The thoughts of Nick Mordin.

What d'you think of this then:

CIRRUS DES AIGLES CAN BEAT FRANKEL OVER TEN FURLONGS

I've probably written more words about CIRRUS DES AIGLES (43) than any flat racer in all the time I've been writing this column. And I simply have to write about him again following his impressive win in the Prix Ganay.

The heavy ground was no problem for Cirrus des Aigles. He set off in the lead at a reasonable gallop but really picked up when jockey Olivier Peslier asked him to fully five furlongs from the finish. He got home from that point a monstrous 3.9 seconds faster than the winner of the Tierce handicap over 150 metres shorter earlier on the card.

Giofra came out of the pack to try and challenge Cirrus des Aigles and got to within two lengths at one point. But Cirrus des Aigles has shown in the past that he can sustain his finishing effort for a remarkably long way. So eventually the filly gave way and Cirrus Des Aigles kept on rolling without being shown the stick to cruise eight lengths clear. He was moving so strongly at the finish that I find it hard to believe any horse on the planet could have got to him. The performance merits yet another international class Group 1 speed rating from me.

Last year Cirrus Des Aigles showed that he could run a sub 24 second quarter mile towards the end of a race on heavy ground when scoring at Deauville. He did the same thing again here, running 23.4 seconds between the five and three furlong markers compared with 26.2 seconds in the Tierce handicap. This astonishing injection of pace had his rivals at full stretch and eventually saw them all tire quite badly.

I've suggested before that the ability of Cirrus des Aigles to quicken instantly, even rounding a turn, and sustain his finishing run almost indefinitely would give him a major chance of beating Frankel if the pair ever meet over ten furlongs. Frankel is a brilliant horse but his huge stride precludes him from increasing his effort too much rounding a turn and ensures he takes a while to hit full speed in a sprint finish.

If Cirrus des Aigles and Frankel met in the Champion Stakes at Ascot I can see the French horse stealing a break rounding the home turn and being awfully hard to peg back.

Cirrus Des Aigles is extremely versatile, more so than any top class horse I can remember. The distance, the course, the going and the pace all seem pretty much irrelevant to him. The only caveat is that he's a stuffy horse who needs a recent run. He has lost all twelve times he's come into a race off a break longer than 31 days but would have won sixteen of the last seventeen times he's returned within 31 days if four photos had gone his way. He's now won the last six times he's come into a race off a break of 31 days or less.

Trainer Corrine Barande-Barbe looks set to ensure there is no break longer than 31 days between his upcoming engagements. She told reporters after the race "If he has recovered, he will go to Singapore on May 20 (Singapore Airlines International Stakes over 10 furlongs) and after that we look at Prince of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. It is he who chooses his races, I want to say a big thank you to all his fans. ''

The owner chimed in'' This summer we hope to run the King George Stakes ... then in the Autumn the Champions Stakes, where he is the defending champion.''

With a normal middle distance horse the idea of trying to rack up six Group 1 wins in a row by Mid Summer would be silly. But Cirrus Des Aigles is a very sound horse that seems able to take an awful lot of racing. He once raced nineteen times in twelve months.

I don't see why Cirrus Des Aigles shouldn't win all his target races, It's just a pity that he'll probably get rested afterwards for his Autumn campaign as this means he'll almost certainly lose his comeback outing and break his winning sequence.

GIOFRA (40) tried gamely to close the big lead Cirrus Des Aigles had established and got to within two lengths of him early in the straight before wilting. It looked like her stablemate Reliable Man was going to catch her for second but he seemed to blow up and she also rallied to go away from him again once he'd got upsides.

The heavy ground was almost certainly not suitable for Giofra. She suffered her only other loss on her debut the sole time she'd encountered a soft surface before. Her main weapon is a serious turn of foot that gets blunted by a soft surface.

Giofra is capable of winning a Group 1 against males judged on her big win in the Prix d'Harcourt on her previous start. So her entry in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes looks logical, even though she may have to face Cirrus des Aigles again there. In the longer term I still like her for the Vermeille and the Arc.

RELIABLE MAN (38) looked set to get by Giofra as she fell back to join him in the closing stages. But he seemed to blow up through lack of fitness and wasn't unduly punished when she started to go away from him again. His trainer and jockey felt he didn't like the heavy ground.

So far Reliable Man has yet to earn better than a Group 2 class speed rating from me. But he won the Prix du Jockey Club, beat a smart field in the Prix Niel and is lightly raced, so I'm going to reserved judgement on him.

Fourth placed WIGMORE HALL (37) is not five and is a far bigger, stronger and more muscular horse than the skinny three year old I remember from a couple of seasons back. He must have grown two or three inches and put on 75 pounds or more.

The extra strength seems to have translated into extra stamina as Wigmore Hall's only win in the last year came the one time he had the chance to run a mile and a half when taking the Grade 1 Northern Dancer in Canada. Here he could only stay on at one pace late on ground that his record says was way too soft for him.





LA PEINTURE DESERVES A SHOT AT A CLASSIC

LA PEINTURE (37) stretched her unbeaten run to five when winning a 10.5f Listed race at Toulouse.

The early pace wasn't slow enough to hurt the final time, but there was still a proper sprint finish from three furlongs out.

La Peinture raced in fourth most of the way on the outside and closed up smoothly as the sprint began. She took a bump from the horse on her outside entering the straight but this didn't stop her continuing to gain ground. She showed really good acceleration to take the lead inside the last furlong and kick away by nearly two lengths. Her jockey never went for his stick. He just pushed her out with hands and heels and she was still full of running crossing the line.

