The thoughts of Nick Mordin.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
FANTASTIC MOON GOOD MIDDLE DISTANCE PROSPECT
FANTASTIC MOON (35) only clocked a time that's par for a 2yo Group 3 when winning the Solario Stakes. But his physique and the way he won makes me confident he'll be able to win better races in time.
Fantastic Moon is rather immature but clearly has the build and pedigree of a middle distance horse. Ridden with utmost confidence by William Buick, he was stone last turning in but cruising. He still had the entire field in front of him with only a furlong left but produced a tremendous burst of speed down the wide outside to get up and win going away by a head. He was full of running crossing the line.
The strong early pace clearly brought Fantastic Moon's stamina into play here. But the fact he was able to win a Group 3 over just seven furlongs says a lot for his future prospects.
The horse's connections talked about going for the Royal Lodge or the Racing Post Trophy with this unbeaten colt. I can see him going well in either of those races as they'd offer him the chance to go an extra furlong.
Next year I can readily see Fantastic Moon winning a Derby Trial.
QUIXOTE CAN WIN MUCH BETTER RACES
QUIXOTE (36) clocked a time that would win many Listed races when wining a good class 4 handicap over ten furlongs at Sandown. This strong, good-bodied colt was going a lot more easily than any of his rivals with three furlongs to run. He was in front soon after the two furlong pole but began to drift towards the rail once in the clear. His ears were pricked and he looked full of run, but he seemed to idle and run a bit green so didn't kick as far clear as it looked like he'd do initially.
It looks like the application of a tongue tie has improved Quixote. He probably choked when losing by 75 lengths at Newmarket and that's why a tongue tie was tried next time when he went under by just a short head.
Quixote is well ahead of the handicapper on my ratings. So he ought to be able to follow up this win. He'd also make a really good juvenile hurdler as he's got the build for the Winter game.
FESTIVE CHEER LOOKS GROUP CLASS
I can only award FESTIVE CHEER (33) a rating that's barely Listed class for a juvenile as a result of his win in a Dundalk maiden. And I’ve had to use my sectional timing formula to make his rating that high. However I'm sure he could have run faster in a more truly run race or with better opposition.
Festive Cheer just lobbed along in third and was still moving easily as the sprint for home began just before the three furlong marker. He wasn’t asked for his effort till just before the furlong pole. But when he was switched out for his run he produced a brilliant turn of foot to run the final furlong in eleven seconds flat. He ran the final three furlongs in just 33.3 seconds.
This is a well proportioned, athletic, classy sort that is built and bred for middle distances. So it's amazing he was able to show enough pace to win a seven furlong race off a slow early gallop in this fashion. Clearly he has seriously good acceleration.
Like most horses with a good turn of foot, my bet is that Festive Cheer is going to prove best on a fast surface. Indeed he flopped on soft ground first time out. Though I should add trainer Aidan O'Brien says that was mostly because he was so green.
This is just the sort of horse O'Brien could win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf with. In fact, if he gets fast ground I can see him being a threat to win pretty much anything. Next year he's surely going to be one of Coolmore's main Derby prospects.
MAYBE DANEDREAM CAN PULL OFF THE DOUBLE
I predicted that DANEDREAM (40) might have a hard race in the Grosser Preis von Baden and that this might well lessen her chances of pulling off the Arc double. But now that she's gone and scrambled home by just half a length in Germany's biggest race I', starting to have second thoughts.
First of all there was a sprint finish to the Grosser Preis von Baden. So the race can't have taken much out of Danedream.
Secondly, although it's early days with the big Longchamp Arc trials still to come, Danedream's opposition for the Arc is starting to look weaker. The idea of Frankel running was knocked on the head earlier this week and the top 3yo filly Valyra sadly died. In addition it has to be said that O'Brien's three year olds are invariably suffering from burn out by the time the Arc rolls around, so I don't like the chances of the current Arc favourite Camelot. Then we have Nathaniel, Imperial Monarch, Sea Moon, Masterstroke and Beauty Parlour who surely lack the push-button acceleration normally needed to win the Arc. There's also St Nicholas Abbey who is not a sure starter and has lost the last six times he's run right handed. Finally there is Meandre who dislikes being crowded in big fields.
So all in all, though I'm expecting a big change in the Arc betting after the Niel, Foy and Vermeille are run on the sixteenth, Danedream is now starting to look rather more interesting.
At Baden-Baden Danedream's jockey Andrasch Starke made a bee line for the stands rail coming off the home turn. This was necessary because Danedream has shown in the past that she wanders unless she has a rail to race against on her right hand side. Once she was in the lead there she kept on strongly to prevail by half a length. The manouver and the sprint finish caused her to run about three lengths a mile off her best on my ratings. But she was good enough to win anyway.
The manouver that Strake made on Danedream is often possible at Baden-Baden due to the ultra tight home turn throwing the runners wide. On other left hand courses she's lost three times out of three. But she's won the last seven times she's run on right hand tracks or at Baden-Baden.
Runner up OVAMBO QUEEN (40) was able to get close to Danedream due to the great mare running below form, just as she had at the same track earlier in the season. She's wonderfully consistent and bang there with the top fillies and mares. I like the idea her connections mooted of going for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf as US turf races are run in a similar way to German ones - i.e. sprint finishes around tight tracks.
Third placed PASTORIUS (39) moved strongly in the early stages. In fact he was pulling hard, causing his jockey to lean back in the saddle and pull on the reins in an effort to restrain him. He looked a serious threat when he began his run in the straight but couldn't quite muster the extra bit of acceleration needed to get to the winner.
Pastorius continues to look smart. But he's now earned the same rating of 39 from me three times in a row. That's good in the context of this year's remarkably weak crop of three year old males. However he's going to have to up his game to win another Group 1.
It's fascinating to note that Pastorius is the only three year old to win a Group 1 against older males all season in Europe. In the previous sixteen years there were only four where three year olds failed to win less than five Group 1's against older males by this point in the season, and the lowest total was three races (in 1997 and 2007).
It is also interesting to note that in two of the previous four seasons that three year olds had racked up less than five wins by this time against older males in Group 1's an older horse won the Arc. Seeing that there have only been three wins scored by older horses in the Arc since 1993 this looks significant - and again underlines the chances of older Arc runners such as Danedream.
Fourth placed NOVELLIST (38) looked brilliant when running away with the Union-Rennen earlier in the season. He earned a rating of 41 from me that day. So it was understandable he started odds on for the German Derby where he got beat half a length by Pastorius. He ran even further below his best here but there were arguably some excuses.
Novellist had been off for nine weeks and may well have needed the run. In addition he pulled hard against the slow early pace. He looked a threat briefly rounding the home turn but failed to pick up and was not given a hard time in the final furlong once it became clear he couldn't go with the first three.
I'm prepared to give Novellist another chance or two to show that he can recover the smart form he showed in the Union Rennen. His only future entry is in the Preis von Europa on the 23rd of this month. He should be able to win that after which I imagine he'll be put away till next season since German horses don't tend to be asked to tackle international races till they're four.
HIGHLAND KNIGHT IS SERIOUSLY GOOD LEFT HANDED
It's easy to believe that by the time a horse is five years old you should know pretty much everything worth knowing about it. But I have to confess HIGHLAND KNIGHT (41) took me by surprise when winning German's top mile race, the Darley Oettingen-Rennen at Baden-Baden in fast time.
The surprise came after the race trainer when Andrew Balding explained that Highland Knight hangs to his left. This clearly explains why the horse has now won four of the five times he's run on left handed tracks, with his sole loss being a smart second to high class Dance And Dance. On right handed or straight courses he's only won once from sixteen tries.
Highland Knight settled second behind a strong gallop and steadily kicked further clear in the closing stages. It was a borderline Group 1 class performance on my ratings.
I don't know whether Highland Knight can show the same level of form off the slower early gallop that's the norm in America. But he certainly deserves a shot at the Shadwell Mile, which is run on left-handed course (as are all US races). Next year the plan is to aim him at the Godolphin Mile at left-handed Meydan.
If Highland Knight adapts to US conditions he'll be a big threat to win the Shadwell Mile, almost certainly at big odds.
FANTASTIC MOON (35) only clocked a time that's par for a 2yo Group 3 when winning the Solario Stakes. But his physique and the way he won makes me confident he'll be able to win better races in time.
Fantastic Moon is rather immature but clearly has the build and pedigree of a middle distance horse. Ridden with utmost confidence by William Buick, he was stone last turning in but cruising. He still had the entire field in front of him with only a furlong left but produced a tremendous burst of speed down the wide outside to get up and win going away by a head. He was full of running crossing the line.
The strong early pace clearly brought Fantastic Moon's stamina into play here. But the fact he was able to win a Group 3 over just seven furlongs says a lot for his future prospects.
The horse's connections talked about going for the Royal Lodge or the Racing Post Trophy with this unbeaten colt. I can see him going well in either of those races as they'd offer him the chance to go an extra furlong.
Next year I can readily see Fantastic Moon winning a Derby Trial.
QUIXOTE CAN WIN MUCH BETTER RACES
QUIXOTE (36) clocked a time that would win many Listed races when wining a good class 4 handicap over ten furlongs at Sandown. This strong, good-bodied colt was going a lot more easily than any of his rivals with three furlongs to run. He was in front soon after the two furlong pole but began to drift towards the rail once in the clear. His ears were pricked and he looked full of run, but he seemed to idle and run a bit green so didn't kick as far clear as it looked like he'd do initially.
It looks like the application of a tongue tie has improved Quixote. He probably choked when losing by 75 lengths at Newmarket and that's why a tongue tie was tried next time when he went under by just a short head.
Quixote is well ahead of the handicapper on my ratings. So he ought to be able to follow up this win. He'd also make a really good juvenile hurdler as he's got the build for the Winter game.
FESTIVE CHEER LOOKS GROUP CLASS
I can only award FESTIVE CHEER (33) a rating that's barely Listed class for a juvenile as a result of his win in a Dundalk maiden. And I’ve had to use my sectional timing formula to make his rating that high. However I'm sure he could have run faster in a more truly run race or with better opposition.
Festive Cheer just lobbed along in third and was still moving easily as the sprint for home began just before the three furlong marker. He wasn’t asked for his effort till just before the furlong pole. But when he was switched out for his run he produced a brilliant turn of foot to run the final furlong in eleven seconds flat. He ran the final three furlongs in just 33.3 seconds.
This is a well proportioned, athletic, classy sort that is built and bred for middle distances. So it's amazing he was able to show enough pace to win a seven furlong race off a slow early gallop in this fashion. Clearly he has seriously good acceleration.
Like most horses with a good turn of foot, my bet is that Festive Cheer is going to prove best on a fast surface. Indeed he flopped on soft ground first time out. Though I should add trainer Aidan O'Brien says that was mostly because he was so green.
This is just the sort of horse O'Brien could win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf with. In fact, if he gets fast ground I can see him being a threat to win pretty much anything. Next year he's surely going to be one of Coolmore's main Derby prospects.
MAYBE DANEDREAM CAN PULL OFF THE DOUBLE
I predicted that DANEDREAM (40) might have a hard race in the Grosser Preis von Baden and that this might well lessen her chances of pulling off the Arc double. But now that she's gone and scrambled home by just half a length in Germany's biggest race I', starting to have second thoughts.
First of all there was a sprint finish to the Grosser Preis von Baden. So the race can't have taken much out of Danedream.
Secondly, although it's early days with the big Longchamp Arc trials still to come, Danedream's opposition for the Arc is starting to look weaker. The idea of Frankel running was knocked on the head earlier this week and the top 3yo filly Valyra sadly died. In addition it has to be said that O'Brien's three year olds are invariably suffering from burn out by the time the Arc rolls around, so I don't like the chances of the current Arc favourite Camelot. Then we have Nathaniel, Imperial Monarch, Sea Moon, Masterstroke and Beauty Parlour who surely lack the push-button acceleration normally needed to win the Arc. There's also St Nicholas Abbey who is not a sure starter and has lost the last six times he's run right handed. Finally there is Meandre who dislikes being crowded in big fields.
So all in all, though I'm expecting a big change in the Arc betting after the Niel, Foy and Vermeille are run on the sixteenth, Danedream is now starting to look rather more interesting.
At Baden-Baden Danedream's jockey Andrasch Starke made a bee line for the stands rail coming off the home turn. This was necessary because Danedream has shown in the past that she wanders unless she has a rail to race against on her right hand side. Once she was in the lead there she kept on strongly to prevail by half a length. The manouver and the sprint finish caused her to run about three lengths a mile off her best on my ratings. But she was good enough to win anyway.
The manouver that Strake made on Danedream is often possible at Baden-Baden due to the ultra tight home turn throwing the runners wide. On other left hand courses she's lost three times out of three. But she's won the last seven times she's run on right hand tracks or at Baden-Baden.
Runner up OVAMBO QUEEN (40) was able to get close to Danedream due to the great mare running below form, just as she had at the same track earlier in the season. She's wonderfully consistent and bang there with the top fillies and mares. I like the idea her connections mooted of going for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf as US turf races are run in a similar way to German ones - i.e. sprint finishes around tight tracks.
Third placed PASTORIUS (39) moved strongly in the early stages. In fact he was pulling hard, causing his jockey to lean back in the saddle and pull on the reins in an effort to restrain him. He looked a serious threat when he began his run in the straight but couldn't quite muster the extra bit of acceleration needed to get to the winner.
Pastorius continues to look smart. But he's now earned the same rating of 39 from me three times in a row. That's good in the context of this year's remarkably weak crop of three year old males. However he's going to have to up his game to win another Group 1.
It's fascinating to note that Pastorius is the only three year old to win a Group 1 against older males all season in Europe. In the previous sixteen years there were only four where three year olds failed to win less than five Group 1's against older males by this point in the season, and the lowest total was three races (in 1997 and 2007).
It is also interesting to note that in two of the previous four seasons that three year olds had racked up less than five wins by this time against older males in Group 1's an older horse won the Arc. Seeing that there have only been three wins scored by older horses in the Arc since 1993 this looks significant - and again underlines the chances of older Arc runners such as Danedream.
Fourth placed NOVELLIST (38) looked brilliant when running away with the Union-Rennen earlier in the season. He earned a rating of 41 from me that day. So it was understandable he started odds on for the German Derby where he got beat half a length by Pastorius. He ran even further below his best here but there were arguably some excuses.
Novellist had been off for nine weeks and may well have needed the run. In addition he pulled hard against the slow early pace. He looked a threat briefly rounding the home turn but failed to pick up and was not given a hard time in the final furlong once it became clear he couldn't go with the first three.
I'm prepared to give Novellist another chance or two to show that he can recover the smart form he showed in the Union Rennen. His only future entry is in the Preis von Europa on the 23rd of this month. He should be able to win that after which I imagine he'll be put away till next season since German horses don't tend to be asked to tackle international races till they're four.
HIGHLAND KNIGHT IS SERIOUSLY GOOD LEFT HANDED
It's easy to believe that by the time a horse is five years old you should know pretty much everything worth knowing about it. But I have to confess HIGHLAND KNIGHT (41) took me by surprise when winning German's top mile race, the Darley Oettingen-Rennen at Baden-Baden in fast time.
The surprise came after the race trainer when Andrew Balding explained that Highland Knight hangs to his left. This clearly explains why the horse has now won four of the five times he's run on left handed tracks, with his sole loss being a smart second to high class Dance And Dance. On right handed or straight courses he's only won once from sixteen tries.
Highland Knight settled second behind a strong gallop and steadily kicked further clear in the closing stages. It was a borderline Group 1 class performance on my ratings.
I don't know whether Highland Knight can show the same level of form off the slower early gallop that's the norm in America. But he certainly deserves a shot at the Shadwell Mile, which is run on left-handed course (as are all US races). Next year the plan is to aim him at the Godolphin Mile at left-handed Meydan.
If Highland Knight adapts to US conditions he'll be a big threat to win the Shadwell Mile, almost certainly at big odds.
Matthew Tester came in for some criticism at the time. But I actually found myself defending him over this. Extract:
As sympathetic as I am to the idea that Frankel is, and will go on to prove, superior to Dream Ahead, I can’t help thinking the reaction is a little unfair on BHA handicapper Matthew Tester.
It is not the job of the handicapper to express a preference, but rather to rate a horse according to the mark it appears to have run to – being dispassionate in appraising the value of the performance on a prescribed scale.
While I am in no doubt there is plenty more to come from Frankel and that he is a breathtakingly talented colt, I am equally prepared to believe Dream Ahead matched what we have seen so far from his rival when putting his field to the sword by nine lengths in the Middle Park.
The fact that Dream Ahead did not reproduce his own Middle Park form in the Dewhurst should not detract from his brilliance in the earlier race.
Simon Turner declares Frankel to be the most impressive juvenile he has handicapped in his nine years of assessing two-year-olds.
Yet, significantly, he has Dream Ahead on 125, just 2lb behind his own mark for Frankel on 127 and just 1lb different from the WTR rating of 126 for the pair. Despite Turner’s expressed sense of injustice, he clearly also rated Dream Ahead’s performance in the Middle Park as something out of the ordinary.
We are told by Willoughby that Tester had Dream Ahead on 128 and Frankel on 122 going into the Dewhurst. After the race, in which Frankel was impressive (with Dream Ahead some seven lengths behind) Tester appears to have reappraised Frankel's Royal Lodge performance to 126 – above his rating for him in the Dewhurst (of 125). In order to square the circle, it appears Tester chose to bump up Frankel’s mark in hindsight while climbing down from his position on Dream Ahead, making them equal.
It would be kinder to see this as a reappraisal rather than “fudging it”. What was Tester to do? If he had dropped Dream Ahead a pound or two below the rating of Frankel it would have no doubt been the popular solution. However, his job is not to win popularity contests, but rather to remain as objective as he can about the extant evidence.
If he got it wrong in the first place then he got it wrong, but it seems to me that Dream Ahead put up a high calibre performance in the Middle Park (very close, if not the same, as Frankel in the Royal Lodge) that he subsequently failed to live up to in the Dewhurst. Consequently, it seems very possible that one colt has not actually run any better than the other ... yet.
Like many others, I fully expect Frankel to prove his superiority next term, but would be hard pressed to say the handicapper had got it wrong this time.
SEM January 2011
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...728/shadwell-middle-park-stakes-group-1/video
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
DANDINO DESERVED THIS
DANDINO (39) showed a decent turn of foot to clock just under 36 seconds for the final three furlongs when winning the Group 3 September Stakes over 12 furlongs on Kempton's Polytrack off a moderate early pace. He picked up well under pressure to forge clear in the closing stages.
If three losses by half a length or less had gone his way Dandino would have won nine of the ten times he's run 10-12 furlongs below Group 1 class on a fast surface. And he's shown in Germany, Britain and Japan that he can get to within six or seven lengths of the very best horses in Group 1 events.
Dandino is a solid Group 2 horse that might just sneak a weak Group 1 if he got his ground. He'd be an interesting contender for the valuable American St Leger if he stays in training next year. This time around I'd be entering him for the Turf Classic, the Canadian International, the Gran Premio del Jockey Club and the Breeders' Cup Turf and running him in whichever of them features fast ground and a relatively weak field. If he stays below Group 1 class and encounters a fast surface he'll be hard to beat.
NATHANIEL LACKS THE ACCELERATION NEEDED FOR THE ARC
NATHANIEL (43) is one of the best horses we've seen in recent years. But he does have one weakness and that is a lack of acceleration. This was apparent when he ran yet another brilliant race but lost the Irish Champion Stakes. Both the winner and the third placed horse gained more than three lengths on him up the two and a half furlong homestraight at Leopardstown.
Jockey William Buick adopted what looked a smart strategy by tracking the Coolmore pacemaker before kicking on into the lead with Nathaniel two furlongs out. But his mount lacked the turn of foot needed to hold off Snow Fairy who went on to win by over a length.
The next race Nathaniel contests will be the Arc where his lack of acceleration is likely to be an even greater disadvantage. This is due to the long downhill run to a furlong out at Longchamp which prompts a sprint finish or something close to it however strong the early gallop.
The one hope for Nathaniel in the Arc is the once in a decade soft ground that enabled Workforce to win the big French back in 2010. This would slow the closing stages down and give him a shot.
In fact Nathaniel's only loss in four tries on yielding or softer ground was a half length defeat by the mighty Frankel. On good or faster ground his only win in five tries came in a weak three runner maiden.
The winner SNOW FAIRY (44) is a magnificent mare, one of the best in the last couple of decades on my ratings. But she's by a miler out of a seven furlong performer. This probably explains why she seems best over trips short of a mile and a half on tracks with relatively short runs ins and without uphill finishes. Clearly she has stamina limitations.
Snow Fairy has lost all nine times she's tackled tracks with steep uphill finishes or homestraights of half a mile or more. But she's won nine of the twelve times she's run on tracks with homestraights less than half a mile which aren't steeply uphill. One of her losses was a third place finish over twelve furlongs in the Arc. Another came when she ran second at Goodwood in the Nassau Stakes around the bottom bend where the homestraight is only just shy of half a mile. The third was by just half a length in the Irish Champion Stakes last year.
Snow Fairy is so good she's been able to win two Group 1's over a mile and a half - admittedly against 3yo fillies. But her best run in five tries over 12 furlongs or more earned her a rating of 40 from me. That's only good Group 2 class.
The nature of European racing is such that it doesn't provide many suitable opportunities for Snow Fairy in the big WFA races. So it looks likely she'll get beat if her connections stick to their stated alternatives of the Arc or the Champion Stakes for her next outing.
However I am not yet certain that Snow Fairy is so disadvantaged by the uphill finish at Ascot as she only got beat a length and a quarter by Cirrus des Aigles in last year's Champion Stakes after meeting traffic problems. So that is the race I'd choose for Snow Fairy before she begins her annual late season campaign outside Europe.
Trainer Ed Dunlop says that he wants to run Snow Fairy at the Breeders' Cup meeting. He faces a tough choice there between the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Filly & Mare Turf.
The problem with the Breeders' Cup is that the early pace is invariably so slow in American turf races and the homestraight so short (only a furlong and a half) that you get flat out bunched sprint finishes where luck in running plays a major part in success - especially over shorter distances. For this reason I'd be inclined to steer Snow Fairy away from the Filly & Mare Turf. Many of Europe's top fillies have been beaten in that race due to experiencing traffic problems.
You might think that the Breeders' Cup Turf is not such a good option as Snow Fairy is clearly not quite as good over as mile and a half. But this year's race is going to be run at Santa Anita, where there is a prolonged downhill run on the lengthy chute where the race begins and the rest of the course is dead flat. Add to this the lightning fast ground that almost always prevails in California and the likely slow early pace and I think Snow Fairy will have a real chance of winning.
Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (43) won last year's Breeders' Cup Turf and will probably start favourite for the race again this year. He picked up really well to gain about three and a half lengths up the homestraight but never quite looked like getting there.
On my ratings St Nicholas Abbey is just as good over ten furlongs as twelve. However there are fewer horses capable of running as fast as him over the longer distance. In addition normally there are only one or two middle distance horses in training that are fast enough to earn a rating of 43 or more from me. This year there have been seven others this fast besides him, namely Cirrus Des Aigles, Danedream, Farhh, Frankel, Nathaniel, Snow Fairy and his recently retired stablemate So You Think.
If he were mine I'd be inclined to give St Nicholas Abbey a break and focus exclusively on taking the Breeders' Cup Turf for a second time. If he tackles the Arc and/or the Champion Stakes there has to be a real chance he'll suffer from end of season burn out just as previous Coolmore stars Duke Of Marmalade and Dylan Thomas did when running unplaced in their final two outings.
I would also be giving serious thought to keeping St Nicholas Abbey in training next year, even though he'll be six years of age. I say this because most of the horses aged four and up now capable of beating him will have retired by then. In addition this year's crop of three year olds are so slow none of them appear likely to trouble him next year. So St Nicholas Abbey could have all the big European middle distance races at his mercy in 2013.
Fourth placed LIGHT HEAVY (39) raced alongside Nathaniel disputing second early on. But when Nathaniel went in pursuit of the pacemaker half a mile out Light Heavy came under a full out drive and was unable to go with him. Snow Fairy and St Nicholas Abbey blew by him easily as well. He kept on losing ground all the way to the line but was only seven and a half lengths down at the finish.
This was Light Heavy's best run so far and rates as one of the best performances we've seen by a three year old colt all season. Though that isn't saying much as the three year old colts seem a very weak group this year.
It now looks clear that Light Heavy doesn't stay a mile and a half, despite previous indications that he would. He's a solid Group 2 horse over ten furlongs however and is still quite lightly raced so arguably has the potential to prove up to top class in time.
BORN TO SEA (38), another of the three year olds, was last by eight lengths plus until two furlongs out. From there he picked up to get within six lengths of the leader at the furlong pole but couldn't make any further progress. He was not ridden hard inside the last furlong when it became clear he couldn't get to the first four and lost about five lengths from there to the line. I'm rating him on the basis he could have finished two lengths closer if ridden right out (which would has been pointless as it not have improved his finishing position). He's very consistent but probably needs softer ground or perhaps a steep uphill finish or longer to show his best. I'm going to be rather interested in his next run, especially if he encounters the soft ground he seems to favour.
PRIX L'OPERA THE RIGHT TARGET FOR DUNTLE
The stewards faced a tough decision after DUNTLE (38) passed the post first in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. The winner had been badly boxed in while full of running early in the straight and had barged her way out, bumping Alanza who in turn bumped runner up Chachamaidee but barely enough to cost her any ground.
Once she was in the clear Duntle surged to the lead and sprinted the last furlong, always doing enough to narrowly hold the run of Chachamaidee.
There's no question that if Duntle had enjoyed a clear run or hadn't lost momentum by bumping Alanza she would have won by around a length. But she only prevailed by a short head, so I can see why the stewards chose to demote her.
I've suggested before that Duntle might well appreciate a step up to ten furlongs. This run, where she clocked 11.7 seconds for the final furlong off a decent gallop, points even more strongly to that conclusion. Indeed you can easily argue that she got herself boxed in because she lacked the pace to manouver out of trouble at a distance on the short side for her.
Duntle's dam and her best sibling both won over a mile and a half. In addition she showed remarkable stamina a few runs back when holding on for fourth despite going much too fast when duelling for the lead in the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown earlier in the season.
This being so I'm pleased to see Duntle has been entered for the Prix L'Opera at Longchamp’s Arc meeting. The French fillies are a fierce group this year but many of the best ones will be running in the Arc, so I reckon Duntle will have a serious shot of taking another Group 1 when she steps up in trip at Longchamp.
SKY LANTERN HAS A BIG CHANCE IN MARCEL BOUSSAC
SKY LANTERN (38) produced a tremendous burst of speed to run away with the Moyglare Std Stakes by nearly three lengths. She covered the last three furlongs almost three seconds faster than the winner of the later handicap over the same distance. And she flew the last furlong in 12 seconds flat, which is quite some feat seeing that the uphill finish adds about 0.8 of a second to the final furlong at the Curragh.
On this showing it does seem clear that Sky Lantern will appreciate going the extra furlong in the Marcel Boussac and the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The only real concern for her in the former race would be the possibility of yielding or softer ground. She's a good moving sort and confirmed at Goodwood that she must have a fast surface to show her best.
FAMOUS NAME DOES IT YET AGAIN
FAMOUS NAME (40) pushed the record for European pattern race wins up to nineteen when taking the Solonaway Stakes at the Curragh, rolling clear in the final furlong to score by nearly three lengths.
This remarkable old horse has won the last sixteen times he's run in Group 3 or lower class contests but has had a frustrating time trying to score that elusive Group 1 win he needs to secure his value as a stallion.
There are still a couple of chances for Famous Name to win at Group 1 level. The first comes in Italy's top mile race, the Premio Vittorio di Capua towards the end of this month. The mile of that race is a bit on the short side for Famous Name to show his very best form, as he demonstrated in the Solonaway Stakes. So he'll probably need rain to make it more of a stamina test.
By far the best chance for Famous Name to win a Group 1 surely lies in the Premio Roma, invariably a weak Group 1 that is run in November.
DANDINO (39) showed a decent turn of foot to clock just under 36 seconds for the final three furlongs when winning the Group 3 September Stakes over 12 furlongs on Kempton's Polytrack off a moderate early pace. He picked up well under pressure to forge clear in the closing stages.
If three losses by half a length or less had gone his way Dandino would have won nine of the ten times he's run 10-12 furlongs below Group 1 class on a fast surface. And he's shown in Germany, Britain and Japan that he can get to within six or seven lengths of the very best horses in Group 1 events.
Dandino is a solid Group 2 horse that might just sneak a weak Group 1 if he got his ground. He'd be an interesting contender for the valuable American St Leger if he stays in training next year. This time around I'd be entering him for the Turf Classic, the Canadian International, the Gran Premio del Jockey Club and the Breeders' Cup Turf and running him in whichever of them features fast ground and a relatively weak field. If he stays below Group 1 class and encounters a fast surface he'll be hard to beat.
NATHANIEL LACKS THE ACCELERATION NEEDED FOR THE ARC
NATHANIEL (43) is one of the best horses we've seen in recent years. But he does have one weakness and that is a lack of acceleration. This was apparent when he ran yet another brilliant race but lost the Irish Champion Stakes. Both the winner and the third placed horse gained more than three lengths on him up the two and a half furlong homestraight at Leopardstown.
Jockey William Buick adopted what looked a smart strategy by tracking the Coolmore pacemaker before kicking on into the lead with Nathaniel two furlongs out. But his mount lacked the turn of foot needed to hold off Snow Fairy who went on to win by over a length.
The next race Nathaniel contests will be the Arc where his lack of acceleration is likely to be an even greater disadvantage. This is due to the long downhill run to a furlong out at Longchamp which prompts a sprint finish or something close to it however strong the early gallop.
The one hope for Nathaniel in the Arc is the once in a decade soft ground that enabled Workforce to win the big French back in 2010. This would slow the closing stages down and give him a shot.
In fact Nathaniel's only loss in four tries on yielding or softer ground was a half length defeat by the mighty Frankel. On good or faster ground his only win in five tries came in a weak three runner maiden.
The winner SNOW FAIRY (44) is a magnificent mare, one of the best in the last couple of decades on my ratings. But she's by a miler out of a seven furlong performer. This probably explains why she seems best over trips short of a mile and a half on tracks with relatively short runs ins and without uphill finishes. Clearly she has stamina limitations.
Snow Fairy has lost all nine times she's tackled tracks with steep uphill finishes or homestraights of half a mile or more. But she's won nine of the twelve times she's run on tracks with homestraights less than half a mile which aren't steeply uphill. One of her losses was a third place finish over twelve furlongs in the Arc. Another came when she ran second at Goodwood in the Nassau Stakes around the bottom bend where the homestraight is only just shy of half a mile. The third was by just half a length in the Irish Champion Stakes last year.
Snow Fairy is so good she's been able to win two Group 1's over a mile and a half - admittedly against 3yo fillies. But her best run in five tries over 12 furlongs or more earned her a rating of 40 from me. That's only good Group 2 class.
The nature of European racing is such that it doesn't provide many suitable opportunities for Snow Fairy in the big WFA races. So it looks likely she'll get beat if her connections stick to their stated alternatives of the Arc or the Champion Stakes for her next outing.
However I am not yet certain that Snow Fairy is so disadvantaged by the uphill finish at Ascot as she only got beat a length and a quarter by Cirrus des Aigles in last year's Champion Stakes after meeting traffic problems. So that is the race I'd choose for Snow Fairy before she begins her annual late season campaign outside Europe.
Trainer Ed Dunlop says that he wants to run Snow Fairy at the Breeders' Cup meeting. He faces a tough choice there between the Breeders' Cup Turf and the Filly & Mare Turf.
The problem with the Breeders' Cup is that the early pace is invariably so slow in American turf races and the homestraight so short (only a furlong and a half) that you get flat out bunched sprint finishes where luck in running plays a major part in success - especially over shorter distances. For this reason I'd be inclined to steer Snow Fairy away from the Filly & Mare Turf. Many of Europe's top fillies have been beaten in that race due to experiencing traffic problems.
You might think that the Breeders' Cup Turf is not such a good option as Snow Fairy is clearly not quite as good over as mile and a half. But this year's race is going to be run at Santa Anita, where there is a prolonged downhill run on the lengthy chute where the race begins and the rest of the course is dead flat. Add to this the lightning fast ground that almost always prevails in California and the likely slow early pace and I think Snow Fairy will have a real chance of winning.
Third placed ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (43) won last year's Breeders' Cup Turf and will probably start favourite for the race again this year. He picked up really well to gain about three and a half lengths up the homestraight but never quite looked like getting there.
On my ratings St Nicholas Abbey is just as good over ten furlongs as twelve. However there are fewer horses capable of running as fast as him over the longer distance. In addition normally there are only one or two middle distance horses in training that are fast enough to earn a rating of 43 or more from me. This year there have been seven others this fast besides him, namely Cirrus Des Aigles, Danedream, Farhh, Frankel, Nathaniel, Snow Fairy and his recently retired stablemate So You Think.
If he were mine I'd be inclined to give St Nicholas Abbey a break and focus exclusively on taking the Breeders' Cup Turf for a second time. If he tackles the Arc and/or the Champion Stakes there has to be a real chance he'll suffer from end of season burn out just as previous Coolmore stars Duke Of Marmalade and Dylan Thomas did when running unplaced in their final two outings.
I would also be giving serious thought to keeping St Nicholas Abbey in training next year, even though he'll be six years of age. I say this because most of the horses aged four and up now capable of beating him will have retired by then. In addition this year's crop of three year olds are so slow none of them appear likely to trouble him next year. So St Nicholas Abbey could have all the big European middle distance races at his mercy in 2013.
Fourth placed LIGHT HEAVY (39) raced alongside Nathaniel disputing second early on. But when Nathaniel went in pursuit of the pacemaker half a mile out Light Heavy came under a full out drive and was unable to go with him. Snow Fairy and St Nicholas Abbey blew by him easily as well. He kept on losing ground all the way to the line but was only seven and a half lengths down at the finish.
This was Light Heavy's best run so far and rates as one of the best performances we've seen by a three year old colt all season. Though that isn't saying much as the three year old colts seem a very weak group this year.
It now looks clear that Light Heavy doesn't stay a mile and a half, despite previous indications that he would. He's a solid Group 2 horse over ten furlongs however and is still quite lightly raced so arguably has the potential to prove up to top class in time.
BORN TO SEA (38), another of the three year olds, was last by eight lengths plus until two furlongs out. From there he picked up to get within six lengths of the leader at the furlong pole but couldn't make any further progress. He was not ridden hard inside the last furlong when it became clear he couldn't get to the first four and lost about five lengths from there to the line. I'm rating him on the basis he could have finished two lengths closer if ridden right out (which would has been pointless as it not have improved his finishing position). He's very consistent but probably needs softer ground or perhaps a steep uphill finish or longer to show his best. I'm going to be rather interested in his next run, especially if he encounters the soft ground he seems to favour.
PRIX L'OPERA THE RIGHT TARGET FOR DUNTLE
The stewards faced a tough decision after DUNTLE (38) passed the post first in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. The winner had been badly boxed in while full of running early in the straight and had barged her way out, bumping Alanza who in turn bumped runner up Chachamaidee but barely enough to cost her any ground.
Once she was in the clear Duntle surged to the lead and sprinted the last furlong, always doing enough to narrowly hold the run of Chachamaidee.
There's no question that if Duntle had enjoyed a clear run or hadn't lost momentum by bumping Alanza she would have won by around a length. But she only prevailed by a short head, so I can see why the stewards chose to demote her.
I've suggested before that Duntle might well appreciate a step up to ten furlongs. This run, where she clocked 11.7 seconds for the final furlong off a decent gallop, points even more strongly to that conclusion. Indeed you can easily argue that she got herself boxed in because she lacked the pace to manouver out of trouble at a distance on the short side for her.
Duntle's dam and her best sibling both won over a mile and a half. In addition she showed remarkable stamina a few runs back when holding on for fourth despite going much too fast when duelling for the lead in the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown earlier in the season.
This being so I'm pleased to see Duntle has been entered for the Prix L'Opera at Longchamp’s Arc meeting. The French fillies are a fierce group this year but many of the best ones will be running in the Arc, so I reckon Duntle will have a serious shot of taking another Group 1 when she steps up in trip at Longchamp.
SKY LANTERN HAS A BIG CHANCE IN MARCEL BOUSSAC
SKY LANTERN (38) produced a tremendous burst of speed to run away with the Moyglare Std Stakes by nearly three lengths. She covered the last three furlongs almost three seconds faster than the winner of the later handicap over the same distance. And she flew the last furlong in 12 seconds flat, which is quite some feat seeing that the uphill finish adds about 0.8 of a second to the final furlong at the Curragh.
On this showing it does seem clear that Sky Lantern will appreciate going the extra furlong in the Marcel Boussac and the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The only real concern for her in the former race would be the possibility of yielding or softer ground. She's a good moving sort and confirmed at Goodwood that she must have a fast surface to show her best.
FAMOUS NAME DOES IT YET AGAIN
FAMOUS NAME (40) pushed the record for European pattern race wins up to nineteen when taking the Solonaway Stakes at the Curragh, rolling clear in the final furlong to score by nearly three lengths.
This remarkable old horse has won the last sixteen times he's run in Group 3 or lower class contests but has had a frustrating time trying to score that elusive Group 1 win he needs to secure his value as a stallion.
There are still a couple of chances for Famous Name to win at Group 1 level. The first comes in Italy's top mile race, the Premio Vittorio di Capua towards the end of this month. The mile of that race is a bit on the short side for Famous Name to show his very best form, as he demonstrated in the Solonaway Stakes. So he'll probably need rain to make it more of a stamina test.
By far the best chance for Famous Name to win a Group 1 surely lies in the Premio Roma, invariably a weak Group 1 that is run in November.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
CERTIFY AND PURR ALONG ARE SMART FILLIES
The way that CERTIFY (37) and PURR ALONG (37) powered eight lengths clear of their rivals as they fought out the May Hill Stakes suggests they're both very smart, as does the time they clock3ed, particularly over the last five furlongs.
Both fillies look like they'll do better over ten furlongs than a mile next year. But they're both so good right now that I can readily see them winning in Group 1 company over a mile this year. Their connections clearly agree as Certify is in the Fillies Mile and Purr Along has been entered in the Marcel Boussac.
HOW GOOD IS CAMELOT REALLY?
This has been a dreadful year for three year old males. So it wasn't too surprising to see the St Leger fall to a colt that scrambled home by half a length in a class 3 handicap as recently as July.
The colt in question was ENCKE (39) who clocked a time I rate between Group 2 and 3 class to score.
Encke came from midfield to take the lead about a furlong and a half out, kick clear and then hold the late charge of Camelot by three quarters of a length.
You could argue that CAMELOT (39) was unlucky because he was boxed in and then asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace. But in fact he had plenty of room when switched out for a run all the way from two furlongs out. And initially the winner doubled the advantage he had on Camelot once the pair set sail for home. It was only in the last furlong he started to close the gap.
In addition the pace wasn't that much faster in the closing stages. They took 49,13 seconds to cover the last half mile. That means they were running at a rate of 12.28 seconds a furlong in the closing stages compared to 12.54 seconds a furlong (when you take account of the 1.7 seconds extra it takes to run the first furlong due to a standing start).
I'm now inclined to believe that I over-rated Camelot's Derby win/ He's earned ratings of 39 or 40 from me in all his other starts. I hate revising old ratings, but it does look like the rating of 43 I gave him for the Derby could be too high. After all, his time on ground rated 8.5 on the going stick was about 2.6 seconds slower than Workforce achieved on ground rated 8.6.
