleading for Danedream's trainer Peter Schiergen to dismiss the Grosser Pries von Baden as "a small Group 1" when talking to reporters after the race. In fact it is the most prestigious race in Germany and this year's renewal features a seriously good opponent for Danedream in the shape of Novellist who will be getting six pounds.
In the circumstances I would hold off on taking the 6-1 or less the bookies are offering about Danedream pulling off the Arc double. She may very well end up having too hard a race against Novellist and Meandre in the Grosser Preis von Baden to produce her best at Longchamp. I'd be wary of taking the 25-1 you can get against Novellist too as German three year olds are rarely asked to tackle the Arc due to the widespread belief of German trainers that their horses mature later than those bred elsewhere.
I had thought that runner up NATHANIEL (43) might well regress of his big win in the Eclipse two weeks earlier.. But on reflection horses that are best fresh like him tend to be able to produce their top form on their first two starts of the year. It's only afterwards that they normally start to need breaks between their outings.
Nathaniel raced in fourth, just ahead of Danedream. Jockey William Buick shrewdly kicked on with him over a furlong out to counteract Nathaniel's lack of acceleration. And it looked like the move would pay off for quite a way. But Danedream's superior turn of foot eventually enabled her to get by him and win in a head bob.
Trainer John Gosden said after the race that he now planned on giving Nathaniel a long break. He will be brought back for the Champion Stakes with consideration also being given to an Arc run.
I'm not sure either race is ideal for Nathaniel. The downhill run to the furlong pole in the Arc virtually guarantees a sprint finish however fast they go early, and sprint finishes don't suit him. And the Ascot race means he'll be cutting back to ten furlongs a track that has a homestraight little more than half as long as the one that enabled him to take the Eclipse. Then again I don't see any obvious race for him over 12 furlongs plus where he could avoid a sprint finish or one over ten furlongs with a long homestraight. So I can't suggest an alternative.
Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (42) was one of a trio of fast finishers that closed on the first two through the last furlong. Last for much of the race, he picked up really well but was never going to get involved.
In the past I've suggested that St Nicholas Abbey may not be at his best around right handed courses such as Ascot. After all, though he has won around the right handed dog leg at the Curragh, he's lost all six times he's been asked to tackle a full right hand turn - as was the case here. What’s more if the photo had gone his way in the Sheema Classic St Nicholas Abbey would have won all five times he's run on left handed tracks.
The trouble with this theory is that after so many runs going right handed St Nicholas Abbey ought to have demonstrated a tendency to shift to the left at some time but he hasn't done so. So I'm now inclined to share his jockey's view that it was simply the ground that was against him at Ascot, just as it had been in all his outings on right handed courses since his 2YO days.
St Nicholas Abbey has now lost all five times he’s run on ground with the word ‘soft’ in the official description since his juvenile days - running well below his best in most of those losses. This does seem a decent alternative explanation as he would have won five of the six times he’s gone ten furlongs plus on good or faster ground if that photo against Cirrus Des Aigles had gone his way.
The odd looking, rather choppy and short stride pattern that St Nicholas Abbey has certainly suggests he's likely to prefer a particular type of surface, and it looks like it is fast ground.
Aidan O'Brien suggested after the race that he wanted to try St Nicholas Abbey over ten furlongs (something I've suggested might be a good idea before). This explains his entries in the Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes. He's more likely to get fast ground in the former race, so I imagine O'Brien is planning an assault on the Juddmonte International, most likely with a brace of pacemakers to ensure a strong pace for St Nicholas Abbey. The race is starting to shape up as a good target for him.
It occurs to me that, like Camelot, St Nicholas Abbey is by the recently deceased Montjeu. So I'd speculate that St Nicholas Abbey rather than Camelot may well end up as the immediate replacement for Montjeu at Coolmore if he can get that Group 1 win over a mile and a quarter. This leaves open the possibility of Camelot staying in training next year.