The only horse to ever make a race of it with La Peinture so far has been Trois Lunes who ran her to half a length at Saint-Cloud in March in another Listed race. Trois Lunes certainly franked the form when winning the Group 3 Prix Vanteux a few days later at Longchamp.

I've little doubt that La Peinture can run a bit faster than she did here. That means her connections need to give serious consideration to supplementing her for the Prix Saint-Alary of Prix de Diane.

La Peinture has the physique of a ten furlong horse. Her pedigree points the same way too. But I'm not yet convinced she won't get the mile and a half of the Prix Vermeille in September.





NEW OUTLOOK IS SMART GOING RIGHT HANDED

NEW OUTLOOK (38) set what looked like an unsustainably fast pace for the heavy ground in a 52,000 Euro Tierce Handicap at Longchamp over a mile on Monday. But he just kept powering away to score by three lengths.

I gave him a Group 3 class rating for this performance. And he's now been bumped up to an official rating of 98, which means he's probably going to have to step up in grade to pattern races.

New Outlook is by Awesome Again, the Breeders Cup Classic winner. He's the first foal of a Listed placed half sister to Turgeon (won Irish and French St Legers) and Tikkanen (Breeders Cup Turf etc). He seems to need his seasonal debuts. His only loss in his other three starts came when he ran at Saint-Cloud. That's the only time he's run around a left handed course.

In that Saint-Cloud race New Outlook blasted off into the lead at a searching pace as usual. But as they started rounding the first turn he kept on running almost straight and nearly disappeared out of the video frame. He came even wider around the tighter home turn and looked to have given away about ten lengths in all (he only lost by nine).

Maybe New Outlook is just a total nutter that has to go right handed and be allowed his head. But he's only had five runs. I would have thought that the thing to do is to take him out of racing and re-school him for several months. Maybe he can be taught to settle and handle left-handed turns. Or perhaps there's some equipment that could curb his wayward tendencies.

One reason New Outlook was able to keep running so strongly at Longchamp is that he's got the build (and pedigree) of a middle distance horse. In fact he broke his maiden over nine and a half furlongs on Deauville's Fibresand. On faster ground I think he'll do better over ten furlongs rather than a mile.

Even if he continues to race in this undisciplined fashion I can readily see New Outlook winning in pattern company. If he could be taught to go left-handed he'd be a very interesting prospect for dirt races in America (where all the courses are left handed).



LOI SHOULD IMPROVE A LOT FOR THIS RUN

The Group 2 Prix Noialles was run at a crawl most of the way this year. They ran at a pace of 15.3 seconds a furlong for the first five and a half furlongs, 14.7 seconds for the next two furlongs then accelerated sharply to sprint the last three furlongs in just 35.94 seconds. That's a full three seconds faster than the winner of the very good handicap over a mile earlier managed over the last three furlongs.

TIFONGO (37) made the running and looked sure to win when sustaining the sprint to be a couple of lengths clear entering the final furlong. However he began to flag in the last half furlong and was passed by HARD DREAM (38).

I have to say it looked to be more a case of Tifongo not getting home in the heavy ground rather than Hard Dream catching him because he's inherently superior. If the race had been ten instead of ten and a half furlongs Tifongo would surely have been the winner.

Hard Dream has now won all three times since losing over an inadequate mile on his debut. My feeling is that he won't prove good enough to win the Prix du Jockey Club. But it's hard to be sure when a horse has basically done everything it's been asked.

Third placed VADO BERE (36) was caught rather flat footed when the sprint began and kept on well despite not being shown the whip in the closing stages. He has the build of a mile and a half horse and could be interesting for the Grand Prix de Paris over that trip later on. He was franking the form of Kesampour, the Aga Khan's supplementary entry for the Derby to whom he'd finished third on his previous start.

LOI (34) was 4-5 favourite for the Prix Noialles on the basis of his win in the Prix de Conde as a juvenile. The problem for him in this race was that he's an athletic, pacey looking horse with a fast ground action. When the sprint for home started he was soon floundering in the heavy ground and dropped back. His jockey gave him just a single crack with the whip and then just nudged him along with hands and heels through the last quarter mile when he saw that he wasn't making any serious inroads on the leaders.

Loi's trainer Jean-Marie Beguigne said afterwards "he needs better ground and a more honest pace. It wasn't his main objective, which isn't for another six weeks. He hasn't had a hard race so he'll run in the Prix Hocquart, with the idea that he still gets to the Jockey Club a fresh horse."

I have little doubt that Loi will improve a good deal on this run in the Prix Hocquart if he gets his ground. He'll be fitter for that race and no doubt ridden more seriously.

AMAZING RUN BY PENNY'S PICNIC

PENNY'S PICNIC (37) produced and amazing performance to win a 5f Chantilly juvenile conditions race by a dozen lengths. In a strongly run race he was always going much the best and began to simply run away from his rivals approaching the final furlong.

In the good claiming sprint for three year olds over 6f they took 1.2 seconds longer to cover the last five furlongs which is astonishing as the standing start Penny's Picnic had adds about 1.7 seconds to a horse's time.

I have to rate this a proper Group 1 effort for an early season two year old.