I rather suspect that the reason Camelot was able to win the Guineas and the Derby and almost take the Triple Crown is that this year's crop of European three year old colts is the worst we've seen in decades - at least in terms of their success against older horses. They’ve still scored just the one win in Group 1 company against older horses. That's way lower than any previous season.
TORONADO WANTS LONGER
TORONADO (37) is a good-bodied, strong, rangy, mature, long striding colt that looks an 8-10 furlong sort. So his jockey probably did the right thing by making the running on him in the Champagne Stakes. He set a moderate pace early but steadily wound it up till he was really motoring over the last three furlongs. The runner up closed in on him late but he was always doing just enough to hold on.
Toronado is now unbeaten in three starts and looks an obvious candidate for the Racing Post Trophy. He's rather reminiscent of Tamburlaine who ran second in that race and the 2000 Guineas for the same trainer. The negatives I see in him are that clearly doesn't have a great turn of foot and is so muscular he may not be able to get beyond a mile despite what his pedigree suggests.
Runner up DONDONNEL (37) is a more athletic, racy colt that was disadvantaged by being asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace in the closing stages. He picked up well and was gradually wearing the winner down but fell short by half a length. Like the winner he falls into that gap between Group 1 and 2 at this stage. The Dewhurst looks a slightly more logical step than the Royal Lodge or Racing Post Trophy to me as he's clearly got a fair bit of speed.
I liked the way THA'IR (34) stayed on in the closing stages for third. He's not run that fast this season but is very consistent and looks likely to improve when he gets the chance to run ten furlongs next year.
DAWN APPROACH AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHAMPION TWO YEAR OLD
DAWN APPROACH (40) has to be rated as the champion two year old in Europe after his terrific win in the National Stakes at the Curragh. He was settled more than a dozen lengths off the tearaway front runner Flying The Flag for most of the races before closing the gap readily as that one tired, eventually forging clear to pass the line 0.7 of a second ahead of the runner up.
This run convinced me that Dawn Approach has real prospects of staying the Derby distance next season. Certainly I'd be confident of him getting ten furlongs. He's won all five of his starts to date and ranks as one of the fastest two year olds we've seen in recent years.
It's always possible that Dawn Approach will be one of those two year old champions that runs no faster at three than he did at two. But his strong, rangy physique makes me think that's unlikely. He looks a worthy favourite for both the Guineas and the Derby on this showing.
Runner up DESIGNS ON ROME (36) was pushed along in the rear behind the searching early gallop but made up a lot of ground in the closing stages. He was never going to get to the winner but was well clear of the third. I suspect he could have finished a length or so closer if hard ridden. He's built and bred for middle distances and the way he ran here reflects this.
Trainer Pat Flynn says Designs On Rome is the best horse he's ever trained. He should improve over the extra furlong if he takes up his entry in the Beresford Stakes. I'd be very interested in his chances of taking a Group 1 this year if he shipped over to Italy for the Gran Criterium or better still to France for the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
ORFEVRE WILL BE HARD TO BEAT IN ARC
I think we witnessed an extremely well executed strategy when the Japanese Triple Crown winner ORFEVRE (42) won the Prix Foy on Arc Trial day at Longchamp. The strategy seemed to be aimed at bringing the horse on in fitness without subjecting him to a hard race.
Orfevre's pacemaker Aventino (35) set a slow pace until five furlongs out, at which point Orfevre was lobbing along seven lengths behind in last place. From there Orfevre picked up smoothly and slipped through on the inside two furlongs out to take the gap Aventino's rider created for him. It didn't take long for Orfevre to go clear to the point where his jockey was able to let him coast for the last five or six strides, allowing the runner up Meandre to close the gap to a length.
Sectional times show that Orfevre covered the last 1000 metres (five furlongs) in just 56.79 seconds. I concede the long downhill run to the furlong marker at Longchamp is partly responsible for this. But the brilliant sprinter Moonlight Cloud only managed to clock 56.28 seconds for the same section when winning the Moulin on the same card after encountering a moderate pace for the first three furlongs. For a mile and a half horse to run just half a second slower is quite something.
A whole bunch of strong statistics point to Orfevre now being the one they all have to beat in the Arc.
Orfevre won the Japanese St Leger over 1m 7f on lightning fast ground against 3yo's. But it looks like he's better over a mile and a half as his two runs against older horses beyond that trip have resulted in the only defeats he's suffered in his last ten starts.
Earlier this year Orfevre pulled hard on his first run off a break and did the same here briefly in the early stages. But he soon settled and will doubtless do so sooner in the Arc as he won't be so fresh and keen and will be running behind a much stronger early pace.
In a year where the three year olds are a very poor group it looks likely that an older horse will win the Arc. And it's hard to argue against the idea that Orfevre, a five time Group 1 winner and Japan's reigning horse of the year, is the best of the older runners. He looks the one they all have to beat in the big race now.
Runner up MEANDRE (41) is a multiple Group 1 winner that is at his best in small fields on fast ground, especially off a slow early pace. His smart turn of foot makes him hard to beat in these circumstances. Despite this Orfevre was able to come from two lengths behind him and beat him a length despite being allowed to coast for the last five or six strides.
Meandre pulled hard early as he always does and picked up well to go past third placed Joshua Tree close home. But he was never a threat to the winner who is clearly in a different league.
I'm not sure there's much point running Meandre in the Arc as he's shown repeatedly that he tends to shy away from other runners and narrow openings. Indeed he shied away from Joshua Tree here when that one came out slightly as Aventino edged off the rail to allow Orfevre through. As a result he bumped into Fiorente but this didn't seem to cost him much momentum.
The big field will make things difficult for Meandre in the Arc. The race I'd like to see him shoot for is the Breeders' Cup Turf where he'd be almost sure to encounter the small field, fast ground and slow early pace that favour him.
Third placed JOSHUA TREE (41) is a real globetrotter. He rarely runs back home in Britain but has won almost 1.4 million pounds by tackling top races in nine different countries. He wasn't suited by the sprint finish here as he's more a staying sort, so it wasn't surprising to see first Orfevre and then Meandre get by him in the closing stages. But he kept on well to get beat just a length and a half.
All season Joshua Tree has had the Canadian International as his big target. He won the race in 2010 and finished second in it last year when not getting a clear run in a big field. He should have a good chance of taking the race again which would push his earnings over the two million pound mark.
Fourth placed FIORENTE (38) is a big-bodied horse that always seems to need his first run of the year and appears to require a long homestraight to get rolling properly in the closing stages. This being so the fact that rail movements cut the length of the homestraight to 530 metres didn't suit him. Nor did the sprint finish.
Fiorente raced in second last position and took a pretty hefty bump from Meandre as that one shied away from Joshua Tree just after entering the straight. This cost him valuable momentum at a time when he was already struggling to stop the first three sprinting away from him.
To date Fiorente has run just twice on galloping tracks with long homestraights after his seasonal debut and won both times. In his latest win he beat Joshua Tree nearly three lengths into second.
Last year Fiorente looked a serious St Leger prospect before incurring an injury. His physique and the way he runs suggest that he would still benefit from a step up in distance. However any time he runs on a galloping track with a homestraight of at least three furlongs I'll be interested in his chances. His best form suggests he's capable of taking a Group 1 in favourable circumstances.
SAONOIS PROBABLY BEST OVER TEN FURLONGS
A measure of just how far the top three year olds are behind their elders this year can be gained from the sectional times for the Prix Niel. These show that Prix du Jockey Club winner SAONOIS (39) reached the five furlong from home point 0.41 of a second before Orfevre did in the Prix Foy but ended up running a final time 1.05 seconds slower. In other words Orfevre effectively gave him a head start of two and a half lengths and still beat him by six and a half lengths.
Saonois is a nippy, athletic, medium sized colt that has the build of a ten furlong specialist. He produced a good turn of foot to zip through the field and sprint away from his rivals here off a slow early pace. But I suspect he'd have trouble lasting a mile and a half in a more strongly run contest. His connections seem to share this view as they took him out of the Grand Prix de Paris and Arc over twelve furlongs and now have him in the Champion Stakes over ten furlongs.
To be fair to Saonois he may well be capable of running faster than he's shown so far. He's won pretty much every time he's met the fast surface he needs. In fact, if a short head photo against the useful Sir Jade had gone his way Saonois would now be unbeaten in seven starts on fast turf or the All Weather.
Runner up BAYRIR (38) has always looked likely to be suited by a step up to a mile and a half. However he was not well served by being dropped out to last in a race where his pacemaker set a slow gallop. He was still last with a furlong to go and then swept by everything down the die outside bar the faster finishing winner.
Bayrir's two upcoming entries are back over shorter trips in the Prix Dollar and Champion Stakes. I think he'll do better when going back up to a mile and a half.
Third placed LAST TRAIN (38) was floundering and looked hopelessly one paced for a long time after the sprint finish began. But he finally got rolling in the last furlong. He's clearly a proper mile and a half horse that would have preferred a stronger pace or softer ground.
SHARETA LACKS THE PACE TO WIN THE ARC
SHARETA (39) was very well suited by the searching early gallop in the Prix Vermeille. She was also greatly helped by tracking the leader in a clear second place and being able to kick for home while several of her rivals ran into traffic problems as they tried to find a run.
This was a solid run. But I think her connections are allowing themselves to be overcome by the enthusiasm prompted by the win when talking about going for the Arc. Her trainer said earlier that he'd probably opt for just one of the two races , with the Vermeille the most likely choice.
No filly or mare older than three has ever won the Arc without beating previously males in a Group race. Shareta has lost all three times she's faced males. Yes she ran second in last year's Arc, but she got beat five lengths after a dream run in a race run to suit her.
As her trainer has noted, Shareta is not well suited by the short homestraights and sprint finishes that typify French racing. In addition she's best on the fast ground she got here. The chances of her getting a strong pace and suitable ground plus a trouble free passage for the second year in a row in the Arc aren't great. And I just don't rate her fast enough to win the race anyway.
Third placed SOLEMIA (38) had beaten Shareta earlier this season but was one of those that encountered traffic problems in the closing stages. Her jockey manouvered her this way and that as the winner made the best of her way home and finally opted to switch to the rail. She picked up well once in the clear but was just caught by the runner up Pirika (38) who'd enjoyed a clear run and been able to build up momentum by coming with a sweeping run down the wide outside.
This isn't the first time Solemia has encountered trouble in running in a big field. So I'm not surprised to see that all her four wins have come in fields of ten or less. In fact she would have won five of the last six times she's run in fields of ten or less if two photos had gone her way. If there are ten runners or less in the Prix l'Opera she should have a good chance.
Last year's Vermeille winner GALIKOVA (37) was the chief sufferer from the crowding. She ended up being boxed in for a long way when moving well before finishing strongly once in the clear. I've suggested before that she may prefer smaller fields since her five wins to date have all been in races with eight or fewer runners. However it could be that she'll do better in future if switched to the outside for a run entering the straight.
Thanks to her late start Galikova is still a fresh horse as we approach the big international races run during the last three months of the year. I suspect she's still as good as she was last season, and that means there's a real chance she could win something big before the end of the year.
MOONLIGHT CLOUD EARNS A SHOT AT THE BC MILE
MOONLIGHT CLOUD (39) won the Moulin by a head with her trademark finishing burst. But the run doesn't prove that she truly stays a mile. The field took a pedestrian 40.28 seconds to run the first three furlongs before sprinting the last five furlongs in 56.62 seconds.
My sectional timing formula suggests this run was some way below the best Moonlight Cloud has shown in sprint races. So I am somewhat dubious about her adding to trainer Freddy Head's remarkable record in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Then again, American turf races also tend to feature a slow early pace followed by a sprint finish so I could be wrong.
Runner up FARHH (39) has shown better form over ten furlongs than a mile and has always looked likely to stay a mile and a half. So he was probably not well served by being asked to set a slow pace and then wind it up from the front against a rival with such a powerful finishing kick.
Farhh's connections have expressed a desire to avoid Frankel. I guess this explains why they have him entered up in the Prix Dollar and Prix Daniel Wildenstein. Given his preference for slower ground and his lack of push-button acceleration I'm not sure either of those races are ideal due to the fact they're both run in France at a meeting where fast ground is the norm. If he were mine I'd have tried to ensure him a Group 1 win by shooting for the Premio Roma, the Gran Premio del Jockey Club or the Canadian International. But I imagine he'll stay in training so there's always next year for longer races on softer ground.
The way that CERTIFY (37) and PURR ALONG (37) powered eight lengths clear of their rivals as they fought out the May Hill Stakes suggests they're both very smart, as does the time they clock3ed, particularly over the last five furlongs.
Both fillies look like they'll do better over ten furlongs than a mile next year. But they're both so good right now that I can readily see them winning in Group 1 company over a mile this year. Their connections clearly agree as Certify is in the Fillies Mile and Purr Along has been entered in the Marcel Boussac.
HOW GOOD IS CAMELOT REALLY?
This has been a dreadful year for three year old males. So it wasn't too surprising to see the St Leger fall to a colt that scrambled home by half a length in a class 3 handicap as recently as July.
The colt in question was ENCKE (39) who clocked a time I rate between Group 2 and 3 class to score.
Encke came from midfield to take the lead about a furlong and a half out, kick clear and then hold the late charge of Camelot by three quarters of a length.
You could argue that CAMELOT (39) was unlucky because he was boxed in and then asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace. But in fact he had plenty of room when switched out for a run all the way from two furlongs out. And initially the winner doubled the advantage he had on Camelot once the pair set sail for home. It was only in the last furlong he started to close the gap.
In addition the pace wasn't that much faster in the closing stages. They took 49,13 seconds to cover the last half mile. That means they were running at a rate of 12.28 seconds a furlong in the closing stages compared to 12.54 seconds a furlong (when you take account of the 1.7 seconds extra it takes to run the first furlong due to a standing start).
I'm now inclined to believe that I over-rated Camelot's Derby win/ He's earned ratings of 39 or 40 from me in all his other starts. I hate revising old ratings, but it does look like the rating of 43 I gave him for the Derby could be too high. After all, his time on ground rated 8.5 on the going stick was about 2.6 seconds slower than Workforce achieved on ground rated 8.6.
I rather suspect that the reason Camelot was able to win the Guineas and the Derby and almost take the Triple Crown is that this year's crop of European three year old colts is the worst we've seen in decades - at least in terms of their success against older horses. They’ve still scored just the one win in Group 1 company against older horses. That's way lower than any previous season.
TORONADO WANTS LONGER
TORONADO (37) is a good-bodied, strong, rangy, mature, long striding colt that looks an 8-10 furlong sort. So his jockey probably did the right thing by making the running on him in the Champagne Stakes. He set a moderate pace early but steadily wound it up till he was really motoring over the last three furlongs. The runner up closed in on him late but he was always doing just enough to hold on.
Toronado is now unbeaten in three starts and looks an obvious candidate for the Racing Post Trophy. He's rather reminiscent of Tamburlaine who ran second in that race and the 2000 Guineas for the same trainer. The negatives I see in him are that clearly doesn't have a great turn of foot and is so muscular he may not be able to get beyond a mile despite what his pedigree suggests.
Runner up DONDONNEL (37) is a more athletic, racy colt that was disadvantaged by being asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace in the closing stages. He picked up well and was gradually wearing the winner down but fell short by half a length. Like the winner he falls into that gap between Group 1 and 2 at this stage. The Dewhurst looks a slightly more logical step than the Royal Lodge or Racing Post Trophy to me as he's clearly got a fair bit of speed.
I liked the way THA'IR (34) stayed on in the closing stages for third. He's not run that fast this season but is very consistent and looks likely to improve when he gets the chance to run ten furlongs next year.
DAWN APPROACH AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHAMPION TWO YEAR OLD
DAWN APPROACH (40) has to be rated as the champion two year old in Europe after his terrific win in the National Stakes at the Curragh. He was settled more than a dozen lengths off the tearaway front runner Flying The Flag for most of the races before closing the gap readily as that one tired, eventually forging clear to pass the line 0.7 of a second ahead of the runner up.
This run convinced me that Dawn Approach has real prospects of staying the Derby distance next season. Certainly I'd be confident of him getting ten furlongs. He's won all five of his starts to date and ranks as one of the fastest two year olds we've seen in recent years.
It's always possible that Dawn Approach will be one of those two year old champions that runs no faster at three than he did at two. But his strong, rangy physique makes me think that's unlikely. He looks a worthy favourite for both the Guineas and the Derby on this showing.
Runner up DESIGNS ON ROME (36) was pushed along in the rear behind the searching early gallop but made up a lot of ground in the closing stages. He was never going to get to the winner but was well clear of the third. I suspect he could have finished a length or so closer if hard ridden. He's built and bred for middle distances and the way he ran here reflects this.
Trainer Pat Flynn says Designs On Rome is the best horse he's ever trained. He should improve over the extra furlong if he takes up his entry in the Beresford Stakes. I'd be very interested in his chances of taking a Group 1 this year if he shipped over to Italy for the Gran Criterium or better still to France for the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
ORFEVRE WILL BE HARD TO BEAT IN ARC
I think we witnessed an extremely well executed strategy when the Japanese Triple Crown winner ORFEVRE (42) won the Prix Foy on Arc Trial day at Longchamp. The strategy seemed to be aimed at bringing the horse on in fitness without subjecting him to a hard race.
Orfevre's pacemaker Aventino (35) set a slow pace until five furlongs out, at which point Orfevre was lobbing along seven lengths behind in last place. From there Orfevre picked up smoothly and slipped through on the inside two furlongs out to take the gap Aventino's rider created for him. It didn't take long for Orfevre to go clear to the point where his jockey was able to let him coast for the last five or six strides, allowing the runner up Meandre to close the gap to a length.
Sectional times show that Orfevre covered the last 1000 metres (five furlongs) in just 56.79 seconds. I concede the long downhill run to the furlong marker at Longchamp is partly responsible for this. But the brilliant sprinter Moonlight Cloud only managed to clock 56.28 seconds for the same section when winning the Moulin on the same card after encountering a moderate pace for the first three furlongs. For a mile and a half horse to run just half a second slower is quite something.
A whole bunch of strong statistics point to Orfevre now being the one they all have to beat in the Arc.
Orfevre won the Japanese St Leger over 1m 7f on lightning fast ground against 3yo's. But it looks like he's better over a mile and a half as his two runs against older horses beyond that trip have resulted in the only defeats he's suffered in his last ten starts.
Earlier this year Orfevre pulled hard on his first run off a break and did the same here briefly in the early stages. But he soon settled and will doubtless do so sooner in the Arc as he won't be so fresh and keen and will be running behind a much stronger early pace.
In a year where the three year olds are a very poor group it looks likely that an older horse will win the Arc. And it's hard to argue against the idea that Orfevre, a five time Group 1 winner and Japan's reigning horse of the year, is the best of the older runners. He looks the one they all have to beat in the big race now.
Runner up MEANDRE (41) is a multiple Group 1 winner that is at his best in small fields on fast ground, especially off a slow early pace. His smart turn of foot makes him hard to beat in these circumstances. Despite this Orfevre was able to come from two lengths behind him and beat him a length despite being allowed to coast for the last five or six strides.
Meandre pulled hard early as he always does and picked up well to go past third placed Joshua Tree close home. But he was never a threat to the winner who is clearly in a different league.
I'm not sure there's much point running Meandre in the Arc as he's shown repeatedly that he tends to shy away from other runners and narrow openings. Indeed he shied away from Joshua Tree here when that one came out slightly as Aventino edged off the rail to allow Orfevre through. As a result he bumped into Fiorente but this didn't seem to cost him much momentum.
The big field will make things difficult for Meandre in the Arc. The race I'd like to see him shoot for is the Breeders' Cup Turf where he'd be almost sure to encounter the small field, fast ground and slow early pace that favour him.
Third placed JOSHUA TREE (41) is a real globetrotter. He rarely runs back home in Britain but has won almost 1.4 million pounds by tackling top races in nine different countries. He wasn't suited by the sprint finish here as he's more a staying sort, so it wasn't surprising to see first Orfevre and then Meandre get by him in the closing stages. But he kept on well to get beat just a length and a half.
All season Joshua Tree has had the Canadian International as his big target. He won the race in 2010 and finished second in it last year when not getting a clear run in a big field. He should have a good chance of taking the race again which would push his earnings over the two million pound mark.
Fourth placed FIORENTE (38) is a big-bodied horse that always seems to need his first run of the year and appears to require a long homestraight to get rolling properly in the closing stages. This being so the fact that rail movements cut the length of the homestraight to 530 metres didn't suit him. Nor did the sprint finish.
Fiorente raced in second last position and took a pretty hefty bump from Meandre as that one shied away from Joshua Tree just after entering the straight. This cost him valuable momentum at a time when he was already struggling to stop the first three sprinting away from him.
To date Fiorente has run just twice on galloping tracks with long homestraights after his seasonal debut and won both times. In his latest win he beat Joshua Tree nearly three lengths into second.
Last year Fiorente looked a serious St Leger prospect before incurring an injury. His physique and the way he runs suggest that he would still benefit from a step up in distance. However any time he runs on a galloping track with a homestraight of at least three furlongs I'll be interested in his chances. His best form suggests he's capable of taking a Group 1 in favourable circumstances.
SAONOIS PROBABLY BEST OVER TEN FURLONGS
A measure of just how far the top three year olds are behind their elders this year can be gained from the sectional times for the Prix Niel. These show that Prix du Jockey Club winner SAONOIS (39) reached the five furlong from home point 0.41 of a second before Orfevre did in the Prix Foy but ended up running a final time 1.05 seconds slower. In other words Orfevre effectively gave him a head start of two and a half lengths and still beat him by six and a half lengths.
Saonois is a nippy, athletic, medium sized colt that has the build of a ten furlong specialist. He produced a good turn of foot to zip through the field and sprint away from his rivals here off a slow early pace. But I suspect he'd have trouble lasting a mile and a half in a more strongly run contest. His connections seem to share this view as they took him out of the Grand Prix de Paris and Arc over twelve furlongs and now have him in the Champion Stakes over ten furlongs.
To be fair to Saonois he may well be capable of running faster than he's shown so far. He's won pretty much every time he's met the fast surface he needs. In fact, if a short head photo against the useful Sir Jade had gone his way Saonois would now be unbeaten in seven starts on fast turf or the All Weather.
Runner up BAYRIR (38) has always looked likely to be suited by a step up to a mile and a half. However he was not well served by being dropped out to last in a race where his pacemaker set a slow gallop. He was still last with a furlong to go and then swept by everything down the die outside bar the faster finishing winner.
Bayrir's two upcoming entries are back over shorter trips in the Prix Dollar and Champion Stakes. I think he'll do better when going back up to a mile and a half.
Third placed LAST TRAIN (38) was floundering and looked hopelessly one paced for a long time after the sprint finish began. But he finally got rolling in the last furlong. He's clearly a proper mile and a half horse that would have preferred a stronger pace or softer ground.
SHARETA LACKS THE PACE TO WIN THE ARC
SHARETA (39) was very well suited by the searching early gallop in the Prix Vermeille. She was also greatly helped by tracking the leader in a clear second place and being able to kick for home while several of her rivals ran into traffic problems as they tried to find a run.
This was a solid run. But I think her connections are allowing themselves to be overcome by the enthusiasm prompted by the win when talking about going for the Arc. Her trainer said earlier that he'd probably opt for just one of the two races , with the Vermeille the most likely choice.
No filly or mare older than three has ever won the Arc without beating previously males in a Group race. Shareta has lost all three times she's faced males. Yes she ran second in last year's Arc, but she got beat five lengths after a dream run in a race run to suit her.
As her trainer has noted, Shareta is not well suited by the short homestraights and sprint finishes that typify French racing. In addition she's best on the fast ground she got here. The chances of her getting a strong pace and suitable ground plus a trouble free passage for the second year in a row in the Arc aren't great. And I just don't rate her fast enough to win the race anyway.
Third placed SOLEMIA (38) had beaten Shareta earlier this season but was one of those that encountered traffic problems in the closing stages. Her jockey manouvered her this way and that as the winner made the best of her way home and finally opted to switch to the rail. She picked up well once in the clear but was just caught by the runner up Pirika (38) who'd enjoyed a clear run and been able to build up momentum by coming with a sweeping run down the wide outside.
This isn't the first time Solemia has encountered trouble in running in a big field. So I'm not surprised to see that all her four wins have come in fields of ten or less. In fact she would have won five of the last six times she's run in fields of ten or less if two photos had gone her way. If there are ten runners or less in the Prix l'Opera she should have a good chance.
Last year's Vermeille winner GALIKOVA (37) was the chief sufferer from the crowding. She ended up being boxed in for a long way when moving well before finishing strongly once in the clear. I've suggested before that she may prefer smaller fields since her five wins to date have all been in races with eight or fewer runners. However it could be that she'll do better in future if switched to the outside for a run entering the straight.
Thanks to her late start Galikova is still a fresh horse as we approach the big international races run during the last three months of the year. I suspect she's still as good as she was last season, and that means there's a real chance she could win something big before the end of the year.
MOONLIGHT CLOUD EARNS A SHOT AT THE BC MILE
MOONLIGHT CLOUD (39) won the Moulin by a head with her trademark finishing burst. But the run doesn't prove that she truly stays a mile. The field took a pedestrian 40.28 seconds to run the first three furlongs before sprinting the last five furlongs in 56.62 seconds.
My sectional timing formula suggests this run was some way below the best Moonlight Cloud has shown in sprint races. So I am somewhat dubious about her adding to trainer Freddy Head's remarkable record in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Then again, American turf races also tend to feature a slow early pace followed by a sprint finish so I could be wrong.
Runner up FARHH (39) has shown better form over ten furlongs than a mile and has always looked likely to stay a mile and a half. So he was probably not well served by being asked to set a slow pace and then wind it up from the front against a rival with such a powerful finishing kick.
Farhh's connections have expressed a desire to avoid Frankel. I guess this explains why they have him entered up in the Prix Dollar and Prix Daniel Wildenstein. Given his preference for slower ground and his lack of push-button acceleration I'm not sure either of those races are ideal due to the fact they're both run in France at a meeting where fast ground is the norm. If he were mine I'd have tried to ensure him a Group 1 win by shooting for the Premio Roma, the Gran Premio del Jockey Club or the Canadian International. But I imagine he'll stay in training so there's always next year for longer races on softer ground.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Does beating over a dozen men in the best 12f G1 not count?
Colin Phillips
At the Start
MOOHAJIM HAS A REAL SHOT IN DEWHURST
I really liked the way MOOHAJIM (37) started motoring and pulled clear towards the end of the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. He looked to be crying out for a step up to seven furlongs yet still put up one of the best performances we've seen from a two year old all season to score.
The logical move now is surely to let Moohajim take his chance in the Dewhurst over seven furlongs rather than keeping him to six furlongs in the Middle Park. I concede that the shorter race is usually the weaker of the two but I think the longer distance of the Dewhurst overwhelms that consideration.
It's hard to say for sure whether Moohajim will turn out to be good enough for the Guineas next year. The indications are certainly positive at this stage though.
WENTWORTH IS A CLASSIC PROPSECT
One big problem with the pattern race system is that in most countries the number of pattern races increases each year at a faster rate than the racehorse population. The problem is at its worst in America but is also pretty bad in Britain. In both cases it often leads to small, uncompetitive fields in pattern races. Indeed there are now so many pattern races the best horses can frequently avoid each other yet still earn black type. This was clearly not the original intention.
What's strange is that despite so many undeserving races being awarded Listed or Group status a few obvious candidates for promotion get passed over every year.
The most obvious candidate is the Hanson & Clark Conditions race at Newbury. This event has a glittering history with many winners going on to success at the top level. Its prestige ensures that it attracts Group 3 or at least Listed quality fields year after year. Quite why it remains an unlisted contest is beyond me.
This year's Hanson & Clark Stakes was well up to the normal standard if the clock is any guide. The winner WENTWORTH (36) ran fast enough to win a Group 3 for two year olds.
Wentworth is a good bodied, mature, classy looking colt that is built for middle distances. He moved along smoothly disputing fourth place most of the way but found his way blocked when trying to start his run two furlongs out. Switched to the stands side, he picked up smartly when rousted along, showing a really good turn of foot to pick up the leaders and win going away. He was still moving strongly crossing the line and is almost certainly capable of running faster.
Judged by comments from the connections it seems likely that Wentworth will now be put away for the year and brought back next season with the Prix du Jockey Club as his objective. I can see him doing well in that race especially if he takes in one or two of the French trials for the race beforehand.
Runner up CHIEF HAVOC (35) was going just as well as the winner for most of the race. But he is a long striding out and out mile and a half sort. The winner simply swamped him for speed in the final furlong. Next year when he gets the chance to go a mile and a half he should do better. I suspect he'll improve for softer ground too.
HAJRAS LOOKS GROUP CLASS
HAJRAS (37) was impressive when winning a valuable ten furlong handicap at Newbury. He burst clear a furlong and a half out as if he'd just jumped into the race at that point. And if the useful runner up hadn't come out of the pack to chase him he'd have been a wide margin winner.
To me Hajras looks like an out and out ten furlong sort. His pace suggests he's probably best on a fast surface too despite that win over a mile on soft.
Right now Hajras holds no entries. However he's in such good form he'll surely have another run or two before the season is over. If he encounters fast ground over ten furlongs I'd be wary of opposing him. Next year he'd be an interesting candidate for the Dubai Carnival.
TRADING LEATHER IS GROUP 1 CLASS
TRADING LEATHER (38) ran a seriously fast time to run away with a Gowran Park maiden over a mile last Sunday. He set a decent pace then really poured it on over the last three furlongs, completing that part of the race two full seconds faster than they went in the Group 3 on the same card while powering seven lengths clear.
This run marks Trading Leather out as one of the best two year olds we've seen all season. He's built and bred for longer distances. And the way he was finishing tells me he'll have no trouble at all staying the Derby distance next year. I'd be wary of opposing him if he turns out again for the Royal Lodge or the Beresford Stakes this weekend. In fact I rate him so highly I have to give him a real shot of winning the Racing Post Trophy even if Dawn Approach lines up. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Derby looks awfully generous.
MIRADENE A USEFUL NOVICE CHASER
MIRADENE (37) was on his way to a wide margin win at Listowel when a bad blunder at the lost cost him valuable momentum. He had to be rousted along on the run in to hold the rallying runner up Benefficient.
The time Miradene clocked was almost identical to that achieved by Twinlight in the other division of the race. But from four out his stamina looked to be kicking in as he ran from there 1.5 seconds faster than Twinlight until the blunder slowed him down. I'm pretty sure he'd have kept on rolling but for that and maintained the five length lead he had at the last, so I'm rating him on that basis.
Miradene is a deep chested sort that looks built for two and a half miles plus even though he's been kept to shorter distances till now. It could be he's best on relatively flat tracks as he's won three of the last four times he's run on such courses.
RELIABLE MAN PRIMED FOR A BIG WIN
History will record that Maxios won this year's La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte. But the horse to take out of the race just has to be the runner up RELIABLE MAN (40).
Running over a trip that his trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre now agrees is two furlongs short of his best Reliable Man was given a remarkably easy time of things in the closing stages. His jockey gave him just a single crack of the whip a furlong out and then allowed him to ease home comfortably just a length and a half behind in second place even though the winner was hard driven and had to be hit seven times to stay ahead.
Royer Dupre explained after the race that Reliable Man needed the race and would likely run next in either the Arc or the Canadian International over a mile and a half. He could also run over in the Champion Stakes. But that would be against the mighty Frankel and over just ten furlongs, so he'll surely opt for one of the longer races.
Seeing how well he ran over a mile and a half in the King George I'd have to give Reliable Man a real chance in the Arc. But he'd be a near cert in the Canadian International so I'm betting his connections opt for that instead.
The winner MAXIOS (41) is clearly a smart horse but his trainer says he is best fresh. It also looks like he prefers small fields. So far he's won five of the six times he's run ten furlongs or less in fields of seven or less on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. He's now likely to go for the Prix Dollar but his record suggests that race may come too soon. In addition more than seven runners are likely.
I really liked the way MOOHAJIM (37) started motoring and pulled clear towards the end of the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. He looked to be crying out for a step up to seven furlongs yet still put up one of the best performances we've seen from a two year old all season to score.
The logical move now is surely to let Moohajim take his chance in the Dewhurst over seven furlongs rather than keeping him to six furlongs in the Middle Park. I concede that the shorter race is usually the weaker of the two but I think the longer distance of the Dewhurst overwhelms that consideration.
It's hard to say for sure whether Moohajim will turn out to be good enough for the Guineas next year. The indications are certainly positive at this stage though.
WENTWORTH IS A CLASSIC PROPSECT
One big problem with the pattern race system is that in most countries the number of pattern races increases each year at a faster rate than the racehorse population. The problem is at its worst in America but is also pretty bad in Britain. In both cases it often leads to small, uncompetitive fields in pattern races. Indeed there are now so many pattern races the best horses can frequently avoid each other yet still earn black type. This was clearly not the original intention.
What's strange is that despite so many undeserving races being awarded Listed or Group status a few obvious candidates for promotion get passed over every year.
The most obvious candidate is the Hanson & Clark Conditions race at Newbury. This event has a glittering history with many winners going on to success at the top level. Its prestige ensures that it attracts Group 3 or at least Listed quality fields year after year. Quite why it remains an unlisted contest is beyond me.
This year's Hanson & Clark Stakes was well up to the normal standard if the clock is any guide. The winner WENTWORTH (36) ran fast enough to win a Group 3 for two year olds.
Wentworth is a good bodied, mature, classy looking colt that is built for middle distances. He moved along smoothly disputing fourth place most of the way but found his way blocked when trying to start his run two furlongs out. Switched to the stands side, he picked up smartly when rousted along, showing a really good turn of foot to pick up the leaders and win going away. He was still moving strongly crossing the line and is almost certainly capable of running faster.
Judged by comments from the connections it seems likely that Wentworth will now be put away for the year and brought back next season with the Prix du Jockey Club as his objective. I can see him doing well in that race especially if he takes in one or two of the French trials for the race beforehand.
Runner up CHIEF HAVOC (35) was going just as well as the winner for most of the race. But he is a long striding out and out mile and a half sort. The winner simply swamped him for speed in the final furlong. Next year when he gets the chance to go a mile and a half he should do better. I suspect he'll improve for softer ground too.
HAJRAS LOOKS GROUP CLASS
HAJRAS (37) was impressive when winning a valuable ten furlong handicap at Newbury. He burst clear a furlong and a half out as if he'd just jumped into the race at that point. And if the useful runner up hadn't come out of the pack to chase him he'd have been a wide margin winner.
To me Hajras looks like an out and out ten furlong sort. His pace suggests he's probably best on a fast surface too despite that win over a mile on soft.
Right now Hajras holds no entries. However he's in such good form he'll surely have another run or two before the season is over. If he encounters fast ground over ten furlongs I'd be wary of opposing him. Next year he'd be an interesting candidate for the Dubai Carnival.
TRADING LEATHER IS GROUP 1 CLASS
TRADING LEATHER (38) ran a seriously fast time to run away with a Gowran Park maiden over a mile last Sunday. He set a decent pace then really poured it on over the last three furlongs, completing that part of the race two full seconds faster than they went in the Group 3 on the same card while powering seven lengths clear.
This run marks Trading Leather out as one of the best two year olds we've seen all season. He's built and bred for longer distances. And the way he was finishing tells me he'll have no trouble at all staying the Derby distance next year. I'd be wary of opposing him if he turns out again for the Royal Lodge or the Beresford Stakes this weekend. In fact I rate him so highly I have to give him a real shot of winning the Racing Post Trophy even if Dawn Approach lines up. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Derby looks awfully generous.
MIRADENE A USEFUL NOVICE CHASER
MIRADENE (37) was on his way to a wide margin win at Listowel when a bad blunder at the lost cost him valuable momentum. He had to be rousted along on the run in to hold the rallying runner up Benefficient.
The time Miradene clocked was almost identical to that achieved by Twinlight in the other division of the race. But from four out his stamina looked to be kicking in as he ran from there 1.5 seconds faster than Twinlight until the blunder slowed him down. I'm pretty sure he'd have kept on rolling but for that and maintained the five length lead he had at the last, so I'm rating him on that basis.
Miradene is a deep chested sort that looks built for two and a half miles plus even though he's been kept to shorter distances till now. It could be he's best on relatively flat tracks as he's won three of the last four times he's run on such courses.
RELIABLE MAN PRIMED FOR A BIG WIN
History will record that Maxios won this year's La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte. But the horse to take out of the race just has to be the runner up RELIABLE MAN (40).
Running over a trip that his trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre now agrees is two furlongs short of his best Reliable Man was given a remarkably easy time of things in the closing stages. His jockey gave him just a single crack of the whip a furlong out and then allowed him to ease home comfortably just a length and a half behind in second place even though the winner was hard driven and had to be hit seven times to stay ahead.
Royer Dupre explained after the race that Reliable Man needed the race and would likely run next in either the Arc or the Canadian International over a mile and a half. He could also run over in the Champion Stakes. But that would be against the mighty Frankel and over just ten furlongs, so he'll surely opt for one of the longer races.
Seeing how well he ran over a mile and a half in the King George I'd have to give Reliable Man a real chance in the Arc. But he'd be a near cert in the Canadian International so I'm betting his connections opt for that instead.
The winner MAXIOS (41) is clearly a smart horse but his trainer says he is best fresh. It also looks like he prefers small fields. So far he's won five of the six times he's run ten furlongs or less in fields of seven or less on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. He's now likely to go for the Prix Dollar but his record suggests that race may come too soon. In addition more than seven runners are likely.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
GALLIPOT HAS A BIG SHOT IN ROYALLIEU
GALLIPOT (39) clocked a time that would win many Group 1 races for fillies when wining the Listed Princess Royal Stakes at Newmarket. She disputed third and readily came through to lead and then clear away over a furlong out when the front running runner up finally tired.
It's tempting to say that Gallipot has suddenly improved and this is why she ran so moderately on her first five starts. But that's a lazy excuse to my way of thinking that doesn't tell us much. As I see it the most likely explanation for her recent turnaround is that she prefers right handed tracks and dislikes soft ground.
When she ran at Lingfield in July Gallipot had trouble handling the home turn, which of course is left handed. And her only recent loss was her admittedly good run when fourth in the Park Hill. That race is run around left-handed Doncaster which has the longest home turn in the world.
On seeing this performance the race I immediately thought of for Gallipot was the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp's Arc meeting. Longchamp is left handed and the ground is normally good or faster for the race. On looking up her entries I was interested to see that her connections had reached the same conclusion before me by entering her for the French race. There are some very good fillies entered in that race but I rate Gallipot the best of them barring Sapphire who would have to give her six and a half kilos (14 pounds) if lining up there rather than going for the Arc.
Runner up ALBAMARA (37) had the run of the race. She was able to amble along in the lead while clocking around 12.8 seconds or slower for each of the first four furlongs. She then wound up the pace to hit 12 seconds for less for each of the next seven furlongs before finally tiring and getting caught approaching the furlong pole.
Albamara is a rangy, long striding sort that doesn't look to have much acceleration, so this style of running surely suited her. It's the way they tend to run races in Germany and France, so I can see her winning a Listed or Group 3 race in one of those countries.
Third placed LILY IN PINK (37) was disadvantaged by being held up off the pace. This made it hard for her to gain any ground as the runner up kept cranking out one 12 second or faster furlong after another. It was only approaching the final furlong as the leader tired that she started to gain ground. She picked up a lot of ground on everything bar the winner in the final furlong and was still moving well passing the line.
It looks like Lily In Pink always needs her seasonal debut. Id' speculate that she doesn't quite stay a mile and three quarter as well. If two narrow losses had gone her way she would have won all six times she'd run less than a mile and three quarters excepting her seasonal debuts before this.