RELIABLE MAN (42) was hung out a bit wide at the back early and picked up strongly to close in on the leaders before just getting caught for third by the even stronger finishing St Nicholas Abbey. With an inside draw or slightly slower ground I think he'd have been half a length or more closer. This was a big run.
Last year Reliable Man won the Prix du Jockey Club and beat a smart field in the Prix Niel. He is still lightly raced and looked to have been crying out for a step back up to this distance on his previous three starts this season.
On his seasonal debut when third in the Prix Ganay, he looked set to get by Giofra as she fell back to join him in the closing stages. But he seemed to blow up through lack of fitness and wasn't unduly punished when she started to go away from him again. His trainer and jockey felt he didn't like the heavy ground (the trainer had warned he’d need the run too).
Next time out Reliable Man was cut back to nine furlongs for the Prix d’Ispahan, which was run at a slow pace. He couldn't make much headway late due to the wild sprint finish. I wrote at the time “He surely needs to go back up in distance, probably all the way to a mile and a half.”
On his last run before the King George Reliable Man finished very strongly to be three lengths fourth in a good renewal of the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Once more I got the impression that he'd do better when stepped back up to a mile and a half.
Trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre has expressed concerns several times about running Reliable Man on ground that’s too fast. It was certainly too quick for him in the Arc and the Grand Prix de Paris and probably a bit too fast in the Prince Of Wales give the short distance. He’s won four of his other six starts and clearly wasn’t fit first time out in his only other loss besides this one.
Reliable Man is good enough to win a big international Group 1 if the ground isn't too fast, especially over twelve furlongs. His connections must now decide whether to go the traditional Arc route via the Prix Niel or hope for cut in the ground in the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion Stakes. If he were mine I'd take my chances and go for the Prix Niel then the Arc. He might just sneak the Arc if he got his ground and looks rather attractively priced for the big Longchamp race at 33-1. I wouldn't mind a few pennies each way at those odds.
SEA MOON (42) did nothing wrong. He surged through al too late from second last place to finish a close fifth without ever looking likely to get involved. I now return to my former worry that he lacks the kind of push button acceleration needed to win in Group 1 company. He's now lost all three times he's run kin Group 1 races but would have won all six times he's run in lower class if a short head photo on his debut had gone his way.
This performance rather torpedoes Sea Moon's Arc prospects, given the fast finish there invariably is for that race. The Group 1's that I'd be looking at for him would be the Canadian International or the Gran Premio del Jockey Club. He'd probably get the cut in the ground he needs to counteract his lack of acceleration in those races and the longer homestraights would help him too.
DUNADEN (41) pulled hard early and head off the Coolmore pacemaker Robin Hood. This led to the first half of the race being 2.6 seconds faster than the strongly run 12f handicap later on the card while the last half was only 0.9 of a second faster.
Going that lopsidedly fast early almost certainly hurt Dunaden's chances. So he did well to get beat less than three and a half lengths.
It should be borne in mind that Dunaden does seem to peak towards the end of the season. If two photos had gone his way he'd have won the last eight times he's run in October, November and December. He’s lost all six times he’s run in Group 1 or 2 company in September or earlier.
Last year Dunaden won three in a row from October onwards, including two of the world's most valuable races, the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase. He must have a good chance of taking another big international prize when it gets to be his favoured time of year.
BROWN PANTHER (40) ran his best ever race to finish seventh by four lengths, almost certainly due to getting the cut in the ground he prefers. He has yet to win a Group race in five tries but has won five of his six outings in Listed or lower class. However this run does suggest he should have a shot in the Irish St Leger.
GREAT HEAVENS CONFIRMS HER CLASS
GREAT HEAVENS (40) went a long way towards proving she's the best middle distance 3yo filly in Britain or Ireland when producing a good turn of foot to run away from her rivals and win the Irish Oaks by three lengths in fast time.
The plan is apparently to supplement Great Heavens for the Yorkshire Oaks and the St Leger. She'll have a tough opponent if Solemia ships over from France for the first of those races but she does look a solid proposition for the Leger.