Penny's Picnic is by Kheleyf who did best over seven furlongs and might have got a mile. He's the first foal of an unraced dam that's a full sister to multiple one mile Group winner Penny's Gold. He's a mature, good bodied colt that looks like a three year old. There's no question he will get six furlongs judged by the way he was finishing so strongly here. I'd be rather confident he'd get seven furlongs as well.

On my ratings this was the best early season performance we've seen by a two year old in France for years.



PETITE NOBLESSE CONTINUES TO IMPRESS

I gave Coolmore's PETITE NOBLESSE (36) a good write up when she ran second in a one mile conditions race on her seasonal debut. She took a similar race over the same distance at Longchamp on Monday, powering clear of her rivals in the closing stages to score by six lengths, full of running.

I can't award Petite Noblesse any better than another Listed class speed rating for this win, even when adjusting for the sprint finish off the moderate early pace. But the way she was finishing strengthens my opinion that she's crying out for a step up to middle distances.

Petite Noblesse is a good-bodied, strong, rangy sort that looks more like a colt. She's built and bred for ten to twelve furlongs and continues to look a good prospect for the Prix Saint-Alary and Prix de Diane.
 
MORE SECTIONAL TIMES PLEASE

I'd like to say a great big thank you to Qipco and Turftrax for providing sectional times for all races run at Newmarket's Guineas meeting. Normally it takes me many hours to take sectional times off race videos. And they're inevitably not as accurate or as detailed as those produced by Turftrax.

The Turftrax data massively simplified the task of assessing races based on times and made me wish sectional times were available for every race.

I still contend that the cost of innovations such as sectional timing would be more than covered by the increased betting revenue that they would generate.

There are clearly other reasons why betting turnover has gone down rapidly in Britain and Ireland during the recession while it has risen steadily in France. But my bet is that the availability of sectional times in France has had something to do with their relative success.



CAMELOT NO CERT TO WIN AT EPSOM

CAMELOT (39) overcame some powerful statistical trends to win the 2000 Guineas. He was the first horse older than two sired by Montjeu to win a Group 1 over less than ten furlongs; only the second horse from an estimated 102 runners since 1964 to win the race after not previously scoring over less than a mile; and only the second Racing Post Trophy winner to take the Guineas in the 51 year history of the Doncaster race.

However it should be pointed out that the 2000 Guineas is normally run on fast ground. This year the going was so soft the time was almost six seconds slower than the previous average since 1990 and the slowest overall since Lomond won the race back in 1983.

The soft ground and decent gallop undoubtedly made this year's Guineas much more of a stamina test than normal. Indeed I think future results will show that the first three past the post are going to prove best over ten furlongs plus.

I have to say I really liked the way that Camelot and the runner up French Fifteen surged out of the pack to duel through the last furlong and power clear of their pursuers. Only top class horses can do that.

This being so I was rather disappointed in the time of the race. It merited a speed rating that's just bog standard Group 1 for three year olds this early in the season.

However, looking at the ratings I've awarded 2000 Guineas winners since 2004 below I see that only a couple have run seriously fast and that Camelot's performance isn't that bad. Clearly it's what horses do after winning the Guineas that counts.



2011...Frankel.......................45

2010...Makfi.........................42

2004...Heaved.......................40

2009...Sea The Stars.............40

2008...Henrythenavigator......40

2012...Camelot.....................39

2007...Cockney Rebel..........39

2006...George Washington....38

2005...Footstepsinthesand.....38

In this regard it is interesting to note that Camelot is the only Derby entrant so far this year to have earned a Racing Post rating of 118 or higher. This is significant because twelve of the last thirteen Derby winners previously earned a Racing Post rating of at least 118 that season. Workforce defied this stat in 2010. But it’s worth noting that he had earned the second highest Racing Post rating of all the Derby runners that year.

That said it is early days yet. All the major Derby Trials have still to be run as I write this. And while it's good to know Camelot has hit the crucial benchmark of 118 on Racing Post ratings this hardly guarantees him success at Epsom.

This is shown by the fact that twenty five horses have gone on to run in the Derby after earning Racing Post ratings of 118 or higher in the 2000 Guineas. Only four of the 25 won at Epsom. Here is how they performed;

1988...*Doyoun...................third

...........Charmer...................eleventh

1989...*Nashwan.................WON

1991...Mystiko....................tenth

1992...Silver Wisp...............third

...........Muhtarram................fourth

...........*Rodrigo de Triano....ninth

1993...Barathea...................fifth

1994...*Mister Baileys..........fourth

1995...*Pennekamp..............eleventh

1996...Even Top..................thirteenth

1997...*Entrepreneur............fourth

1998...Border Arrow...........third

...........Haami.......................fourteenth

...........*King Of Kings.........fifteenth

2001...Golan........................second

2002...Hawk Wing...............second

2003...*Refuse To Bend.......thirteenth

2004...Snow Ridge..............seventh

2006...Sir Percy...................WON

2008...New Approach..........WON

2009...*Sea The Stars............WON

...........Rip Van Winkle..........fourth

...........Gan Amhras...............eleventh

2011...Native Khan...............fifth

*Won 2000 Guineas



The Racing Post was first published in 1988. I can only trace the form of Guineas runners fully back for nine years before that. Here is how horses that reached the first three in the Guineas did when they ran in the Derby during this period:



1979....*Tap On Wood.........seventh

1983....Tolomeo....................ninth

...........*Lomond....................sixteenth

1984...*El Gran Senor...........second

1985...Supreme Leader.........fourth

...........*Shadeed...................thirteenth

1986...*Dancing Brave..........second

1987...Bellotto......................third

*Won 2000 Guineas

These stats show that only two of the last fourteen 2000 Guineas winners to run in the Derby have scored. If we assume the same proportion of 200 Guineas winners ran in the Derby before 1989 then 34 won from 110 tries. Clearly Guineas winners are not doing as well in the Derby as they used to.