The lightly raced KHIONE (36) suffered from the same tactical disadvantage as Lily In Pink and came from even further back due to a slow start. She also picked up a lot of ground late while moving well to finish fifth. She's surely capable of winning a Listed race sometime soon and has the potential to do even better.
CERTIFY CONFIRMS HER CLASS
CERTIFY (37) confirmed how good she is when stretching her unbeaten record to four runs in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket.
The early pace wasn't fast enough to produce a good final time. They hit the three furlong marker 3.1 seconds later than they did in the Joel Stakes over the same distance. But Certify picked up really well from there to cover the final three furlongs around 1.5 seconds faster than the older horses. When I adjust her rating to reflect this it indicates the third Group 1 class performance from the Godolphin filly.
Certify clearly has a good turn of foot and can run a bit faster than this when extended according to my ratings. She deserves to be favourite for the 1000 Guineas off this run, though I still think her old rival Sky Lantern is just as good a candidate for the race.
YES, TELESCOPE LOOKS A DERBY PROSPECT
I don't especially like agreeing with everyone else's assessment of a race. But I have to concede the majority view that TELESCOPE (36) is a decent Derby prospect looks right following his comfortable win in a mile maiden at Newmarket.
The final time Telescope clocked wasn't great. But when I factor in the fact that the final three furlongs of his race was run around 1,67 seconds faster than the slightly shorter Somerville Tattersalls Stakes on the same card I come up with a Group 3 class rating for his performance.
Telescope was only ridden out hands and heels in the final furlong and was eased up in the last few strides. This latter move cost him around half a length. And if I say he could have added another half length as well if driven right out that would take his win up to borderline Group 1 territory.
For a horse built and bred to go a mile and a half Telescope clearly has a very decent turn of foot - the kind that a horse needs to win the top middle distance races.
It would be interesting to see what Telescope could do if taking up his entry in the Racing Post Trophy. But that seems unlikely judged by comments from his trainer Sir Michael Stoute. So we're going to have to wait until next year to see just how good he is. It will be interesting at that time to see if Stoute runs him in the Dante as three of his five Derby winners prepped for Epsom in that contest.
FANTASTIC MOON SHOULD DO BETTER OVER LONGER
At the beginning of September FANTASTIC MOON (36) produced a remarkably strong finish to win the Solario Stakes. He looked set to begin a similarly powerful finish approaching the two furlong marker in the Royal Lodge Stakes last week. At that stage he was moving well only two and a half lengths off the leader. That's when things went wrong.
First Fantastic Moon took a bump and then he was badly squeezed out, turned briefly sideways and lost a good deal of amount. Ten seconds after the trouble started he was about six and a half lengths behind. Then he started moving forwards again and picked up really strongly to end up fifth by five lengths. I estimate he would have finished second or third by around a length but for the trouble, and (I'm rating him on that basis.
The great thing about Fantastic Moon from a long term perspective is that he's clearly built and bred for middle distances. He certainly runs that way too. Next Spring he should have a good chance of taking a Derby Trial. Given his turn of foot, perhaps a French Derby Trial would be a good option, with the longest one, the 11 furlong Prix Hocquart being my choice. If he goes for a British Derby Trial I'd also like to see him shoot for the longest one at Lingfield. Trainer Jeremy Noseda has give six of his seven Derby Trial runners over the last seventeen years a warm up race first. So I imagine that will be the case with Fantastic Moon too.
I confess that the big concern I have about Fantastic Moon is his habit of running into traffic problems. The very best horses usually manage to avoid this, so I'm inclined to say he'll prove to be Group 2 rather than Group 1 class. But maybe over longer trips he'll be more manouverable and better able to avoid other horses.
The winner STEELER (37) disputed the lead or was very close to it all the way. With the first three furlongs being 1.7 seconds slower than in the later Sun Chariot Stakes this gave him and the runner up (who was alongside him all the way) a tactical advantage as the gallop quickened from five furlongs out.
Steeler was being rowed along from almost half a mile out to cope with the increased gallop but, like so many horses trained by Mark Johnston, kept on finding more. He eventually wore down the runner up to score by a length.
This run makes Steeler borderline Group 1 class on my ratings. Though I have him three lengths a mile behind Dawn Approach. Most likely he lacks the acceleration to crack it at the every top level. But I can't be definitive about that till he gets the chance to run middle distances next year.
Runner up ARTIGIANO (36) was always going a bit better than Steeler and looked set to move away to win by a length or so for a long way. But his ears started going back and forth in the closing stages, suggesting he wasn't as focused on the task at hand as the winner. And with Steeler running on with great determination he just got beat.
Artigiano is a good-bodied, mature, muscular pacey sort that has the build of a miler and the stride pattern of a fast ground specialist. His sire, dam and full brother were all best over seven to eight and a half furlongs in America and I suspect he will be too.
I imagine Godolphin have the UAE Guineas in mind for Artigiano. He should win because my impression is he could well be a Group 1 horse in the making. Later on the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) would be a logical target as would the St James's Palace Stakes (since they're usually run on fast ground). Meanwhile I'd like to see Artigiano given one more run this year as he clearly needs experience.
HONG KONG CUP THE RIGHT TARGET FOR SIYOUMA
Looking at SIYOUMA (39) you wouldn't think she'd be effective over a mile. She's a tall, rangy, long striding sort that looks built for middle distances. However she showed earlier this season that she could show smart form over a mile when a close, running on third in a sprint finish for the Falmouth Stakes. Last week, off a much stronger early gallop in the Sun Chariot Stakes over the same distance, she sat three lengths off the leader till eventually wearing her down a furlong out then holding off the rallying runner up.
After the race trainer Francois Doumen pointed out that the E P Taylor might well be a suitable race for Siyouma because at Woodbine "there’s quite a good bend and a good straight." This comment prompted me to re-analyse Siyouma's form. And sure enough it turned out she's done best on tracks with homestraights of three furlongs or more.
In fact since losing on her debut Siyouma has won three of the four times she's run on courses with homestraights of three furlongs or more. Her sole loss came when she lost the Falmouth Stakes by only a length and a quarter when asked to pick up ground into a sprint finish. On tracks with homestraights shorter than three furlongs she's lost four times out of four.
In the circumstances I think The E P Taylor is probably not a great target as the Woodbine home straight is only 480 yards. Doumen also suggested the Japanese Mile Championship as a possibility. But that race is run around a nine furlong oval with a two furlong homestraight.
Doumen also mentioned the Hong Kong Mile as a potential target. That's a better idea as it's run at Sha Tin where the homestraight is three furlongs. But I would have thought that the two furlong longer Hong Kong Cup would be more suitable due to the slower early pace that's the norm in Hong Kong and the lack of an uphill finish.
Runner up ELUSIVE KATE (38) stumbled quite badly at the start and finished with a twisted shoe and speedy cuts probably caused by this. So she did well to rally and run the winner to less than a length. She's matured into a good-bodied, classy sort that looks more like a colt.
If Elusive Kate hadn't run into trouble here, encountered soft ground in the Falmouth and been pressed too hard for the lead in the Marois she might well have won all eight of her European starts following her debut loss. I'm getting rather interested in her chances of taking the QEII. If the ground is fast for that race, the field smallish and there aren't any likely front runners to take her on for the lead I reckon she'll go very close.
Third placed LAUGH OUT LOUD (36) has yet to earn a rating better than Listed class from me but her performance here interested me. She's won four races over a mile, all off a moderate early gallop - basically stealing a Group 2 from the front at Chantilly earlier this year. Here though she was made to go much quicker than before. She was three lengths clear of her rivals for most of the race and only go caught with a furlong to go.
When I make a speed rating for Laugh Out Loud's first seven furlongs it works out to 39. That's good enough to win a Group 1 for fillies. This makes me rather interested in the fact she's now entered in the Group 1 Challenge Stakes over seven furlongs on October 13th. She'd be a very interesting candidate for that race on this showing.
BEAUTY PARLOUR (30) started favourite on her first start for Henry Cecil. But on reflection it was rather surprising to see him run her over a trip this short. She got away with running over a mile in the Pouliches (French 1000) due to a weak field, a searching early gallop set by her pacemaker and cut in the ground. But she produced better form when second in the ten and a half furlong Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and is built and bred for a mile and a half.
After getting bumped at the start but not losing much momentum when Elusive Kate stumbled next to her., Beauty Parlour moved well enough disputing fourth to halfway. But she got steadily outrun from there and her jockey allowed her to come home in her own time from a furlong and a half out when it was clear she wasn't able to get competitive.
Switching Beauty Parlour to Britain was a good idea as her lack of push button acceleration makes her vulnerable in the sprint finishes that are the norm in France. But there's basically nothing left for her in Britain this year. So I hope she's brought back next year when the Yorkshire Oaks would be a good target for her.
EBN ARAB SHOULD IMPROVE
HAVANA GOLD (36) made it four wins from as many completed starts when winning the Somerville Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket. Held up in last place, just lobbing along behind the good pace up front, he came through quite rapidly down the stands rails to pick up the leaders and run away from them when just shaken up in the closing stages.
Havana Gold has the build of a ten furlong horse. But I'm wary of saying he'll get that far at this stage as the thirty wins scored by his dam, her siblings and her foals have all been over a mile or less. He's only a Group 3 horse on what he's done so far but had a bit in hand here, so it's perfectly possible he's better than that.
If there was a Group 1 horse in the line up I suspect it was EBN ARAB (33) who finished fourth.
All the way up to the two furlong pole, Ebn Arab looked to be going better than his rivals. But he found surprisingly little under pressure for the second time in a row.
It could well be that Ebn Arab races too keenly when seeing plenty of daylight as was the case here and on his last start, both of which were in small fields. On his debut he was held up and had much more cover in a bigger field. That day he blasted clear for a five length win in a hot maiden.
The other obvious explanation is that Ebn Arab only lasted the seven furlongs on his debut due to a slow early pace. He's a big bodied, muscular sort that does have the look of a sprinter, so maybe a cut back to five or six furlongs is what's required. Either way my bet is Ebn Arab proves better than this in time.
RETRIEVE PROBABLY BEST FRESH
RETRIEVE (38) bounced back to something near his best to win a Listed race from the useful front runner Harris Tweed at Newmarket. The final furlong was a real slog - 13.54 seconds by my estimates. This was due to the runner up kicking for home a long way out.
It was interesting just how well Retrieve was staying on at the finish, seeing that his previous five wins had all been over 7-10 furlongs. Then again he'd been second and third in Australian Group 1's on his two previous tries beyond ten furlongs (including running second in the AJC Derby).
It looks like Retrieve is best when fresh, like a lot of horses that have had breathing problems. So I'd bet on him running below form if, as planned, he's brought out again soon. But next year I'll be interested in his chances first time out at the Dubai Carnival.
DECLARATION OF WAR COULD BE GROUP 1 CLASS
DECLARATION OF WAR (39) needed to prove he could act on turf before his win in a good conditions race at the Curragh last Sunday. His sire was a smart dirt sprinter, his dam had scored all her three wins on dirt and he and his full brother had both achieved all their successes on Fibresand - a surface that would be called dirt in America.
The Coolmore colt came through the test with flying colours to win comfortably in a rather oddly run race, where the pace was very slow for the first half mile.
The gallop increased markedly from three furlongs out, with the time from there being 37.74 seconds compared with 41.27 for the other ten furlong race on the card. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it indicates a Group class performance by the winner.
I suspect Declaration Of War can actually perform better than this as he looked to have a fair bit of energy to spare at the finish. In fact he's rather reminiscent of another Coolmore American bred colt in Await The Dawn who also won a late season ten furlong race before proving Group 1 class last season.
It would be interesting to see how well Declaration Of War would perform if taken to America and switched back to dirt for some of the top races on that surface. I imagine that would be the plan next year if he proves competitive in Group 1 company on turf. His first test at that level could come soon as he's entered in next month's Champion Stakes at Ascot.
VIZTORIA NOT SURE TO STAY A MILE
VIZTORIA (37) clocked a Group 1 class time for a 2YO filly when hosing up in the Blenheim Stakes at the Curragh. She simply cruised away from her rivals over the last quarter mile to win by seven and a half lengths.
Seeing that her sire and dam were middle distance pattern winners you'd think Viztoria would be a slam dunk to stay much further than the six furlongs of this race. However she is a close-coupled, rather short-necked sort that has the build of a sprinter, and her only sibling did not stay beyond seven furlongs.
The fact that Viztoria's connections apparently aim to run her in the six furlong Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte rather than take up her entry in the one mile Marcel Boussac suggests they have doubts about her stamina as well.
BATTLE OF MARENGO NEEDS TO DO MORE
Aidan O'Brien won the Beresford Stakes for the twelfth time when BATTLE OF MARENGO (35) took this year's renewal last Sunday.
The Coolmore colt is a narrow sort that was sweating and keen for most of the race.
He ran along in second place till pushed along to overhaul the runner up Orgilo Bay before striding clear in the final furlong and being allowed to coast the last few strides.
It's hard to give an accurate speed rating for Battle Of Marengo's performance as his race was the only one run on his part of the course. But a comparison of sectional times for the part of the course shared with other races suggests his run only merited a Listed class rating. The fact that the three and a half length runner up was only a nursery handicapper suggests the same conclusion.
It's also worth bearing in mind that none of O'Brien's previous eleven Beresford winners scored in Group 1 company at two. Six didn't win at all as three year olds and the other five won just the once.
Battle Of Marengo did beat the high class Trading Leather on his previous start, but that was the runner up's racecourse debut and lines of form and the clock suggest he ran well below the level he achieved next time. So, all in all, I don't see much evidence to warrant cutting Battle Of Marengo's price for the Derby or talking him up as a potential Racing Post Trophy winner. He needs to do more.
The horse I'll be taking from the race is third placed PROBABLY (32). This is a big-bodied, mature colt that looks a future mile and a half winner to me.
Probably cruised along in third place and was moving best of all rounding the home turn and all the way past the three furlong marker. However when he was asked to pick up the leaders he hung and looked unfocused. He eventually straightened up and kept on well enough in the final furlong, but the race was over by that point.
Earlier this season Probably won the Group 2 Railway Stakes on soft to heavy ground. But the surface was much slower this time around and I'm reminded of his trainer's earlier comments about him being a good actioned horse that should prefer faster ground.
I recognise that Probably's sire, his dam and her previous foals did not display stamina beyond a mile. But his dam is a full sister to a three mile chaser and he does look built for the Derby distance to me. So I'll be very interested to see how he performs when he gets the chance to go longer, especially on good ground.
GALLIPOT (39) clocked a time that would win many Group 1 races for fillies when wining the Listed Princess Royal Stakes at Newmarket. She disputed third and readily came through to lead and then clear away over a furlong out when the front running runner up finally tired.
It's tempting to say that Gallipot has suddenly improved and this is why she ran so moderately on her first five starts. But that's a lazy excuse to my way of thinking that doesn't tell us much. As I see it the most likely explanation for her recent turnaround is that she prefers right handed tracks and dislikes soft ground.
When she ran at Lingfield in July Gallipot had trouble handling the home turn, which of course is left handed. And her only recent loss was her admittedly good run when fourth in the Park Hill. That race is run around left-handed Doncaster which has the longest home turn in the world.
On seeing this performance the race I immediately thought of for Gallipot was the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp's Arc meeting. Longchamp is left handed and the ground is normally good or faster for the race. On looking up her entries I was interested to see that her connections had reached the same conclusion before me by entering her for the French race. There are some very good fillies entered in that race but I rate Gallipot the best of them barring Sapphire who would have to give her six and a half kilos (14 pounds) if lining up there rather than going for the Arc.
Runner up ALBAMARA (37) had the run of the race. She was able to amble along in the lead while clocking around 12.8 seconds or slower for each of the first four furlongs. She then wound up the pace to hit 12 seconds for less for each of the next seven furlongs before finally tiring and getting caught approaching the furlong pole.
Albamara is a rangy, long striding sort that doesn't look to have much acceleration, so this style of running surely suited her. It's the way they tend to run races in Germany and France, so I can see her winning a Listed or Group 3 race in one of those countries.
Third placed LILY IN PINK (37) was disadvantaged by being held up off the pace. This made it hard for her to gain any ground as the runner up kept cranking out one 12 second or faster furlong after another. It was only approaching the final furlong as the leader tired that she started to gain ground. She picked up a lot of ground on everything bar the winner in the final furlong and was still moving well passing the line.
It looks like Lily In Pink always needs her seasonal debut. Id' speculate that she doesn't quite stay a mile and three quarter as well. If two narrow losses had gone her way she would have won all six times she'd run less than a mile and three quarters excepting her seasonal debuts before this.
The lightly raced KHIONE (36) suffered from the same tactical disadvantage as Lily In Pink and came from even further back due to a slow start. She also picked up a lot of ground late while moving well to finish fifth. She's surely capable of winning a Listed race sometime soon and has the potential to do even better.
CERTIFY CONFIRMS HER CLASS
CERTIFY (37) confirmed how good she is when stretching her unbeaten record to four runs in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket.
The early pace wasn't fast enough to produce a good final time. They hit the three furlong marker 3.1 seconds later than they did in the Joel Stakes over the same distance. But Certify picked up really well from there to cover the final three furlongs around 1.5 seconds faster than the older horses. When I adjust her rating to reflect this it indicates the third Group 1 class performance from the Godolphin filly.
Certify clearly has a good turn of foot and can run a bit faster than this when extended according to my ratings. She deserves to be favourite for the 1000 Guineas off this run, though I still think her old rival Sky Lantern is just as good a candidate for the race.
YES, TELESCOPE LOOKS A DERBY PROSPECT
I don't especially like agreeing with everyone else's assessment of a race. But I have to concede the majority view that TELESCOPE (36) is a decent Derby prospect looks right following his comfortable win in a mile maiden at Newmarket.
The final time Telescope clocked wasn't great. But when I factor in the fact that the final three furlongs of his race was run around 1,67 seconds faster than the slightly shorter Somerville Tattersalls Stakes on the same card I come up with a Group 3 class rating for his performance.
Telescope was only ridden out hands and heels in the final furlong and was eased up in the last few strides. This latter move cost him around half a length. And if I say he could have added another half length as well if driven right out that would take his win up to borderline Group 1 territory.
For a horse built and bred to go a mile and a half Telescope clearly has a very decent turn of foot - the kind that a horse needs to win the top middle distance races.
It would be interesting to see what Telescope could do if taking up his entry in the Racing Post Trophy. But that seems unlikely judged by comments from his trainer Sir Michael Stoute. So we're going to have to wait until next year to see just how good he is. It will be interesting at that time to see if Stoute runs him in the Dante as three of his five Derby winners prepped for Epsom in that contest.
FANTASTIC MOON SHOULD DO BETTER OVER LONGER
At the beginning of September FANTASTIC MOON (36) produced a remarkably strong finish to win the Solario Stakes. He looked set to begin a similarly powerful finish approaching the two furlong marker in the Royal Lodge Stakes last week. At that stage he was moving well only two and a half lengths off the leader. That's when things went wrong.
First Fantastic Moon took a bump and then he was badly squeezed out, turned briefly sideways and lost a good deal of amount. Ten seconds after the trouble started he was about six and a half lengths behind. Then he started moving forwards again and picked up really strongly to end up fifth by five lengths. I estimate he would have finished second or third by around a length but for the trouble, and (I'm rating him on that basis.
The great thing about Fantastic Moon from a long term perspective is that he's clearly built and bred for middle distances. He certainly runs that way too. Next Spring he should have a good chance of taking a Derby Trial. Given his turn of foot, perhaps a French Derby Trial would be a good option, with the longest one, the 11 furlong Prix Hocquart being my choice. If he goes for a British Derby Trial I'd also like to see him shoot for the longest one at Lingfield. Trainer Jeremy Noseda has give six of his seven Derby Trial runners over the last seventeen years a warm up race first. So I imagine that will be the case with Fantastic Moon too.
I confess that the big concern I have about Fantastic Moon is his habit of running into traffic problems. The very best horses usually manage to avoid this, so I'm inclined to say he'll prove to be Group 2 rather than Group 1 class. But maybe over longer trips he'll be more manouverable and better able to avoid other horses.
The winner STEELER (37) disputed the lead or was very close to it all the way. With the first three furlongs being 1.7 seconds slower than in the later Sun Chariot Stakes this gave him and the runner up (who was alongside him all the way) a tactical advantage as the gallop quickened from five furlongs out.
Steeler was being rowed along from almost half a mile out to cope with the increased gallop but, like so many horses trained by Mark Johnston, kept on finding more. He eventually wore down the runner up to score by a length.
This run makes Steeler borderline Group 1 class on my ratings. Though I have him three lengths a mile behind Dawn Approach. Most likely he lacks the acceleration to crack it at the every top level. But I can't be definitive about that till he gets the chance to run middle distances next year.
Runner up ARTIGIANO (36) was always going a bit better than Steeler and looked set to move away to win by a length or so for a long way. But his ears started going back and forth in the closing stages, suggesting he wasn't as focused on the task at hand as the winner. And with Steeler running on with great determination he just got beat.
Artigiano is a good-bodied, mature, muscular pacey sort that has the build of a miler and the stride pattern of a fast ground specialist. His sire, dam and full brother were all best over seven to eight and a half furlongs in America and I suspect he will be too.
I imagine Godolphin have the UAE Guineas in mind for Artigiano. He should win because my impression is he could well be a Group 1 horse in the making. Later on the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) would be a logical target as would the St James's Palace Stakes (since they're usually run on fast ground). Meanwhile I'd like to see Artigiano given one more run this year as he clearly needs experience.
HONG KONG CUP THE RIGHT TARGET FOR SIYOUMA
Looking at SIYOUMA (39) you wouldn't think she'd be effective over a mile. She's a tall, rangy, long striding sort that looks built for middle distances. However she showed earlier this season that she could show smart form over a mile when a close, running on third in a sprint finish for the Falmouth Stakes. Last week, off a much stronger early gallop in the Sun Chariot Stakes over the same distance, she sat three lengths off the leader till eventually wearing her down a furlong out then holding off the rallying runner up.
After the race trainer Francois Doumen pointed out that the E P Taylor might well be a suitable race for Siyouma because at Woodbine "there’s quite a good bend and a good straight." This comment prompted me to re-analyse Siyouma's form. And sure enough it turned out she's done best on tracks with homestraights of three furlongs or more.
In fact since losing on her debut Siyouma has won three of the four times she's run on courses with homestraights of three furlongs or more. Her sole loss came when she lost the Falmouth Stakes by only a length and a quarter when asked to pick up ground into a sprint finish. On tracks with homestraights shorter than three furlongs she's lost four times out of four.
In the circumstances I think The E P Taylor is probably not a great target as the Woodbine home straight is only 480 yards. Doumen also suggested the Japanese Mile Championship as a possibility. But that race is run around a nine furlong oval with a two furlong homestraight.
Doumen also mentioned the Hong Kong Mile as a potential target. That's a better idea as it's run at Sha Tin where the homestraight is three furlongs. But I would have thought that the two furlong longer Hong Kong Cup would be more suitable due to the slower early pace that's the norm in Hong Kong and the lack of an uphill finish.
Runner up ELUSIVE KATE (38) stumbled quite badly at the start and finished with a twisted shoe and speedy cuts probably caused by this. So she did well to rally and run the winner to less than a length. She's matured into a good-bodied, classy sort that looks more like a colt.
If Elusive Kate hadn't run into trouble here, encountered soft ground in the Falmouth and been pressed too hard for the lead in the Marois she might well have won all eight of her European starts following her debut loss. I'm getting rather interested in her chances of taking the QEII. If the ground is fast for that race, the field smallish and there aren't any likely front runners to take her on for the lead I reckon she'll go very close.
Third placed LAUGH OUT LOUD (36) has yet to earn a rating better than Listed class from me but her performance here interested me. She's won four races over a mile, all off a moderate early gallop - basically stealing a Group 2 from the front at Chantilly earlier this year. Here though she was made to go much quicker than before. She was three lengths clear of her rivals for most of the race and only go caught with a furlong to go.
When I make a speed rating for Laugh Out Loud's first seven furlongs it works out to 39. That's good enough to win a Group 1 for fillies. This makes me rather interested in the fact she's now entered in the Group 1 Challenge Stakes over seven furlongs on October 13th. She'd be a very interesting candidate for that race on this showing.
BEAUTY PARLOUR (30) started favourite on her first start for Henry Cecil. But on reflection it was rather surprising to see him run her over a trip this short. She got away with running over a mile in the Pouliches (French 1000) due to a weak field, a searching early gallop set by her pacemaker and cut in the ground. But she produced better form when second in the ten and a half furlong Prix de Diane (French Oaks) and is built and bred for a mile and a half.
After getting bumped at the start but not losing much momentum when Elusive Kate stumbled next to her., Beauty Parlour moved well enough disputing fourth to halfway. But she got steadily outrun from there and her jockey allowed her to come home in her own time from a furlong and a half out when it was clear she wasn't able to get competitive.
Switching Beauty Parlour to Britain was a good idea as her lack of push button acceleration makes her vulnerable in the sprint finishes that are the norm in France. But there's basically nothing left for her in Britain this year. So I hope she's brought back next year when the Yorkshire Oaks would be a good target for her.
EBN ARAB SHOULD IMPROVE
HAVANA GOLD (36) made it four wins from as many completed starts when winning the Somerville Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket. Held up in last place, just lobbing along behind the good pace up front, he came through quite rapidly down the stands rails to pick up the leaders and run away from them when just shaken up in the closing stages.
Havana Gold has the build of a ten furlong horse. But I'm wary of saying he'll get that far at this stage as the thirty wins scored by his dam, her siblings and her foals have all been over a mile or less. He's only a Group 3 horse on what he's done so far but had a bit in hand here, so it's perfectly possible he's better than that.
If there was a Group 1 horse in the line up I suspect it was EBN ARAB (33) who finished fourth.
All the way up to the two furlong pole, Ebn Arab looked to be going better than his rivals. But he found surprisingly little under pressure for the second time in a row.
It could well be that Ebn Arab races too keenly when seeing plenty of daylight as was the case here and on his last start, both of which were in small fields. On his debut he was held up and had much more cover in a bigger field. That day he blasted clear for a five length win in a hot maiden.
The other obvious explanation is that Ebn Arab only lasted the seven furlongs on his debut due to a slow early pace. He's a big bodied, muscular sort that does have the look of a sprinter, so maybe a cut back to five or six furlongs is what's required. Either way my bet is Ebn Arab proves better than this in time.
RETRIEVE PROBABLY BEST FRESH
RETRIEVE (38) bounced back to something near his best to win a Listed race from the useful front runner Harris Tweed at Newmarket. The final furlong was a real slog - 13.54 seconds by my estimates. This was due to the runner up kicking for home a long way out.
It was interesting just how well Retrieve was staying on at the finish, seeing that his previous five wins had all been over 7-10 furlongs. Then again he'd been second and third in Australian Group 1's on his two previous tries beyond ten furlongs (including running second in the AJC Derby).
It looks like Retrieve is best when fresh, like a lot of horses that have had breathing problems. So I'd bet on him running below form if, as planned, he's brought out again soon. But next year I'll be interested in his chances first time out at the Dubai Carnival.
DECLARATION OF WAR COULD BE GROUP 1 CLASS
DECLARATION OF WAR (39) needed to prove he could act on turf before his win in a good conditions race at the Curragh last Sunday. His sire was a smart dirt sprinter, his dam had scored all her three wins on dirt and he and his full brother had both achieved all their successes on Fibresand - a surface that would be called dirt in America.
The Coolmore colt came through the test with flying colours to win comfortably in a rather oddly run race, where the pace was very slow for the first half mile.
The gallop increased markedly from three furlongs out, with the time from there being 37.74 seconds compared with 41.27 for the other ten furlong race on the card. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it indicates a Group class performance by the winner.
I suspect Declaration Of War can actually perform better than this as he looked to have a fair bit of energy to spare at the finish. In fact he's rather reminiscent of another Coolmore American bred colt in Await The Dawn who also won a late season ten furlong race before proving Group 1 class last season.
It would be interesting to see how well Declaration Of War would perform if taken to America and switched back to dirt for some of the top races on that surface. I imagine that would be the plan next year if he proves competitive in Group 1 company on turf. His first test at that level could come soon as he's entered in next month's Champion Stakes at Ascot.
VIZTORIA NOT SURE TO STAY A MILE
VIZTORIA (37) clocked a Group 1 class time for a 2YO filly when hosing up in the Blenheim Stakes at the Curragh. She simply cruised away from her rivals over the last quarter mile to win by seven and a half lengths.
Seeing that her sire and dam were middle distance pattern winners you'd think Viztoria would be a slam dunk to stay much further than the six furlongs of this race. However she is a close-coupled, rather short-necked sort that has the build of a sprinter, and her only sibling did not stay beyond seven furlongs.
The fact that Viztoria's connections apparently aim to run her in the six furlong Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte rather than take up her entry in the one mile Marcel Boussac suggests they have doubts about her stamina as well.
BATTLE OF MARENGO NEEDS TO DO MORE
Aidan O'Brien won the Beresford Stakes for the twelfth time when BATTLE OF MARENGO (35) took this year's renewal last Sunday.
The Coolmore colt is a narrow sort that was sweating and keen for most of the race.
He ran along in second place till pushed along to overhaul the runner up Orgilo Bay before striding clear in the final furlong and being allowed to coast the last few strides.
It's hard to give an accurate speed rating for Battle Of Marengo's performance as his race was the only one run on his part of the course. But a comparison of sectional times for the part of the course shared with other races suggests his run only merited a Listed class rating. The fact that the three and a half length runner up was only a nursery handicapper suggests the same conclusion.
It's also worth bearing in mind that none of O'Brien's previous eleven Beresford winners scored in Group 1 company at two. Six didn't win at all as three year olds and the other five won just the once.
Battle Of Marengo did beat the high class Trading Leather on his previous start, but that was the runner up's racecourse debut and lines of form and the clock suggest he ran well below the level he achieved next time. So, all in all, I don't see much evidence to warrant cutting Battle Of Marengo's price for the Derby or talking him up as a potential Racing Post Trophy winner. He needs to do more.
The horse I'll be taking from the race is third placed PROBABLY (32). This is a big-bodied, mature colt that looks a future mile and a half winner to me.
Probably cruised along in third place and was moving best of all rounding the home turn and all the way past the three furlong marker. However when he was asked to pick up the leaders he hung and looked unfocused. He eventually straightened up and kept on well enough in the final furlong, but the race was over by that point.
Earlier this season Probably won the Group 2 Railway Stakes on soft to heavy ground. But the surface was much slower this time around and I'm reminded of his trainer's earlier comments about him being a good actioned horse that should prefer faster ground.
I recognise that Probably's sire, his dam and her previous foals did not display stamina beyond a mile. But his dam is a full sister to a three mile chaser and he does look built for the Derby distance to me. So I'll be very interested to see how he performs when he gets the chance to go longer, especially on good ground.
EC1
On a break
GALLIPOT (39) clocked a time that would win many Group 1 races for fillies
I'm a big fan of this horse..posted it up to follow...but G1 time my arse..why o why does he put up silliness like this?
you don't need to do speed figures to see just how wide of the mark he is.
Bassettere ran a decent time on that card and is probably an 84 horse now...Gallipot's time was 21 lb faster per mile and gave 1lb...so gallipot can only have a speed figure of 105...i think myself thats a little below a G1 winning time even for fillies
I'm a big fan of this horse..posted it up to follow...but G1 time my arse..why o why does he put up silliness like this?
you don't need to do speed figures to see just how wide of the mark he is.
Bassettere ran a decent time on that card and is probably an 84 horse now...Gallipot's time was 21 lb faster per mile and gave 1lb...so gallipot can only have a speed figure of 105...i think myself thats a little below a G1 winning time even for fillies
Colin Phillips
At the Start
DAWN APPROACH DOES IT AGAIN BUT WILL HE TRAIN ON?
DAWN APPROACH (40) confirmed that he's the best two year old of 2012 with another strong performance to take the Dewhurst Stakes,
With a furlong and a half to run Dawn Approach looked to be in trouble as he was nearly two lengths behind his pacemaker Leitir Mor and being rowed along vigorously. But he picked up so well he went on to catch the leader and score by almost three lengths.
Trainer Jim Bolger says that Dawn Approach is a lazy horse and that's why he always takes a lot of stoking up before producing his trademark strong finish.
This laziness seems to affect his homework too because Bolger added "he can be a very gross horse and it won't be easy over the winter to keep the weight off him."
In the circumstances I'd like to see Dawn Approach given a prep race before the 2000 Guineas next year. And, given how hard he is to get fit, it's quite possible he will lose it. So I'd be inclined to hold off backing him ante-post for the 2000 Guineas. You might well get better than the current 5-2 if he loses his prep race.
In fact I'm not at all sure Dawn Approach is a good bet to win the 2000 Guineas at all - even if he does have a prep race.
It is true that six of the last 25 Dewhurst winners to run in the 2000 Guineas have won the first colt's Classic. However another statistic suggests we should be rather wary of Dawn Approach's Classic prospects. This stems from the fact that he's almost certain to head the Free Handicap.
You can see the cause for concern by looking at the top rated horses in the Free Handicap over the last 25 years which I show below in order of the ratings they earned:
................................rating.....2yo runs...2yo Gp1 wins...debut
Arazi.......................130.........8..............4.......................May
Celtic Swing...........130.........3...............1......................July
Reference Point.......127........3...............1.......................August
Warning...................127........4...............0.......................June
Xaar.........................127........5...............2.......................June
Alhaarth...................126........5...............1.......................July
Dream Ahead..........126.........4...............2.......................July
Hector Protector......126........6................3......................May
Frankel....................126.........4................1.....................August
Johannesburg...........126.........7................4.....................May
New Approach........126.........5................2.....................July
Fasilyev...................125.........5................2.....................April
High Estate..............125..........5................0.....................May
Machiavellian..........125.........3................2......................August
St Nicholas Abbey...124.........3.................1.....................August
Bakharoff.................123.........5.................1......................May
Minardi....................123.........3.................1......................July
Mujahid....................123.........4.................1......................July
Oasis Dream............123..........4.................1......................August
Revoque...................123.........4..................2.....................July
Shamaradal................123........3..................1.....................July
Teofilo.....................123..........5..................2.....................July
Mastercraftsman.......122..........5..................2.....................May
Bago.........................121..........4.................1......................August
Camelot....................119..........2..................1.....................July
Of the 25 horses that headed the Free Handicap 14 failed to win a Group 1 subsequently over a mile or more. And the earlier Free Handicap leaders made their juvenile debuts and the more runs they had at two the more likely they were to flop as three year olds.
In this regard it's worrying to note that Dawn Approach started his career way back in March and has now run six times. The stats suggest that he's more likely than not to flop as a three year old.
Runner up LEITR MOR (37) set a strong pace and looked a real threat to win it until his stablemate got rolling. The concern with him is that if one photo had gone against him he'd have lost all twelve of his starts. He's consistent and useful but the vast majority of European Group 1 winners win at least a third of their starts. So I'm a little dubious of him ever winning at the top level.
Third placed GEORGE VANCOUVER (36) lobbed along in last place before picking up when switched to the outside for his run before the two furlong pole. He rolled away from the whip to the stands side rail when his jockey Joseph O'Brien hit him with the whip just after the two furlong pole, forcing O'Brien to switch his whip to the other side. He then looked rather green which prompted O'Brien to put down his stick and jut ride him out vigorously with hands and heels for most of the last furlong.
My suspicion is that it was the slightly slow ground which was causing George Vancouver to roll around. He'd run clunkers and not handled mud on his first two starts but run seriously fast (rating 37) when a close second on fast ground in the Prix Morny.
Seeing how well he ran here for the step up to seven furlongs my bet is the slow early pace and sprint finish presented George Vancouver with problems on his previous start. He looks certain to stay a mile and will surely stay ten furlongs given his physique, pedigree and the way he stayed on here off a strong pace.
Fifth Placed ASHDAN (35) is a mature, quite tall, good-bodied, classy looking middle distance sort. He'd been spooked and bolted on the way to the start first time out and showed similar behaviour here during the race.
Held up in second last place, he moved up with two furlongs to run. But when George Vancouver rolled in towards him he swerved away from his rival and eased himself up a little. In the closing stages it was soon apparent that he wasn't going to catch George Vancouver for third and that he held fourth place safely, so he wasn't hard ridden for the last half furlong. My estimate is that he could have finished about three lengths closer, so I'm rating him on that basis.
Next year, when he gets the chance to run longer distances, I can see Ashdan doing better.
TRADING LEATHER NEEDS LONGER
TRADING LEATHER (38) clocked a Group 1 class time when winning a one mile Gowran Park maiden on his debut and did so again when taking the Group 3 Autumn Stakes over the same distance at Newmarket. This time around though he showed even more clearly that he's crying out for a longer distance.
With three furlongs to run Trading Leather was already being ridden along. He drifted out to over 6-1 in running as his jockey continued to be busy and Montiridge ranged alongside, looking to be going much better. However his stamina finally started to kick in close to the finish and he surged ahead to win by three quarters of a length. He was finishing so strongly that fifty yards past the line he was three lengths clear.
The Racing Post Trophy is an obvious target for Trading Leather. And trainer Jim Bolger says he will consider it for the horse if he recovers from this race in time.
The big worry about the Doncaster contest is that it quite often features a slow early pace and a sprint finish. Trading Leather would surely not be well suited by that at all. So if he runs in the race I hope Bolger pitches in Leitir Mor as a pacemaker.
Bolger says that Trading Leather needs a fast surface. So it's quite possible soft ground will rule him out of the Racing Post Trophy. Next season the plan is to go for the Derby by way of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. He continues to look a major candidate for Epsom. He should certainly be competitive in Group 1 company over a mile and half.
Runner up MONTIRIDGE (37) is a pacier, more athletic sort than the winner. He looked sure to win until Trading Leather produced his strong finish and he himself started hanging towards the rail. If you freeze the frame of the video at some points Montiridge looks to be turned sideways and about to run at a 45 degree angle through the running rail. He seems to be begging to be allowed to drift across to his left so that he can race against the rail, but the presence of Trading Leather prevented this.
It's possible that Montiridge is one of those horses that needs a rail to race against to produce his best form. More likely he was simply running green, as inexperienced horses do. My suspicion is that he'd also have preferred faster ground despite the evidence of his maiden win on soft going.
In any event Montiridge is a decent candidate for the Racing Post Trophy in his own right. A mile looks to be his right trip on looks and pedigree but I can see him getting ten furlongs.
RECKLESS ABANDON WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME WINNING AT THREE
RECKLESS ABANDON (38) clocked another fast time to win the Middle Park Stakes. He looked beaten but rallied gamely when the runner up ranged alongside.
Now though the future does not look bright for Reckless Abandon. His physique, pedigree and running style plus the recent history of the Middle Park all suggest that he is a sprinter pure and simple. And the weight for age scale confers a huge advantage to the older horses Reckless Abandon will be forced to tackle in the top sprints next year.
In the old days horses placed in the Middle Park were quite often decent Guineas prospects. But since 1996 horses that finished in the first three in the race have lost all 44 times they've run beyond seven furlongs at three while winning 21 times out of 125 in sprints. In fact only two of the last sixteen Middle Park winners won at all as three year olds.
I can't see the BHA correcting the huge error in the WFA scale that makes it so tough for three year olds to win Group 1 sprints. But there's surely a good case for staging a few Group 1, 2 and 3 sprints that are restricted to three year olds. Otherwise we're going to continue to see high class two year old sprinters disappear off the radar the next season.
Runner up MOOHAAJIM (38) came out of the pack, moving better than the winner and went into a narrow lead. He looked sure to go on and win the race but was worried out of it by a very game rival. He still looks a decent proposition to stay a mile, but there are faster horses that look more certain to do so. Therefore I'm now getting more dubious about his prospects of winning a Group 1.