Runner up SHIROCCO STAR (38) was having a ding dong battle with Oaks winner Was when Great Heavens swept by. She was tired and rolled towards the rail, looking in danger of squashing Was against the fence. But surprisingly her jockey Johnny Murtagh kept whipping her from the left and the inevitable happened. Was got totally flattened against the rails and had to take up very sharply. It was lucky she didn't come down as she'd have brought half the field down with her. Maybe it looked different live and in the camera patrol footage the stewards had available, but I have to say I think Shirocco Star should have been demoted.
Third placed PRINCESS HIGHWAY (37) moved well early but flattened out in the closing stages, validating her connections concerns about her being able to handle such soft ground. The Yorkshire Oaks looks her logical target too and maybe she'll be able to turn the form around with the winner if the ground is faster for that race.
WAS (38) would have finished second or third but for being squashed by Shirocco Star and I'm rating her on that basis. Her connections said before the race that they were worried about the soft ground. So I'm prepared to believe she can run better than this.
RECKLESS ABANDON THE ONE TO BEAT IN PRIX MORNY
Five and six furlong two year olds get a few brief months in the spotlight. They lack the maturity to beat older horses in sprints at three. So they must make hay while the sun shines in July, August and September in the handful of Group 1 2yo races available to them at short sprint trips.
RECKLESS ABANDON (38) emerged as the latest star in this short lived division when winning the Prix Robert Papin in what ranks as Group 1 time for a two year old. He made all the running at a strong pace and readily beat off what initially looked a serious challenge from the runner up to win full of running.
I've little doubt that Reckless Abandon will stay the extra half furlong in the Prix Morny. After that his obvious remaining target will be the Middle Park.
BAYRIR WANTS A MILE AND A HALF
The early pace was very strong in the Group 2 Prix Eugene run over ten furlongs up the straight at Maisons-Laffitte. And this seemed to suit BAYRIR (38) perfectly. He lobbed along in last place, moved up then came between horses readily when switched off the rail for a run, coming clear to win by nearly two lengths after just a couple of cracks with the whip.
This run suggests to me that Bayrir will do even better over a mile and a half. Indeed his only loss to date was in a slow run nine furlong race where he was too far back, had trouble coping with the sprint finish and was pretty much allowed to come home in his own time through the last furlong.
Bayrir is entered up in the Preis von Europa over a mile and a half in September. In the meantime his trainer plans to run him over ten furlongs again the in the Prix Guillame d'Ornano at Deauville. I think he'll need a strong pace again there to score.
MEANDRE DOES IT AGAIN
MEANDRE (41) is a smart horse in a small field on fast ground. So it was no big surprise that he was able to win a six runner renewal of the Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten on fast ground.
In a race run at a modest early pace Meandre quickened up best of all during a final three furlongs run in just 33.7 seconds to quickly put his rivals to the sword.
So far Meandre has lost all nine times he's run on ground that race times indicate was slower than good. He's won five out of six on quicker surfaces, with his sole loss being a good sixth of sixteen in the Arc.
Seeing that he's shown himself to be shy about taking openings in big fields it makes sense to bring Meandre back to Germany for the Grosser Preis von Baden where he should have a great chance of scoring a fourth Group 1 win as long as he gets his ground. There'd be no harm running him in the Arc after that but I can't see him coping with the big field.
Runner up EARL OF TINSDAL (40) had won a very good renewal of the Gran Premio di Milano on his previous run. But that race was run on a bigger, more galloping track on soft ground. Here he set a moderate pace on fast ground and got totally swamped for finishing speed by the winner before rallying late to re-take second place.
Earl Of Tinsdal is a rangy, long striding sort that shows knee action and has little acceleration. He's rather reminiscent of Schiaparelli who won three mile and a half Group 1's before winning several Group races around two miles for Godolphin. He'd make a terrific hurdler and chaser but of course he's never going to go jumping with such smart Group 1 form to his name.