Worse still, horses that win the Guineas by less than half a length as Camelot did do not have a great record in the Derby.

Since 1853 (the date I first have winning distances for) just four of the fifty horses that won the 2000 Guineas by less than half a length have gone on to win the Derby. 28 of he 109 Guineas winners that won by a bigger margin won the Derby. That's over three times as often.

2000 Guineas winners that won the Derby

with their winning Guineas margin in brackets from 1853

1813...Smolensko

1828...Cadland

1836...Bay Middleton

1843...Cotherstone

1853...West Australian (half a length)

1863...Macaroni (half a length)

1865...Gladiateur (head)

1866...Lord Lyon (1.00 length)

1869...Pretender (half a length)

1882...Shotover (2.00 lengths)

1886...Ormonde (2.00 lengths)

1888...Ayrshire (2.00 lengths)

1891...Common (3.00 lengths)

1893...Isinglass (three quarters of a length)

1894...Ladas (1.50 lengths)

1897...Galtee More (4.00 lengths)

1899...Flying Fox (2.00 lengths)

1900...Diamond Jubilee (4.00 lengths)

1903...Rock Sand (1.50 lengths)

1904...St Amant (4.00 lengths)

1909...Minoru (2.00 lengths)

1911...Sunstar (2.00 lengths)

1915...Pommern (3.00 lengths)

1917...Gay Crusader (neck)

1918...Gainsborough (1.50 lengths)

1925...Manna (2.00 lengths)

1931...Cameronian (2.00 lengths)

1935...Bahram (1.50 lengths)

1939...Blue Peter (half a length)

1949...Nimbus (neck)

1957...Crepello (half a length)

1967...Royal Palace (neck)

1968...Sir Ivor (1.50 lengths)

1970...Nijinsky (2.50 lengths)

1989...Nashwan (1.00 lengths)

2009...Sea The Stars (1.50 lengths)

I am wary of using stats to say Camelot is up against it at Epsom having highlighted the even stronger stats that said he was unlikely to win at Newmarket. But a best priced 5-4 before any of the major Derby Trials have even been run does seem rather stingy for a relatively slow Guineas winner that only won the first Classic in a photo.

There is surely going to be at last one impressive winner in the Chester Vase, the Dee Stakes, the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Dante, the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial or the Prix Hocquart. And that means Camelot's current isolation at the top of the Derby betting is unlikely to last. In other words there's a serious chance his odds will get bigger.

It should also be said that there is some doubt on pedigree about whether Camelot will actually stay a mile and a half despite the strong influence for the distance provided by his sire.

Camelot's dam and her five siblings scored five times out of twenty two over nine furlongs or less but only won a class 6 amateur rider's handicap at Southwell over longer trips.

Camelot's only sibling to race so far has been Ideal, a filly sired by an almost equally strong influence for a mile and a half plus in Galileo. Ideal won the only time she ran over ten furlongs and placed fourth in her two attempts at shorter trips. But she weakened to finish fifth or worse all four times she was asked to run beyond ten furlongs.

Runner up FRENCH FIFTEEN (39) looked sure to win as he sustained his strong effort while duelling with Camelot but just got denied. Clearly there's very little between him and the winner.

French Fifteen has the build of a ten furlong horse. And his two siblings that raced after their two year old season won over ten and eleven furlongs respectively. He got chopped for speed in a sprint finish when second to Abtaal over a mile at two. He also hit got outpaced at one stage when winning a more strongly run race over seven furlongs on his 3YO debut.

This being so the logical thing to do is surely to take up his entry in the Prix du Jockey Club over 10.5f, where he'd probably start favourite. But he's only recently been purchased by the sponsor of the British Champions Series, of which the 2000 Guineas was the first leg. So I suspect he may actually be heading for another leg of the series, the St James's Palace Stakes even though that race often features a sprint finish and is invariably run on lightning fast ground.

I'd bet on French Fifteen being caught flat footed in that race at some point. Later, when he goes ten furlongs, he should do well.

HERMIVAL (38) raced in an isolated small group on the fast side and kept on for third. Like French Fifteen he should stay ten furlongs without any trouble. But he looks a more adaptable type in regards to distance to me. So I can see him doing well if he sticks to a mile for the Irish Guineas. He's now been beaten rather handily twice by French Fifteen and may not be quite up to winning a Group 1.

Fifth placed FENCING (36) ran a most promising race to finish sixth of fifteen over an inadequate distance on unsuitably soft ground when surely in need of the run.

By a Kentucky Derby winner out of a French Oaks winner, Fencing is a rangy middle distance sort that was entered in the following day's Prix Greffulhe over ten furlongs but ran here instead (he's also in the Prix du Jockey Club, Dante and Derby). He ran third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy.

In that race Fencing was in the rear with Camelot when the tempo increased three furlongs out. He picked up well and looked set to edge out Zip Top for second but shifted his ground slightly and missed being runner up by a head (he'd run green on his previous start too).