RAZ DE MAREE STAYS REALLY WELL
I liked the way that RAZ DE MAREE (39) stayed on remorselessly from four out to win the Munster National by over six lengths in good time. He came home more than a second faster over the last four jumps than the useful winner of the novice chase did in a contest over four and a half furlongs shorter. Both races were truly run but his time works out as four lengths a mile better on my ratings.
Raz de Maree was being rowed along all the way from four out until settling the issue between the last two and going clear. He clearly has abundant stamina to keep going so strongly at the end of a strongly run three miles on heavy ground.
Two runs back Raz De Maree lost his action when second on good ground at Kilbeggan. He's now lost all five times he's run on going faster than yielding but won both times he's tackled three mile plus chases on a softer surface.
Given his lack of stature it's possible that Raz De Maree won't take to the big fences at Aintree. But I'd like to see him given a shot in next month's Becher Chase. His trainer Dessie Hughes has won that race with two of the three runners he's had in it (the other ran third). I can see Raz De Maree winning it too if his official rating goes up enough for him to get into the race and the ground has a bit of cut in it
US LAW NEEDS TO LEAD
US LAW (37) earned a borderline Group 1 rating from me for a 2yo at this time of year when winning the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud. And he certainly looked impressive.
However I should note that I base my rating on the sectional times for the race. These show that US Law was allowed to set an absolute crawl of a gallop. He reached the 600 metre mark 7.6 seconds later than they did in the Tierce handicap over the same distance. But from there he really turned on the gas, sprinting the final 600 metres 4.06 seconds faster than they went in the handicap.
Normally I'd have no problem saying a horse that earned a big rating in this way could reproduce the same level of form in a strongly run race. However it does look like US Law is particularly well suited by being allowed to dominate a small field from the front at a slow pace. He did this when winning his maiden against four rivals and when beating five opponents here.
On the two occasions US Law has faced bigger fields he has lost after failing to get to the front early, despite looking like he was asked to do so in his previous outing the Group 3 Prix des Chenes, where the early pace was strong. In that race he finally managed to lead early in the straight but got caught and beat into third, running about three to four lengths below the form he showed this time.
US Law's owner says the colt relaxes better when he's able to lead, and this does seem apparent from the videos of his races.
In America they'd call US Law a 'need to lead' horse. And such horses have obvious tactical problems, particularly in big races where large fields and pacemakers can force them to go too fast to get the lead or prevent them from getting to the front altogether - as happened in the Prix des Chenes where the early pace was strong.
In the circumstances I'm inclined to say that US Law is likely to have trouble winning a Group 1 despite the obvious merit of his performance in this race. That said, he is a smart miler who might just sneak a race at the top level if allowed his own way up front.
US Law's pedigree and physique suggest that the mile of the Prix Thomas Bryon is likely to prove his maximum effective distance. So the plan to run him next in the Group 1 Criterium International over the same course and distance next time looks a good one. His chance there will surely depend on whether he's able to get to the front early without having to run too hard.
Runner up KENHOPE (35) looks an interesting proposition for next season when she'll get the chance to run the longer distances she's built and bred for,
Kenhope raced a length second all the way until the winner started to get away from her approaching the final furlong. It looked like the Aga Khan horse Visiyani (34) who finished third was going to stay on past her into second. But in the final 75 yards she started to pick up again and was slowly eating into the winner's lead all the way to the line.
Kenhope was a neck second over six furlongs first time then won over seven at Maisons-Laffitte. She's a good moving sort that looks like she wants much faster ground than the heavy going she faced here. And she looks built for ten furlongs.
Kenhope's sire was second in a Group 3 and fourth in a Group 1 both over a mile. Her German dam lost all twelve of her starts and ended up being claimed by the owner of her sire when shipping over to France for a claiming race - basically because she's a half sister to the Listed winner Bedford Forest. Kenhope is her first foal.
If she was mine I'd be looking at the Prix Saint-Alary as Kenhope's big long term target. The Prix Saint-Alary is invariably a weak Group 1 that draws a small field due to the fact that the better French fillies target the Prix de Diane run soon after. This means Kenhope would have a good shot of placing in it at least, thereby enhancing her stud value. Meanwhile she should have a good chance of winning her next outing back against fillies in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on the 24th of October.
PENGLAI PAVILION A GOOD DERBY PROSPECT
PENGLAI PAVILION (34) is a well proportioned, classy looking colt with a terrific pedigree that looked a proper Derby prospect when winning a debutante's race over a mile at Saint-Cloud.
Confidently ridden, Penglai Pavilion was allowed to coast along on the wide outside in third place off the slow early gallop then picked up really well in the sprint up the straight. He was only pushed out with hands and heels but quickly pulled clear in the final furlong to win by three lengths. He ran the final three furlongs a second slower than the much harder ridden winner of the Prix Thomas Bryon. But it looked clear he could have gone a fair bit quicker if pushed harder.
Penglai Pavilion is a good moving sort, so I have no concerns about how he'll act on faster ground. Right now he holds no Group race entries. However he will surely be put into the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud when entries for that race opens. His physique and pedigree plus the way he finished suggest the distance of that race will suit him perfectly.
If Penglai Pavilion gets switched by Sheikh Mohammed to his UK Godolphin operation next year I'd bet on him getting supplemented for the Derby. That seems the most likely plan. If he stays in France he'll be a solid candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club and especially the longer Grand Prix de Paris.
PASTORIUS GETS MORE INTERESTING
PASTORIUS (39) won his Group 3 prep for the Champion Stakes in decent fashion at Hoppegarten.
The early pace was slow for the first two furlongs and Pastorius pulled against it. But once the front running Durban Thunder quickened up he settled to race smoothly in third, three to four lengths off the leader.
Durban Thunder had enjoyed a soft lead and was asked to use the energy he'd saved once hitting the straight. He stretched out well as he accelerated and briefly Pastorius looked in trouble. His jockey rowed him along and he was having trouble closing the gap. However a couple of cracks with the whip saw him get upsides Durban Thunder. He was then able to go away and win by a length and a quarter with his rider just keeping him up to his work and not using the stick in the last furlong.
Pastorius keeps on banging out times that are just a bit shy of Group 1 class. But this handsome colt keeps looking like he can run faster. I'm therefore going to be interested in what he can do when tackling Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes next time. That race should finally give us the chance to see just how good he is. His trainer says he's probably best on softer ground and that's worth bearing in mind. Though I'm taking that comment with a pinch of salt right now as he won this race and the German derby on good ground.
DAWN APPROACH (40) confirmed that he's the best two year old of 2012 with another strong performance to take the Dewhurst Stakes,
With a furlong and a half to run Dawn Approach looked to be in trouble as he was nearly two lengths behind his pacemaker Leitir Mor and being rowed along vigorously. But he picked up so well he went on to catch the leader and score by almost three lengths.
Trainer Jim Bolger says that Dawn Approach is a lazy horse and that's why he always takes a lot of stoking up before producing his trademark strong finish.
This laziness seems to affect his homework too because Bolger added "he can be a very gross horse and it won't be easy over the winter to keep the weight off him."
In the circumstances I'd like to see Dawn Approach given a prep race before the 2000 Guineas next year. And, given how hard he is to get fit, it's quite possible he will lose it. So I'd be inclined to hold off backing him ante-post for the 2000 Guineas. You might well get better than the current 5-2 if he loses his prep race.
In fact I'm not at all sure Dawn Approach is a good bet to win the 2000 Guineas at all - even if he does have a prep race.
It is true that six of the last 25 Dewhurst winners to run in the 2000 Guineas have won the first colt's Classic. However another statistic suggests we should be rather wary of Dawn Approach's Classic prospects. This stems from the fact that he's almost certain to head the Free Handicap.
You can see the cause for concern by looking at the top rated horses in the Free Handicap over the last 25 years which I show below in order of the ratings they earned:
................................rating.....2yo runs...2yo Gp1 wins...debut
Arazi.......................130.........8..............4.......................May
Celtic Swing...........130.........3...............1......................July
Reference Point.......127........3...............1.......................August
Warning...................127........4...............0.......................June
Xaar.........................127........5...............2.......................June
Alhaarth...................126........5...............1.......................July
Dream Ahead..........126.........4...............2.......................July
Hector Protector......126........6................3......................May
Frankel....................126.........4................1.....................August
Johannesburg...........126.........7................4.....................May
New Approach........126.........5................2.....................July
Fasilyev...................125.........5................2.....................April
High Estate..............125..........5................0.....................May
Machiavellian..........125.........3................2......................August
St Nicholas Abbey...124.........3.................1.....................August
Bakharoff.................123.........5.................1......................May
Minardi....................123.........3.................1......................July
Mujahid....................123.........4.................1......................July
Oasis Dream............123..........4.................1......................August
Revoque...................123.........4..................2.....................July
Shamaradal................123........3..................1.....................July
Teofilo.....................123..........5..................2.....................July
Mastercraftsman.......122..........5..................2.....................May
Bago.........................121..........4.................1......................August
Camelot....................119..........2..................1.....................July
Of the 25 horses that headed the Free Handicap 14 failed to win a Group 1 subsequently over a mile or more. And the earlier Free Handicap leaders made their juvenile debuts and the more runs they had at two the more likely they were to flop as three year olds.
In this regard it's worrying to note that Dawn Approach started his career way back in March and has now run six times. The stats suggest that he's more likely than not to flop as a three year old.
Runner up LEITR MOR (37) set a strong pace and looked a real threat to win it until his stablemate got rolling. The concern with him is that if one photo had gone against him he'd have lost all twelve of his starts. He's consistent and useful but the vast majority of European Group 1 winners win at least a third of their starts. So I'm a little dubious of him ever winning at the top level.
Third placed GEORGE VANCOUVER (36) lobbed along in last place before picking up when switched to the outside for his run before the two furlong pole. He rolled away from the whip to the stands side rail when his jockey Joseph O'Brien hit him with the whip just after the two furlong pole, forcing O'Brien to switch his whip to the other side. He then looked rather green which prompted O'Brien to put down his stick and jut ride him out vigorously with hands and heels for most of the last furlong.
My suspicion is that it was the slightly slow ground which was causing George Vancouver to roll around. He'd run clunkers and not handled mud on his first two starts but run seriously fast (rating 37) when a close second on fast ground in the Prix Morny.
Seeing how well he ran here for the step up to seven furlongs my bet is the slow early pace and sprint finish presented George Vancouver with problems on his previous start. He looks certain to stay a mile and will surely stay ten furlongs given his physique, pedigree and the way he stayed on here off a strong pace.
Fifth Placed ASHDAN (35) is a mature, quite tall, good-bodied, classy looking middle distance sort. He'd been spooked and bolted on the way to the start first time out and showed similar behaviour here during the race.
Held up in second last place, he moved up with two furlongs to run. But when George Vancouver rolled in towards him he swerved away from his rival and eased himself up a little. In the closing stages it was soon apparent that he wasn't going to catch George Vancouver for third and that he held fourth place safely, so he wasn't hard ridden for the last half furlong. My estimate is that he could have finished about three lengths closer, so I'm rating him on that basis.
Next year, when he gets the chance to run longer distances, I can see Ashdan doing better.
TRADING LEATHER NEEDS LONGER
TRADING LEATHER (38) clocked a Group 1 class time when winning a one mile Gowran Park maiden on his debut and did so again when taking the Group 3 Autumn Stakes over the same distance at Newmarket. This time around though he showed even more clearly that he's crying out for a longer distance.
With three furlongs to run Trading Leather was already being ridden along. He drifted out to over 6-1 in running as his jockey continued to be busy and Montiridge ranged alongside, looking to be going much better. However his stamina finally started to kick in close to the finish and he surged ahead to win by three quarters of a length. He was finishing so strongly that fifty yards past the line he was three lengths clear.
The Racing Post Trophy is an obvious target for Trading Leather. And trainer Jim Bolger says he will consider it for the horse if he recovers from this race in time.
The big worry about the Doncaster contest is that it quite often features a slow early pace and a sprint finish. Trading Leather would surely not be well suited by that at all. So if he runs in the race I hope Bolger pitches in Leitir Mor as a pacemaker.
Bolger says that Trading Leather needs a fast surface. So it's quite possible soft ground will rule him out of the Racing Post Trophy. Next season the plan is to go for the Derby by way of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. He continues to look a major candidate for Epsom. He should certainly be competitive in Group 1 company over a mile and half.
Runner up MONTIRIDGE (37) is a pacier, more athletic sort than the winner. He looked sure to win until Trading Leather produced his strong finish and he himself started hanging towards the rail. If you freeze the frame of the video at some points Montiridge looks to be turned sideways and about to run at a 45 degree angle through the running rail. He seems to be begging to be allowed to drift across to his left so that he can race against the rail, but the presence of Trading Leather prevented this.
It's possible that Montiridge is one of those horses that needs a rail to race against to produce his best form. More likely he was simply running green, as inexperienced horses do. My suspicion is that he'd also have preferred faster ground despite the evidence of his maiden win on soft going.
In any event Montiridge is a decent candidate for the Racing Post Trophy in his own right. A mile looks to be his right trip on looks and pedigree but I can see him getting ten furlongs.
RECKLESS ABANDON WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME WINNING AT THREE
RECKLESS ABANDON (38) clocked another fast time to win the Middle Park Stakes. He looked beaten but rallied gamely when the runner up ranged alongside.
Now though the future does not look bright for Reckless Abandon. His physique, pedigree and running style plus the recent history of the Middle Park all suggest that he is a sprinter pure and simple. And the weight for age scale confers a huge advantage to the older horses Reckless Abandon will be forced to tackle in the top sprints next year.
In the old days horses placed in the Middle Park were quite often decent Guineas prospects. But since 1996 horses that finished in the first three in the race have lost all 44 times they've run beyond seven furlongs at three while winning 21 times out of 125 in sprints. In fact only two of the last sixteen Middle Park winners won at all as three year olds.
I can't see the BHA correcting the huge error in the WFA scale that makes it so tough for three year olds to win Group 1 sprints. But there's surely a good case for staging a few Group 1, 2 and 3 sprints that are restricted to three year olds. Otherwise we're going to continue to see high class two year old sprinters disappear off the radar the next season.
Runner up MOOHAAJIM (38) came out of the pack, moving better than the winner and went into a narrow lead. He looked sure to go on and win the race but was worried out of it by a very game rival. He still looks a decent proposition to stay a mile, but there are faster horses that look more certain to do so. Therefore I'm now getting more dubious about his prospects of winning a Group 1.
RAZ DE MAREE STAYS REALLY WELL
I liked the way that RAZ DE MAREE (39) stayed on remorselessly from four out to win the Munster National by over six lengths in good time. He came home more than a second faster over the last four jumps than the useful winner of the novice chase did in a contest over four and a half furlongs shorter. Both races were truly run but his time works out as four lengths a mile better on my ratings.
Raz de Maree was being rowed along all the way from four out until settling the issue between the last two and going clear. He clearly has abundant stamina to keep going so strongly at the end of a strongly run three miles on heavy ground.
Two runs back Raz De Maree lost his action when second on good ground at Kilbeggan. He's now lost all five times he's run on going faster than yielding but won both times he's tackled three mile plus chases on a softer surface.
Given his lack of stature it's possible that Raz De Maree won't take to the big fences at Aintree. But I'd like to see him given a shot in next month's Becher Chase. His trainer Dessie Hughes has won that race with two of the three runners he's had in it (the other ran third). I can see Raz De Maree winning it too if his official rating goes up enough for him to get into the race and the ground has a bit of cut in it
US LAW NEEDS TO LEAD
US LAW (37) earned a borderline Group 1 rating from me for a 2yo at this time of year when winning the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud. And he certainly looked impressive.
However I should note that I base my rating on the sectional times for the race. These show that US Law was allowed to set an absolute crawl of a gallop. He reached the 600 metre mark 7.6 seconds later than they did in the Tierce handicap over the same distance. But from there he really turned on the gas, sprinting the final 600 metres 4.06 seconds faster than they went in the handicap.
Normally I'd have no problem saying a horse that earned a big rating in this way could reproduce the same level of form in a strongly run race. However it does look like US Law is particularly well suited by being allowed to dominate a small field from the front at a slow pace. He did this when winning his maiden against four rivals and when beating five opponents here.
On the two occasions US Law has faced bigger fields he has lost after failing to get to the front early, despite looking like he was asked to do so in his previous outing the Group 3 Prix des Chenes, where the early pace was strong. In that race he finally managed to lead early in the straight but got caught and beat into third, running about three to four lengths below the form he showed this time.
US Law's owner says the colt relaxes better when he's able to lead, and this does seem apparent from the videos of his races.
In America they'd call US Law a 'need to lead' horse. And such horses have obvious tactical problems, particularly in big races where large fields and pacemakers can force them to go too fast to get the lead or prevent them from getting to the front altogether - as happened in the Prix des Chenes where the early pace was strong.
In the circumstances I'm inclined to say that US Law is likely to have trouble winning a Group 1 despite the obvious merit of his performance in this race. That said, he is a smart miler who might just sneak a race at the top level if allowed his own way up front.
US Law's pedigree and physique suggest that the mile of the Prix Thomas Bryon is likely to prove his maximum effective distance. So the plan to run him next in the Group 1 Criterium International over the same course and distance next time looks a good one. His chance there will surely depend on whether he's able to get to the front early without having to run too hard.
Runner up KENHOPE (35) looks an interesting proposition for next season when she'll get the chance to run the longer distances she's built and bred for,
Kenhope raced a length second all the way until the winner started to get away from her approaching the final furlong. It looked like the Aga Khan horse Visiyani (34) who finished third was going to stay on past her into second. But in the final 75 yards she started to pick up again and was slowly eating into the winner's lead all the way to the line.
Kenhope was a neck second over six furlongs first time then won over seven at Maisons-Laffitte. She's a good moving sort that looks like she wants much faster ground than the heavy going she faced here. And she looks built for ten furlongs.
Kenhope's sire was second in a Group 3 and fourth in a Group 1 both over a mile. Her German dam lost all twelve of her starts and ended up being claimed by the owner of her sire when shipping over to France for a claiming race - basically because she's a half sister to the Listed winner Bedford Forest. Kenhope is her first foal.
If she was mine I'd be looking at the Prix Saint-Alary as Kenhope's big long term target. The Prix Saint-Alary is invariably a weak Group 1 that draws a small field due to the fact that the better French fillies target the Prix de Diane run soon after. This means Kenhope would have a good shot of placing in it at least, thereby enhancing her stud value. Meanwhile she should have a good chance of winning her next outing back against fillies in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on the 24th of October.
PENGLAI PAVILION A GOOD DERBY PROSPECT
PENGLAI PAVILION (34) is a well proportioned, classy looking colt with a terrific pedigree that looked a proper Derby prospect when winning a debutante's race over a mile at Saint-Cloud.
Confidently ridden, Penglai Pavilion was allowed to coast along on the wide outside in third place off the slow early gallop then picked up really well in the sprint up the straight. He was only pushed out with hands and heels but quickly pulled clear in the final furlong to win by three lengths. He ran the final three furlongs a second slower than the much harder ridden winner of the Prix Thomas Bryon. But it looked clear he could have gone a fair bit quicker if pushed harder.
Penglai Pavilion is a good moving sort, so I have no concerns about how he'll act on faster ground. Right now he holds no Group race entries. However he will surely be put into the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud when entries for that race opens. His physique and pedigree plus the way he finished suggest the distance of that race will suit him perfectly.
If Penglai Pavilion gets switched by Sheikh Mohammed to his UK Godolphin operation next year I'd bet on him getting supplemented for the Derby. That seems the most likely plan. If he stays in France he'll be a solid candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club and especially the longer Grand Prix de Paris.
PASTORIUS GETS MORE INTERESTING
PASTORIUS (39) won his Group 3 prep for the Champion Stakes in decent fashion at Hoppegarten.
The early pace was slow for the first two furlongs and Pastorius pulled against it. But once the front running Durban Thunder quickened up he settled to race smoothly in third, three to four lengths off the leader.
Durban Thunder had enjoyed a soft lead and was asked to use the energy he'd saved once hitting the straight. He stretched out well as he accelerated and briefly Pastorius looked in trouble. His jockey rowed him along and he was having trouble closing the gap. However a couple of cracks with the whip saw him get upsides Durban Thunder. He was then able to go away and win by a length and a quarter with his rider just keeping him up to his work and not using the stick in the last furlong.
Pastorius keeps on banging out times that are just a bit shy of Group 1 class. But this handsome colt keeps looking like he can run faster. I'm therefore going to be interested in what he can do when tackling Frankel and Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes next time. That race should finally give us the chance to see just how good he is. His trainer says he's probably best on softer ground and that's worth bearing in mind. Though I'm taking that comment with a pinch of salt right now as he won this race and the German derby on good ground.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
POSTED ON OCTOBER 21, 2012
FRANKEL'S FINAL WIN RAISES SERIOUS QUESTIONS FOR FUTURE
I thought Cirrus des Aigles had a major chance of beating FRANKEL (44) in the Champion Stakes. He ran a great race but initially looked to be outclassed when Frankel just blew on by him in the closing stages.
However the French champion rallied and forced Frankel to be ridden vigorously and even hit with the whip to hold him off. Cirrus des Aigles' jockey eventually accepted defeat in the last half furlong and put his own whip down to lose by a length and three quarters. If he'd beaten him up perhaps he'd have finished a half length closer.
Rather than adding to the celebrations of Frankel's career, and because nobody else seems prepared to do it, I think it's appropriate to question just how good he truly was.
There now seems to be near unanimous agreement that Frankel was the best horse of all time.
That's quite some claim.
As I see it extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And the truth is, brilliant as he was, the evidence is skimpy for Frankel. This is primarily because he never raced outside Britain. His connections exploited the fact that there are so many Group 1's in Britain, and Europe generally, that the best horses are often able to avoid each other. Yes he won fourteen times in fourteen starts, but in seven of those wins he faced five or fewer opponents - one of which was often his pacemaker.
Frankel never broke a course record. He never came close to breaking the European earnings record. He scared away the opposition to the point where he beat the same outclassed opponent into second place in four of his last ten starts. It wasn't until his final outing that he faced a genuinely top class rival trained outside Britain and Ireland. That rival of course was Cirrus Des Aigles who he had to be hard ridden to beat by a length and three quarters.
I am very wary of saying that the earlier huge ratings awarded to Frankel by everyone, including me, resulted from anything more than the amplification in winning margins caused when a top class horse meets outclassed rivals. Ratings are not facts. They are simply a numerical expression of someone's opinion. And opinions can be wrong.
In other sports competitors actually have to set some new objective standard in height, speed, time, trophies or earnings to be hailed as a champion. It is only in horse racing that reputation and opinion seem to be enough.
The question I'm left with at the end of his career is 'would Frankel have remained unbeaten if his owners had been as adventurous as those who owned Falbrav?'
Falbrav came within two photo finishes of winning Group 1's in seven different countries. In doing so he tackled a far greater variety of distances, surfaces, tracks and pace scenarios than Frankel ever has. He won much more prize money too.
The reason Frankel's connections were so unadventurous was clearly to protect his stud value. He's now worth somewhere between 100 to 150 million pounds as a stallion. When Falbrav retired to stud many were surprised he fetched as much as US$30 million.
It is the over-supply and resulting weakness of Group 1 races in Europe that makes it possible for the connections of a top class horse to carefully stage manage their career so that they stay unbeaten as Frankel did.
In Japan, where there are on average 17 runners in Group 1 races this kind of thing is simply not possible. The connections of even all time great horses don't even think of trying to protect an unbeaten record to preserve their charge's stud value. The sport benefits greatly from this. Not just in Japan but internationally too. The owners of Japanese champions such as El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact and Orfevre have shown that they're prepared to run them overseas in conditions they haven't faced before. If field sizes in Japanese Group 1's were small enough for Japanese champions to stay unbeaten I doubt that their owners would be so sporting.
Back when the pattern system was introduced in 1971 the Group 1 designation was restricted to Classics, really prestigious WFA races and the very best 2yo races. Only 42 races held Group 1 status in Britain, Ireland and France in 1971. But by 1996 the number of Group 1 races run in Europe's top three racing nations was allowed to grow to 59. And by last year it had mushroomed to 72. This rate of growth far exceeds that of the racehorse population.
A Group 1 should surely be a genuine championship event where all the best horses line up - as is the case in Japan. But the massive increase in European Group 1's has devalued the original idea of what a Group 1 should be. All too often nowadays European Group 1's feature a handful of runners with one horse so dominant it starts at long odds on.
The best way to stop so many of our top races being uncompetitive would be to scrap the pattern race system altogether. This would allow each race to be judged on its merits rather than having its class judged in advance by some faceless committee. The alternative would be to curtail the number of Group 1's, just like they do in Japan. If we allow the number of European Group 1's to keep on rising year after year we're going to see ever more uncompetitive 'championship' events and more 'champions' that retire unbeaten but untested.
Having gotten that off my chest let me return to my proper task of seeing if their are any future winners likely to come out of the race.
Most obvious in this regard is our old friend CIRRUS DES AIGLES (43) who took his earnings over the four million pound mark by finishing second. He already holds the European earnings record and might just have a shot at the world earnings record of around seven million if he holds his form for another season.
The next engagement Cirrus Des Aigles holds is in the Japan Cup. The concern there is that the race comes five weeks after the Champion Stakes.
Cirrus Des Aigles is a stuffy horse that normally needs a recent run to be race fit. He did win the Prix Dollar off a long break two runs back despite losing the previous dozen times he'd come into a race off a break longer than a month. So I'm hoping his trainer has now found a way to keep him fully fit at home. That would be great because in the Japan Cup Cirrus Des Aigles faces off against the Japanese champion Orfevre. So the race could well decide just who is the best horse on the planet now that Frankel has retired.
If it turns out Cirrus Des Aigles needs the run in the Japan Cup there's always the Hong Kong Cup a couple of weeks later. He was forced to race wide from post thirteen in the race in 2010 and didn't get a clear run last year. He might well have won both times but for these problems.
This time around I imagine the plan will be to send Cirrus des Aigles to the front or close to it, to avoid traffic problems in Hong Kong. That means his chance may well depend on not getting an extreme outside draw.
FORGET ABOUT EXCELEBRATION IN BREEDERS' CUP MILE
EXCELEBRATION (43) put up his best ever performance to take the QEII by three lengths in fast time. The way he picked up at the end of a strongly run mile on soft ground forces me to ditch my previous theory that he might be best over seven furlongs.
It's now clear Excelebration actually appreciates a greater stamina test than he normally gets over a mile. He's won all five times he's run on soft or heavy ground. And here he took a race that is the most testing of all Group 1 races over a mile due to the stiff course and strong pace that it invariably features. In fact six of the last ten renewals of the QEII would have gone to a horse that had previously placed in a Group 1 over a mile and a half but for Rip Van Winkle losing by a nose in 2010.
The concern this raises is that Excelebration will not be suited by the Breeders' Cup Mile. I say this because in America turf races, even those over a mile, are run French style. They feature a slow early pace and a sprint finish. This is why French horses have won seven times in the Breeders' Cup Mile and British and Irish horses just three times.
One of the three British and Irish wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile was by Ridgewood Pearl on one of those rare occasions it was run on soft ground. The other two were by Barathea, who'd run a close fourth in the 6f July Cup earlier that season and Loyal Tycoon, who'd won the Nunthorpe and the King's Stand over 5f that season.
The lesson that it takes a British or Irish sprinter to win the Breeders Cup Mile has not been lost on trainers. The last six winners of the QEII that went on to run at the big American meeting all contested Breeders' Cup races over ten furlongs or more.
The awful record of QEII winners in the Breeders' Cup Mile rams the point home:
1998...Desert Prince..............................14th
1994...Bigstone.......................................8th
1993...Bigstone.......................................6th
1992...Selkirk..........................................5th
1990...Markofdistinction.........................7th
1989...Zilzal............................................6th
1988...Warning.......................................12th
1987...Milligram.....................................13th
1985...Shadeed..........................................4th
It looks rather clear that unless there's an incredibly unseasonal downpour in California Excelebration is not going to place in the Breeders' Cup Mile. The idea of taking the bookie's miserly 6-4 and 7-4 about his chances looks plain daft to me (he's forecast to start 5-1 by the American publication Daily Racing Form behind the obvious favourite Wise Dan). I think the stable should reconsider their plans and aim the horse at the Hong Kong Mile or Japan's Champions Mile instead. Better yet, put him away for the season and aim him at the Dubai Duty Free in the Spring. A win in that race over nine furlongs would prove his stamina and thereby increase his stud value.
POSTED ON OCTOBER 21, 2012
FANTASTIC RACE BETWEEN SHADOW GATE AND ERNEST HEMMINGWAY
A couple of years ago Takashi Kodama produced a remarkable training performance when he won a race at the Galway Festival with nine year old Pop Rock, the former Japanese star that had come within a short head of winning the Melbourne Cup four years earlier.
Earlier this week at Dundalk he topped even that effort when taking a conditions race with ten year old SHADOW GATE (40) who had won the Singapore Airlines Cup way back in 2007.
Shadow Gate was held up off the furious gallop set by Ernest Hemmingway then stayed on late to collar that one when he tired up the straight. In doing so he broke the course record for Dundalk's 1m 2f & 150 yards by nearly half a second to produce what I rate a solid Group 2 class effort.
If Taksahi Kodama can produce Shadow Gate in the same sort of form next year he might just be able to break the record set by 10yo Yavana's Pace ten years ago and become the oldest horse ever to win a Group 1 flat race.
The race was notable for the astonishing pace set by the Coolmore colt ERNEST HEMMINGWAY (38).
By taking the times at each furlong marker and then using the speeds in between to calculate the other seventy yards I estimate that Ernest Hemmingway ran the first seven furlongs 0.7 of a second faster than the winner of the seven furlong 60-95 handicap, which I rated the next fastest race on the card. He ran the first mile only a fifth of a second slower than the track record for that distance. And he reached the three furlong marker an almost impossible 5.9 seconds earlier than they did in the truly run handicap over the same trip won by Raydari, who is now two for two on Polytrack.
Running up to the three furlong marker Ernest Hemmingway really opened up on his rivals to blast six and a half lengths clear. He was full of running and looked uncatchable at that point. But soon afterwards the pace began to tell and he was steadily reeled in by his pursuers, though only the former Japanese star actually managed to catch him.
On his previous start in the Arc Ernest Hemmingway ran tremendously fast for the first nine and a half furlongs, taking the field along at a pace that made me happy to award him a rating of 40 for his effort up to that point. If they'd stopped this race after nine and a half furlongs he'd have earned the same rating from me again.
If he were mine I'd be giving serious thought to running Ernest Hemmingway in the Premio Roma next month. His performance for the first mile and a quarter in the Arc showed that he can act on the soft ground that race is usually run on, and it would give him a real shot of securing a Group 1 win.
Hopefully Ernest Hemmingway will stay in training next season. Ridden with a little more restraint he could well become one of the top ten furlong horses in Europe, with the Prix Ganay being an obvious early target. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won that race twice in recent seasons.
Fourth placed CERTERACH (37) was two lengths clear of everything else with a furlong to run but paid the price for chasing after a couple of high class rivals and tired late to just get caught for third on the line. He's relatively lightly raced for a four year old and fast enough to win a Listed contest on this showing. He's big enough for jumping and already a gelding, so it would be interesting if his connections chose to go that route. Though I should add it looks pretty clear he needs a fast surface, so normal Winter ground would not suit him.
TARLA IS A VERY GOOD CHASING PROSPECT
TARLA (37) is a good-boded, deep-chested, long striding mare that looks every inch a three mile chaser. And if there was any doubt she soon dispelled it when jumping the very first hurdle on her way to winning the Grade 3 Grabel Mares Hurdle at Punchestown. She cleared the obstacle with three feet to spare and went on to give three more jumps plenty of daylight as she made all the running before cruising clear in the closing stages. She obviously won't have any trouble jumping a fence.
Tarla was never under pressure and simply coasted clear from some way out. She was allowed to just amble home from the last and I'm certain she could have got home from there at least as fast as the winner of the other Grade 3 hurdle on the card if she'd been ridden as hard, so I'm rating her on that basis.
All Tarla's four siblings that raced more than once have been steeplechasers. And I'm sure trainer Willie Mullins is right to suggest her future lies over the bigger jumps.
The fashion over the last decade or so has been to run future three mile chasers over shorter distances, even two miles, in their novice season. I imagine this will be the route pursued with Tarla as it has brought such positive results for so many horses. However it does mean she's going to be in danger of defeat if the ground isn't slow enough or the pace fast enough to bring her obvious stamina into play.
It's rare that a mare proves capable of winning a Grade 1 over fences. But Tarla has the size and scope to do the job. I'm going to be very interested if she ends up running in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham or the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. She might just have the pace to win one of the big two and a half mile novice chases too.
Rest pattern in her form....
ROI DU MEE TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS
If ROI DU MEE (40) were a bit bigger he'd be recognised as one of the best chasers. But unfortunately his lack of stature seems to ensure he can only produce his best in steeplechases with five runners or less.
Roi De Mee broke his maiden over fences in a minor race with a big field but has lost the other dozen times he's tackled chases with six or more runners. In chase fields of five or less he's won four times out of five and finished second to the high class Kauto Stone in his only loss.
Earlier this week Roi Du Mee had an ideal opportunity against just four rivals in the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Punchestown.
He was allowed to go clear at a pace that enabled him to save enough to accelerate from five out to the point where he came home from the fourth last 2.47 seconds faster than they did in the preceding Grade 3 novice chase over five furlongs less. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it points to a solid Grade 2 performance by the winner.
Runner up MAGNANIMITY (38) got left behind when Roi Du Mee started accelerating five out. He was hustled to close back up four out. The winner then got away from him again, but he was staying on once more to close the gap on the run in.
It takes a lot of class, stamina and ability for a horse to make two runs in a good three mile chase run in mud. And looking at Magnanimity's stamina-laden performance here it was hard not to think of the Grand National as a very tempting target. After all, thanks to a disastrous season last term, his official mark had dropped to just 140 for this race. That would put him on a mark of around 10-3 in the Grand National. So his connections must now give thought to whether they want to (a) wrap him in cotton wool and do everything to protect his mark for Aintree such as running him over hurdles or (b) shoot for all the big three mile conditions chases.
The most likely reason for Magnanimity's flop last season was breathing problems. After all he was tried in a tongue tie a couple of times last season and bounced back to form when one was re-applied here.
Horses with breathing problems often dislike steeply undulating tracks, especially testing one (as the uphill sections put too much stress on their breathing). So I'd be a little wary of supporting Magnanimity at tracks like Cheltenham, Down Royal or Fairyhouse. In addition, although all his wins under rules and this good run were on heavy ground I don't think he needs it that way. He ran a big race in the RSA Chase as a novice on good ground off a searching early gallop. As long as the pace is strong and the distance far enough I think he'll do fine on a faster surface.
Third placed JONCOL (38) won a slow run Hennessy Gold Cup over three miles back in 2010. But he's never seemed to quite get home in his other half dozen starts under rules beyond two and three quarter miles. He kept on really well here over 2m 7f but was clearly tired in the closing stages and blew hard after the race apparently - though this was certainly due at least in part to the fact he's a giant of a horse that must be very hard to get fit off a ten month break like he had before this contest.
Joncol has won five of the six times he's run two and a half to two and three quarter miles and finished a smart second to the high class Rubi Light in the John Durkan Memorial in his only loss. This run suggests he's as good as ever and will be hard to beat when he gets the soft ground he needs in chases over his optimum distance range.
BAILY GREEN PROBABLY BEST OVER TWO AND A HALF MILES
BAILY GREEN (38) won his sixth race in a row when taking a strongly run renewal of the Grade 3 Buck House Novices Chase at Punchestown in good style, jumping much better than most novices, which is one of his trademarks.
After leading early Baily Green's jockey allowed the runner up Special Tara to go on as he was going quite a clip. The leader eventually tired from two out whereupon Baily Green re-took the lead and surged fifteen lengths clear by the line.
Seeing how strongly built he is and given how well he stayed on here I'd be pretty confident that two and a half miles is more suitable for Baily Green than the two and a quarter miles of this race. Indeed he's already won over the longer distance.
Baily Green has been outclassing his rivals while winning in a wide variety of circumstances. It looks likely that he's going to prove capable of going up again in class before he starts showing a clear preference for certain distances, tracks and surfaces.
Runner up SPEICAL TIARA (31) set a strong pace and jumped well. He was going really well till stopping to nothing two out. If the race had been a quarter of a mile shorter he'd surely have given the winner something to think about. That's the way it looked to me anyway, and the recent comments of his jockey about him being a real two miler suggest he agrees. So I'll be very interested in his chances if he cuts back to two miles next time, especially if he drops in class as well, particularly around a tight track where his pace will be even more of an asset.
SEMPRE MEDICI SHOULD GO FOR CRITERIUM DE SAINT-CLOUD
SEMPRE MEDICI (36) clocked a Group class time when winning a nine furlong race fur debutantes run in swamp-like conditions at Longchamp.
The early pace was reasonable but it picked up steadily after half a mile. The last three furlongs was a real slog in the desperate ground but Sempre Medici kept on moving strongly, banging out 13.7 seconds for the third last furlong, 12.7 for the penultimate downhill furlong and 13.5 for the final furlong - during which his jockey took a long look around as his mount coasted clear.
It's possible that Sempre Medici is uniquely well suited by bottomless ground. And I concede his only sibling, Ed De Gas, and sire, Medicean, both handled soft surfaces. But for the immediate future that's not a problem because his obvious target has to be the Criterium de Sauint-Cloud, a ten furlong race that almost always features very soft or heavy ground.
Sempre Medici is a rather narrow, light-framed sort that looks built for longer distances. He should certainly stay a mile and a half, perhaps longer.
US LAW NEEDS TO LEAD
US LAW (37) earned a borderline Group 1 rating from me for a 2yo at this time of year when winning the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud. And he certainly looked impressive.
However I should note that I base my rating on the sectional times for the race. These show that US Law was allowed to set an absolute crawl of a gallop. He reached the 600 metre mark 7.6 seconds later than they did in the Tierce handicap over the same distance. But from there he really turned on the gas, sprinting the final 600 metres 4.06 seconds faster than they went in the handicap.
Normally I'd have no problem saying a horse that earned a big rating in this way could reproduce the same level of form in a strongly run race. However it does look like US Law is particularly well suited by being allowed to dominate a small field from the front at a slow pace. He did this when winning his maiden against four rivals and when beating five opponents here.
On the two occasions US Law has faced bigger fields he has lost after failing to get to the front early, despite looking like he was asked to do so in his previous outing the Group 3 Prix des Chenes, where the early pace was strong. In that race he finally managed to lead early in the straight but got caught and beat into third, running about three to four lengths below the form he showed this time.
US Law's owner says the colt relaxes better when he's able to lead, and this does seem apparent from the videos of his races.
In America they'd call US Law a 'need to lead' horse. And such horses have obvious tactical problems, particularly in big races where large fields and pacemakers can force them to go too fast to get the lead or prevent them from getting to the front altogether - as happened in the Prix des Chenes where the early pace was strong.
In the circumstances I'm inclined to say that US Law is likely to have trouble winning a Group 1 despite the obvious merit of his performance in this race. That said, he is a smart miler who might just sneak a race at the top level if allowed his own way up front.
US Law's pedigree and physique suggest that the mile of the Prix Thomas Bryon is likely to prove his maximum effective distance. So the plan to run him next in the Group 1 Criterium International over the same course and distance next time looks a good one. His chance there will surely depend on whether he's able to get to the front early without having to run too hard.