This was the only German Group 1 Earl Of Tinsdal could contest around a vaguely galloping track (Hoppegarten is Germany's biggest course). In future I'd like to see him run overseas more where he can run on bigger tracks. Woodbine would be a good option for the Canadian International as would San Siro for the Gran Premio del Jockey Club.
Until this year the King George had looked in serious danger of becoming a weak Group 1 that attracted small fields and few genuine Group 1 horses.
This is because a few years back the Grand Prix de Paris was increased in distance to a mile and a half. The move effectively created two Derbies for three year olds in July, along with the Irish Derby.
The strength of the Grand Prix de Paris and Irish Derby were lowered, making each much easier to win for a three year old than the King George. So the good mile and a half three year olds, those with Group 1 form, basically vanished from the King George overnight.
Initially this meant that we had much smaller fields for the King George and very few three year olds, especially those with Group 1 form. But this year there was an obvious and major change. Six of the ten runners were from overseas. French, German and Japanese trainers joined their Irish counterparts in spotting that the King George had become an easier race to win.
We’ve never seen this many foreign runners in the King George before. This is great news for the organisers of the race, and for British racing. But it has changed the whole character of the King George from its former status as a clash between the top three year olds and older horses in Britain and Ireland to a proper international contest.
The change is welcome. If sustained (and I think it will be) it means that Britain now has a secure place in the international schedule of big middle distance contests such as the Dubai Sheema Classic, Arc de Triomphe, Breeders' Cup Turf, Japan Cup and Hong Kong Cup and Vase. I like that idea.
With seven Group 1 winners in the line up it was pretty much inevitable that the finish would end up a tight one like the Arc rather than usual King George renewal. And that's how it turned out. There was just four lengths between the first seven finishers. The winner was last year's Arc victor DANEDREAM (43) who moved well throughout and came with a sustained late run to just catch the runner up Nathaniel.
In the past it was rare for Arc winners to tackle the King George the next season. But the changing character of the British race has seen it attract as many Arc winners since 2000 as it had in the previous half century. And if Workforce hadn't swerved across the track last year four of the last five Arc winners to tackle the King George the next season would probably have won. You can see this from the stats below:
1951...Tantieme.....................................third
1956...Ribot...........................................WON
1968...Topyo.........................................third
1995...Carnegie.....................................sixth
1997...Helissio......................................third
2000...Montjeu......................................WON
2005...Bago..........................................third
2006...Hurricane Run.............................WON
2011...Workforce...................................second
2012...Danedream..................................WON
Danedream ran below her best when last of four in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on her previous start, getting outrun rather readily in the sprint finish. She's probably better with more of a stamina test, which she certainly had at Ascot thanks to the strong early gallop. However I think the excuse offered by her jockey that she may dislike left handed tracks like Saint Cloud probably had a lot to do with it.
Danedream has won twice at left-handed Baden-Baden. However the first time was on heavy ground in last year's Grosser Preis von Baden. In that race, as is always the case on soft ground at Baden-Baden, the field swung wide off the home turn and migrated to the stands rail, negating any tendency on Danedream's part to shift right off the turn. But when she won a Group 2 on good ground at Baden-Baden this year the field didn't swing wide off the turn anything like as much as they do on slower going. And Danedream hung badly right all the way up the straight, ending up three quarters of the way across the course. She lost plenty of ground in the process and barely held the late rush of Ovambo Queen who isn't in her class.
This being so I am rather concerned at what the stats say is a 66% possibility of good ground for Danedream's next intended race which is another crack at the Grosser Preis von Baden. I have a hard time seeing how she can beat the brilliant three year old Novellist and the very smart Meandre in that race if the ground isn't soft enough for the field to swing wide off the home turn. She could well end up having too hard a race too close to the Arc to be in shape to win it for a second year running.
I think it was misleading for Danedream's trainer Peter Schiergen to dismiss the Grosser Pries von Baden as "a small Group 1" when talking to reporters after the race. In fact it is the most prestigious race in Germany and this year's renewal features a seriously good opponent for Danedream in the shape of Novellist who will be getting six pounds.