Trainer John Gosden said before the Racing Post Trophy that he felt Fencing was too green and immature to win at the top level. I wrote at the time that he looked likely to improve over longer distances.

So why did Fencing run in the Guineas over only a mile? It turns out he punctured a foot and missed work. Trainer John Gosden explained before the race "That has put us on the back foot a little but you need to get these horses out. Obviously, it is not ideal. He needs a race and you have to start the season somewhere."

In the circumstances this was a smart run.

Fencing's connections must now decide between going for the Derby via the Dante or shooting for the Prix du Jockey Club. If he were mine I'd choose the French race as the distance looks ideal but it's a close call.

Further back in the field came ABTAAL (35) who moved smoothly in the lead of the far side group most of the way but weakened badly in the closing stages. You could argue that it was the soft ground that found him out but he ran like a non stayer to me. My feeling is that he needs faster ground to last a mile and that a cut back to seven furlongs would be no problem. I just can't fancy him for the Prix du Jockey Club any more after this.



TULLIUS THE ONE TO BEAT IN HUNT CUP

TULLIUS (41) clocked a seriously fast time to win a valuable nine furlong handicap on the Guineas card at Newmarket.

The runner up Memory Cloth was going so well that he looked set to win but Tullius picked up really strongly then kept going best as everything tired kin the final furlong due to the soft ground and strong early pace.

Tullius is clearly best fresh. He lost his racecourse debut but would have won all four times he's run off a break of five weeks or more since if one photo had gone his way.

Trainer Andrew Balding says he plans to keep Tullius fresh for the Hunt Cup which is a smart idea. If he gets a good draw there he's surely going to be tough to beat. If he loses the obvious thing to do is freshen him up and bring him back for the Cambridgeshire over the same course and distance that he won on Saturday.

A couple of years ago second placed MEMORY CLOTH (40) finished a close sixth in a red hot renewal of the Prix de Guiche behind the top class Behkabad. I don't know what went wrong for him to be unraced after that until sold for just 11,000 Euros fourteen months later. But new trainer Brian Ellison has clearly brought him back to his best.

Watching the race on TV I felt Memory Cloth was going so well that it was simply a question of when his jockey pushed the button. However Tullius just kept pulling out more to put up a very good Group 2 class performance. Memory Cloth pulled five lengths clear of the rest of a big field in his efforts to get to the winner but couldn't quite do so.

Ellison plans to aim Memory Cloth at the Cambridgeshire. This means he'll probably need to be lightly raced between now and then to avoid going up too much in the weights.

FURY (38) faced an impossible task trying to give 12 and 14 pounds to the first two and did well to finish third. His official rating is now getting rather big for handicaps.



MEANDRE CAN GIVE FABRE HIS SEVENTH CORONATION CUP

I've written up AL KAZEEM (40) a lot of times because he just keeps running one big race after another. He's now done so again when winning the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket.

Al Kazeem was impressive when he kicked clear in the closing stages despite wandering around as he ran a bit green and got tired.

If he hadn't gotten into all sorts of trouble on his three year old debut and three times run second to horse that put up Group 1 class performances Al Kazeem might well have won his last seven starts.

Although I couldn't award him any better than the Group 2 class ratings he's received from me before I got the impression that Al Kazeem has strengthened and improved since last season. He looks to have a real shot of success at the top level now. And the fact he was able to win on such soft ground certainly opens up new possibilities for him. Previously I thought he was best on a fast surface but clearly I was wrong. The ground doesn’t seem to matter.

Luca Cumani, trainer of the runner up QUEST FOR PEACE (39) says he thinks his horse didn't like the soft ground.

It's interesting to note that Quest For Peace has now won all three times he's run ten furlongs or more on good or faster ground, including when beating the St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

At this stage Quest For Peace looks to be set a stiff task to beat former stablemate St Nicholas Abbey and Meandre in the Coronation Cup at Epsom next time. But his record on fast ground is so good I'm wary of saying he's not up to it.

Globetrotter DUNADEN (38) lost for the first time in four tries outside of France. However it should be borne in mind that this was his seasonal debut and his campaign is being geared towards big international races run in October and later.

Dunaden does seem to peak towards the end of the season. If two photos had gone his way he'd have won the last eight times he's run in October, November and December.

Maxime Guyon rode a good race on fourth placed MEANDRE (37), ensuring that the quirky horse had enough cover to prevent him pulling without asking him to come between runners (which he shies away from). Unfortunately it looks like the ground was too soft for him as he fell back in the closing stages.

This was a good pipe opener for Meandre on unsuitable ground. With this run under his belt he should have a serious chance of giving trainer Andre Fabre his seventh win in the Coronation Cup if the ground comes up as fast as it normally does for that race. I reckon his terrific turn of foot will give him a big chance of beating the likely favourite St Nicholas Abbey there.



MARINER'S CROSS A SOLID DERBY CANDIDATE

NOBLE MISSION (38) made the expected improvement for the step up to ten furlongs when winning the Listed Newmarket Stakes at the Guineas meeting. He pulled hard briefly against the moderate early pace and was more settled when the front runner started to go a bit faster. He then picked up well to go past the leader and win a shade cosily in a tight three-way finish.

My instinct after watching the replay several times was that Noble Mission is not quite a Group 1 horse. Of course it's too early to say for sure, but my impression was that if Noble Mission had been involved in a prolonged battle with a good horse like the one in the Investec Derby Trial won by Goldoni he'd have been found wanting.