Runner up KENHOPE (35) looks an interesting proposition for next season when she'll get the chance to run the longer distances she's built and bred for,
Kenhope raced a length second all the way until the winner started to get away from her approaching the final furlong. It looked like the Aga Khan horse Visiyani (34) who finished third was going to stay on past her into second. But in the final 75 yards she started to pick up again and was slowly eating into the winner's lead all the way to the line.
Kenhope was a neck second over six furlongs first time then won over seven at Maisons-Laffitte. She's a good moving sort that looks like she wants much faster ground than the heavy going she faced here. And she looks built for ten furlongs.
Kenhope's sire was second in a Group 3 and fourth in a Group 1 both over a mile. Her German dam lost all twelve of her starts and ended up being claimed by the owner of her sire when shipping over to France for a claiming race - basically because she's a half sister to the Listed winner Bedford Forest. Kenhope is her first foal.
If she was mine I'd be looking at the Prix Saint-Alary as Kenhope's big long term target. The Prix Saint-Alary is invariably a weak Group 1 that draws a small field due to the fact that the better French fillies target the Prix de Diane run soon after. This means Kenhope would have a good shot of placing in it at least, thereby enhancing her stud value. Meanwhile she should have a good chance of winning her next outing back against fillies in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on the 24th of October.
PENGLAI PAVILION A GOOD DERBY PROSPECT
PENGLAI PAVILION (34) is a well proportioned, classy looking colt with a terrific pedigree that looked a proper Derby prospect when winning a debutante's race over a mile at Saint-Cloud.
Confidently ridden, Penglai Pavilion was allowed to coast along on the wide outside in third place off the slow early gallop then picked up really well in the sprint up the straight. He was only pushed out with hands and heels but quickly pulled clear in the final furlong to win by three lengths. He ran the final three furlongs a second slower than the much harder ridden winner of the Prix Thomas Bryon. But it looked clear he could have gone a fair bit quicker if pushed harder.
Penglai Pavilion is a good moving sort, so I have no concerns about how he'll act on faster ground. Right now he holds no Group race entries. However he will surely be put into the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud when entries for that race opens. His physique and pedigree plus the way he finished suggest the distance of that race will suit him perfectly.
If Penglai Pavilion gets switched by Sheikh Mohammed to his UK Godolphin operation next year I'd bet on him getting supplemented for the Derby. That seems the most likely plan. If he stays in France he'll be a solid candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club and especially the longer Grand Prix de Paris.
FRANKEL'S FINAL WIN RAISES SERIOUS QUESTIONS FOR FUTURE
I thought Cirrus des Aigles had a major chance of beating FRANKEL (44) in the Champion Stakes. He ran a great race but initially looked to be outclassed when Frankel just blew on by him in the closing stages.
However the French champion rallied and forced Frankel to be ridden vigorously and even hit with the whip to hold him off. Cirrus des Aigles' jockey eventually accepted defeat in the last half furlong and put his own whip down to lose by a length and three quarters. If he'd beaten him up perhaps he'd have finished a half length closer.
Rather than adding to the celebrations of Frankel's career, and because nobody else seems prepared to do it, I think it's appropriate to question just how good he truly was.
There now seems to be near unanimous agreement that Frankel was the best horse of all time.
That's quite some claim.
As I see it extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And the truth is, brilliant as he was, the evidence is skimpy for Frankel. This is primarily because he never raced outside Britain. His connections exploited the fact that there are so many Group 1's in Britain, and Europe generally, that the best horses are often able to avoid each other. Yes he won fourteen times in fourteen starts, but in seven of those wins he faced five or fewer opponents - one of which was often his pacemaker.
Frankel never broke a course record. He never came close to breaking the European earnings record. He scared away the opposition to the point where he beat the same outclassed opponent into second place in four of his last ten starts. It wasn't until his final outing that he faced a genuinely top class rival trained outside Britain and Ireland. That rival of course was Cirrus Des Aigles who he had to be hard ridden to beat by a length and three quarters.
I am very wary of saying that the earlier huge ratings awarded to Frankel by everyone, including me, resulted from anything more than the amplification in winning margins caused when a top class horse meets outclassed rivals. Ratings are not facts. They are simply a numerical expression of someone's opinion. And opinions can be wrong.
In other sports competitors actually have to set some new objective standard in height, speed, time, trophies or earnings to be hailed as a champion. It is only in horse racing that reputation and opinion seem to be enough.
The question I'm left with at the end of his career is 'would Frankel have remained unbeaten if his owners had been as adventurous as those who owned Falbrav?'
Falbrav came within two photo finishes of winning Group 1's in seven different countries. In doing so he tackled a far greater variety of distances, surfaces, tracks and pace scenarios than Frankel ever has. He won much more prize money too.
The reason Frankel's connections were so unadventurous was clearly to protect his stud value. He's now worth somewhere between 100 to 150 million pounds as a stallion. When Falbrav retired to stud many were surprised he fetched as much as US$30 million.
It is the over-supply and resulting weakness of Group 1 races in Europe that makes it possible for the connections of a top class horse to carefully stage manage their career so that they stay unbeaten as Frankel did.
In Japan, where there are on average 17 runners in Group 1 races this kind of thing is simply not possible. The connections of even all time great horses don't even think of trying to protect an unbeaten record to preserve their charge's stud value. The sport benefits greatly from this. Not just in Japan but internationally too. The owners of Japanese champions such as El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact and Orfevre have shown that they're prepared to run them overseas in conditions they haven't faced before. If field sizes in Japanese Group 1's were small enough for Japanese champions to stay unbeaten I doubt that their owners would be so sporting.
Back when the pattern system was introduced in 1971 the Group 1 designation was restricted to Classics, really prestigious WFA races and the very best 2yo races. Only 42 races held Group 1 status in Britain, Ireland and France in 1971. But by 1996 the number of Group 1 races run in Europe's top three racing nations was allowed to grow to 59. And by last year it had mushroomed to 72. This rate of growth far exceeds that of the racehorse population.
A Group 1 should surely be a genuine championship event where all the best horses line up - as is the case in Japan. But the massive increase in European Group 1's has devalued the original idea of what a Group 1 should be. All too often nowadays European Group 1's feature a handful of runners with one horse so dominant it starts at long odds on.
The best way to stop so many of our top races being uncompetitive would be to scrap the pattern race system altogether. This would allow each race to be judged on its merits rather than having its class judged in advance by some faceless committee. The alternative would be to curtail the number of Group 1's, just like they do in Japan. If we allow the number of European Group 1's to keep on rising year after year we're going to see ever more uncompetitive 'championship' events and more 'champions' that retire unbeaten but untested.
Having gotten that off my chest let me return to my proper task of seeing if their are any future winners likely to come out of the race.
Most obvious in this regard is our old friend CIRRUS DES AIGLES (43) who took his earnings over the four million pound mark by finishing second. He already holds the European earnings record and might just have a shot at the world earnings record of around seven million if he holds his form for another season.
The next engagement Cirrus Des Aigles holds is in the Japan Cup. The concern there is that the race comes five weeks after the Champion Stakes.
Cirrus Des Aigles is a stuffy horse that normally needs a recent run to be race fit. He did win the Prix Dollar off a long break two runs back despite losing the previous dozen times he'd come into a race off a break longer than a month. So I'm hoping his trainer has now found a way to keep him fully fit at home. That would be great because in the Japan Cup Cirrus Des Aigles faces off against the Japanese champion Orfevre. So the race could well decide just who is the best horse on the planet now that Frankel has retired.
If it turns out Cirrus Des Aigles needs the run in the Japan Cup there's always the Hong Kong Cup a couple of weeks later. He was forced to race wide from post thirteen in the race in 2010 and didn't get a clear run last year. He might well have won both times but for these problems.
This time around I imagine the plan will be to send Cirrus des Aigles to the front or close to it, to avoid traffic problems in Hong Kong. That means his chance may well depend on not getting an extreme outside draw.
FORGET ABOUT EXCELEBRATION IN BREEDERS' CUP MILE
EXCELEBRATION (43) put up his best ever performance to take the QEII by three lengths in fast time. The way he picked up at the end of a strongly run mile on soft ground forces me to ditch my previous theory that he might be best over seven furlongs.
It's now clear Excelebration actually appreciates a greater stamina test than he normally gets over a mile. He's won all five times he's run on soft or heavy ground. And here he took a race that is the most testing of all Group 1 races over a mile due to the stiff course and strong pace that it invariably features. In fact six of the last ten renewals of the QEII would have gone to a horse that had previously placed in a Group 1 over a mile and a half but for Rip Van Winkle losing by a nose in 2010.
The concern this raises is that Excelebration will not be suited by the Breeders' Cup Mile. I say this because in America turf races, even those over a mile, are run French style. They feature a slow early pace and a sprint finish. This is why French horses have won seven times in the Breeders' Cup Mile and British and Irish horses just three times.
One of the three British and Irish wins in the Breeders' Cup Mile was by Ridgewood Pearl on one of those rare occasions it was run on soft ground. The other two were by Barathea, who'd run a close fourth in the 6f July Cup earlier that season and Loyal Tycoon, who'd won the Nunthorpe and the King's Stand over 5f that season.
The lesson that it takes a British or Irish sprinter to win the Breeders Cup Mile has not been lost on trainers. The last six winners of the QEII that went on to run at the big American meeting all contested Breeders' Cup races over ten furlongs or more.
The awful record of QEII winners in the Breeders' Cup Mile rams the point home:
1998...Desert Prince..............................14th
1994...Bigstone.......................................8th
1993...Bigstone.......................................6th
1992...Selkirk..........................................5th
1990...Markofdistinction.........................7th
1989...Zilzal............................................6th
1988...Warning.......................................12th
1987...Milligram.....................................13th
1985...Shadeed..........................................4th
It looks rather clear that unless there's an incredibly unseasonal downpour in California Excelebration is not going to place in the Breeders' Cup Mile. The idea of taking the bookie's miserly 6-4 and 7-4 about his chances looks plain daft to me (he's forecast to start 5-1 by the American publication Daily Racing Form behind the obvious favourite Wise Dan). I think the stable should reconsider their plans and aim the horse at the Hong Kong Mile or Japan's Champions Mile instead. Better yet, put him away for the season and aim him at the Dubai Duty Free in the Spring. A win in that race over nine furlongs would prove his stamina and thereby increase his stud value.
POSTED ON OCTOBER 21, 2012
FANTASTIC RACE BETWEEN SHADOW GATE AND ERNEST HEMMINGWAY
A couple of years ago Takashi Kodama produced a remarkable training performance when he won a race at the Galway Festival with nine year old Pop Rock, the former Japanese star that had come within a short head of winning the Melbourne Cup four years earlier.
Earlier this week at Dundalk he topped even that effort when taking a conditions race with ten year old SHADOW GATE (40) who had won the Singapore Airlines Cup way back in 2007.
Shadow Gate was held up off the furious gallop set by Ernest Hemmingway then stayed on late to collar that one when he tired up the straight. In doing so he broke the course record for Dundalk's 1m 2f & 150 yards by nearly half a second to produce what I rate a solid Group 2 class effort.
If Taksahi Kodama can produce Shadow Gate in the same sort of form next year he might just be able to break the record set by 10yo Yavana's Pace ten years ago and become the oldest horse ever to win a Group 1 flat race.
The race was notable for the astonishing pace set by the Coolmore colt ERNEST HEMMINGWAY (38).
By taking the times at each furlong marker and then using the speeds in between to calculate the other seventy yards I estimate that Ernest Hemmingway ran the first seven furlongs 0.7 of a second faster than the winner of the seven furlong 60-95 handicap, which I rated the next fastest race on the card. He ran the first mile only a fifth of a second slower than the track record for that distance. And he reached the three furlong marker an almost impossible 5.9 seconds earlier than they did in the truly run handicap over the same trip won by Raydari, who is now two for two on Polytrack.
Running up to the three furlong marker Ernest Hemmingway really opened up on his rivals to blast six and a half lengths clear. He was full of running and looked uncatchable at that point. But soon afterwards the pace began to tell and he was steadily reeled in by his pursuers, though only the former Japanese star actually managed to catch him.
On his previous start in the Arc Ernest Hemmingway ran tremendously fast for the first nine and a half furlongs, taking the field along at a pace that made me happy to award him a rating of 40 for his effort up to that point. If they'd stopped this race after nine and a half furlongs he'd have earned the same rating from me again.
If he were mine I'd be giving serious thought to running Ernest Hemmingway in the Premio Roma next month. His performance for the first mile and a quarter in the Arc showed that he can act on the soft ground that race is usually run on, and it would give him a real shot of securing a Group 1 win.
Hopefully Ernest Hemmingway will stay in training next season. Ridden with a little more restraint he could well become one of the top ten furlong horses in Europe, with the Prix Ganay being an obvious early target. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won that race twice in recent seasons.
Fourth placed CERTERACH (37) was two lengths clear of everything else with a furlong to run but paid the price for chasing after a couple of high class rivals and tired late to just get caught for third on the line. He's relatively lightly raced for a four year old and fast enough to win a Listed contest on this showing. He's big enough for jumping and already a gelding, so it would be interesting if his connections chose to go that route. Though I should add it looks pretty clear he needs a fast surface, so normal Winter ground would not suit him.
TARLA IS A VERY GOOD CHASING PROSPECT
TARLA (37) is a good-boded, deep-chested, long striding mare that looks every inch a three mile chaser. And if there was any doubt she soon dispelled it when jumping the very first hurdle on her way to winning the Grade 3 Grabel Mares Hurdle at Punchestown. She cleared the obstacle with three feet to spare and went on to give three more jumps plenty of daylight as she made all the running before cruising clear in the closing stages. She obviously won't have any trouble jumping a fence.
Tarla was never under pressure and simply coasted clear from some way out. She was allowed to just amble home from the last and I'm certain she could have got home from there at least as fast as the winner of the other Grade 3 hurdle on the card if she'd been ridden as hard, so I'm rating her on that basis.
All Tarla's four siblings that raced more than once have been steeplechasers. And I'm sure trainer Willie Mullins is right to suggest her future lies over the bigger jumps.
The fashion over the last decade or so has been to run future three mile chasers over shorter distances, even two miles, in their novice season. I imagine this will be the route pursued with Tarla as it has brought such positive results for so many horses. However it does mean she's going to be in danger of defeat if the ground isn't slow enough or the pace fast enough to bring her obvious stamina into play.
It's rare that a mare proves capable of winning a Grade 1 over fences. But Tarla has the size and scope to do the job. I'm going to be very interested if she ends up running in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham or the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. She might just have the pace to win one of the big two and a half mile novice chases too.
Rest pattern in her form....
ROI DU MEE TOUGH TO BEAT IN SMALL FIELDS
If ROI DU MEE (40) were a bit bigger he'd be recognised as one of the best chasers. But unfortunately his lack of stature seems to ensure he can only produce his best in steeplechases with five runners or less.
Roi De Mee broke his maiden over fences in a minor race with a big field but has lost the other dozen times he's tackled chases with six or more runners. In chase fields of five or less he's won four times out of five and finished second to the high class Kauto Stone in his only loss.
Earlier this week Roi Du Mee had an ideal opportunity against just four rivals in the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Punchestown.
He was allowed to go clear at a pace that enabled him to save enough to accelerate from five out to the point where he came home from the fourth last 2.47 seconds faster than they did in the preceding Grade 3 novice chase over five furlongs less. When I adjust my rating to reflect this it points to a solid Grade 2 performance by the winner.
Runner up MAGNANIMITY (38) got left behind when Roi Du Mee started accelerating five out. He was hustled to close back up four out. The winner then got away from him again, but he was staying on once more to close the gap on the run in.
It takes a lot of class, stamina and ability for a horse to make two runs in a good three mile chase run in mud. And looking at Magnanimity's stamina-laden performance here it was hard not to think of the Grand National as a very tempting target. After all, thanks to a disastrous season last term, his official mark had dropped to just 140 for this race. That would put him on a mark of around 10-3 in the Grand National. So his connections must now give thought to whether they want to (a) wrap him in cotton wool and do everything to protect his mark for Aintree such as running him over hurdles or (b) shoot for all the big three mile conditions chases.
The most likely reason for Magnanimity's flop last season was breathing problems. After all he was tried in a tongue tie a couple of times last season and bounced back to form when one was re-applied here.
Horses with breathing problems often dislike steeply undulating tracks, especially testing one (as the uphill sections put too much stress on their breathing). So I'd be a little wary of supporting Magnanimity at tracks like Cheltenham, Down Royal or Fairyhouse. In addition, although all his wins under rules and this good run were on heavy ground I don't think he needs it that way. He ran a big race in the RSA Chase as a novice on good ground off a searching early gallop. As long as the pace is strong and the distance far enough I think he'll do fine on a faster surface.
Third placed JONCOL (38) won a slow run Hennessy Gold Cup over three miles back in 2010. But he's never seemed to quite get home in his other half dozen starts under rules beyond two and three quarter miles. He kept on really well here over 2m 7f but was clearly tired in the closing stages and blew hard after the race apparently - though this was certainly due at least in part to the fact he's a giant of a horse that must be very hard to get fit off a ten month break like he had before this contest.
Joncol has won five of the six times he's run two and a half to two and three quarter miles and finished a smart second to the high class Rubi Light in the John Durkan Memorial in his only loss. This run suggests he's as good as ever and will be hard to beat when he gets the soft ground he needs in chases over his optimum distance range.
BAILY GREEN PROBABLY BEST OVER TWO AND A HALF MILES
BAILY GREEN (38) won his sixth race in a row when taking a strongly run renewal of the Grade 3 Buck House Novices Chase at Punchestown in good style, jumping much better than most novices, which is one of his trademarks.
After leading early Baily Green's jockey allowed the runner up Special Tara to go on as he was going quite a clip. The leader eventually tired from two out whereupon Baily Green re-took the lead and surged fifteen lengths clear by the line.
Seeing how strongly built he is and given how well he stayed on here I'd be pretty confident that two and a half miles is more suitable for Baily Green than the two and a quarter miles of this race. Indeed he's already won over the longer distance.
Baily Green has been outclassing his rivals while winning in a wide variety of circumstances. It looks likely that he's going to prove capable of going up again in class before he starts showing a clear preference for certain distances, tracks and surfaces.
Runner up SPEICAL TIARA (31) set a strong pace and jumped well. He was going really well till stopping to nothing two out. If the race had been a quarter of a mile shorter he'd surely have given the winner something to think about. That's the way it looked to me anyway, and the recent comments of his jockey about him being a real two miler suggest he agrees. So I'll be very interested in his chances if he cuts back to two miles next time, especially if he drops in class as well, particularly around a tight track where his pace will be even more of an asset.
SEMPRE MEDICI SHOULD GO FOR CRITERIUM DE SAINT-CLOUD
SEMPRE MEDICI (36) clocked a Group class time when winning a nine furlong race fur debutantes run in swamp-like conditions at Longchamp.
The early pace was reasonable but it picked up steadily after half a mile. The last three furlongs was a real slog in the desperate ground but Sempre Medici kept on moving strongly, banging out 13.7 seconds for the third last furlong, 12.7 for the penultimate downhill furlong and 13.5 for the final furlong - during which his jockey took a long look around as his mount coasted clear.
It's possible that Sempre Medici is uniquely well suited by bottomless ground. And I concede his only sibling, Ed De Gas, and sire, Medicean, both handled soft surfaces. But for the immediate future that's not a problem because his obvious target has to be the Criterium de Sauint-Cloud, a ten furlong race that almost always features very soft or heavy ground.
Sempre Medici is a rather narrow, light-framed sort that looks built for longer distances. He should certainly stay a mile and a half, perhaps longer.
US LAW NEEDS TO LEAD
US LAW (37) earned a borderline Group 1 rating from me for a 2yo at this time of year when winning the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud. And he certainly looked impressive.
However I should note that I base my rating on the sectional times for the race. These show that US Law was allowed to set an absolute crawl of a gallop. He reached the 600 metre mark 7.6 seconds later than they did in the Tierce handicap over the same distance. But from there he really turned on the gas, sprinting the final 600 metres 4.06 seconds faster than they went in the handicap.
Normally I'd have no problem saying a horse that earned a big rating in this way could reproduce the same level of form in a strongly run race. However it does look like US Law is particularly well suited by being allowed to dominate a small field from the front at a slow pace. He did this when winning his maiden against four rivals and when beating five opponents here.
On the two occasions US Law has faced bigger fields he has lost after failing to get to the front early, despite looking like he was asked to do so in his previous outing the Group 3 Prix des Chenes, where the early pace was strong. In that race he finally managed to lead early in the straight but got caught and beat into third, running about three to four lengths below the form he showed this time.
US Law's owner says the colt relaxes better when he's able to lead, and this does seem apparent from the videos of his races.
In America they'd call US Law a 'need to lead' horse. And such horses have obvious tactical problems, particularly in big races where large fields and pacemakers can force them to go too fast to get the lead or prevent them from getting to the front altogether - as happened in the Prix des Chenes where the early pace was strong.
In the circumstances I'm inclined to say that US Law is likely to have trouble winning a Group 1 despite the obvious merit of his performance in this race. That said, he is a smart miler who might just sneak a race at the top level if allowed his own way up front.
US Law's pedigree and physique suggest that the mile of the Prix Thomas Bryon is likely to prove his maximum effective distance. So the plan to run him next in the Group 1 Criterium International over the same course and distance next time looks a good one. His chance there will surely depend on whether he's able to get to the front early without having to run too hard.
Runner up KENHOPE (35) looks an interesting proposition for next season when she'll get the chance to run the longer distances she's built and bred for,
Kenhope raced a length second all the way until the winner started to get away from her approaching the final furlong. It looked like the Aga Khan horse Visiyani (34) who finished third was going to stay on past her into second. But in the final 75 yards she started to pick up again and was slowly eating into the winner's lead all the way to the line.
Kenhope was a neck second over six furlongs first time then won over seven at Maisons-Laffitte. She's a good moving sort that looks like she wants much faster ground than the heavy going she faced here. And she looks built for ten furlongs.
Kenhope's sire was second in a Group 3 and fourth in a Group 1 both over a mile. Her German dam lost all twelve of her starts and ended up being claimed by the owner of her sire when shipping over to France for a claiming race - basically because she's a half sister to the Listed winner Bedford Forest. Kenhope is her first foal.
If she was mine I'd be looking at the Prix Saint-Alary as Kenhope's big long term target. The Prix Saint-Alary is invariably a weak Group 1 that draws a small field due to the fact that the better French fillies target the Prix de Diane run soon after. This means Kenhope would have a good shot of placing in it at least, thereby enhancing her stud value. Meanwhile she should have a good chance of winning her next outing back against fillies in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville on the 24th of October.
PENGLAI PAVILION A GOOD DERBY PROSPECT
PENGLAI PAVILION (34) is a well proportioned, classy looking colt with a terrific pedigree that looked a proper Derby prospect when winning a debutante's race over a mile at Saint-Cloud.
Confidently ridden, Penglai Pavilion was allowed to coast along on the wide outside in third place off the slow early gallop then picked up really well in the sprint up the straight. He was only pushed out with hands and heels but quickly pulled clear in the final furlong to win by three lengths. He ran the final three furlongs a second slower than the much harder ridden winner of the Prix Thomas Bryon. But it looked clear he could have gone a fair bit quicker if pushed harder.
Penglai Pavilion is a good moving sort, so I have no concerns about how he'll act on faster ground. Right now he holds no Group race entries. However he will surely be put into the ten furlong Criterium de Saint-Cloud when entries for that race opens. His physique and pedigree plus the way he finished suggest the distance of that race will suit him perfectly.
If Penglai Pavilion gets switched by Sheikh Mohammed to his UK Godolphin operation next year I'd bet on him getting supplemented for the Derby. That seems the most likely plan. If he stays in France he'll be a solid candidate for the Prix du Jockey Club and especially the longer Grand Prix de Paris.
simmo
Senior Jockey
1 smack of the whip and a couple of shoves does not constitute hard riding.
Yes. Yes they can.
Let's hope that the Coolmore boys have also learned their lesson.
Incredible stuff!
The "strongly run mile" resulted in the whole field being covered by a handkerchief at the 2 pole (at which stage the horse that won't have the speed for the BCM travelled like a dream), and the uphill last furlong proved the quickest of the whole race.
Some of his conclusions on pace simply defy belief.
Strongly run mile lmfao it was as steady as could have been
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I love his conclusion on Magnaminity.
Nothing to do with the sh1t year Dessie had last year.
Nothing to do with the sh1t year Dessie had last year.
On The Bridle
At the Start
He must have the best handicapped horses in the world now... And a novice or two....
EC1
On a break
he's given excelebration a 43 speed figure..which is high on his scale..but how could that be when the pace early wasn't condusive to a high overall speed figure?
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
The fella is more biased towards Japanese horses than I am.
A 10 year old who couldn't win G1s in Japan when younger suddenly wins some tinpot race round Dundalk beating Ernest frigging Hemmingway and he is up to winning Group Ones?
If he bothered to edit his blogs down to get rid of the vast amounts of shite in there, they would be fantastic reads. As it is, I just skim read them as there's so much nonsense in there.
A 10 year old who couldn't win G1s in Japan when younger suddenly wins some tinpot race round Dundalk beating Ernest frigging Hemmingway and he is up to winning Group Ones?
If he bothered to edit his blogs down to get rid of the vast amounts of shite in there, they would be fantastic reads. As it is, I just skim read them as there's so much nonsense in there.
Apologies - Apparently, the final furlong wasn't the quickest in the race;
http://www.britishchampionsseries.com/stats-results/sectional-timing.html
the figures I used were from an RUK replay, and are incorrect.
Doesn't change my original view though, that the race was anything but "strongly run", and any inference drawn from that supposition is fundamentally flawed.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
TAWHID HAS A SERIOUS CHANCE IN 2000 GUINEAS
I've mentioned that the stats suggest there's a real chance champion two year old Dawn Approach won't train on. If he doesn't then Godolphin have a ready made replacement for him in TAWHID (36) who impressed me greatly when winning the Horris Hill Stakes.
Tawhid may not have clocked as fast a time as Dawn Approach has but the way he sprinted away from his rivals in the closing stages at Newbury tells me he can run a fair bit faster than he had to in order to win this race.
The way Tawhid changed gears so rapidly in the closing stages suggests he'll have no problem coping with a faster surface. It also suggests he's an out and out miler that's unlikely to stay longer. As I see it the 25-1 the bookies are offering about him for the 2000 Guineas is way too big. I'm pretty sure he'd have beaten Kingsbarns if he'd run in the Racing Post Trophy over at Doncaster, and Kingsbarns is only 8-1 for the 2000 Guineas despite looking more of a Derby prospect.
IS KINGSBARNS REALLY THAT SMART?
After he won easily on his debut I spent a lot of time playing around with the video of his race to try and find a way to say KINGSBARNS (36) was as good as people were saying.
The trouble was he clocked a time 0.7 of a second slower than the filly Dubaya on the same card and covered the last three furlongs 0.8 of a second slower. I worked out that he would have had to run the last three furlongs almost two seconds faster to have earned a Group class speed rating and that was almost a physical impossibility.
I concede Kingsbarns won with plenty in hand on his debut, but I have to admit I was surprised he managed to win the Racing Post Trophy.
Again the time Kingsbarns clocked was not great. I rated it a Listed class performance but have bumped it up to around Group 3 class by factoring in the slightly faster time he clocked over the final three furlongs.
Kingsbarns was always going well, stretched clear two furlongs out and was ridden out all the way to the line as the runner up started to reel him in through the final furlong. I guess he could have run a little quicker and yes he should improve over longer distances. But I don't see anything in this run that justifies him being made favourite for the Derby.
Runner up VAN DER DEER (34) had won on soft ground at Leicester but that was against just three rivals in a much weaker race. He's a good moving horse so I wasn't surprised his jockey said he wasn't getting through the going very well. No doubt he'll prove better than this next year on faster ground. He looks like a miler.
Third placed STEELER (34) ran a bit below his best. His connections blamed the fact that he was taken on for the lead by Trading Leather. But sectional times suggest he wasn't made to go too fast. I suspect he didn't like the soft ground.
Fifth placed TRADING LEATHER (29) was much the best horse in the race on my ratings. However trainer Jim Bolger had warned several times that he wanted good ground and wouldn't run him if it turned out too soft. I don't blame him for running Trading Leather as I thought the ground would ride a good deal faster than the official soft ground. In fact it only rode a little faster and was still yielding by my estimates. In the circumstances I think we can forgive this run. I still see him as a strong candidate for the Derby.
FOR NON STOP SHOULD GO FOR THE KING GEORGE
FOR NON STOP (40) won the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in good time. But I wouldn't get
carried away with his winning margin of 23 lengths. This was produced by Mad Max and Stagecoach Pearl taking the field along at a terrific pace that eventually told on everything bar the winner.
For None Stop worked his way through from the back to lead and was asked to kick clear between the last two. He did so very rapidly as his rivals tired.
The clock says this was a solid Grade 2 effort. But don't forget his trainer Nick Williams said after his last big win "each race takes a bit out of him so we’ll see how he takes this race.”
This does seem to be true. For Non Stop has yet to win a race when his previous outing was less than 48 days before. His record off breaks of 48 days plus though is exceptional. If you toss out his hurdles debut (which most horses lose) he's won all four times he's completed the course off a break of 48 days or more. One of the two races where he fell was the Coral Cup when he was on his way to finishing second. The other was a novice chase where he looked set to win easily when tipping up.
For Non Stop doesn't quite look good enough to win a Grade 1 chase yet. But the way he finished in this exceptionally strongly run two and a half mile race says to me that he's got a real chance of improving when stepped up to three miles. In fact, if he were mine I'd be strongly inclined to put him away to keep him fresh and bring him back over Christmas for a shot at the King George.
RASMEYAA A GROUP 1 FILLY
RASMEYAA (38) showed a serious turn of foot to run away with a maiden 2yo race over 7f at Leopardstown. Despite the genuinely soft ground she picked up amazingly well to clock just 23.94 seconds for the final quarter mile. The next fastest final two furlongs on the card was achieved by the top class Famous Name. He clocked 24.60 seconds, and that was off a very slow early pace. In the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes they took 25.60 seconds to reach the line from the two furlong marker.
When I adjust my speed rating to reflect her fantastic final two furlong sprint I come up with a figure that suggests Rasmeyaa is bang there with Certify, the top UK juvenile filly.
I'm sure trainer Dermot Weld is right to say that Rasmeyaa is going to prove best on a faster surface. Horses with acceleration like hers invariably are.
Go Native was just swinging on the bridle from a long way out. He was going so well jockey Nina Carberry was able to keep him to the outside to guarantee a clear run in the big field. When she asked him to go a furlong out the response was immediate. He spurted clear to open up a big advantage rapidly to win full of running.
I just wish the bookies were betting ante-post on the Irish 1000 Guineas. I'd bite their arm off to get 10-1 about Rasmeyaa. It's many years since Dermot Weld has run a horse in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, so tempting as the 25-1 about Rasmeyaa is for that race, I wouldn't want to bet on her being supplemented for it unless Weld makes a clear commitment to the idea.
GO NATIVE IS BACK
GO NATIVE (36) was awfully impressive when sprinting away with a 14 furlong flat race at Galway. When I compare his time with that of the fastest hurdle on the card from the same point (deducting 0.7 seconds for each hurdle) I come up with a Listed class speed rating for his effort. But I'm sure he could have gone a good deal faster if he'd been asked.
One impressive aspect of Go Native's performance was that the race was run on soft ground. Previously he's shown his best on a yielding or faster surface.
I've little doubt that Go Native is back to his best and will soon be winning more Grade 1 hurdles.
I've mentioned that the stats suggest there's a real chance champion two year old Dawn Approach won't train on. If he doesn't then Godolphin have a ready made replacement for him in TAWHID (36) who impressed me greatly when winning the Horris Hill Stakes.
Tawhid may not have clocked as fast a time as Dawn Approach has but the way he sprinted away from his rivals in the closing stages at Newbury tells me he can run a fair bit faster than he had to in order to win this race.
The way Tawhid changed gears so rapidly in the closing stages suggests he'll have no problem coping with a faster surface. It also suggests he's an out and out miler that's unlikely to stay longer. As I see it the 25-1 the bookies are offering about him for the 2000 Guineas is way too big. I'm pretty sure he'd have beaten Kingsbarns if he'd run in the Racing Post Trophy over at Doncaster, and Kingsbarns is only 8-1 for the 2000 Guineas despite looking more of a Derby prospect.
IS KINGSBARNS REALLY THAT SMART?
After he won easily on his debut I spent a lot of time playing around with the video of his race to try and find a way to say KINGSBARNS (36) was as good as people were saying.
The trouble was he clocked a time 0.7 of a second slower than the filly Dubaya on the same card and covered the last three furlongs 0.8 of a second slower. I worked out that he would have had to run the last three furlongs almost two seconds faster to have earned a Group class speed rating and that was almost a physical impossibility.
I concede Kingsbarns won with plenty in hand on his debut, but I have to admit I was surprised he managed to win the Racing Post Trophy.
Again the time Kingsbarns clocked was not great. I rated it a Listed class performance but have bumped it up to around Group 3 class by factoring in the slightly faster time he clocked over the final three furlongs.
Kingsbarns was always going well, stretched clear two furlongs out and was ridden out all the way to the line as the runner up started to reel him in through the final furlong. I guess he could have run a little quicker and yes he should improve over longer distances. But I don't see anything in this run that justifies him being made favourite for the Derby.
Runner up VAN DER DEER (34) had won on soft ground at Leicester but that was against just three rivals in a much weaker race. He's a good moving horse so I wasn't surprised his jockey said he wasn't getting through the going very well. No doubt he'll prove better than this next year on faster ground. He looks like a miler.
Third placed STEELER (34) ran a bit below his best. His connections blamed the fact that he was taken on for the lead by Trading Leather. But sectional times suggest he wasn't made to go too fast. I suspect he didn't like the soft ground.
Fifth placed TRADING LEATHER (29) was much the best horse in the race on my ratings. However trainer Jim Bolger had warned several times that he wanted good ground and wouldn't run him if it turned out too soft. I don't blame him for running Trading Leather as I thought the ground would ride a good deal faster than the official soft ground. In fact it only rode a little faster and was still yielding by my estimates. In the circumstances I think we can forgive this run. I still see him as a strong candidate for the Derby.
FOR NON STOP SHOULD GO FOR THE KING GEORGE
FOR NON STOP (40) won the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in good time. But I wouldn't get
carried away with his winning margin of 23 lengths. This was produced by Mad Max and Stagecoach Pearl taking the field along at a terrific pace that eventually told on everything bar the winner.
For None Stop worked his way through from the back to lead and was asked to kick clear between the last two. He did so very rapidly as his rivals tired.
The clock says this was a solid Grade 2 effort. But don't forget his trainer Nick Williams said after his last big win "each race takes a bit out of him so we’ll see how he takes this race.”
This does seem to be true. For Non Stop has yet to win a race when his previous outing was less than 48 days before. His record off breaks of 48 days plus though is exceptional. If you toss out his hurdles debut (which most horses lose) he's won all four times he's completed the course off a break of 48 days or more. One of the two races where he fell was the Coral Cup when he was on his way to finishing second. The other was a novice chase where he looked set to win easily when tipping up.
For Non Stop doesn't quite look good enough to win a Grade 1 chase yet. But the way he finished in this exceptionally strongly run two and a half mile race says to me that he's got a real chance of improving when stepped up to three miles. In fact, if he were mine I'd be strongly inclined to put him away to keep him fresh and bring him back over Christmas for a shot at the King George.
RASMEYAA A GROUP 1 FILLY
RASMEYAA (38) showed a serious turn of foot to run away with a maiden 2yo race over 7f at Leopardstown. Despite the genuinely soft ground she picked up amazingly well to clock just 23.94 seconds for the final quarter mile. The next fastest final two furlongs on the card was achieved by the top class Famous Name. He clocked 24.60 seconds, and that was off a very slow early pace. In the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes they took 25.60 seconds to reach the line from the two furlong marker.
When I adjust my speed rating to reflect her fantastic final two furlong sprint I come up with a figure that suggests Rasmeyaa is bang there with Certify, the top UK juvenile filly.
I'm sure trainer Dermot Weld is right to say that Rasmeyaa is going to prove best on a faster surface. Horses with acceleration like hers invariably are.
Go Native was just swinging on the bridle from a long way out. He was going so well jockey Nina Carberry was able to keep him to the outside to guarantee a clear run in the big field. When she asked him to go a furlong out the response was immediate. He spurted clear to open up a big advantage rapidly to win full of running.
I just wish the bookies were betting ante-post on the Irish 1000 Guineas. I'd bite their arm off to get 10-1 about Rasmeyaa. It's many years since Dermot Weld has run a horse in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, so tempting as the 25-1 about Rasmeyaa is for that race, I wouldn't want to bet on her being supplemented for it unless Weld makes a clear commitment to the idea.
GO NATIVE IS BACK
GO NATIVE (36) was awfully impressive when sprinting away with a 14 furlong flat race at Galway. When I compare his time with that of the fastest hurdle on the card from the same point (deducting 0.7 seconds for each hurdle) I come up with a Listed class speed rating for his effort. But I'm sure he could have gone a good deal faster if he'd been asked.
One impressive aspect of Go Native's performance was that the race was run on soft ground. Previously he's shown his best on a yielding or faster surface.
I've little doubt that Go Native is back to his best and will soon be winning more Grade 1 hurdles.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
MY TENT OR YOURS AND TAQUIN DU SEUIL TOP CLASS NOVICES
It's hard to know just how good very lightly raced horses are. So once or twice a season the connections of two such horses fail to avoid each other. The result is that we see two genuinely top class horses contest a minor race.
My ratings say this happened in a class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot last Saturday where two horses duelled from a long way to pull clear of the field.
The winner was MY TENT OR YOURS (39) who was always cruising while racing a little keenly in the rear. He began to make ground in impressive fashion after four out and looked set to coast by runner up Taquin Du Seuil as he moved up to him approaching the last. But the Taquin Du Seuil is clearly a smart horse in his own right and rallied as the winner headed him.
A measure of just how much the first two accelerated to take each other on can be gleaned from sectional times. These show that the field got from the first jump to four out 5.1 seconds later than they did in the big handicap hurdle earlier on the same card over the same trip. From there they covered the remaining six furlongs 3.2 seconds faster. When I adjust my ratings to reflect this it points to a Grade 1 class performance by the first two across the line.
My Tent Or Yours is a barrel-chested sort that has the build of a two and a half mile steeplechaser. He's a good actioned horse and has been steered away from soft ground except for his debut where he hosed up on good to soft in a Bumper. My bet is that long term he will prove best over two and a half miles and may dislike soft and heavy going. But I'd be more sure of the former idea than the latter.
The acceleration that My Tent Or Yours showed to gain ground quickly and easy just as the pace was quickening suggests to me that he'd be an interesting candidate for a valuable long distance flat race next Summer. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a remarkable record with jumpers he targets such races with.
At some point the connections of My Tent Or Yours are going to have to decide whether to keep him over two miles as a novice hurdler or step him up to two and a half miles. He has such pace it will be very tempting to persevere over two miles. But I have a maxim that a horse will perform best at the outermost limits of its stamina. At shorter trips it can get outpaced. Over longer it's in danger of not lasting home in a truly run race. For this reason I think My Tent Or Yours should try and emulate his stablemate Simonsig who won the big two and a half mile hurdles at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last year. Next season, when he will surely be switched to chasing, his obvious target would be the Jewson.
Runner up TAQUIN DU SEUIL (39) is a different sort of horse. First of all he shows knee action, so I'd bet on him proving best with cut in the ground. Secondly he looks built for at least two and a half miles.