In the circumstances I would hold off on taking the 6-1 or less the bookies are offering about Danedream pulling off the Arc double. She may very well end up having too hard a race against Novellist and Meandre in the Grosser Preis von Baden to produce her best at Longchamp. I'd be wary of taking the 25-1 you can get against Novellist too as German three year olds are rarely asked to tackle the Arc due to the widespread belief of German trainers that their horses mature later than those bred elsewhere.
I had thought that runner up NATHANIEL (43) might well regress of his big win in the Eclipse two weeks earlier.. But on reflection horses that are best fresh like him tend to be able to produce their top form on their first two starts of the year. It's only afterwards that they normally start to need breaks between their outings.
Nathaniel raced in fourth, just ahead of Danedream. Jockey William Buick shrewdly kicked on with him over a furlong out to counteract Nathaniel's lack of acceleration. And it looked like the move would pay off for quite a way. But Danedream's superior turn of foot eventually enabled her to get by him and win in a head bob.
Trainer John Gosden said after the race that he now planned on giving Nathaniel a long break. He will be brought back for the Champion Stakes with consideration also being given to an Arc run.
I'm not sure either race is ideal for Nathaniel. The downhill run to the furlong pole in the Arc virtually guarantees a sprint finish however fast they go early, and sprint finishes don't suit him. And the Ascot race means he'll be cutting back to ten furlongs a track that has a homestraight little more than half as long as the one that enabled him to take the Eclipse. Then again I don't see any obvious race for him over 12 furlongs plus where he could avoid a sprint finish or one over ten furlongs with a long homestraight. So I can't suggest an alternative.
Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (42) was one of a trio of fast finishers that closed on the first two through the last furlong. Last for much of the race, he picked up really well but was never going to get involved.
In the past I've suggested that St Nicholas Abbey may not be at his best around right handed courses such as Ascot. After all, though he has won around the right handed dog leg at the Curragh, he's lost all six times he's been asked to tackle a full right hand turn - as was the case here. What’s more if the photo had gone his way in the Sheema Classic St Nicholas Abbey would have won all five times he's run on left handed tracks.
The trouble with this theory is that after so many runs going right handed St Nicholas Abbey ought to have demonstrated a tendency to shift to the left at some time but he hasn't done so. So I'm now inclined to share his jockey's view that it was simply the ground that was against him at Ascot, just as it had been in all his outings on right handed courses since his 2YO days.
St Nicholas Abbey has now lost all five times he’s run on ground with the word ‘soft’ in the official description since his juvenile days - running well below his best in most of those losses. This does seem a decent alternative explanation as he would have won five of the six times he’s gone ten furlongs plus on good or faster ground if that photo against Cirrus Des Aigles had gone his way.
The odd looking, rather choppy and short stride pattern that St Nicholas Abbey has certainly suggests he's likely to prefer a particular type of surface, and it looks like it is fast ground.
Aidan O'Brien suggested after the race that he wanted to try St Nicholas Abbey over ten furlongs (something I've suggested might be a good idea before). This explains his entries in the Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes. He's more likely to get fast ground in the former race, so I imagine O'Brien is planning an assault on the Juddmonte International, most likely with a brace of pacemakers to ensure a strong pace for St Nicholas Abbey. The race is starting to shape up as a good target for him.
It occurs to me that, like Camelot, St Nicholas Abbey is by the recently deceased Montjeu. So I'd speculate that St Nicholas Abbey rather than Camelot may well end up as the immediate replacement for Montjeu at Coolmore if he can get that Group 1 win over a mile and a quarter. This leaves open the possibility of Camelot staying in training next year.
RELIABLE MAN (42) was hung out a bit wide at the back early and picked up strongly to close in on the leaders before just getting caught for third by the even stronger finishing St Nicholas Abbey. With an inside draw or slightly slower ground I think he'd have been half a length or more closer. This was a big run.