Runner up was the Godolphin colt MARINER'S CROSS (38) who impressed me as the horse to take out of the race. He's a good-bodied, mature sort who looks built for a mile and a half plus but had the gears to win the Wood Ditton over a mile on his debut. For a big horse he's very manouverable and has shown that he can accelerate rapidly in both his starts. This is no doubt party because he's so well balanced and neatly put together.

When Mariner's Cross quickened up to take the lead a furlong and a half out he looked likely to win. But he'd been racing with his head a little high and appeared rather unfocused. In addition it looked like Mariner's Cross was not getting through the soft ground as well as his rivals. So he eventually got passed and beaten a neck.

What I liked about this run particularly was the way Mariner's Cross's head came down when the winner had gone past. This suggests he didn't like being out in front for so long and will do better when held up for a later run in future.

The dam of Mariner's Cross scored all her three wins over two miles on what race times suggest was good or faster ground. She ran a clunker the sole time she encountered mud. His only sibling scored his one win over hurdles on good to firm. So his pedigree backs up the visual impression that he's a fast ground performer who should improve for the step up to a mile and a half just like he improved for the step up to ten furlongs.

I have to say that I'd like Mariner's Cross to have had one more run to gain experience before the Derby. But he's not entered for anything. And actually horses with just two or three runs to their name have done really well in the Derby. So it makes sense to let the horse make the likely improvement in the Derby itself rather than wasting it prematurely in another prep while the ground may still be on the slow side for him.

Right now Mandaean appears to be seen as Godolphin's main Derby hope judged by the ante-post betting. But Mandaean is in fact Godolphin's sole remaining entry for the valuable Derby Italiano on May 20th, so it looks like he's heading elsewhere. I prefer Mariner's Cross anyway and see the 33-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Derby as great value each way.

Trainer John Gosden has an amazing knack of producing smart St Leger candidates. He's had four winners and a second from the seven years he's had a runner in the final Classic.

Two of Gosden's four St Leger winners didn't start their careers until they were three and took in the King Edward VII Stakes on their way to Classic success. That looks to be the path for MICHELANGELO (38) following his very promising third here on his racecourse debut.

Noble Mission is a rangy, long striding sort that's built and bred for longer than the ten furlongs he tackled here. He kept on very strongly but was just beaten by two very useful rivals.

Shantou, Lucarno and Arctic Cosmos didn't quite win the King Edward VII Stakes prior to tackling the St Leger. Maybe Michelangelo can.

Fourth placed STENCIVE (36) raced in horribly disorganised fashion and clearly needs more experience. He's built to appreciate the step up to a mile and a half and shows knee action just like his half brother Joshua Tree.

Joshua Tree stays a mile and a half well but doesn't seem to need the soft ground his stride pattern suggests. My bet is that will turn out to be true for Stencive as well. He looks sure to improve and may well be Group class.

MISTER MUSIC (34) was the one to beat on my ratings. He moved smoothly in the lead, quickened the pace a quarter mile out but then got headed half a furlong later and stopped to nothing. His jockey allowed him to come home in his own time in the last furlong and he finished stone last.

A similar thing happened on Mister Music's final 2YO start at Pontefract. So my best bet is that he bled both times and is going to need breaks of at least five weeks between his runs from now on to produce his best. That's the norm for bleeders once they've had their first two starts of the season. This was Mister Music's third run this year, and they've been packed into a spread of just seventeen days.

From a betting point of view I like this run because many will take it as a knock on the form of Goldoni who beat Mister Music in the Investec Derby Trial. Goldoni is due to run in the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday and I'm now starting to think he could go off at a very decent price in a race where I think he has a major chance.





IZZI TOP CAN WIN A GROUP 1

Thanks to the introduction of a decent programme of races for them a lot more top class middle distances fillies are staying in training in Europe after three years of age. Last year's Oaks third IZZI TOP (39) is such a horse and strutted her stuff in the Group 3 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket.

The nine furlongs was clearly only just far enough for Izzi Top as it took a while to assert her superiority. But she was going away nicely at the finish.

Izzi Top looks to have grown and strengthened more than most from three to four. She's now a good-bodied, muscular, attractive sort.

Last year I questioned whether Izzi Top truly stayed the mile and a half in the Oaks. What I saw here made me think that she will now have no problem going that far,

Apart from the Oaks the only loss Izzi Top has suffered since her racecourse debut was on ground that her trainer feels was too firm. She beat the Oaks winner Dancing Rain on officially good to firm ground at Newbury. But the going stick read 7.3 that day, indicating it was actually good. It was soft when she won in France and good to soft here. I'm going to be wary of supporting her when the going stick reads much higher than 7.3 in future until she's shown she can produce her best on such ground.

If she keeps on running in the big fillies races over 10-12 furlongs it's surely just a matter of time before Izzi Top wins a Group 1.

CAPTIVATOR (38) looked a big threat a furlong out but couldn't go with the winner. She seems to get into traffic problems quite a lot in big fields and has a smart record in single figure fields like this. I'd therefore say it's a smart move to target the Windsor Forest Stakes with her next time as the straight course will ease the traffic problems just as it did here.





SIX FURLONGS BETTER FOR MAYSON

MAYSON (41) was always going strongly in the Palace House Stakes. However there was a point just after halfway when the pace was really strong that he looked to be in a bit of trouble. Luckily the effects of the soft ground and the scorching pace eventually told and he was able to dominate his rivals in the closing stages.