In the early stages Taquin Du Seuil was having trouble getting his eye in at the jumps. He hesitated over two hurdles and over jumped another two. One settled down he raced in second place, kicked on entering the straight and then staged a big rally when the winner went by after the last.
Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough for chasing and is the first foal of a dam that won over fixed brush hurdles in France. He showed smart form in long distance Tierce/Premier handicaps in France over two miles, finishing second to Listed winner Inside Man and third to Group 1 performer Tac De Boistron.
Race times suggest the going was good to firm at Ascot, so it's clear Taquin Du Seuil can handle such a surface. The race also made it clear that he's very effective over two miles, even when the runners accelerate sharply in the closing stages on fast ground. However his physique says so clearly he wants longer distances and softer ground that I have to believe that will prove to be the case.
Long term Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough to jump a fence. Meanwhile the Challow Hurdle at Newbury next month looks an obvious target.
Further back in the field we had a very interesting runner in the French raider WETAK (28).
Recently there has been a big increase in the number of British horses running on the flat and over jumps in France in an effort to boost the earning of their owners and trainers through the much higher prize money available across the channel. It's unusual to see the traffic going the other way. Yet here we had Wetak running in a race worth only a third as much as his latest win in September and a tenth as much as the one he contested on his last outing.
Wetak has won all three times he's run over distances short of 2m 5f over fences in France, though he got disqualified for bringing one of his rivals down on the flat around halfway in one of them. He's also run second to the smart pair Badoudal (a Grade 1 second ) and Ozamo (12 length Listed winner) in longer chases. He's yet to score in ten hurdles starts and one on the flat. Though I have to add he has the build to do well over the smaller jumps and has run a close second to a dual Listed winner over fixed brush hurdles
As is often the case with horses switching from chases to hurdles Wetak gave the jumps plenty of daylight. He made the running till headed by Taquin Du Seuil entering the straight, weakened quite rapidly but still ran a fair race. If he runs again in Britain, over fences or hurdles, especially in a handicap where he would get in off a low weight I'll be very interested in Wetak's chances. I should say though that it generally takes two runs for a chaser to adapt back to hurdles, so I'd like to see him go back to the bigger jumps or have another try over timber before risking my money on him.
SILVINIACO CONTI PROBABLY BEST MARCH TO NOVEMBER
SILVINIACO CONTI (42) confirmed that he's now the top three mile chaser in Paul Nicholls' yard with an impressive win in the Charlie Hall Chase. He was always going well and cleared away with some ease in the closing stages. He clocked a time fast enough to give him a real shot in the Gold Cup, and it looked like he could have run a bit quicker if pressed.
Most of the top chasers have an obvious set of preferences. And it does seem clear from Silviniaco Conti's form that he's not at his best in the darkest, coldest months. So far he has won eight times out of nine from March to November with his only loss being in a slow run race with a sprint finish - something he's shown he can't cope with a few times. He's lost all five times he's run from December to February.
ROBERTO GOLDBACK PROBABLY BEST OFF BREAK
ROBERTO GOLDBACK (41) kept going remarkably strongly to win the G3 United House Gold Cup at Ascot by nine lengths. The race was notable for the way a searching gallop was maintained throughout. The field completed the last two miles of the three mile race 0.3 of a second faster than they did in the Listed chase over seven furlongs shorter.
The stamina Roberto Goldback showed to be running strongly at the end of such a tremendous gallop suggests his owner's ambitions of winning the Grand National are not entirely misplaced.
Previously I had thought that Roberto Gold Back was best in small fields over fences. But his win in this fourteen runner race does rather blow that theory out of the water. Though I should add he was kept clear of the other runners by his jockey. And perhaps the easier jumps found at most British tracks, including Ascot, make it possible to win in bigger fields than back in Ireland.
Most likely though I need to come up with a new theory to explain Roberto Goldback's form. The best I can come up with at this stage is to say that his four chase wins have all come off breaks of at least five weeks since his last completed start. I'm not sure we'll see this theory tested much any time soon as I imagine Roberto Goldback will be lightly raced in the run up to the National.
CRACK AWAY JACK STILL A SMART HURDLER
The strong pace and yielding ground were just what TIDAL BAY (41) wanted in the Grade 2 John Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby. They enabled him to do his usual thing of storming through late from far back to run down Crack Away Jack and clock a fast time.
But for bumping into a pair of smart rivals and running second Tidal Bay would have won the last five times he's run on what race times indicate was yielding or softer ground. He remains a tough horse to beat over three miles plus in both hurdles and chases. And the longer the distance and softer the ground the better.
Runner up CRACK AWAY JACK (40) moved well throughout and looked set to win when kicking clear two out. But, with Tidal Bay staying on stoutly, a mistake at the last was not helpful and he ended up getting caught and finishing rather tired.
It's tempting to come up with complex explanations for Crack Away Jack's in and out form. But my brand of razor is Occam's so I think it's best to say he's simply better over hurdles. After all in his last eight hurdles starts he's won three, finished second to three smart rivals and run fourth in the Champion Hurdle.
FIRST LIEUTENANT AND REALT DUBH SHOULD WIN BIG RACES SOON
At the beginning of every jumps season I marvel at the sheer number of high class horses that are in training. On the flat, outside of Japan, the top flat racers get retired and bundled off to stud when they've had a dozen or fewer outings. But over jumps the top horses are geldings that cannot go to stud. So they are often around for six or seven seasons.
This season we look to be in for a real treat insofar as the bigger jumps are concerned because there are a whole slew of new young stars that seem set to dominate the big three mile chases for years to come. Several of them met in a vintage renewal of the JNWine Champion Chase at Down Royal.
The pace was good from the start but it slowly picked up till the field were going just a little bit too fast to sustain the gallop from around halfway until the second last. They would have kept going till the last if the race had been over the advertised distance of three miles. In fact a comparison of the sectional times with the other two chases show it was about a furlong longer than that.
It was FIRST LIEUTENANT (41) that set the gallop and he jumped from fence to fence, putting in an exhibition round until things started got get very crowded approaching the second last. Both he and Realt Dubh were committed to go for a very narrow gap at the outermost wing of the fence. The pair were in the air together over the fence but Realt Dubh was just a bit behind and he couldn't avoid nudging First Lieutenant's back end which turned the leader sharply across him causing Realt Dubh to be turned sideways on landing and lose a lot of momentum. This effectively put Realt Dubh out of the race and it didn't exactly help First Lieutenant. He couldn't quite contain the late rush of Kauto Stone and went under by a length.
It's impossible to say what would have happened but for the incident. However it's clear that trainer Mouse Morris was right to say First Lieutenant would be a better horse this season as he was immature last term. This run established him as a serious candidate for the Gold Cup.
It's clear from the way First Lieutenant was able to rally so strongly after setting a searching gallop that he has plenty of stamina. He may not have the brilliance of Sir Des Champs or the raw talent of Last Instalment, two other Gold Cup candidates in the same ownership. But if the big race turns into a real slog due to soft ground or a searching gallop I can readily see him staying on to pass everything up Cheltenham's steep uphill finish. He'd have a fine chance in the Lexus and the Hennessy too.
The winner KAUTO STONE (41) was always going strongly. In fact he was pulling for quite some way in the early stages. However he kept moving well and showed good pace to pick up First Lieutenant just after he got into trouble two out and then hold that one’s late rally.
Despite being a half brother to the all time great chaser Kauto Star and a full brother Kauto Relko, another steeplechaser, Kauto Stone has the build of a flat racer. He's strengthened up according to trainer Paul Nicholls but is hardly a robust horse. This leads to concerns over whether he'll be able to fight for position effectively in the big field if he takes up his entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup next month.
It does seem that Kauto Stone is not at his best in the colder, darker months. This is quite a common trait in jumpers.
So far Kauto Stone has won eight of the twelve times he's run between the second week of May and the first week of November. Outside of this period he's blanked in ten tries, running well below his best on several occasions.
I can recall many years ago that Fred Winter trained a horse like Kauto Stone called Hazy Sunset. Hazy Sunset was sluggish and put on weight easily in the depths of Winter and didn't hit form again till the Spring. But then Winter decided to try to turn things around by putting a lot more work into Hazy Sunset at home. This did the trick to the point that in his final season Hazy Sunset was able to win at Christmas. Nicholls is a smart trainer. Perhaps he can pull off a similar trick with Kauto Stone. And he may well be right to say Kauto Stone simply needs to be fresh. That makes sense for what must be the smallest, lightest-framed Grade 1 three mile chaser since Dockland Express.
When he won the big two and a half mile chase on the same card last year I noted that sectional times suggested Kauto Star was finishing so strongly three miles would not be a problem for him. In fact he has now run two and three quarter miles or more twice and won Grade 1's both times. He's also won both times he's come into a race off a long break for Paul Nicholls.
REALT DUBH (37) and moved up going ominously well until getting stopped in his tracks by the collision with First Lieutenant two out.
If he hadn't bumped into the smart Jessies Dream when second in the Grade 1 Drinmore and tipped up when looking set to win another race, Realt Dubh would have won the last seven times he'd run 2m 1f or more over fences prior to this run (I'm including his point to point win.)
I'll concede that Realt Dubh may only just get three miles. But he does look a very interesting candidate for future big chases over this distance, especially those around tight tracks like the King George and Betfred Bowl.
JONCOL (36) proved once more that he doesn't get three miles in a strongly run race. He was under strong pressure from before four out. It was praiseworthy how he managed to keep tabs on the leaders for such a long way after that. As I noted after his last run Joncol has won five of the six times he's run two and a half to two and three quarter miles and finished a smart second to the high class Rubi Light in the John Durkan Memorial in his only loss. He remains a top candidate for that race next time out.
CRISTAL BONUS BEST FRESH AND AWAY FROM CHELTENHAM
CRISTAL BONUS (38) didn't have to produce his best form to sprint way from his rivals in the Grade 2 Ladbroke Chase at Down Royal.
Like a lot of horses with breathing problems Cristal Bonus seems best fresh and also not suited by Cheltenham (due to the steep uphill finish). But away from Cheltenham he's won four of the five times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more since his three year old days.
The way that Cristal Bonus finished out his race off a strong pace tells me that he might well get three miles around an easy course. So I'll be interested in his chances if he lines up for the King George since he's run fast enough to have a shot there on my ratings. More realistically though he should be kept to two and a half miles because the experienced two and a half mile chasers were a truly awful bunch last year. He should be able to win a Grade 1 if kept to trips short of three miles for races like the Ascot and Melling Chases.
WISE DAN AND ANIMAL KINGDOM CAN WIN IN DUBAI
WISE DAN (44) broke the course record and ran much faster than any of the other Breeders' Cup winners on turf last week. In fact he was just 0.37 of a second off the world record for a mile. His performance merits a speed rating that rates him as good as any horse in training anywhere on the planet that I'm aware of.
It was clearly Wise Dan's stamina off a strong pace that enabled him to keep up the gallop and power clear in the closing stages while all his rivals bar a top class runner up were flagging.
The long stride that Wise Dan showed is another indication of likely stamina, as is his record. Prior to this run two of his three best efforts had been over nine furlongs (the longest trip he's tried). The other came over a mile the only time he encountered yielding ground on turf.
Wise Dan's connections are interested in the idea of running him at the Dubai World Cup meeting but haven't yet chosen between the Dubai Duty Free and Dubai World Cup. The logical choice is the Dubai Duty Free. They can experiment later to see if he gets ten furlongs.
Runner up ANIMAL KINGDOM (43) had only one of his eight rivals behind him turning in and had trouble finding a run before finishing fast when getting in the clear late. He is even more strongly committed to the Dubai Carnival than Wise Dan. And, seeing that he won the Kentucky Derby, the ten furlong Dubai World Cup looks the right choice for him. He's hosed up both times he's run 9f on Polytrack, won the Derby on dirt and produced this huge run on turf - so Meydan's Tapeta surface should present no problem.
The gentle cushion of Tapeta is a big plus for Animal Kingdom as he has a history of leg problems. Running him on Meydan's turf course, which many trainers complained was too firm last year, is surely not the right way to go. As long as Wise Dan goes for the Duty Free Animal Kingdom will start a warm favourite for the Dubai World Cup and should be tough to beat.
GEORGE VANCOUVER NOW THE ONE TO BEAT IN 2000 GUINEAS
GEORGE VANCOUVER (34) ran a time exactly two seconds slower than Wise Dan when taking the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But almost all the difference in time was produced in the fifth and sixth furlongs. They went only 0.31 seconds slower to halfway and just 0.55 seconds slower over the last two furlongs than in the Breeders Cup Mile. I'm rather sure he'd have matched or even surpassed the slightly bigger ratings I've given him in Europe if the race had been run over here - or if the pace hadn’t dipped so dramatically mid race.
The turn of foot George Vancouver to pick up the leaders and then kick clear in the closing stages was most impressive.
This run confirmed my impression of George Vancouver's Dewhurst run that he is not at his best on yielding or soft ground. Indeed he's been most unlucky to have been running in a year when it's been so wet in Europe. So far he's only run three times on ground where the words 'soft' or 'yielding' have not appeared in the official going description. He won on two of those three occasions and was a strong finishing three quarters of a length second in fast time in a fast Group 1 over an inadequate six furlongs in his sole loss.
I've noted before that the stats say there's a big chance Dawn Approach won't train on. With almost all the other fancied runners for the 2000 Guineas looking to be running over too short or too long a distance I see George Vancouver as the one they all have to beat. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about his chances for the first Classic of 2013 look way too big.
It's hard to know just how good very lightly raced horses are. So once or twice a season the connections of two such horses fail to avoid each other. The result is that we see two genuinely top class horses contest a minor race.
My ratings say this happened in a class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot last Saturday where two horses duelled from a long way to pull clear of the field.
The winner was MY TENT OR YOURS (39) who was always cruising while racing a little keenly in the rear. He began to make ground in impressive fashion after four out and looked set to coast by runner up Taquin Du Seuil as he moved up to him approaching the last. But the Taquin Du Seuil is clearly a smart horse in his own right and rallied as the winner headed him.
A measure of just how much the first two accelerated to take each other on can be gleaned from sectional times. These show that the field got from the first jump to four out 5.1 seconds later than they did in the big handicap hurdle earlier on the same card over the same trip. From there they covered the remaining six furlongs 3.2 seconds faster. When I adjust my ratings to reflect this it points to a Grade 1 class performance by the first two across the line.
My Tent Or Yours is a barrel-chested sort that has the build of a two and a half mile steeplechaser. He's a good actioned horse and has been steered away from soft ground except for his debut where he hosed up on good to soft in a Bumper. My bet is that long term he will prove best over two and a half miles and may dislike soft and heavy going. But I'd be more sure of the former idea than the latter.
The acceleration that My Tent Or Yours showed to gain ground quickly and easy just as the pace was quickening suggests to me that he'd be an interesting candidate for a valuable long distance flat race next Summer. Trainer Nicky Henderson has a remarkable record with jumpers he targets such races with.
At some point the connections of My Tent Or Yours are going to have to decide whether to keep him over two miles as a novice hurdler or step him up to two and a half miles. He has such pace it will be very tempting to persevere over two miles. But I have a maxim that a horse will perform best at the outermost limits of its stamina. At shorter trips it can get outpaced. Over longer it's in danger of not lasting home in a truly run race. For this reason I think My Tent Or Yours should try and emulate his stablemate Simonsig who won the big two and a half mile hurdles at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last year. Next season, when he will surely be switched to chasing, his obvious target would be the Jewson.
Runner up TAQUIN DU SEUIL (39) is a different sort of horse. First of all he shows knee action, so I'd bet on him proving best with cut in the ground. Secondly he looks built for at least two and a half miles.
In the early stages Taquin Du Seuil was having trouble getting his eye in at the jumps. He hesitated over two hurdles and over jumped another two. One settled down he raced in second place, kicked on entering the straight and then staged a big rally when the winner went by after the last.
Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough for chasing and is the first foal of a dam that won over fixed brush hurdles in France. He showed smart form in long distance Tierce/Premier handicaps in France over two miles, finishing second to Listed winner Inside Man and third to Group 1 performer Tac De Boistron.
Race times suggest the going was good to firm at Ascot, so it's clear Taquin Du Seuil can handle such a surface. The race also made it clear that he's very effective over two miles, even when the runners accelerate sharply in the closing stages on fast ground. However his physique says so clearly he wants longer distances and softer ground that I have to believe that will prove to be the case.
Long term Taquin Du Seuil is tall enough to jump a fence. Meanwhile the Challow Hurdle at Newbury next month looks an obvious target.
Further back in the field we had a very interesting runner in the French raider WETAK (28).
Recently there has been a big increase in the number of British horses running on the flat and over jumps in France in an effort to boost the earning of their owners and trainers through the much higher prize money available across the channel. It's unusual to see the traffic going the other way. Yet here we had Wetak running in a race worth only a third as much as his latest win in September and a tenth as much as the one he contested on his last outing.
Wetak has won all three times he's run over distances short of 2m 5f over fences in France, though he got disqualified for bringing one of his rivals down on the flat around halfway in one of them. He's also run second to the smart pair Badoudal (a Grade 1 second ) and Ozamo (12 length Listed winner) in longer chases. He's yet to score in ten hurdles starts and one on the flat. Though I have to add he has the build to do well over the smaller jumps and has run a close second to a dual Listed winner over fixed brush hurdles
As is often the case with horses switching from chases to hurdles Wetak gave the jumps plenty of daylight. He made the running till headed by Taquin Du Seuil entering the straight, weakened quite rapidly but still ran a fair race. If he runs again in Britain, over fences or hurdles, especially in a handicap where he would get in off a low weight I'll be very interested in Wetak's chances. I should say though that it generally takes two runs for a chaser to adapt back to hurdles, so I'd like to see him go back to the bigger jumps or have another try over timber before risking my money on him.
SILVINIACO CONTI PROBABLY BEST MARCH TO NOVEMBER
SILVINIACO CONTI (42) confirmed that he's now the top three mile chaser in Paul Nicholls' yard with an impressive win in the Charlie Hall Chase. He was always going well and cleared away with some ease in the closing stages. He clocked a time fast enough to give him a real shot in the Gold Cup, and it looked like he could have run a bit quicker if pressed.
Most of the top chasers have an obvious set of preferences. And it does seem clear from Silviniaco Conti's form that he's not at his best in the darkest, coldest months. So far he has won eight times out of nine from March to November with his only loss being in a slow run race with a sprint finish - something he's shown he can't cope with a few times. He's lost all five times he's run from December to February.
ROBERTO GOLDBACK PROBABLY BEST OFF BREAK
ROBERTO GOLDBACK (41) kept going remarkably strongly to win the G3 United House Gold Cup at Ascot by nine lengths. The race was notable for the way a searching gallop was maintained throughout. The field completed the last two miles of the three mile race 0.3 of a second faster than they did in the Listed chase over seven furlongs shorter.
The stamina Roberto Goldback showed to be running strongly at the end of such a tremendous gallop suggests his owner's ambitions of winning the Grand National are not entirely misplaced.
Previously I had thought that Roberto Gold Back was best in small fields over fences. But his win in this fourteen runner race does rather blow that theory out of the water. Though I should add he was kept clear of the other runners by his jockey. And perhaps the easier jumps found at most British tracks, including Ascot, make it possible to win in bigger fields than back in Ireland.
Most likely though I need to come up with a new theory to explain Roberto Goldback's form. The best I can come up with at this stage is to say that his four chase wins have all come off breaks of at least five weeks since his last completed start. I'm not sure we'll see this theory tested much any time soon as I imagine Roberto Goldback will be lightly raced in the run up to the National.
CRACK AWAY JACK STILL A SMART HURDLER
The strong pace and yielding ground were just what TIDAL BAY (41) wanted in the Grade 2 John Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby. They enabled him to do his usual thing of storming through late from far back to run down Crack Away Jack and clock a fast time.
But for bumping into a pair of smart rivals and running second Tidal Bay would have won the last five times he's run on what race times indicate was yielding or softer ground. He remains a tough horse to beat over three miles plus in both hurdles and chases. And the longer the distance and softer the ground the better.
Runner up CRACK AWAY JACK (40) moved well throughout and looked set to win when kicking clear two out. But, with Tidal Bay staying on stoutly, a mistake at the last was not helpful and he ended up getting caught and finishing rather tired.
It's tempting to come up with complex explanations for Crack Away Jack's in and out form. But my brand of razor is Occam's so I think it's best to say he's simply better over hurdles. After all in his last eight hurdles starts he's won three, finished second to three smart rivals and run fourth in the Champion Hurdle.
FIRST LIEUTENANT AND REALT DUBH SHOULD WIN BIG RACES SOON
At the beginning of every jumps season I marvel at the sheer number of high class horses that are in training. On the flat, outside of Japan, the top flat racers get retired and bundled off to stud when they've had a dozen or fewer outings. But over jumps the top horses are geldings that cannot go to stud. So they are often around for six or seven seasons.
This season we look to be in for a real treat insofar as the bigger jumps are concerned because there are a whole slew of new young stars that seem set to dominate the big three mile chases for years to come. Several of them met in a vintage renewal of the JNWine Champion Chase at Down Royal.
The pace was good from the start but it slowly picked up till the field were going just a little bit too fast to sustain the gallop from around halfway until the second last. They would have kept going till the last if the race had been over the advertised distance of three miles. In fact a comparison of the sectional times with the other two chases show it was about a furlong longer than that.
It was FIRST LIEUTENANT (41) that set the gallop and he jumped from fence to fence, putting in an exhibition round until things started got get very crowded approaching the second last. Both he and Realt Dubh were committed to go for a very narrow gap at the outermost wing of the fence. The pair were in the air together over the fence but Realt Dubh was just a bit behind and he couldn't avoid nudging First Lieutenant's back end which turned the leader sharply across him causing Realt Dubh to be turned sideways on landing and lose a lot of momentum. This effectively put Realt Dubh out of the race and it didn't exactly help First Lieutenant. He couldn't quite contain the late rush of Kauto Stone and went under by a length.
It's impossible to say what would have happened but for the incident. However it's clear that trainer Mouse Morris was right to say First Lieutenant would be a better horse this season as he was immature last term. This run established him as a serious candidate for the Gold Cup.
It's clear from the way First Lieutenant was able to rally so strongly after setting a searching gallop that he has plenty of stamina. He may not have the brilliance of Sir Des Champs or the raw talent of Last Instalment, two other Gold Cup candidates in the same ownership. But if the big race turns into a real slog due to soft ground or a searching gallop I can readily see him staying on to pass everything up Cheltenham's steep uphill finish. He'd have a fine chance in the Lexus and the Hennessy too.
The winner KAUTO STONE (41) was always going strongly. In fact he was pulling for quite some way in the early stages. However he kept moving well and showed good pace to pick up First Lieutenant just after he got into trouble two out and then hold that one’s late rally.
Despite being a half brother to the all time great chaser Kauto Star and a full brother Kauto Relko, another steeplechaser, Kauto Stone has the build of a flat racer. He's strengthened up according to trainer Paul Nicholls but is hardly a robust horse. This leads to concerns over whether he'll be able to fight for position effectively in the big field if he takes up his entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup next month.
It does seem that Kauto Stone is not at his best in the colder, darker months. This is quite a common trait in jumpers.
So far Kauto Stone has won eight of the twelve times he's run between the second week of May and the first week of November. Outside of this period he's blanked in ten tries, running well below his best on several occasions.
I can recall many years ago that Fred Winter trained a horse like Kauto Stone called Hazy Sunset. Hazy Sunset was sluggish and put on weight easily in the depths of Winter and didn't hit form again till the Spring. But then Winter decided to try to turn things around by putting a lot more work into Hazy Sunset at home. This did the trick to the point that in his final season Hazy Sunset was able to win at Christmas. Nicholls is a smart trainer. Perhaps he can pull off a similar trick with Kauto Stone. And he may well be right to say Kauto Stone simply needs to be fresh. That makes sense for what must be the smallest, lightest-framed Grade 1 three mile chaser since Dockland Express.
When he won the big two and a half mile chase on the same card last year I noted that sectional times suggested Kauto Star was finishing so strongly three miles would not be a problem for him. In fact he has now run two and three quarter miles or more twice and won Grade 1's both times. He's also won both times he's come into a race off a long break for Paul Nicholls.
REALT DUBH (37) and moved up going ominously well until getting stopped in his tracks by the collision with First Lieutenant two out.
If he hadn't bumped into the smart Jessies Dream when second in the Grade 1 Drinmore and tipped up when looking set to win another race, Realt Dubh would have won the last seven times he'd run 2m 1f or more over fences prior to this run (I'm including his point to point win.)
I'll concede that Realt Dubh may only just get three miles. But he does look a very interesting candidate for future big chases over this distance, especially those around tight tracks like the King George and Betfred Bowl.
JONCOL (36) proved once more that he doesn't get three miles in a strongly run race. He was under strong pressure from before four out. It was praiseworthy how he managed to keep tabs on the leaders for such a long way after that. As I noted after his last run Joncol has won five of the six times he's run two and a half to two and three quarter miles and finished a smart second to the high class Rubi Light in the John Durkan Memorial in his only loss. He remains a top candidate for that race next time out.
CRISTAL BONUS BEST FRESH AND AWAY FROM CHELTENHAM
CRISTAL BONUS (38) didn't have to produce his best form to sprint way from his rivals in the Grade 2 Ladbroke Chase at Down Royal.
Like a lot of horses with breathing problems Cristal Bonus seems best fresh and also not suited by Cheltenham (due to the steep uphill finish). But away from Cheltenham he's won four of the five times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more since his three year old days.
The way that Cristal Bonus finished out his race off a strong pace tells me that he might well get three miles around an easy course. So I'll be interested in his chances if he lines up for the King George since he's run fast enough to have a shot there on my ratings. More realistically though he should be kept to two and a half miles because the experienced two and a half mile chasers were a truly awful bunch last year. He should be able to win a Grade 1 if kept to trips short of three miles for races like the Ascot and Melling Chases.
WISE DAN AND ANIMAL KINGDOM CAN WIN IN DUBAI
WISE DAN (44) broke the course record and ran much faster than any of the other Breeders' Cup winners on turf last week. In fact he was just 0.37 of a second off the world record for a mile. His performance merits a speed rating that rates him as good as any horse in training anywhere on the planet that I'm aware of.
It was clearly Wise Dan's stamina off a strong pace that enabled him to keep up the gallop and power clear in the closing stages while all his rivals bar a top class runner up were flagging.
The long stride that Wise Dan showed is another indication of likely stamina, as is his record. Prior to this run two of his three best efforts had been over nine furlongs (the longest trip he's tried). The other came over a mile the only time he encountered yielding ground on turf.
Wise Dan's connections are interested in the idea of running him at the Dubai World Cup meeting but haven't yet chosen between the Dubai Duty Free and Dubai World Cup. The logical choice is the Dubai Duty Free. They can experiment later to see if he gets ten furlongs.
Runner up ANIMAL KINGDOM (43) had only one of his eight rivals behind him turning in and had trouble finding a run before finishing fast when getting in the clear late. He is even more strongly committed to the Dubai Carnival than Wise Dan. And, seeing that he won the Kentucky Derby, the ten furlong Dubai World Cup looks the right choice for him. He's hosed up both times he's run 9f on Polytrack, won the Derby on dirt and produced this huge run on turf - so Meydan's Tapeta surface should present no problem.
The gentle cushion of Tapeta is a big plus for Animal Kingdom as he has a history of leg problems. Running him on Meydan's turf course, which many trainers complained was too firm last year, is surely not the right way to go. As long as Wise Dan goes for the Duty Free Animal Kingdom will start a warm favourite for the Dubai World Cup and should be tough to beat.
GEORGE VANCOUVER NOW THE ONE TO BEAT IN 2000 GUINEAS
GEORGE VANCOUVER (34) ran a time exactly two seconds slower than Wise Dan when taking the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But almost all the difference in time was produced in the fifth and sixth furlongs. They went only 0.31 seconds slower to halfway and just 0.55 seconds slower over the last two furlongs than in the Breeders Cup Mile. I'm rather sure he'd have matched or even surpassed the slightly bigger ratings I've given him in Europe if the race had been run over here - or if the pace hadn’t dipped so dramatically mid race.
The turn of foot George Vancouver to pick up the leaders and then kick clear in the closing stages was most impressive.
This run confirmed my impression of George Vancouver's Dewhurst run that he is not at his best on yielding or soft ground. Indeed he's been most unlucky to have been running in a year when it's been so wet in Europe. So far he's only run three times on ground where the words 'soft' or 'yielding' have not appeared in the official going description. He won on two of those three occasions and was a strong finishing three quarters of a length second in fast time in a fast Group 1 over an inadequate six furlongs in his sole loss.
I've noted before that the stats say there's a big chance Dawn Approach won't train on. With almost all the other fancied runners for the 2000 Guineas looking to be running over too short or too long a distance I see George Vancouver as the one they all have to beat. The 25-1 the bookies are offering about his chances for the first Classic of 2013 look way too big.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
CUE CARD LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT IN KING GEORGE
CUE CARD (45) put up an awesome performance to take the Haldon Gold Cup.
The novice chase over the same distance was notable for a tremendous early gallop. But Cue Card went just as fast and kept up the gallop all the way to the line. You can see this from a comparison of the sectional times for the two races. These show the leader's time from the first fence to the subsequent jumps and then to the finish:
Theatre...Cue Card
Guide
32.93.........31.53
42.53.........41.26
53.19.........52.39
120.99......121.46
133.66......133.39
144.66.......143.73
153.79.......152.59
209.73.......205.26
217.33.......212.26
226.06.......220.46
238.73.......233.59
251.06.......246.86
As you can see Cue Card was a little behind the novices at the fifth fence but then poured it on to steadily increase his margin over them to 4.2 seconds by the finish.
There's no question that Theatre Guide is a very decent novice. But even if I rate him as slightly slower than Listed class it means I have to award Cue Card a rating of 45. That's bang there with the best chasers of recent years and enough to win any King George that Kauto Star hasn't been in.
The most encouraging thing about Cue Card's performance was the way he sustained a searching gallop over nearly two and a quarter miles on a testing track. You will recall how strongly he was staying on at the finish of the Arkle as well.
It seems to me that Cue Card has just demonstrated once more that he's crying out for a longer distance and should have no trouble lasting the three miles at Kempton. His pedigree points the same way. Eight of the other top twelve steeplechasers by his sire (as measured by Racing Post ratings) won or showed form within two pounds of their best over three miles plus. And his dam stayed well enough to win four hurdles over three miles and be a fancied outsider for the Grand National.
Cue Card fits the statistical profile of past King George winners and all the other horses that do so have question marks over them. The 10-1 you can get from the bookies about him for the big Kempton race looks awfully big to me.
MICHEL LE BON GETS INTERESTING FOR HENNESSY
The valuable Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton was a terrific contest this year. Two horses separated themselves from the other ten runners after four out by sustaining the tremendous gallop. They kept going so strongly to the finish that you had to count ten full seconds before the third horse crossed the line.
The winner was THE PACKAGE (41) who broke three lengths clear four out and kept going to hold the determined runner up as they duelled all the way up the straight, pulling further and further clear of their rivals.
The time The Package clocked was seriously good Grade 2 class. He's clearly a very smart chaser.
The Package would have won all three times he's run three miles plus on ground that's genuinely on the slow side of good or softer but for his photo finish loss at the Cheltenham Festival. He clearly stays very well and it's possible he can act on faster ground over a real marathon distance. However his below par 18.5 length loss in the Bet365 Gold Cup suggests otherwise. So I'd hold off betting him ante-post for the Grand National and only back him on the day if he gets slower ground - unless he proves his ability to cope with the normal quick surface they have for Aintree in the meantime.
Trainer David Pipe suggested after his big win that The Package may take up his entry in the Hennessy. He'd certainly be interesting there if the ground was slow enough (which does seem likely). My main concern is that the Hennessy is run only two weeks after the Badger Ales Chase and the Wincanton race must have taken a lot out of him. He kicked clear a long way out then had to be asked for everything to hold off a determined runner up. My suspicion is that The Package will take a while to recover and won't be asked to run again so soon.
You could argue that the same concern applies to the runner up MICHEL LE BON (40). However he worked his way into the race more gradually. In addition I think his lack of experience over fences prevented him from dredging the limits of his resources. He was never as organised as the winner. This showed particularly when he jumped left three out and then ploughed through the last, landing on his nose and losing momentum as the birch flew behind him.
Michel Le Bon is nine years of age, just like The Package. But he's only had nine lifetime starts as opposed to the 22 for The Package. And this was only his fourth start over fences. The more lightly raced a horse is the more likely it is to recover quickly from a big run like this.
The ground was too fast for Michel Le Bon in his two comeback starts last season according to trainer Paul Nicholls. But if he'd run a bit more professionally here or not encountered such a smart rival he would have won all four times he's run on good to soft or softer ground over hurdles or fences. My feeling is that he is likely to be winning Grade 1 chases sooner rather than later.
If I'm right then Michel Le Bon looks a tremendous bet for the Hennessy. Should his stablemate Tidal Bay take up his entry for the big Newbury race Michel Le Bon would be able get in with bottom weight of ten stone off his current mark. This being so the 16-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Hennessy is awfully tempting.
POUNGACH WILL DO BETTER OVER THREE MILES
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (37) won a good renewal of the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices Chase. But although he made the running at a decent pace it was slow enough for him to pick up quite a bit from six out. He came home from there 1.5 seconds faster than they did in the valuable Badger Ales Chase on the same card.
The increased pace had his main rival Poungach at full stretch for a long way. And I think the tactical advantage this gave Houblon Des Obeaux made him look better than he really is.
It's hard to get away from the fact that Houblon Des Obeaux has won all five times he's run in fields of ten or less below Grade 1 class but lost all thirteen times he's run in bigger fields. My speed rating and analysis suggest he is basically a Listed class horse that is best dominating fairly small fields of lower class rivals.
The runner up POUNGACH (36) looks a much more interesting prospect to me.
Poungach is a big-bodied, strong sort that's clearly built for three miles plus. He'd fallen at the first on his chasing debut and over jumped three of the first four fences here. But he then settled down and jumped better except for overjumping the water as well, the novelty of which seemed to spook him a little. However when the winner turned on the pace with six to jump he dropped back from second to be fourth by eight lengths and ridden along. It wasn't until the very late stages of the race that his stamina finally kicked in. On the run in he finished with a rush to snatch second on the line.
Clearly Poungach now needs to go up to three miles. My suspicion is that he will turn out to be better than the winner when he does. I'm not saying he'll win the Feltham but that race does look a logical target.
PROSPECT WELLS SHOULD GO FOR BETFAIR HURDLE
After a long history as the Schweppes Gold Trophy, punters finally got used to calling the event the Totesport Trophy only for the sponsor to be changed to Betfair last year. But whatever you call Newbury's most valuable hurdle PROSPECT WELLS (40) certainly looks good for it following his big run in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton.
The early pace was a crawl in the Elite Hurdle and Prospect Wells found himself in the lead despite taking 6.2 seconds longer to reach the second hurdle than they did in the ordinary novice hurdle earlier on the same card. However, after taking a long look back at this rivals and then waiting five or six seconds Ruby Walsh saw nobody else wanted to make the running so he kicked on to set a decent gallop.
Prospect Wells jumped fast and well in the lead until going slightly left at the second last and ceding a narrow edge to stablemate Zarkandar. He worked his way back into a neck lead before the last but clattered through that jump, landing on all fours and slightly sideways, again surrendering the lead to Zarkandar. He rallied once more but the run in is short at Wincanton so he wasn't able to quite get back up.
This run was right up there with Prospect Wells' best ever performances. But I suspect there are three things he did not have here that could have improved it. Namely a strong early pace, a more galloping track and left-handed turns.
When he was a flat racer in France Prospect Wells did best when coming from far back off a strong early pace to finish second in the Grand Prix de Paris. And last season, after he lost a slow run hurdle with a sprint finish trainer Paul Nicholls said "he’ll be better in a competitive field where they go flat out." That has long been my impression. Prospect Wells is a long, striding horse that I'm sure would have no trouble staying two and a half miles perhaps further. He would surely have done better at Wincanton if something else had been prepared to go on and set a decent pace from the start.
I also suspect Prospect Wells would have preferred a bigger course. After all he's won three of the four times he's run around ovals two miles or more in circumference but scored in just one of his nineteen tries around smaller tracks.
Finally the way that Prospect Wells jumped slightly left two out raises the old doubt about him on right handed courses. He's run well on courses that turn right but has yet to win on one in eleven tries.
Put all this together and it's easy to see why I think the invariably fast run Betfair Hurdle around Newbury's left-handed two mile oval will suit Prospect Wells perfectly.
The one concern I have is that the big Newbury race isn't run until February. It's hard to see how Prospect Wells can keep on racing between now and then without blowing his current very lenient handicap mark. For this reason if he were mine I'd be inclined to avoid the big conditions hurdles for now and restrict him to just one or two handicap races before February to ensure he's fresh and well handicapped for the big race.
The winner ZARKANDAR (40) won the Betfair Hurdle last year before running seriously well for a five year old to stay on strongly and take fifth in the Champion Hurdle.
The stats say it's very difficult for a horse less than six years of age to be competitive in the Champion Hurdle. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 80 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008 - and he had way more hurdling experience than most horses his age (a dozen previous starts over timber).
Logically Zarkandar should do better in this season's Champion Hurdle, as most horses do when they mature from five to six. He should certainly improve on this run as he was not fully fit according to trainer Paul Nicholls.
I don't take weight into account in my ratings. But to beat a rival as smart as Prospect Wells when giving him seventeen pounds and a fitness edge suggests Zarkandar may well be a bit better than I'm able to rate him. There are plenty of smart two mile hurdlers around but Zarkandar might just be up to winning the Champion Hurdle this time around. We'll get a better idea of his prospects after he's tackled the International Hurdle at Cheltenham next time out.
SIZING RIO HAS BIG CHANCE IN SUPREME NOVICES
SIZING RIO (40) impressed me greatly when winning the Grade 3 For Auction Novice Hurdle at Navan. He made the running at a decent pace and then accelerated without urging to have most of his rivals in trouble after three out. The really impressive part of his victory though was how he accelerated again to swamp the runner up for finishing speed when that one came up to try and challenge him on the run in.
The time that Sizing Rio clocked was Grade 1 class for a novice by my reckoning. And the way he picked up tells me he can almost certainly run faster.
I concede that Sizing Rio is built and bred for three miles over fences and has already won a point to point. However he is a very athletic sort of chaser that clearly has speed and acceleration as well as stamina.
Jockey Andrew Lynch told trainer Henry de Bromhead after the race that Sizing Rio "was a bit hard to get around the bends in front." On reviewing the video this didn't look to be of much importance. Lynch did have to pull a bit on the left hand rein rounding the second turn and the home turn. But Sizing Rio never came off a straight line and he jumped every hurdle as straight as a die.
Most inexperienced horses show steering problems of some sort which they soon work out of. And Sizing Rio was very happy to lean in towards the rail rounding the turns when Lynch showed him through the reins that this is what he wanted him to do.
De Bromhead added "He is real galloping horse and the faster they go the better he is. He is a big raw four-year-old and he is a real horse for the future and fences. We will give him a break now and probably bring him back for Leopardstown at Christmas. Hopefully there won't be a problem with him going left-handed there. He is not entered in the Royal Bond and I think he will be better on better ground."
I don't see any problem with Sizing Rio going left handed in future. So I'd expect him to win the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas at Leopardstown. I also agree with de Bromhead's remarks about the horse being likely to prefer faster ground. Most horses with a turn of foot like his do. All in all he looks to me like developing into Ireland's main hope for the Supreme Novices. So the 33-1 Boylesports are offering about him for that race is surely way too big.