Last year Reliable Man won the Prix du Jockey Club and beat a smart field in the Prix Niel. He is still lightly raced and looked to have been crying out for a step back up to this distance on his previous three starts this season.
On his seasonal debut when third in the Prix Ganay, he looked set to get by Giofra as she fell back to join him in the closing stages. But he seemed to blow up through lack of fitness and wasn't unduly punished when she started to go away from him again. His trainer and jockey felt he didn't like the heavy ground (the trainer had warned he’d need the run too).
Next time out Reliable Man was cut back to nine furlongs for the Prix d’Ispahan, which was run at a slow pace. He couldn't make much headway late due to the wild sprint finish. I wrote at the time “He surely needs to go back up in distance, probably all the way to a mile and a half.”
On his last run before the King George Reliable Man finished very strongly to be three lengths fourth in a good renewal of the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Once more I got the impression that he'd do better when stepped back up to a mile and a half.
Trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre has expressed concerns several times about running Reliable Man on ground that’s too fast. It was certainly too quick for him in the Arc and the Grand Prix de Paris and probably a bit too fast in the Prince Of Wales give the short distance. He’s won four of his other six starts and clearly wasn’t fit first time out in his only other loss besides this one.
Reliable Man is good enough to win a big international Group 1 if the ground isn't too fast, especially over twelve furlongs. His connections must now decide whether to go the traditional Arc route via the Prix Niel or hope for cut in the ground in the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion Stakes. If he were mine I'd take my chances and go for the Prix Niel then the Arc. He might just sneak the Arc if he got his ground and looks rather attractively priced for the big Longchamp race at 33-1. I wouldn't mind a few pennies each way at those odds.
SEA MOON (42) did nothing wrong. He surged through al too late from second last place to finish a close fifth without ever looking likely to get involved. I now return to my former worry that he lacks the kind of push button acceleration needed to win in Group 1 company. He's now lost all three times he's run kin Group 1 races but would have won all six times he's run in lower class if a short head photo on his debut had gone his way.
This performance rather torpedoes Sea Moon's Arc prospects, given the fast finish there invariably is for that race. The Group 1's that I'd be looking at for him would be the Canadian International or the Gran Premio del Jockey Club. He'd probably get the cut in the ground he needs to counteract his lack of acceleration in those races and the longer homestraights would help him too.
DUNADEN (41) pulled hard early and head off the Coolmore pacemaker Robin Hood. This led to the first half of the race being 2.6 seconds faster than the strongly run 12f handicap later on the card while the last half was only 0.9 of a second faster.
Going that lopsidedly fast early almost certainly hurt Dunaden's chances. So he did well to get beat less than three and a half lengths.
It should be borne in mind that Dunaden does seem to peak towards the end of the season. If two photos had gone his way he'd have won the last eight times he's run in October, November and December. He’s lost all six times he’s run in Group 1 or 2 company in September or earlier.
Last year Dunaden won three in a row from October onwards, including two of the world's most valuable races, the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase. He must have a good chance of taking another big international prize when it gets to be his favoured time of year.
BROWN PANTHER (40) ran his best ever race to finish seventh by four lengths, almost certainly due to getting the cut in the ground he prefers. He has yet to win a Group race in five tries but has won five of his six outings in Listed or lower class. However this run does suggest he should have a shot in the Irish St Leger.
GREAT HEAVENS CONFIRMS HER CLASS
GREAT HEAVENS (40) went a long way towards proving she's the best middle distance 3yo filly in Britain or Ireland when producing a good turn of foot to run away from her rivals and win the Irish Oaks by three lengths in fast time.
The plan is apparently to supplement Great Heavens for the Yorkshire Oaks and the St Leger. She'll have a tough opponent if Solemia ships over from France for the first of those races but she does look a solid proposition for the Leger.