As a two year old Mayson won over Hamilton's very stiff five furlongs. Other than that though he'd lost all four times he'd gone the minimum distance before this win. This being so trainer Richard Fahey is surely right in planning to keep Mayson to six furlongs from now on. He's aiming him at the Duke Of York followed by the July Cup.

On my ratings Mayson is the one to beat at York and a proper Group 1 horse. There does remain a slight question about whether he needs a bit of cut in the ground. Hopefully the Duke Of York will provide us with an answer to that.



HOMECOMING QUEEN SMART IN MUD

HOMECOMING QUEEN (38) set a good pace and simply ran away from her rivals to take the 1000 Guineas by nine lengths.

The win surprised me because she's only small and hadn't run that fast before. But on closer inspection I now see that she has a remarkable record softer ground. Toss out her seasonal debut (which I'm betting she needed) and her record in other races on ground that race times indicate was yielding of softer would show five wins out of five but for a photo finish loss against the useful Coral Wave. She's lost all eight times she's run on a faster surface.

If she gets her ground in the Irish Guineas Homecoming Queen will have a great chance of pulling off a Classic double. Longer term she'll surely want to be going further than a mile as she's a long striding sort that won this largely on superior stamina. One obvious target is the Irish Oaks, a race where the ground has been good to yielding or softer for the last five years in a row......
 
MOVE TO STRIKE A TOP CLASS 2YO

MOVE TO STRIKE (37) put up an amazing performance to take a Curragh juvenile maiden by nine lengths in what I rate Group 1 time for a two year old. He ran each of the last five furlongs much faster than they went in any of the seven furlong races on the same card.

In the closing stages Move To Strike simply powered away from his opposition with little urging.

Clearly Move To Strike improved a good deal for his promising debut third to the Group class Forrester. I suspect one reason for this is that the soft ground and strong pace made the six furlongs ride more like seven as he's built and bred to stay a mile.

Move To Strike is a good bodied, mature sort that is surely going to be tough to beat in any race he contests in the foreseeable future.



MAYBE IT WASN'T THE PACE THAT BEAT ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

In any race involving pacemakers there's always the danger that they'll be given too much of a head start at too slow a pace.

This is arguably what happened in the Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh. Coolemore's pacemaking duo Windsor Palace (35) and Robin Hood were allowed to reach halfway 1.2 seconds slower than they did in the following 50-80 handicap. From that point they quickened up to run the next two furlongs two and a half seconds faster than the handicappers, opening up a big gap on their pursuers in the process.

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (34) was faced with a near impossible task to close the huge gap and did well to get up to run second by a length.

It looked horrible. But maybe it wasn't just the way the race was run that beat St Nicholas Abbey. He got beat even further over the same course and distance in a mere Listed race thirteen months ago.

You could argue that ten furlongs is a bit too short for St Nicholas Abbey. But he's shown serious finishing speed in slow run twelve furlong races to win the Breeders' Cup Turf and run a head second to the world's highest rated middle distance horse in the Sheema Classic. So I reckon he can be effective over ten furlongs.

To run so far below his best here I feel there may well be another explanation and this could be that St Nicholas Abbey is much better going left handed.

St Nicholas Abbey won twice around the right handed dog leg at the Curragh as a two year old. But around a full right hand turn he has now lost five times out of five - without showing anything near his best on my ratings in any of those five races.

Around left handed turns St Nicholas Abbey has won three times out of four - with his sole loss being that head second in the Sheema Classic.

I'd bet on St Nicholas Abbey bouncing back to his best around left handed Epsom next time when he tackles the Coronation Cup. He'll be up against the very smart Meandre there and might just lose out, but I'm sure he will run far better than he did here.

METAL ROCKET LOOKS A PRIX DE DIANE CANDIDATE

METAL ROCKET (37) clocked a good time to win a storngly run conditions race over a mile on soft ground at Saint-Cloud. This rangy filly is built for ten furlongs and clearly appreciated the stronger pace and slower ground which made this more of a stamina test than her last start where she finished lengths fourth in a ratehr hot race over the same course and distance.

Metal Rocket is in the Prix de Diane which is shaping up to be a red hot race this year. She should improve for the step up in distance in that race and will surely take something decent before then.



KESAMPOUR STRUGGLES WITH THE CUT BACK TO TEN FURLONGS

KESAMPOUR (37) is built and bred for a mile and a half. So it's not that surprising he ran a bit below his best when cut back half a furlong for the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe over ten furlongs at Saint-Cloud. His pacemaker set a strong pace and the ground was soft but he still struggled to fend off his opponents in a long, driving bunch finish.

Kesampour is now unbeaten in four starts and I've no doubt he will improve for the step up to a mile and a half in the Derby. But if he was truly top class he would surely have shown a better turn of foot than he did here. I think he's got a good chance of reaching the first four at Epsom but feel he won't quite have the finishing speed to win.



SOLEMIA VERY UNLUCKY

I've mentioned before that ALLIED POWERS (38) is tough to beat in the first week of June or earlier. Toss out his seasonal debuts and his form figures over 11f plus on turf in this period shows seven wins from nine tries. He scored his latest win when scrambling home in a sprint finish for the Prix d'Hedouville. But he looked awfully lucky to beat SOLEMIA (36).