Runner up TED VEALE (39) was brought with a well timed late challenge but simply couldn't go with the winner in the last hundred yards when he accelerated for the second time. He's clearly a smart hurdler. He lost his first try over timber, like most horses do. He also failed to stay 2m 5f on his previous run. But he would have been a six length winner scoring for the third time in a row here if he'd skipped that one race where he didn't stay.
Ted Veale's trainer says he's not big enough for steeplechasing, but my numbers say he's good enough to win pretty much any novice hurdle where he can avoid Sizing Rio.
I do no know why third placed CELTIC CAILIN (36) improved to run a two and three quarter length third in a mares Grade 3 last time or why she improved again here. But the way she moved up to join issue with the first two before failing to go with them when things got serious suggests that she's a threat to win a patter race restricted to her own sex soon.
FLEMENSTAR LOOKS A TWO AND A HALF MILER
A horse needs to be a decent size to clear a steeplechase fence efficiently. But, as with flat racers, the longer the distance the smaller the winners tend to be. In fact when you get to chasers as big as FLEMENSTAR (39) it's a good rule of thumb that they won't stay more than two and a half miles.
I'm old enough to remember family size two and a half mile chasers like Straight Jocelyn and The Mighty Mac. More recently Joncol is a good example of the two and a half mile giant.
With all these horses there's always a debate about whether they can stay three miles. Sometimes they manage it in a slow run race or around an easy track but they don't win Cheltenham Gold Cups.
After watching Flemenenstar win the Fortia Chase on his seasonal debut I'm pretty confident that he has little chance of lasting the Gold Cup distance. He jumped well and clocked a good time despite being in need of the outing according to his trainer. So he should have a good chance against Joncol and co in the John Durkan Memorial next time over two and a half miles. But I'll be inclined to bet against him if he steps up to three miles for the Lexus after that. I know he won a point to point over that distance, but it was nine seconds slower than the fastest race on the card and hardly proves he stays that far.
Flemenstar ran a bit faster than this as a novice and no doubt will again. It will be interesting to see how he does in the John Durkan. However he's unlikely to represent value there. I still fancy Joncol to beat him as Paul Nolan's big horse has only lost one of his six chases between 2m 4f and 2m 6f. This was when he ran five lengths second to Rubi Light in last year's John Durkan where the winner earned a bigger speed rating from me than Flemenstar has so far.
WHTUTHINK USEFUL IN SMALL FIELDS
I have long maintained that there's nowhere near as much difference in ability between high class horses as is generally supposed. The difference between winning and losing is not made by differences in ability but preferences for certain conditions.
No better evidence for this could be asked than WHATUTHINK (36).
Whatuthink has run in a wide variety of circumstances. But barring his first win in low class races in each discipline - flat, hurdle and chase, all his victories have come in single figure fields, at trips of two and a half miles or less, over hurdles or fences off breaks of a month or less on ground slower than good.. He has in fact won all five times he's run in these circumstances.
Whatuthink's latest win came at big odds in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle where the strong pace he set on heavy ground seemed to take the sting out of Voler La Vedette's usual finishing kick. The top class mare came with a run, moving well, but started to flounder as Whatuthink rallied in the closing stages.
Voler La Vedette had won on her last four seasonal debuts, so I don't think this loss can be blamed on lack of fitness. She'd scored her Grade 1 win on heavy ground too, which removes the going as an excuse.
This was Voler La Vedette's fourth loss in a row and her worst performance in two years. It could be she's deteriorated. Or maybe the tongue tie she's acquired in the last year is a sign of breathing problems. Either way I now need to see her show her old form and won't assume she's still able to show it.
SAVELLO SHOULD WIN SOON
One interesting thing about jump racing from a timing perspective is that the longer distances give much more scope for the runners to go an unsustainably fast early gallop than on the flat. This leads to what I call a 'pace collapse' where the entire field tires so badly they end up clocking a much slower final time than they otherwise would have.
The latest example of a pace collapse occurred in a two mile novice chase at Navan on Sunday. In this race SAVELLO (21) and Toon River tore off at an insanely fast pace. They reached the third fence five and a half seconds before Flemenstar did in the Fortia Chase on the same card. From there the novices steadily tired to complete the rest of the race 10.3 seconds slower than Flemenstar.
What was remarkable is that when the leaders were caught Toon River beat a rapid retreat to finish tailed off last but Savello hung in there till just before the second last and ended up running fifth. If he'd paced himself better and perhaps had a more recent outing I'm sure he'd have finished a lot closer.
For a novice chasing debutante to be able to jump at such speed and still run reasonably well is quite something. Savello may not be a world beater but he's certainly way better than he was able to show here and should win soon.
PENNY'S PICNIC THE TOP FRENCH 2YO
Earlier this season PENNY'S PICNIC (38) clocked an astonishingly fast time when winning a minor conditions race by a dozen lengths. He did it again when winning the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte.
Approaching the final furlong Irish raider Viztoria was ahead and making the best of her way home with Penny's Picnic last of the nine runners. But when Penny's Picnic was switched to the stands rail his jockey merely had to shake the whip at him to close the gap rapidly and easily to blow by everything and win by a length.
The time that Penny's Picnic clocked was a fifth of a second faster than the next quickest race on the card, the Group 3 Prix de Seine-et-Oise for older horses over the same trip of 1200 metres (six furlongs). So it's right up there with the eye-catching performance of Dawn Approach who clocked the same time as the Group 2 Challenge Stakes for older horses when winning the Dewhurst over the same course and distance.
I've mentioned before that Penny's Picnic is bred to get least seven furlongs. He is by a smart seven furlong performer and the first foal of an unraced dam that's a full sister to dual one mile Group winner Penny's Gold. This run makes me strongly inclined to believe he will get the mile in the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). Indeed his trainer says that his defeats by Reckless Abandon in the Papin and Morny were caused by him being taken off his feet by the pace set by that seriously fast sprinter on fast ground. I also have to say that, seeing how well he performed from off the pace at Maisons-Laffitte, if they'd switched to hold up tactics in the Pain and Morny he would have done far better. No doubt he'll be ridden this way from now on.
It is easy to argue that Penny's Picnic needs cut in the ground as he's won all five times he's run on good to soft or slower ground and suffered those two losses on a faster surface. However he shows no knee action and has actually twice won on ground only slightly slower than good. In addition the three wins scored by his sire and the three pattern wins by Penny's Gold were all on a fast surface. It now seems pretty clear that he's done better on a slower surface to date simply because it's made the short distances he's tackled to date more of a stamina test.
There's no question in my mind that Penny's Picnic deserves to be rated the top French two year old on this run. His trainer says he will be entered in " all the Classics" next year. This suggests he has hopes of him staying the ten and a half furlongs of the Prix du Jockey Club. His next start will be in the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs in April. If there were ante-post betting on the French 2000 Guineas right now he'd carry my money.
The horses that followed Penny's Picnic home appear to all be sprinters, so their Classic prospects don't look great. However runner up VIZTORIA (37) ran so fast and is so stoutly bred I have to concede that my belief her short-necked, close-coupled physique makes her unlikely to stay a mile could be wrong. This is the second time she's earned a Group 1 class rating from me and her trainer Edward Lynam is still aiming her at the Irish 1000 Guineas in May.
MORANDI NEEDS TO SHOW MORE
One of the biggest changes in French racing over the last two decades has been the way the top horses are now held back from racing at two years of age.
In the early nineties and earlier there were plenty of brilliant French horses that showed sensational form as juveniles. Nowadays though it is invariably only Guineas prospects that are occasionally given a serious campaign at two. The Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris candidates generally only have one run very late in the season if they run as two year olds at all.
For this reason I would urge caution in regards to the runaway win scored by MORANDI in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over ten furlongs last week. I concede this strong stocky colt sat close to a strong pace and then powered away from his rivals up the straight. However he only clocked a Group 3 class time. And the subsequent record of recent French-trained winners of this race is not encouraging.
From 1994 to last year there were ten French-trained winners of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. The only win they scored in 27 later Group 1 races was the short head success of Voix du Nord in the Prix Lupin - a rather weak Group 1 that has since been discontinued.
I concede Morandi may be able to run faster than he did at Saint-Cloud. But I'll be inclined to oppose him when he faces rivals that have been brought along more slowly next year.
CUE CARD (45) put up an awesome performance to take the Haldon Gold Cup.
The novice chase over the same distance was notable for a tremendous early gallop. But Cue Card went just as fast and kept up the gallop all the way to the line. You can see this from a comparison of the sectional times for the two races. These show the leader's time from the first fence to the subsequent jumps and then to the finish:
Theatre...Cue Card
Guide
32.93.........31.53
42.53.........41.26
53.19.........52.39
120.99......121.46
133.66......133.39
144.66.......143.73
153.79.......152.59
209.73.......205.26
217.33.......212.26
226.06.......220.46
238.73.......233.59
251.06.......246.86
As you can see Cue Card was a little behind the novices at the fifth fence but then poured it on to steadily increase his margin over them to 4.2 seconds by the finish.
There's no question that Theatre Guide is a very decent novice. But even if I rate him as slightly slower than Listed class it means I have to award Cue Card a rating of 45. That's bang there with the best chasers of recent years and enough to win any King George that Kauto Star hasn't been in.
The most encouraging thing about Cue Card's performance was the way he sustained a searching gallop over nearly two and a quarter miles on a testing track. You will recall how strongly he was staying on at the finish of the Arkle as well.
It seems to me that Cue Card has just demonstrated once more that he's crying out for a longer distance and should have no trouble lasting the three miles at Kempton. His pedigree points the same way. Eight of the other top twelve steeplechasers by his sire (as measured by Racing Post ratings) won or showed form within two pounds of their best over three miles plus. And his dam stayed well enough to win four hurdles over three miles and be a fancied outsider for the Grand National.
Cue Card fits the statistical profile of past King George winners and all the other horses that do so have question marks over them. The 10-1 you can get from the bookies about him for the big Kempton race looks awfully big to me.
MICHEL LE BON GETS INTERESTING FOR HENNESSY
The valuable Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton was a terrific contest this year. Two horses separated themselves from the other ten runners after four out by sustaining the tremendous gallop. They kept going so strongly to the finish that you had to count ten full seconds before the third horse crossed the line.
The winner was THE PACKAGE (41) who broke three lengths clear four out and kept going to hold the determined runner up as they duelled all the way up the straight, pulling further and further clear of their rivals.
The time The Package clocked was seriously good Grade 2 class. He's clearly a very smart chaser.
The Package would have won all three times he's run three miles plus on ground that's genuinely on the slow side of good or softer but for his photo finish loss at the Cheltenham Festival. He clearly stays very well and it's possible he can act on faster ground over a real marathon distance. However his below par 18.5 length loss in the Bet365 Gold Cup suggests otherwise. So I'd hold off betting him ante-post for the Grand National and only back him on the day if he gets slower ground - unless he proves his ability to cope with the normal quick surface they have for Aintree in the meantime.
Trainer David Pipe suggested after his big win that The Package may take up his entry in the Hennessy. He'd certainly be interesting there if the ground was slow enough (which does seem likely). My main concern is that the Hennessy is run only two weeks after the Badger Ales Chase and the Wincanton race must have taken a lot out of him. He kicked clear a long way out then had to be asked for everything to hold off a determined runner up. My suspicion is that The Package will take a while to recover and won't be asked to run again so soon.
You could argue that the same concern applies to the runner up MICHEL LE BON (40). However he worked his way into the race more gradually. In addition I think his lack of experience over fences prevented him from dredging the limits of his resources. He was never as organised as the winner. This showed particularly when he jumped left three out and then ploughed through the last, landing on his nose and losing momentum as the birch flew behind him.
Michel Le Bon is nine years of age, just like The Package. But he's only had nine lifetime starts as opposed to the 22 for The Package. And this was only his fourth start over fences. The more lightly raced a horse is the more likely it is to recover quickly from a big run like this.
The ground was too fast for Michel Le Bon in his two comeback starts last season according to trainer Paul Nicholls. But if he'd run a bit more professionally here or not encountered such a smart rival he would have won all four times he's run on good to soft or softer ground over hurdles or fences. My feeling is that he is likely to be winning Grade 1 chases sooner rather than later.
If I'm right then Michel Le Bon looks a tremendous bet for the Hennessy. Should his stablemate Tidal Bay take up his entry for the big Newbury race Michel Le Bon would be able get in with bottom weight of ten stone off his current mark. This being so the 16-1 the bookies are offering about him for the Hennessy is awfully tempting.
POUNGACH WILL DO BETTER OVER THREE MILES
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (37) won a good renewal of the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novices Chase. But although he made the running at a decent pace it was slow enough for him to pick up quite a bit from six out. He came home from there 1.5 seconds faster than they did in the valuable Badger Ales Chase on the same card.
The increased pace had his main rival Poungach at full stretch for a long way. And I think the tactical advantage this gave Houblon Des Obeaux made him look better than he really is.
It's hard to get away from the fact that Houblon Des Obeaux has won all five times he's run in fields of ten or less below Grade 1 class but lost all thirteen times he's run in bigger fields. My speed rating and analysis suggest he is basically a Listed class horse that is best dominating fairly small fields of lower class rivals.
The runner up POUNGACH (36) looks a much more interesting prospect to me.
Poungach is a big-bodied, strong sort that's clearly built for three miles plus. He'd fallen at the first on his chasing debut and over jumped three of the first four fences here. But he then settled down and jumped better except for overjumping the water as well, the novelty of which seemed to spook him a little. However when the winner turned on the pace with six to jump he dropped back from second to be fourth by eight lengths and ridden along. It wasn't until the very late stages of the race that his stamina finally kicked in. On the run in he finished with a rush to snatch second on the line.
Clearly Poungach now needs to go up to three miles. My suspicion is that he will turn out to be better than the winner when he does. I'm not saying he'll win the Feltham but that race does look a logical target.
PROSPECT WELLS SHOULD GO FOR BETFAIR HURDLE
After a long history as the Schweppes Gold Trophy, punters finally got used to calling the event the Totesport Trophy only for the sponsor to be changed to Betfair last year. But whatever you call Newbury's most valuable hurdle PROSPECT WELLS (40) certainly looks good for it following his big run in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton.
The early pace was a crawl in the Elite Hurdle and Prospect Wells found himself in the lead despite taking 6.2 seconds longer to reach the second hurdle than they did in the ordinary novice hurdle earlier on the same card. However, after taking a long look back at this rivals and then waiting five or six seconds Ruby Walsh saw nobody else wanted to make the running so he kicked on to set a decent gallop.
Prospect Wells jumped fast and well in the lead until going slightly left at the second last and ceding a narrow edge to stablemate Zarkandar. He worked his way back into a neck lead before the last but clattered through that jump, landing on all fours and slightly sideways, again surrendering the lead to Zarkandar. He rallied once more but the run in is short at Wincanton so he wasn't able to quite get back up.
This run was right up there with Prospect Wells' best ever performances. But I suspect there are three things he did not have here that could have improved it. Namely a strong early pace, a more galloping track and left-handed turns.
When he was a flat racer in France Prospect Wells did best when coming from far back off a strong early pace to finish second in the Grand Prix de Paris. And last season, after he lost a slow run hurdle with a sprint finish trainer Paul Nicholls said "he’ll be better in a competitive field where they go flat out." That has long been my impression. Prospect Wells is a long, striding horse that I'm sure would have no trouble staying two and a half miles perhaps further. He would surely have done better at Wincanton if something else had been prepared to go on and set a decent pace from the start.
I also suspect Prospect Wells would have preferred a bigger course. After all he's won three of the four times he's run around ovals two miles or more in circumference but scored in just one of his nineteen tries around smaller tracks.
Finally the way that Prospect Wells jumped slightly left two out raises the old doubt about him on right handed courses. He's run well on courses that turn right but has yet to win on one in eleven tries.
Put all this together and it's easy to see why I think the invariably fast run Betfair Hurdle around Newbury's left-handed two mile oval will suit Prospect Wells perfectly.
The one concern I have is that the big Newbury race isn't run until February. It's hard to see how Prospect Wells can keep on racing between now and then without blowing his current very lenient handicap mark. For this reason if he were mine I'd be inclined to avoid the big conditions hurdles for now and restrict him to just one or two handicap races before February to ensure he's fresh and well handicapped for the big race.
The winner ZARKANDAR (40) won the Betfair Hurdle last year before running seriously well for a five year old to stay on strongly and take fifth in the Champion Hurdle.
The stats say it's very difficult for a horse less than six years of age to be competitive in the Champion Hurdle. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 80 have tried. This was Katchit in 2008 - and he had way more hurdling experience than most horses his age (a dozen previous starts over timber).
Logically Zarkandar should do better in this season's Champion Hurdle, as most horses do when they mature from five to six. He should certainly improve on this run as he was not fully fit according to trainer Paul Nicholls.
I don't take weight into account in my ratings. But to beat a rival as smart as Prospect Wells when giving him seventeen pounds and a fitness edge suggests Zarkandar may well be a bit better than I'm able to rate him. There are plenty of smart two mile hurdlers around but Zarkandar might just be up to winning the Champion Hurdle this time around. We'll get a better idea of his prospects after he's tackled the International Hurdle at Cheltenham next time out.
SIZING RIO HAS BIG CHANCE IN SUPREME NOVICES
SIZING RIO (40) impressed me greatly when winning the Grade 3 For Auction Novice Hurdle at Navan. He made the running at a decent pace and then accelerated without urging to have most of his rivals in trouble after three out. The really impressive part of his victory though was how he accelerated again to swamp the runner up for finishing speed when that one came up to try and challenge him on the run in.
The time that Sizing Rio clocked was Grade 1 class for a novice by my reckoning. And the way he picked up tells me he can almost certainly run faster.
I concede that Sizing Rio is built and bred for three miles over fences and has already won a point to point. However he is a very athletic sort of chaser that clearly has speed and acceleration as well as stamina.
Jockey Andrew Lynch told trainer Henry de Bromhead after the race that Sizing Rio "was a bit hard to get around the bends in front." On reviewing the video this didn't look to be of much importance. Lynch did have to pull a bit on the left hand rein rounding the second turn and the home turn. But Sizing Rio never came off a straight line and he jumped every hurdle as straight as a die.
Most inexperienced horses show steering problems of some sort which they soon work out of. And Sizing Rio was very happy to lean in towards the rail rounding the turns when Lynch showed him through the reins that this is what he wanted him to do.
De Bromhead added "He is real galloping horse and the faster they go the better he is. He is a big raw four-year-old and he is a real horse for the future and fences. We will give him a break now and probably bring him back for Leopardstown at Christmas. Hopefully there won't be a problem with him going left-handed there. He is not entered in the Royal Bond and I think he will be better on better ground."
I don't see any problem with Sizing Rio going left handed in future. So I'd expect him to win the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas at Leopardstown. I also agree with de Bromhead's remarks about the horse being likely to prefer faster ground. Most horses with a turn of foot like his do. All in all he looks to me like developing into Ireland's main hope for the Supreme Novices. So the 33-1 Boylesports are offering about him for that race is surely way too big.
Runner up TED VEALE (39) was brought with a well timed late challenge but simply couldn't go with the winner in the last hundred yards when he accelerated for the second time. He's clearly a smart hurdler. He lost his first try over timber, like most horses do. He also failed to stay 2m 5f on his previous run. But he would have been a six length winner scoring for the third time in a row here if he'd skipped that one race where he didn't stay.
Ted Veale's trainer says he's not big enough for steeplechasing, but my numbers say he's good enough to win pretty much any novice hurdle where he can avoid Sizing Rio.
I do no know why third placed CELTIC CAILIN (36) improved to run a two and three quarter length third in a mares Grade 3 last time or why she improved again here. But the way she moved up to join issue with the first two before failing to go with them when things got serious suggests that she's a threat to win a patter race restricted to her own sex soon.
FLEMENSTAR LOOKS A TWO AND A HALF MILER
A horse needs to be a decent size to clear a steeplechase fence efficiently. But, as with flat racers, the longer the distance the smaller the winners tend to be. In fact when you get to chasers as big as FLEMENSTAR (39) it's a good rule of thumb that they won't stay more than two and a half miles.
I'm old enough to remember family size two and a half mile chasers like Straight Jocelyn and The Mighty Mac. More recently Joncol is a good example of the two and a half mile giant.
With all these horses there's always a debate about whether they can stay three miles. Sometimes they manage it in a slow run race or around an easy track but they don't win Cheltenham Gold Cups.
After watching Flemenenstar win the Fortia Chase on his seasonal debut I'm pretty confident that he has little chance of lasting the Gold Cup distance. He jumped well and clocked a good time despite being in need of the outing according to his trainer. So he should have a good chance against Joncol and co in the John Durkan Memorial next time over two and a half miles. But I'll be inclined to bet against him if he steps up to three miles for the Lexus after that. I know he won a point to point over that distance, but it was nine seconds slower than the fastest race on the card and hardly proves he stays that far.
Flemenstar ran a bit faster than this as a novice and no doubt will again. It will be interesting to see how he does in the John Durkan. However he's unlikely to represent value there. I still fancy Joncol to beat him as Paul Nolan's big horse has only lost one of his six chases between 2m 4f and 2m 6f. This was when he ran five lengths second to Rubi Light in last year's John Durkan where the winner earned a bigger speed rating from me than Flemenstar has so far.
WHTUTHINK USEFUL IN SMALL FIELDS
I have long maintained that there's nowhere near as much difference in ability between high class horses as is generally supposed. The difference between winning and losing is not made by differences in ability but preferences for certain conditions.
No better evidence for this could be asked than WHATUTHINK (36).
Whatuthink has run in a wide variety of circumstances. But barring his first win in low class races in each discipline - flat, hurdle and chase, all his victories have come in single figure fields, at trips of two and a half miles or less, over hurdles or fences off breaks of a month or less on ground slower than good.. He has in fact won all five times he's run in these circumstances.
Whatuthink's latest win came at big odds in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle where the strong pace he set on heavy ground seemed to take the sting out of Voler La Vedette's usual finishing kick. The top class mare came with a run, moving well, but started to flounder as Whatuthink rallied in the closing stages.
Voler La Vedette had won on her last four seasonal debuts, so I don't think this loss can be blamed on lack of fitness. She'd scored her Grade 1 win on heavy ground too, which removes the going as an excuse.
This was Voler La Vedette's fourth loss in a row and her worst performance in two years. It could be she's deteriorated. Or maybe the tongue tie she's acquired in the last year is a sign of breathing problems. Either way I now need to see her show her old form and won't assume she's still able to show it.
SAVELLO SHOULD WIN SOON
One interesting thing about jump racing from a timing perspective is that the longer distances give much more scope for the runners to go an unsustainably fast early gallop than on the flat. This leads to what I call a 'pace collapse' where the entire field tires so badly they end up clocking a much slower final time than they otherwise would have.
The latest example of a pace collapse occurred in a two mile novice chase at Navan on Sunday. In this race SAVELLO (21) and Toon River tore off at an insanely fast pace. They reached the third fence five and a half seconds before Flemenstar did in the Fortia Chase on the same card. From there the novices steadily tired to complete the rest of the race 10.3 seconds slower than Flemenstar.
What was remarkable is that when the leaders were caught Toon River beat a rapid retreat to finish tailed off last but Savello hung in there till just before the second last and ended up running fifth. If he'd paced himself better and perhaps had a more recent outing I'm sure he'd have finished a lot closer.
For a novice chasing debutante to be able to jump at such speed and still run reasonably well is quite something. Savello may not be a world beater but he's certainly way better than he was able to show here and should win soon.
PENNY'S PICNIC THE TOP FRENCH 2YO
Earlier this season PENNY'S PICNIC (38) clocked an astonishingly fast time when winning a minor conditions race by a dozen lengths. He did it again when winning the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte.
Approaching the final furlong Irish raider Viztoria was ahead and making the best of her way home with Penny's Picnic last of the nine runners. But when Penny's Picnic was switched to the stands rail his jockey merely had to shake the whip at him to close the gap rapidly and easily to blow by everything and win by a length.
The time that Penny's Picnic clocked was a fifth of a second faster than the next quickest race on the card, the Group 3 Prix de Seine-et-Oise for older horses over the same trip of 1200 metres (six furlongs). So it's right up there with the eye-catching performance of Dawn Approach who clocked the same time as the Group 2 Challenge Stakes for older horses when winning the Dewhurst over the same course and distance.
I've mentioned before that Penny's Picnic is bred to get least seven furlongs. He is by a smart seven furlong performer and the first foal of an unraced dam that's a full sister to dual one mile Group winner Penny's Gold. This run makes me strongly inclined to believe he will get the mile in the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). Indeed his trainer says that his defeats by Reckless Abandon in the Papin and Morny were caused by him being taken off his feet by the pace set by that seriously fast sprinter on fast ground. I also have to say that, seeing how well he performed from off the pace at Maisons-Laffitte, if they'd switched to hold up tactics in the Pain and Morny he would have done far better. No doubt he'll be ridden this way from now on.
It is easy to argue that Penny's Picnic needs cut in the ground as he's won all five times he's run on good to soft or slower ground and suffered those two losses on a faster surface. However he shows no knee action and has actually twice won on ground only slightly slower than good. In addition the three wins scored by his sire and the three pattern wins by Penny's Gold were all on a fast surface. It now seems pretty clear that he's done better on a slower surface to date simply because it's made the short distances he's tackled to date more of a stamina test.
There's no question in my mind that Penny's Picnic deserves to be rated the top French two year old on this run. His trainer says he will be entered in " all the Classics" next year. This suggests he has hopes of him staying the ten and a half furlongs of the Prix du Jockey Club. His next start will be in the Prix Djebel over seven furlongs in April. If there were ante-post betting on the French 2000 Guineas right now he'd carry my money.
The horses that followed Penny's Picnic home appear to all be sprinters, so their Classic prospects don't look great. However runner up VIZTORIA (37) ran so fast and is so stoutly bred I have to concede that my belief her short-necked, close-coupled physique makes her unlikely to stay a mile could be wrong. This is the second time she's earned a Group 1 class rating from me and her trainer Edward Lynam is still aiming her at the Irish 1000 Guineas in May.
MORANDI NEEDS TO SHOW MORE
One of the biggest changes in French racing over the last two decades has been the way the top horses are now held back from racing at two years of age.
In the early nineties and earlier there were plenty of brilliant French horses that showed sensational form as juveniles. Nowadays though it is invariably only Guineas prospects that are occasionally given a serious campaign at two. The Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris candidates generally only have one run very late in the season if they run as two year olds at all.
For this reason I would urge caution in regards to the runaway win scored by MORANDI in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over ten furlongs last week. I concede this strong stocky colt sat close to a strong pace and then powered away from his rivals up the straight. However he only clocked a Group 3 class time. And the subsequent record of recent French-trained winners of this race is not encouraging.
From 1994 to last year there were ten French-trained winners of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. The only win they scored in 27 later Group 1 races was the short head success of Voix du Nord in the Prix Lupin - a rather weak Group 1 that has since been discontinued.
I concede Morandi may be able to run faster than he did at Saint-Cloud. But I'll be inclined to oppose him when he faces rivals that have been brought along more slowly next year.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
DYNASTE SHOULD WIN FELTHAM BUT NOT RSA
One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all eighteen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while six Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.
I think I'll be raising this topic again just after Christmas because DYNASTE (41) now looks a good thing for this year's Feltham following his impressive success at Cheltenham's Open meeting on his chasing debut.
Dynaste tired badly late four of the five previous times he'd tackled tracks with uphill finishes. However he had lasted home when asked for his big effort late in the Cleeve Hurdle where he ran his best ever race to be second to Big Buck's.
Dynaste's connections clearly had this in mind as the grey was held up behind the leaders for his first try over fences. This prompted him to race a little keenly but it didn't affect his performance. He moved well and jumped well all the way - except for overjumping a couple of fences when slightly crowded.
It was obvious from a long way out that Dynaste was going to be able to blow by his opponents whenever his jockey pressed the button. He did this before the last and Dynaste quickly swept by the smart leader Fingal Bay and went on to score by nearly five lengths.
Dynaste is a better horse than Grands Crus who won the same race for the Pipe yard last year before going on to win the Feltham after taking the Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase at Newbury. Pipe suggested after the race that may well be the plan they follow with Dynaste as well.
It's hard to see anything stopping Dynaste in the Feltham. His excellent jumping will give him an edge over the track's stiff jumps, and his acceleration is good enough to get all his rivals in trouble when he kicks for home.
The big test will come in the RSA Chase. The bookies have already marked Dynaste up as joint ante-post favourite for that race but I have major concerns about him lasting home up the hill at Cheltenham.
The problem facing Dynaste in the RSA Chase is that most races at the Cheltenham Festival are run at a searching early pace. Even if they're not the gallop invariably picks up a long way from home and the runners produce a very fast five or six furlong section before tiring up the finishing hill.
The extent of the problem can be gleaned from the fact that Dynaste was held up in the World Hurdle last year but still tired rapidly in the closing stages to get beat over 44 lengths.
I note with interest that Dynaste wore a tongue tie in the World Hurdle and that it was dispensed with for this race. Quite often when a tongue tie is removed following a long break it suggests a horse has had a breathing operation. This being so you could argue there's been an excuse for Dynaste's previous failures on tracks with steep uphill finishes - i.e. a breathing problem that has now been corrected. Despite this I still reckon the horse is just too darned pacey to be a good bet to get up the hill in the RSA Chase.
Runner up FINGAL BAY (39) is much more of an RSA Chase sort to my way of thinking. He kicked on with three to jump then was rather swamped for finishing speed by the winner.
You could argue Fingal Bay also has stamina doubts seeing that his only previous loss came the one time he was asked to go three miles. However that was at the Aintree Festival after he'd missed work due to a hamstring injury got hampered early, lost ground with a blunder at the eighth but still finished second, beaten under two lengths, in a Grade 1.
No doubt Fingal Bay will get outpaced once more by Dynaste in the Feltham. But I still like the idea of taking 12-1 about him for the RSA Chase rather than the 8-1 for Dynaste.
Third placed UNIONISTE (37) is a long striding sort that's a half brother to the smart staying chaser My Will. He set a decent place but then got left for dead by the superior pace of the first two before staying on again up the hill.
On his last hurdles start in France Unioniste finished strongly to pass half a dozen horses up Auteuil's short homestraight in a Listed contest over two and a quarter miles. His only hurdles win came at the longest trip he tried - 2m 3f. He'd won his two previous chase starts over 2m 1.5f and 2m 4f but is clearly going to need three miles plus to show his best form.
My suspicion is that, like My Will, Unioniste is going to prove best over marathon trips in time. But he's only four years of age, so it's a little too early to be stepping him up to really long distances just yet. So, while he should improve over three miles, I still think the best novices will have a little too much pace for him over that distance.
KING GEORGE A BAD IDEA FOR AL FEROF
AL FEROF (40) clocked a good time off a searching early gallop when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup. But neither his dam or grandam have ever produced a winner beyond the 2m 4.5f of the race and I don't think Al Ferof is likely to change that if he takes up his entry in the King George.
The big worry on this score is that Al Ferof was very tired in the closing stages and had to be driven right out to keep going on the run in. He actually took 1.3 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than in the marathon chase on the same card won by Monbeg Dude over 7f longer. And he took 4.1 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than Dynaste did in the novice chase over the same distance on the Friday. (I estimate that if the going had been the same on both days he'd have taken 3.6 seconds longer.)
You could argue that it was the fast early pace that caused Al Ferof to tire so badly. But if he had serious prospects of staying three miles he would have finished his race out much more strongly. In addition the early pace is almost always seriously fast in the King George as well.
Al Ferof has now won six of his last nine races. In the first of his losses he ran a good third when attempting to become the first novice to beat experienced rivals in a Grade 1 chase. In the second he faced an impossible task against the freakishly fast pair Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card in the Arkle where he stopped to get beat 32 lengths. And in his other loss he may well have been feeling the effects of that taxing effort when a disappointing third at the Aintree Festival.
That's an impressive record. But it doesn't make Al Ferof a three mile chaser. It seems to me that the logical way to go with him is to stick to two and a half mile chases. My ratings say that the top two and a half mile chasers last season were truly dreadful They also indicate that we have some exceptional two and three mile chasers this season. So if Al Ferof stays at two and a half miles he'd have a shot of winning a Grade 1 chase this term.
In any event, my ratings also indicate that Al Ferof is simply not fast enough to have a realistic chance in the King George even if he did stay the distance. On balance therefore it is surely a race to avoid with the horse.
Runner up WALKON (39) ran a big race to duel with the winner from some way out but just couldn't quite go with him in the closing stages.
It's tempting to say that Walkon is best fresh given how well he has done on his seasonal debuts. But he's also produced several smart efforts (including his two Grade 1 wins) when he's had recent outings. I suspect it is simply a lack of stamina that controls his form.
I reckon that Walkon has trouble getting home around Newbury's giant two mile oval and over trips of 2m 5f or more. If two seconds by less than a length had been wins he would have won the last nine times he'd run less than 2m 5f outside Newbury prior to this smart second.
OUR FATHER PROBABLY NEEDS SOFT GROUND
OUR FATHER (37) clocked a decent time when winning a three mile novice chase at Cheltenham's Open Meeting. And I dare say he could have matched the bigger rating of 39 I awarded him for his Ascot win last year if there'd been something to push him in the closing stages.
It does look likely that Our Father needs soft ground to produce his best as he's won or finished second the five times he's encountered such going and run clunkers the two times he hasn't.
It's possible that Our Father simply needs to be very fresh to win a race. After all he's scored on all three of his seasonal debuts and lost his other four starts. But he ran well off a quick return twice last year when he encountered soft ground. So his most likely main requirement is a soft surface.
WISHFULL THINKING HAS BIG CHANCE IN PETERBOROUGH CHASE
WISHFULL THINKING (40) ran right up to his best when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham. In a strongly run race he came right away from his rivals two out.
The Shloer Chase was two miles but rode like two and a half due to the soft ground, strong pace and testing course. Normally Wishfull Thinking is best over two and a half miles.
These days Wishfull Thinking seems to need his seasonal debut. Toss out his last two seasonal debuts and his remaining form shows seven wins in seven completed starts over distances from 2m 3f to 2m5f. One of his losses was a close seconds after being badly hampered. Another two of his losses were second place finishes to top class rivals.
Trainer Philip Hobbs says that Wishfull Thinking has had three breathing operations but seems to be having less trouble with his breathing this season. He's certainly running as fast as he ever has on my ratings. So I think he has a fine chance of winning the Peterborough Chase next time. Huntingdon's big two and a half mile chase is his next objective according to Hobbs.
IS CAPTAIN CONAN REALLY A TWO MILER?
After CAPTAIN CONAN (38) won the Grade 2 Arkle Trial on his chasing debut at Cheltenham trainer Nicky Henderson said on TV that he felt the horse was probably best at two miles.
The horse's pedigree certainly points this way, as does his form. He's tired late twice over two and a quarter miles. However he is such a big, long striding horse I have my doubts. I still suspect he could prove better over two and a half miles. This race finally gave me some evidence to support that assertion.
The evidence comes in the form of the sectional times. These show that in his race they jumped the fifth fence 2.2 seconds sooner than they went in the Shloer Chase over the same trip. However the fifth fence was the point where Doeslessthanme was allowed to stride on in the Shloer Chase with Wishfull Thinking soon separating himself from the rest to chase him. The duel between the pair saw them close the time gap on the Arkle Trial field and then go 3.1 seconds ahead by the second last.
Wishfull Thinking was ridden out all the way from two out and wasn't stopping. But Captain Conan closed the 3.1 second advantage he held two out down to just a second by the finish as he stayed on strongly to readily beat Sire De Grugy a couple of lengths.
Captain Conan jumped well, if a little big at times (which is perfectly normal for a chasing debutante). This run wasn't quite good enough to win a Grade 1. However he clearly has scope for improvement as he had a bit in hand. And I'd still like to see him given a shot over two and a half miles - even if it's only at the end of the season in the big two and a half mile novice chase at the Aintree Festival. The flat, tight track would give him the best chance of staying the distance and he'd have more experience by then.
SIRE DE GRUGY (37) ran a good race, keeping on strongly to pull clear of the rest. His form seems to suggest that he dislikes tracks with long homestraights. He's lost all six times he's run on tracks with homestraights of half a mile plus but had won the last six times he'd run on tracks with shorter homestraights prior to this big run.
WETAK IS STILL INTERESTING
I gave WETAK (37) a big write up after his first UK start, noting that he'd passed the post first all three times he'd run over distances short of 2m 5f over fences in France. He looked set to make it four from four at Cheltenham's Open Meeting until a mistake two out saw him lurch dangerously left on landing and lose a good deal of momentum. He managed to get rolling again late and was closing in on the winner up the finishing hill but ended up a length and a half short.
The way that Wetak had to be rowed along from a long way out but kept responding tells me that the two miles of this race was on the short side for him.. So I'd like to see him go back up to two and a half miles in the near future. He's still on a very lenient handicap mark and should be able to exploit it to win a valuable handicap soon.
The winner SHOOTERS WOOD (38) took the lead a long way out and was fairly tanking along, full of running. He clocked a fast time and is clearly a useful performer. Trainer Paul Nicholls says he's best on left-handed tracks. This seems true as he would have won all three times he's run around two miles on left handed tracks over fences if one photo had gone his way.
ANONIS SHOULD BE GOOD OVER LONGER
ANONIS (37) clocked a fast time to win a good Listed Bumper at Cheltenham. A feature of his performance was how he stuck close to a strong pace, kicked on a long way out and then rallied to stay on powerfully just when it appeared likely his rivals might get to him.
Looking at his pedigree and physique, plus the way he ran here, it seems obvious that stamina is Anonis' strong suit. I've little doubt he'll be a good staying hurdler and he has the build to adapt to fences too.
SIZING EUROPE LOOKS UNSTOPPABLE OVER TWO AND A HALF MILES
SIZING EUROPE (42) was awfully impressive when winning the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase. He was always moving comfortably and simply went further and further clear from four out to win with a good deal in hand.
It's hard to tell how fast an easy wide margin winner would have run if fully ridden out. But it's interesting to note that up to two out, by which time he was a long way clear, Sizing Europe had run a lot faster than the smart mare Tarla who won a novice chase over the same distance. From two out he took 1.74 seconds longer than Tarla to reach the finish. I think it's reasonable to suppose that if he'd been pushed out Sizing Europe would have matched Tarla's finishing effort. If he had he'd have earned a monstrous rating of 45 from me. That's right up there with the best chasers of recent years.
There are very few steeplechasers around that can run as fast as Sizing Europe did here. Most of the ones that can look likely to be going three miles this season. So it makes sense to keep Sizing Europe at two and a half miles. After all he's now run in six steeplechases over 2m 1f to 2m 4f and won them all.
I agree with Sizing Europe's trainer Henry de Bromhead that the horse could get three miles on good or faster ground, especially if the early pace wasn't too strong. But why bother trying to go longer when you've got a two and a half mile champion?
If he were mine I wouldn’t think of going for anything other than the two and a half mile John Durkan Memorial next time. And the race I'd be giving a lot of thought to for Sizing Europe would be the world's most valuable steeplechase, the Nakayama Grand Jump over 2m 5f in April.
The main problem for foreign horses trying to win the Nakayama Grand Jump is that they need a run to get used to the kind of fences they're faced with and the tight, undulating course. The only foreign winner of the race to date was Kerasi who was given experience of the track and the obstacles three weeks before the first of his three wins in the big race when running third in the Pegasus Jump over the same course. In fact he prepped in the Pegasus Jump before all three of his wins in the Nakayama Grand Jump, running second or third each time. If Sizing Europe's connections are prepared to follow the same plan and suffer a loss in the Pegasus Jump to get him prepared for the Grand Jump I reckon he could win the big Japanese race.