Runner up SHIROCCO STAR (38) was having a ding dong battle with Oaks winner Was when Great Heavens swept by. She was tired and rolled towards the rail, looking in danger of squashing Was against the fence. But surprisingly her jockey Johnny Murtagh kept whipping her from the left and the inevitable happened. Was got totally flattened against the rails and had to take up very sharply. It was lucky she didn't come down as she'd have brought half the field down with her. Maybe it looked different live and in the camera patrol footage the stewards had available, but I have to say I think Shirocco Star should have been demoted.
Third placed PRINCESS HIGHWAY (37) moved well early but flattened out in the closing stages, validating her connections concerns about her being able to handle such soft ground. The Yorkshire Oaks looks her logical target too and maybe she'll be able to turn the form around with the winner if the ground is faster for that race.
WAS (38) would have finished second or third but for being squashed by Shirocco Star and I'm rating her on that basis. Her connections said before the race that they were worried about the soft ground. So I'm prepared to believe she can run better than this.
RECKLESS ABANDON THE ONE TO BEAT IN PRIX MORNY
Five and six furlong two year olds get a few brief months in the spotlight. They lack the maturity to beat older horses in sprints at three. So they must make hay while the sun shines in July, August and September in the handful of Group 1 2yo races available to them at short sprint trips.
RECKLESS ABANDON (38) emerged as the latest star in this short lived division when winning the Prix Robert Papin in what ranks as Group 1 time for a two year old. He made all the running at a strong pace and readily beat off what initially looked a serious challenge from the runner up to win full of running.
I've little doubt that Reckless Abandon will stay the extra half furlong in the Prix Morny. After that his obvious remaining target will be the Middle Park.
BAYRIR WANTS A MILE AND A HALF
The early pace was very strong in the Group 2 Prix Eugene run over ten furlongs up the straight at Maisons-Laffitte. And this seemed to suit BAYRIR (38) perfectly. He lobbed along in last place, moved up then came between horses readily when switched off the rail for a run, coming clear to win by nearly two lengths after just a couple of cracks with the whip.
This run suggests to me that Bayrir will do even better over a mile and a half. Indeed his only loss to date was in a slow run nine furlong race where he was too far back, had trouble coping with the sprint finish and was pretty much allowed to come home in his own time through the last furlong.
Bayrir is entered up in the Preis von Europa over a mile and a half in September. In the meantime his trainer plans to run him over ten furlongs again the in the Prix Guillame d'Ornano at Deauville. I think he'll need a strong pace again there to score.
MEANDRE DOES IT AGAIN
MEANDRE (41) is a smart horse in a small field on fast ground. So it was no big surprise that he was able to win a six runner renewal of the Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten on fast ground.
In a race run at a modest early pace Meandre quickened up best of all during a final three furlongs run in just 33.7 seconds to quickly put his rivals to the sword.
So far Meandre has lost all nine times he's run on ground that race times indicate was slower than good. He's won five out of six on quicker surfaces, with his sole loss being a good sixth of sixteen in the Arc.
Seeing that he's shown himself to be shy about taking openings in big fields it makes sense to bring Meandre back to Germany for the Grosser Preis von Baden where he should have a great chance of scoring a fourth Group 1 win as long as he gets his ground. There'd be no harm running him in the Arc after that but I can't see him coping with the big field.
Runner up EARL OF TINSDAL (40) had won a very good renewal of the Gran Premio di Milano on his previous run. But that race was run on a bigger, more galloping track on soft ground. Here he set a moderate pace on fast ground and got totally swamped for finishing speed by the winner before rallying late to re-take second place.
Earl Of Tinsdal is a rangy, long striding sort that shows knee action and has little acceleration. He's rather reminiscent of Schiaparelli who won three mile and a half Group 1's before winning several Group races around two miles for Godolphin. He'd make a terrific hurdler and chaser but of course he's never going to go jumping with such smart Group 1 form to his name.
This was the only German Group 1 Earl Of Tinsdal could contest around a vaguely galloping track (Hoppegarten is Germany's biggest course). In future I'd like to see him run overseas more where he can run on bigger tracks. Woodbine would be a good option for the Canadian International as would San Siro for the Gran Premio del Jockey Club.