Solemia had earned a Group 1 class speed rating from me when hosing up over the course and distance on her previous outing. This time around she was crusiing throughout the contest. But it became apparent rounding the home turn that she was totally boxed in with nowhere to go.

Olivier Peslier got increasingly desperate to find racing room, switching Solemia sharply towards the rail with only a furlong left. She began to surge forward but to be snatched up brutally as the gap closed on her, losing loads of momentum and her chance of winning.

I have no doubt that Solemia would have won this race impressively if only she'd been able to get clear. But it's worth mentioning that this is not the first time she's had trouble finding a run. My feeling is she'd be better suited by the stronger early pace and longer homestraights to be found in Britain and Ireland. Failing that she surely needs to be equipped with a pacemaker in future to ensure she's not asked to gain ground into a wild sprint finish as she was here.

Solemia may well be the best middle distance filly in Europe. The Yorkshire Oaks would surely be a slam dunk for her thanks to the lengthy homestraight at York. I can't see how she'd have trouble finding a run there.
 
Most of you listen to Nick so hopefully he has a better chance of getting across Camelot's poor performance that I can.

I've really struggled to get my opinions across even though they have been passionate and heart felt.

Stubborn but intelligent crowd, I wish Nick all the best.
 
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He's also put up Move To Strike, I had a hard time trying to tell the Irish bandwagon here that they would struggle to find a better 2yo but I wish Nick all the best in convincing some.

Again, I talk rubbish and can be considered an internet troll by the mass majority.

I'd call it jealousy and spitefulness though.
 
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Beware the memories of Entrepreneur ! A Saddlers Wells 2000gns winner that looked as if he only had to show up at Epsom to win; only he didnt. 4/7 to boot. Camelot's head hanging to the right late in the race something to be concerned about or not ?
 
edgt said:
Beware the memories of Entrepreneur ! A Saddlers Wells 2000gns winner that looked as if he only had to show up at Epsom to win; only he didnt. 4/7 to boot. Camelot's head hanging to the right late in the race something to be concerned about or not ?
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its possible he could bomb in the Derby yes..but when they find his ideal trip..be it 10f or 12 he will be difficult to beat
 
On The Bridle said:
I believe Camelot's performance to be very good also. Time may show him to be a very very good colt.
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I decided that the 5/4 was good enough in the end to find out. He has won the Guineas in good style performing almost against his inherent strengths. I'm as sure as I can be that he will develop into a very fine middle distance animal and the way it's going those likely to line up against him don't look all that at the moment.
 
EC1 said:
its possible he could bomb in the Derby yes..but when they find his ideal trip..be it 10f or 12 he will be difficult to beat
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I'd agree it's possible for almost any horse to get beaten in the Derby. Even Dancing Brave didn't quite manage it. Things can go wrong. But Camelot is a fairly broad spectrum horse with regard to stamina aptitude and should win over a range of distances taking 10 and 12 furlongs pretty much alike.
 
Wouldn't be in a hurry to take 5/4 myself - as the race of the day, the bookmakers look bound to compete to lay him, and he may well be that price - with a run guaranteed - for the early birds.
 
SteveM said:
I'd agree it's possible for almost any horse to get beaten in the Derby. Even Dancing Brave didn't quite manage it. Things can go wrong. But Camelot is a fairly broad spectrum horse with regard to stamina aptitude and should win over a range of distances taking 10 and 12 furlongs pretty much alike.
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To be fair Shahrastani was a good one in his own right. DB would have overhauled an average winner of the race.
 
Euronymous said:
To be fair Shahrastani was a good one in his own right. DB would have overhauled an average winner of the race.
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I’m not knocking the winner. But things can go wrong. The irony is that it was Eddery who blocked him on Wise Counsellor (finished last) just as Starkey began his move from the rear. He had left it late anyway and had to pull DB wide. He covered the final quarter in an astonishing time and would have beaten anything had he had got out in time. Starkey was widely criticised after the race for riding him like a non-stayer and was subsequently replaced by Eddery.
 
SteveM said:
I’m not knocking the winner. But things can go wrong. The irony is that it was Eddery who blocked him on Wise Counsellor (finished last) just as Starkey began his move from the rear. He had left it late anyway and had to pull DB wide. He covered the final quarter in an astonishing time and would have beaten anything had he had got out in time. Starkey was widely criticised after the race for riding him like a non-stayer and was subsequently replaced by Eddery.
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But not for a while. Starkey was on board for the Eclipse and lost the King George ride only through suspension, which is when Eddery first took the ride. Even then, Starkey rode Dancing Brave in a Goodwood prep race for the Arc in September before Eddery became the jockey of choice in time for Paris.
 
prince regent said:
unfairly in my opinion i dont think db was suited by the track
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Only in the sense that no horse is suited by Epsom. I don’t think we can be looking to the track as an excuse when he came home like an arrow in the fastest final quarter seen. There were plenty in the race that didn’t handle it as well. At the end of the day if he had been ridden even a bit differently (like he actually got the trip) and/or had not been blocked by Eddery when he made his initial move (all to late) he would have won and won well, Shahrastani or no Shahrastani.

Unfair to blame Starkey?... yes and no. They weren’t sure he’d stay (many pundits reckoned he wouldn’t get a mile and a half in a horse box as he had shown so much speed in the Guineas, which was all they knew) so he was trying to conserve his stamina, which is fair enough. But he left it so late that he faced a near impossible task where the least interference to him would have prevented victory, which proved to be the case.
 
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