TARLA HAS STAMINA LIMITS
TARLA (37) was always moving far better than her rivals in a Grade 3 novice chase at Clonmel and eventually cruised home eight lengths ahead of the useful Our Girl Salley.
Having looked at the videos of her past races more closely I'm now rather sure I was mistaken to believe that Tarla could stay three miles. In this regard the race that sticks out in her record is her only Irish loss where she stopped after running 11 furlongs when beaten 69 lengths in a 1m 6f contest.
A fair rule of thumb is that a mile and three quarters on the flat requires the same sort of stamina as two and a half miles over hurdles. Tarla has now won two and a half mile raced over hurdles and fences, though it's worth adding they were both around tracks just ten furlongs in circumference. Around the 12f oval of Auteuil in France she twice tired late over just two and a quarter miles. In the circumstances I can see why trainer Willie Mullins has made the big two and a quarter mile mares hurdle at the Punchestown Festival her main target rather than longer races.
Tarla is almost certainly capable of running faster than I've been able to rate her so far. She will surely be tried against males sooner rather than later and has the size to do well against them.
HURRICANE FLY AS GOOD AS EVER BUT SO IS GO NATIVE
HURRICANE FLY (42) demonstrated once more how a top class horse can make up for lost time in a slow run race when winning the Morgiana Hurdle. He clocked a slightly slower final time than they went in the good handicap hurdle on the same card but came home from the second last 4.4 seconds faster. When I adjust my speed rating for this tremendous finishing sprint it suggests Hurricane Fly is just as good as ever.
The reason Hurricane Fly ran so fast in the closing stages is that he was being pushed hard by GO NATIVE (42) when his rival fell at the last. He'd built up so much momentum that he barely slowed down at all on the relatively short run in.
The big question is whether Go Native would have beaten Hurricane Fly if he'd stood up.
There's no question that Go Native was moving better than Hurricane Fly when he fell. Ruby Walsh was pushing away on Hurricane Fly while Paul Carberry was merely nudging Go Native to keep tabs on him. Punters clearly felt Go Native was posed to pass the leader. This is shown by the fact he was trading at 1.71 when he fell as opposed to 2.00 for Hurricane Fly. Personally I'm rather confident Go Native would have got up to win by a neck or half a length had he stood up.
The reason Go Native fell was that jockey Paul Carberry was understandably delaying asking his mount for everything until jumping the last. This meant he was about a length behind approaching the obstacle.
Unfortunately due to the flat out sprint from two out there wasn't much time for Go Native to think about when to launch himself at the final hurdle. So he took his cue from Hurricane Run and jumped a few nanoseconds later even though he was a length behind and should have waited a bit. This caused him to land on top of the last hurdle and crumple to a fall. Seeing that his last run over jumps was back in March 2010 I think we can forgive him this lapse of judgement.
I can't see how you can argue Hurricane Fly ran below form due to being short of fitness on his seasonal debut. He's won Grade 1's on his last two seasonal debuts. Besides the slow early pace meant the race was not a serious test of his fitness. I think we just have to accept that Go Native is probably just a little bit better than him at this stage of their careers.
I don't think there's much point asking this brilliant pair to face off again before the Champion Hurdle. The likely ensuing duel could ensure they both have too hard a race to recover from quickly. So, seeing that Hurricane Fly's connections have nominated the Istabraq Hurdle over Christmas as his next race, it's surely logical for Go Native's team to go with their original plan of tackling the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. This should ensure both horses have a good shot of gaining an easy, confidence boosting win next time.
Given what happened in the Morgiana Hurdle I just cannot understand why Hurricane Fly is now favourite for the Champion Hurdle while Go Native is 20-1. No doubt the difference in odds will narrow if things go as planned for both horses. But the stats for the Champion Hurdle suggest neither one is likely to win the big race.
The statistics for the Champion Hurdle are pretty strong:
* Seventeen of the last eighteen Champion Hurdle winners reached the first four at the last Cheltenham Festival - unless they hadn’t made their first NH start at that time or had won a Grade 1 at Cheltenham since.
* The last seventeen Champion Hurdle winners won at least half their completed hurdle starts, or half their last ten or fourteen starts in total (flat and jump).
* In the last 24 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 14 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 14 reached the first three. If the same proportion of Champion Hurdle winners have attempted repeat wins in non-consecutive years since the race was first run then there have been 47 attempts for just a single win (Comedy Of Errors in 1975)
* The stats say it's very difficult for a horse less than six years of age to be competitive in the Champion Hurdle. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 80 have tried.
If these stats are any guide the Champion Hurdle concerns just four horses: Cinders And Ashes, Darlan, Montbazon and Rock On Ruby.
Rock On Ruby may seem the obvious choice as he won the Champion Hurdle last year. However some more stats suggest a bit of caution about his chances.
For starters, here is the record of Champion Hurdle winners that have attempted to repeat their wins in the big race the following year over the last fourty years;
2012 Hurricane Fly third
2010 Punjabi ninth
2009 Katchit sixth
2008 Sublimity fourth
2007 Brave Inca second
2006 Hardy Eustace third
2005 Hardy Eustace WON
2004 Rooster Booster second
2003 Hors La Loi III left
2000 Istabraq WON
1999 Istabraq WON
1997 Collier Bay pulled up
1996 Alderbrook second
1994 Granville Again seventh
1992 Morley Street sixth
1990 Beech Road fourth
1989 Celtic Shot third
1987 See You Then WON
1986 See You Then WON
1983 For Auction third
1981 Sea Pigeon WON
1980 Monksfield second
1979 Monksfield WON
1978 Night Nurse third
1977 Night Nurse WON
1974 Comedy Of Errors second
1972 Bula WON
1971 Persian War second
1970 Persian War WON
1969 Persian War WON
At first glance this looks good for Rock On Ruby as eleven of the thirty defending Champions won again and twenty one reached the first three. However there is a bias towards younger defending champions. Eight of the seventeen that defended their titles at age seven or less scored, with thirteen of them reaching the first three. But only three of the thirteen that defended their titles at age eight or more scored. Rock On Ruby will be eight when the 2013 race is run.
I do no like the fact that new trainer Harry Fry is planning to give Rock On Ruby just two runs before tackling the Champion Hurdle - the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle.
The stats suggest this is a bad idea.
Here is the Champion Hurdle record as far back as I can check of horses aged eight or more with two or fewer previous national hunt runs that season (n.b. I‘m counting August as still being the start of the season as trainers still do):
2012 Hurricane Fly 4-6 3rd
:
2011 Dunguib 10-1 8th
Khyber Kim 12-1 9th
2010 Khyber Kim 7-1 2nd
2009 Harchibald 33-1 17th
Ebaziyan 50-1 20th
Cybergenic 250-1 pulled up
2008 Sublimity 7-1 7th
Blythe Knight 50-1 11th
Contraband 200-1 pulled up
2006 Hardy Eustace 11-2 3rd
Astonville 500-1 13th
Turnium 500-1 pulled up
2005 Back In Front 7-2 9th
Intersky Falcon 40-1 6th
Turnium 500-1 14th
2004 Specular 14-1 9th
Westender 16-1 5th
Geos 20-1 pulled up
2003 Like-A-Butterfly 13-2 10th
Landing Light 14-1 7th
Copeland 25-1 fell
2002 Istabraq 2-1 pulled up
Mister Morose 100-1 8th
Mr Cool 100-1 7th
2000 Make A Stand 33-1 12th
1998 Relkeel 14-1 9th\
1997 Large Action 7-2 pulled up
1996 Danoli 5-1 4th
Hotel Minella 10-1 9th
Land Afar 25-1 10th
Staunch Friend 66-1 8th
Boro Eight 100-1 7th
Muse 100-1 pulled up
1995 Fortune And Fame 5-1 4th
Montelado 10-1 9th
Destriero 33-1 11th
Granville Again 100-1 12th
1994 Halkopous 13-2 9th
Morley Street 16-1 pulled up
Mole Board 40-1 4th
1992 Kribensis 12-1 14th
1991 The Illiad 11-2 21st
Sondrio 10-1 20th
1990 See You Then 25-1 16th
As you can see all 45 horses as old as Rock On Ruby that had a similarly light preparation for the Champion Hurdle lost. The losers included nine previous Champion Hurdlers, only two of which even reached the first six.
In my experience older horses take more racing to get them fully fit. This, I believe, explains the above statistics.
One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all eighteen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while six Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.
I think I'll be raising this topic again just after Christmas because DYNASTE (41) now looks a good thing for this year's Feltham following his impressive success at Cheltenham's Open meeting on his chasing debut.
Dynaste tired badly late four of the five previous times he'd tackled tracks with uphill finishes. However he had lasted home when asked for his big effort late in the Cleeve Hurdle where he ran his best ever race to be second to Big Buck's.
Dynaste's connections clearly had this in mind as the grey was held up behind the leaders for his first try over fences. This prompted him to race a little keenly but it didn't affect his performance. He moved well and jumped well all the way - except for overjumping a couple of fences when slightly crowded.
It was obvious from a long way out that Dynaste was going to be able to blow by his opponents whenever his jockey pressed the button. He did this before the last and Dynaste quickly swept by the smart leader Fingal Bay and went on to score by nearly five lengths.
Dynaste is a better horse than Grands Crus who won the same race for the Pipe yard last year before going on to win the Feltham after taking the Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase at Newbury. Pipe suggested after the race that may well be the plan they follow with Dynaste as well.
It's hard to see anything stopping Dynaste in the Feltham. His excellent jumping will give him an edge over the track's stiff jumps, and his acceleration is good enough to get all his rivals in trouble when he kicks for home.
The big test will come in the RSA Chase. The bookies have already marked Dynaste up as joint ante-post favourite for that race but I have major concerns about him lasting home up the hill at Cheltenham.
The problem facing Dynaste in the RSA Chase is that most races at the Cheltenham Festival are run at a searching early pace. Even if they're not the gallop invariably picks up a long way from home and the runners produce a very fast five or six furlong section before tiring up the finishing hill.
The extent of the problem can be gleaned from the fact that Dynaste was held up in the World Hurdle last year but still tired rapidly in the closing stages to get beat over 44 lengths.
I note with interest that Dynaste wore a tongue tie in the World Hurdle and that it was dispensed with for this race. Quite often when a tongue tie is removed following a long break it suggests a horse has had a breathing operation. This being so you could argue there's been an excuse for Dynaste's previous failures on tracks with steep uphill finishes - i.e. a breathing problem that has now been corrected. Despite this I still reckon the horse is just too darned pacey to be a good bet to get up the hill in the RSA Chase.
Runner up FINGAL BAY (39) is much more of an RSA Chase sort to my way of thinking. He kicked on with three to jump then was rather swamped for finishing speed by the winner.
You could argue Fingal Bay also has stamina doubts seeing that his only previous loss came the one time he was asked to go three miles. However that was at the Aintree Festival after he'd missed work due to a hamstring injury got hampered early, lost ground with a blunder at the eighth but still finished second, beaten under two lengths, in a Grade 1.
No doubt Fingal Bay will get outpaced once more by Dynaste in the Feltham. But I still like the idea of taking 12-1 about him for the RSA Chase rather than the 8-1 for Dynaste.
Third placed UNIONISTE (37) is a long striding sort that's a half brother to the smart staying chaser My Will. He set a decent place but then got left for dead by the superior pace of the first two before staying on again up the hill.
On his last hurdles start in France Unioniste finished strongly to pass half a dozen horses up Auteuil's short homestraight in a Listed contest over two and a quarter miles. His only hurdles win came at the longest trip he tried - 2m 3f. He'd won his two previous chase starts over 2m 1.5f and 2m 4f but is clearly going to need three miles plus to show his best form.
My suspicion is that, like My Will, Unioniste is going to prove best over marathon trips in time. But he's only four years of age, so it's a little too early to be stepping him up to really long distances just yet. So, while he should improve over three miles, I still think the best novices will have a little too much pace for him over that distance.
KING GEORGE A BAD IDEA FOR AL FEROF
AL FEROF (40) clocked a good time off a searching early gallop when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup. But neither his dam or grandam have ever produced a winner beyond the 2m 4.5f of the race and I don't think Al Ferof is likely to change that if he takes up his entry in the King George.
The big worry on this score is that Al Ferof was very tired in the closing stages and had to be driven right out to keep going on the run in. He actually took 1.3 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than in the marathon chase on the same card won by Monbeg Dude over 7f longer. And he took 4.1 seconds longer to get from the last to the finish than Dynaste did in the novice chase over the same distance on the Friday. (I estimate that if the going had been the same on both days he'd have taken 3.6 seconds longer.)
You could argue that it was the fast early pace that caused Al Ferof to tire so badly. But if he had serious prospects of staying three miles he would have finished his race out much more strongly. In addition the early pace is almost always seriously fast in the King George as well.
Al Ferof has now won six of his last nine races. In the first of his losses he ran a good third when attempting to become the first novice to beat experienced rivals in a Grade 1 chase. In the second he faced an impossible task against the freakishly fast pair Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card in the Arkle where he stopped to get beat 32 lengths. And in his other loss he may well have been feeling the effects of that taxing effort when a disappointing third at the Aintree Festival.
That's an impressive record. But it doesn't make Al Ferof a three mile chaser. It seems to me that the logical way to go with him is to stick to two and a half mile chases. My ratings say that the top two and a half mile chasers last season were truly dreadful They also indicate that we have some exceptional two and three mile chasers this season. So if Al Ferof stays at two and a half miles he'd have a shot of winning a Grade 1 chase this term.
In any event, my ratings also indicate that Al Ferof is simply not fast enough to have a realistic chance in the King George even if he did stay the distance. On balance therefore it is surely a race to avoid with the horse.
Runner up WALKON (39) ran a big race to duel with the winner from some way out but just couldn't quite go with him in the closing stages.
It's tempting to say that Walkon is best fresh given how well he has done on his seasonal debuts. But he's also produced several smart efforts (including his two Grade 1 wins) when he's had recent outings. I suspect it is simply a lack of stamina that controls his form.
I reckon that Walkon has trouble getting home around Newbury's giant two mile oval and over trips of 2m 5f or more. If two seconds by less than a length had been wins he would have won the last nine times he'd run less than 2m 5f outside Newbury prior to this smart second.
OUR FATHER PROBABLY NEEDS SOFT GROUND
OUR FATHER (37) clocked a decent time when winning a three mile novice chase at Cheltenham's Open Meeting. And I dare say he could have matched the bigger rating of 39 I awarded him for his Ascot win last year if there'd been something to push him in the closing stages.
It does look likely that Our Father needs soft ground to produce his best as he's won or finished second the five times he's encountered such going and run clunkers the two times he hasn't.
It's possible that Our Father simply needs to be very fresh to win a race. After all he's scored on all three of his seasonal debuts and lost his other four starts. But he ran well off a quick return twice last year when he encountered soft ground. So his most likely main requirement is a soft surface.
WISHFULL THINKING HAS BIG CHANCE IN PETERBOROUGH CHASE
WISHFULL THINKING (40) ran right up to his best when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham. In a strongly run race he came right away from his rivals two out.
The Shloer Chase was two miles but rode like two and a half due to the soft ground, strong pace and testing course. Normally Wishfull Thinking is best over two and a half miles.
These days Wishfull Thinking seems to need his seasonal debut. Toss out his last two seasonal debuts and his remaining form shows seven wins in seven completed starts over distances from 2m 3f to 2m5f. One of his losses was a close seconds after being badly hampered. Another two of his losses were second place finishes to top class rivals.
Trainer Philip Hobbs says that Wishfull Thinking has had three breathing operations but seems to be having less trouble with his breathing this season. He's certainly running as fast as he ever has on my ratings. So I think he has a fine chance of winning the Peterborough Chase next time. Huntingdon's big two and a half mile chase is his next objective according to Hobbs.
IS CAPTAIN CONAN REALLY A TWO MILER?
After CAPTAIN CONAN (38) won the Grade 2 Arkle Trial on his chasing debut at Cheltenham trainer Nicky Henderson said on TV that he felt the horse was probably best at two miles.
The horse's pedigree certainly points this way, as does his form. He's tired late twice over two and a quarter miles. However he is such a big, long striding horse I have my doubts. I still suspect he could prove better over two and a half miles. This race finally gave me some evidence to support that assertion.
The evidence comes in the form of the sectional times. These show that in his race they jumped the fifth fence 2.2 seconds sooner than they went in the Shloer Chase over the same trip. However the fifth fence was the point where Doeslessthanme was allowed to stride on in the Shloer Chase with Wishfull Thinking soon separating himself from the rest to chase him. The duel between the pair saw them close the time gap on the Arkle Trial field and then go 3.1 seconds ahead by the second last.
Wishfull Thinking was ridden out all the way from two out and wasn't stopping. But Captain Conan closed the 3.1 second advantage he held two out down to just a second by the finish as he stayed on strongly to readily beat Sire De Grugy a couple of lengths.
Captain Conan jumped well, if a little big at times (which is perfectly normal for a chasing debutante). This run wasn't quite good enough to win a Grade 1. However he clearly has scope for improvement as he had a bit in hand. And I'd still like to see him given a shot over two and a half miles - even if it's only at the end of the season in the big two and a half mile novice chase at the Aintree Festival. The flat, tight track would give him the best chance of staying the distance and he'd have more experience by then.
SIRE DE GRUGY (37) ran a good race, keeping on strongly to pull clear of the rest. His form seems to suggest that he dislikes tracks with long homestraights. He's lost all six times he's run on tracks with homestraights of half a mile plus but had won the last six times he'd run on tracks with shorter homestraights prior to this big run.
WETAK IS STILL INTERESTING
I gave WETAK (37) a big write up after his first UK start, noting that he'd passed the post first all three times he'd run over distances short of 2m 5f over fences in France. He looked set to make it four from four at Cheltenham's Open Meeting until a mistake two out saw him lurch dangerously left on landing and lose a good deal of momentum. He managed to get rolling again late and was closing in on the winner up the finishing hill but ended up a length and a half short.
The way that Wetak had to be rowed along from a long way out but kept responding tells me that the two miles of this race was on the short side for him.. So I'd like to see him go back up to two and a half miles in the near future. He's still on a very lenient handicap mark and should be able to exploit it to win a valuable handicap soon.
The winner SHOOTERS WOOD (38) took the lead a long way out and was fairly tanking along, full of running. He clocked a fast time and is clearly a useful performer. Trainer Paul Nicholls says he's best on left-handed tracks. This seems true as he would have won all three times he's run around two miles on left handed tracks over fences if one photo had gone his way.
ANONIS SHOULD BE GOOD OVER LONGER
ANONIS (37) clocked a fast time to win a good Listed Bumper at Cheltenham. A feature of his performance was how he stuck close to a strong pace, kicked on a long way out and then rallied to stay on powerfully just when it appeared likely his rivals might get to him.
Looking at his pedigree and physique, plus the way he ran here, it seems obvious that stamina is Anonis' strong suit. I've little doubt he'll be a good staying hurdler and he has the build to adapt to fences too.
SIZING EUROPE LOOKS UNSTOPPABLE OVER TWO AND A HALF MILES
SIZING EUROPE (42) was awfully impressive when winning the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase. He was always moving comfortably and simply went further and further clear from four out to win with a good deal in hand.
It's hard to tell how fast an easy wide margin winner would have run if fully ridden out. But it's interesting to note that up to two out, by which time he was a long way clear, Sizing Europe had run a lot faster than the smart mare Tarla who won a novice chase over the same distance. From two out he took 1.74 seconds longer than Tarla to reach the finish. I think it's reasonable to suppose that if he'd been pushed out Sizing Europe would have matched Tarla's finishing effort. If he had he'd have earned a monstrous rating of 45 from me. That's right up there with the best chasers of recent years.
There are very few steeplechasers around that can run as fast as Sizing Europe did here. Most of the ones that can look likely to be going three miles this season. So it makes sense to keep Sizing Europe at two and a half miles. After all he's now run in six steeplechases over 2m 1f to 2m 4f and won them all.
I agree with Sizing Europe's trainer Henry de Bromhead that the horse could get three miles on good or faster ground, especially if the early pace wasn't too strong. But why bother trying to go longer when you've got a two and a half mile champion?
If he were mine I wouldn’t think of going for anything other than the two and a half mile John Durkan Memorial next time. And the race I'd be giving a lot of thought to for Sizing Europe would be the world's most valuable steeplechase, the Nakayama Grand Jump over 2m 5f in April.
The main problem for foreign horses trying to win the Nakayama Grand Jump is that they need a run to get used to the kind of fences they're faced with and the tight, undulating course. The only foreign winner of the race to date was Kerasi who was given experience of the track and the obstacles three weeks before the first of his three wins in the big race when running third in the Pegasus Jump over the same course. In fact he prepped in the Pegasus Jump before all three of his wins in the Nakayama Grand Jump, running second or third each time. If Sizing Europe's connections are prepared to follow the same plan and suffer a loss in the Pegasus Jump to get him prepared for the Grand Jump I reckon he could win the big Japanese race.
TARLA HAS STAMINA LIMITS
TARLA (37) was always moving far better than her rivals in a Grade 3 novice chase at Clonmel and eventually cruised home eight lengths ahead of the useful Our Girl Salley.
Having looked at the videos of her past races more closely I'm now rather sure I was mistaken to believe that Tarla could stay three miles. In this regard the race that sticks out in her record is her only Irish loss where she stopped after running 11 furlongs when beaten 69 lengths in a 1m 6f contest.
A fair rule of thumb is that a mile and three quarters on the flat requires the same sort of stamina as two and a half miles over hurdles. Tarla has now won two and a half mile raced over hurdles and fences, though it's worth adding they were both around tracks just ten furlongs in circumference. Around the 12f oval of Auteuil in France she twice tired late over just two and a quarter miles. In the circumstances I can see why trainer Willie Mullins has made the big two and a quarter mile mares hurdle at the Punchestown Festival her main target rather than longer races.
Tarla is almost certainly capable of running faster than I've been able to rate her so far. She will surely be tried against males sooner rather than later and has the size to do well against them.
HURRICANE FLY AS GOOD AS EVER BUT SO IS GO NATIVE
HURRICANE FLY (42) demonstrated once more how a top class horse can make up for lost time in a slow run race when winning the Morgiana Hurdle. He clocked a slightly slower final time than they went in the good handicap hurdle on the same card but came home from the second last 4.4 seconds faster. When I adjust my speed rating for this tremendous finishing sprint it suggests Hurricane Fly is just as good as ever.
The reason Hurricane Fly ran so fast in the closing stages is that he was being pushed hard by GO NATIVE (42) when his rival fell at the last. He'd built up so much momentum that he barely slowed down at all on the relatively short run in.
The big question is whether Go Native would have beaten Hurricane Fly if he'd stood up.
There's no question that Go Native was moving better than Hurricane Fly when he fell. Ruby Walsh was pushing away on Hurricane Fly while Paul Carberry was merely nudging Go Native to keep tabs on him. Punters clearly felt Go Native was posed to pass the leader. This is shown by the fact he was trading at 1.71 when he fell as opposed to 2.00 for Hurricane Fly. Personally I'm rather confident Go Native would have got up to win by a neck or half a length had he stood up.
The reason Go Native fell was that jockey Paul Carberry was understandably delaying asking his mount for everything until jumping the last. This meant he was about a length behind approaching the obstacle.
Unfortunately due to the flat out sprint from two out there wasn't much time for Go Native to think about when to launch himself at the final hurdle. So he took his cue from Hurricane Run and jumped a few nanoseconds later even though he was a length behind and should have waited a bit. This caused him to land on top of the last hurdle and crumple to a fall. Seeing that his last run over jumps was back in March 2010 I think we can forgive him this lapse of judgement.
I can't see how you can argue Hurricane Fly ran below form due to being short of fitness on his seasonal debut. He's won Grade 1's on his last two seasonal debuts. Besides the slow early pace meant the race was not a serious test of his fitness. I think we just have to accept that Go Native is probably just a little bit better than him at this stage of their careers.
I don't think there's much point asking this brilliant pair to face off again before the Champion Hurdle. The likely ensuing duel could ensure they both have too hard a race to recover from quickly. So, seeing that Hurricane Fly's connections have nominated the Istabraq Hurdle over Christmas as his next race, it's surely logical for Go Native's team to go with their original plan of tackling the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. This should ensure both horses have a good shot of gaining an easy, confidence boosting win next time.
Given what happened in the Morgiana Hurdle I just cannot understand why Hurricane Fly is now favourite for the Champion Hurdle while Go Native is 20-1. No doubt the difference in odds will narrow if things go as planned for both horses. But the stats for the Champion Hurdle suggest neither one is likely to win the big race.
The statistics for the Champion Hurdle are pretty strong:
* Seventeen of the last eighteen Champion Hurdle winners reached the first four at the last Cheltenham Festival - unless they hadn’t made their first NH start at that time or had won a Grade 1 at Cheltenham since.
* The last seventeen Champion Hurdle winners won at least half their completed hurdle starts, or half their last ten or fourteen starts in total (flat and jump).
* In the last 24 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 14 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 14 reached the first three. If the same proportion of Champion Hurdle winners have attempted repeat wins in non-consecutive years since the race was first run then there have been 47 attempts for just a single win (Comedy Of Errors in 1975)
* The stats say it's very difficult for a horse less than six years of age to be competitive in the Champion Hurdle. Since See You Then won the Champion Hurdle back in 1985 only one horse that young has taken the big race even though 80 have tried.
If these stats are any guide the Champion Hurdle concerns just four horses: Cinders And Ashes, Darlan, Montbazon and Rock On Ruby.
Rock On Ruby may seem the obvious choice as he won the Champion Hurdle last year. However some more stats suggest a bit of caution about his chances.
For starters, here is the record of Champion Hurdle winners that have attempted to repeat their wins in the big race the following year over the last fourty years;
2012 Hurricane Fly third
2010 Punjabi ninth
2009 Katchit sixth
2008 Sublimity fourth
2007 Brave Inca second
2006 Hardy Eustace third
2005 Hardy Eustace WON
2004 Rooster Booster second
2003 Hors La Loi III left
2000 Istabraq WON
1999 Istabraq WON
1997 Collier Bay pulled up
1996 Alderbrook second
1994 Granville Again seventh
1992 Morley Street sixth
1990 Beech Road fourth
1989 Celtic Shot third
1987 See You Then WON
1986 See You Then WON
1983 For Auction third
1981 Sea Pigeon WON
1980 Monksfield second
1979 Monksfield WON
1978 Night Nurse third
1977 Night Nurse WON
1974 Comedy Of Errors second
1972 Bula WON
1971 Persian War second
1970 Persian War WON
1969 Persian War WON
At first glance this looks good for Rock On Ruby as eleven of the thirty defending Champions won again and twenty one reached the first three. However there is a bias towards younger defending champions. Eight of the seventeen that defended their titles at age seven or less scored, with thirteen of them reaching the first three. But only three of the thirteen that defended their titles at age eight or more scored. Rock On Ruby will be eight when the 2013 race is run.
I do no like the fact that new trainer Harry Fry is planning to give Rock On Ruby just two runs before tackling the Champion Hurdle - the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle.
The stats suggest this is a bad idea.
Here is the Champion Hurdle record as far back as I can check of horses aged eight or more with two or fewer previous national hunt runs that season (n.b. I‘m counting August as still being the start of the season as trainers still do):
2012 Hurricane Fly 4-6 3rd
:
2011 Dunguib 10-1 8th
Khyber Kim 12-1 9th
2010 Khyber Kim 7-1 2nd
2009 Harchibald 33-1 17th
Ebaziyan 50-1 20th
Cybergenic 250-1 pulled up
2008 Sublimity 7-1 7th
Blythe Knight 50-1 11th
Contraband 200-1 pulled up
2006 Hardy Eustace 11-2 3rd
Astonville 500-1 13th
Turnium 500-1 pulled up
2005 Back In Front 7-2 9th
Intersky Falcon 40-1 6th
Turnium 500-1 14th
2004 Specular 14-1 9th
Westender 16-1 5th
Geos 20-1 pulled up
2003 Like-A-Butterfly 13-2 10th
Landing Light 14-1 7th
Copeland 25-1 fell
2002 Istabraq 2-1 pulled up
Mister Morose 100-1 8th
Mr Cool 100-1 7th
2000 Make A Stand 33-1 12th
1998 Relkeel 14-1 9th\
1997 Large Action 7-2 pulled up
1996 Danoli 5-1 4th
Hotel Minella 10-1 9th
Land Afar 25-1 10th
Staunch Friend 66-1 8th
Boro Eight 100-1 7th
Muse 100-1 pulled up
1995 Fortune And Fame 5-1 4th
Montelado 10-1 9th
Destriero 33-1 11th
Granville Again 100-1 12th
1994 Halkopous 13-2 9th
Morley Street 16-1 pulled up
Mole Board 40-1 4th
1992 Kribensis 12-1 14th
1991 The Illiad 11-2 21st
Sondrio 10-1 20th
1990 See You Then 25-1 16th
As you can see all 45 horses as old as Rock On Ruby that had a similarly light preparation for the Champion Hurdle lost. The losers included nine previous Champion Hurdlers, only two of which even reached the first six.
In my experience older horses take more racing to get them fully fit. This, I believe, explains the above statistics.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
POSTED ON NOVEMBER 26, 2012
SILVINIACO CONTI SETS THE STANDARD FOR GOLD CUP
If you believe the official race times SILVINIACO CONTI (43) ran really slow when winning the Betfair Chase. He officially ran 3.6 seconds slower than the winner of a class 2 handicap chase over the same course and distance earlier on the card.
In fact the slow time was down to the fact that the field for the Betfair Chase stood for several seconds at the start and then almost walked towards the first fence because nobody wanted to take the lead. If you time the race from the first fence and compare it with the other two chases on the card from that point to the subsequent fences and the finish things look very different:
Qtz d tx.......Silv Cont....Mons Cad
3m ch.........3m ch.......3m 4f ch
13.26..........14.33........13.73
27.19.........28.93........28.59
39.99..........42.39........42.46
52.99..........55.46........55.93
91.33..........92.86........92.73
106.19......107.99........107.99
122.73......124.33........124.73
137.46......139.26........139.86
191.73......192.13........193.73
204.73......204.79........206.59
218.46......217.99........221.33
231.06......230.39........234.79
243.79......242.66........248.13
279.66......277.53........284.13
294.13......291.13........298.39
309.99......305.59........314.33
324.66......319.33........329.33
339.59......333.93........344.39
As you can see Silviniaco Conti didn't go fast early but did not set that slow a pace. He was never running more than about 2.5 seconds behind the handicappers in the early part of the race. He'd caught up by the eleventh fence and then powered away from them, reaching the finish 5.66 seconds ahead of the handicappers - not 3.6 seconds behind.
This kind of discrepancy happens all the time in jump races. It's basically impossible to make sense of the times horses run - flat or jumps - without sectional timing.
Now that I've got that off my chest, let me say that Silviniaco Conti jumped well, even when he picked up the pace, and he clocked a time that would win four out of five Cheltenham Gold Cups.
I was pleased to hear after the race that trainer Paul Nicholls is keen on the idea of giving Silviniaco Conti the winter off and taking him straight to the Gold Cup from this race. The horse's record says this would be a very good idea.
So far Silviniaco Conti has won nine times out of ten from March to November and lost all five times he's run from December to February.
I worry a little that Silviniaco Conti is a bit on the small side for a chaser and might get crowded into trouble in the big field that always lines up for the Gold Cup these days. But he won a thirteen runner race over fixed brush hurdles around a tight track in France so I can't see any good evidence that a big field might be a problem for him.
The stats certainly suggest Silviniaco Conti is a major player in the Gold Cup. If he goes straight to the Gold Cup from this race he will probably be one of only four or five runners that match up to what I think are the two strongest statistics for the big race, These two stats are:
* Fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase.
* The last twenty three Gold Cup winners earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 155 last time out, or on their last completed start, and that rating was within seven pounds of their highest ever. Or they earned their biggest ever Racing Post rating on one of their last two starts.
I can understand that some jump fans will be disappointed at not seeing one of the stars of the winter sport more often. I recall these sort of feelings being expressed when Best Mate and See You Then were being prepared for their hat tricks in the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Some criticised Best Mate's trainer Henry Knight for being too cautious in not running him more often while some fans called Henderson's brilliant hurdler 'See You When?' due to his infrequent appearances.
The truth is big races over jumps really take it out of a horse. It's rare for a horse to win one that has a lot of miles on the clock. As I've noted above fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences before their big win. Paul Nicholls should be applauded for doing the right thing with Silviniaco Conti.
Runner up LONG RUN (42) ran a perfectly decent race. He made no more than his now normal series of jumping errors and came there to threaten the winner in the closing stages.
I can see how you could argue that Long Run needed this outing and has a great chance of winning the King George again next time out. But I worry that the fact he has grown so much over the last two years has made him a bit slower, more one-paced and clumsy.
In this regard it's worth noting that Long Run's trainer Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record with young, lightly raced chasers in top races. Since 1996 his chasers with eight or fewer previous starts over fences have won nine times out of 91 in Grade 1 chases. Those with more than eight previous chase runs have scored only three times out of 37.
Two of those three wins were in the BMW Chase at the Punchestown Festival at a time when it was basically a bogus Grade 1 (neither winner ever won another Grade 1 or earned an official or Racing Post rating above 157). The third win was in the so-called 'replacement Gold Cup' run at Sandown during the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001. This was another bogus Grade 1 won by Henderson's Marlborough. The short head runner up was a 149 rated 12yo that lost all 23 pattern races he contested. The third had an official rating of only 145 and never won a pattern race in seven tries.
Henderson has been training since 1978 and started out with a top class string. But in his entire career the only horse I can trace that he trained to win a Grade 1 chase after more than nine previous chase starts was Remittance Man who took the Mumm Melling Chase after ten previous chase starts. However Remittance Man only beat three rivals that day, the most fancied of which fell. The runner up was a horse that never won a race worth 5000 or more and Remittance Man earned a Racing Post rating of only 145 for his win.
What the stats suggest is that when one of Henderson's top chasers has racked up more than eight or nine previous chase starts you should start looking for signs of deterioration. Long Run has now had fifteen previous starts over fences. He's lost all four times he's run in Grade 1 chases since he's had more than eight previous chase starts.
In fact the only win Long Run has scored since his Gold Cup success twenty months ago came by half a length in a five runner Grade 2 where Raceform noted "there's a strong suspicion he'd have finished second had stablemate Burton Port been asked for more of an effort earlier."
Long Run exhibited jumping problems all last season despite visiting re-schooling guru Yogi Bresner before the season started and again after the King George. His very best effort since his Gold Cup win was three lengths a mile below his lifetime best on my ratings. He's grown significantly over the last two years and I have a horrible suspicion this has reduced his ability to accelerate and jump fences effectively.
With so many smart young novices from last season around Long Run has chosen a tough season to try and stage a comeback. He can obviously still run with the best three mile chasers. But he now seems to lack the change of gear and the jumping skills to actually beat them.
When analysing the race beforehand I thought that third placed THE GIANT BOLSTER (40) had a great chance as he looked to be the sole front runner in a paceless field. I figured he'd be able to do exactly what Silviniaco Conti ended up doing - set an ordinary pace then kick for home and enjoy a big tactical advantage.
One reason I felt sure The Giant Bolster would be sent on was to avoid being asked to jump the last few fences at an increased pace. He is clearly not great at jumping fences at speed. Over less than 2m 5f or on over longer when the going stick reading was higher than 7.7 he's fallen or unseated four times out of six and made significant jumping errors the other two times. He also clearly gets stretched into jumping errors around the giant two mile oval at Newbury. There's always a point in the race at Newbury where the long straight sections and very easy turns encourage the runners to really charge at the fences. The only time The Giant Bolster even ran well at Newbury was when the ground was really slow.
Outside of Newbury, over 2m 5f plus and on ground the going stick has rated 7.7 or slower The Giant Bolster had won two from three over fences before this race. He ran second in the Gold Cup in his only loss.
However I have a saying; 'never bet on pace'. You might think it's certain a horse will be ridden in a particular way but you shouldn't bet on it happening. You need to be sure the horse you bet is actually the best in the race given the conditions. If it looks like gaining a tactical edge due to the way you think it will be run that's a plus, but it should never be your main reason for betting.
Sure enough when the entire field simply stood at the start then crawled towards the first fence The Giant Bolster's jockey did not take the obvious opportunity and kick on. He was clearly under strict instructions not to ask his mount for too much too early on the very heavy ground. As a result he raced in second place and then got stretched into a series of minor jumping errors when Siliviniaco Conti stepped on the gas from eight out.
At the seventh last The Giant Bolster scrambled over the jump, screwing sideways in the air and losing momentum. He was in with a shot of holding second until repeating the trick in more extreme fashion at the last. This time the error cost him a lot of momentum and he lost about four lengths on second placed Long Run rapidly and almost got caught for third.
A lot of chasers that are otherwise dodgy jumpers are able to get over the fences better off a lay-off. I once told this to a doctor whose speciality was muscular disorders. He told me the explanation was that the glycogen which powers a horse's 'fast twitch' muscles builds up during rest periods. It's the fast twitch muscles that are recruited when jumping a fence. So horses have more zip for jumping off a break.
Before this loss The Giant Bolster had run in three steeplechases off breaks of six weeks or more and won them all. On balance I don't think he would have beaten Silviniaco Conti if he'd been allowed to bowl along in front, but I suspect he'd have finished second.
Fourth placed WEIRD AL (40) was held up at the back. He didn't like the increase in the gallop at all and looked like finishing far behind for a long way. But eventually he got rolling on the run in and nearly got up to snatch third.
Weird Al is a fragile horse. He choked up when beaten 42 lengths in the Hennessy and burst a blood vessel when pulled up in the last two renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
However he has a tremendous record off a long lay off.
Weird Al has run in five chases and hurdles following a break of six months or more and won four.
The trouble with this statistic is that normally horses who are best fresh go well on their first TWO runs of the season and then simply require breaks of five or six weeks to run well again. Weird Al has in fact won twice after his seasonal debut. Once was on his second start and the other was off an eight week break. This makes me wary of excusing all his losses in top races simply because they were not preceded by a very long rest.
My suspicion is that Weird Al was probably still in decent shape when running in the Betfair Chase last season on his second start of the season. On that occasion I reckon it was the searching pace that Grade 1 horses can go that caused him to run a bit below the form he showed at Wetherby, finishing ten lengths third. It looked to be the same story this time around. In other words he lacks a bit of class. He looks good beating up on inferior rivals but gets put in his place when facing truly top class performers as he did in those two Gold Cups and the last two renewals of this race.
I reckon Weird Al will do fine next time out and with five week plus breaks thereafter as long as he avoids very testing tracks such as Cheltenham and giant two mile ovals such as Newbury and Aintree where a fierce gallop can build up. Those sort of courses probably put too much strain on his breathing. Otherwise I reckon he's perfectly capable of taking another Grade 2 or even a weak Grade 1. If he were mine I'd be looking at the Lexus followed by the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown then the Betfred Bowl at Aintree. If one of those races comes up weak he'd have a real shot of winning a Grade 1.
POUNGACH AND SUPER DUTY ARE SMART
After he'd got outpaced when the gallop quickened then stayed on strongly over 2m 5f I suggested that POUNGACH (40) needed to be stepped up to three miles.
He only had a furlong longer to cover at Haydock last Friday. But the near bottomless ground made it ride like more like three miles. Even so Poungach still hit a flat spot when the race began in earnest though this time he didn't lose any ground.
All through the early stages Poungach just lobbed along at the back, moving better than anything. From five out he was asked to pick up ground but had to be rowed along to do so. He was in the lead by four out, needing to be kept up to his work all the while by Ruby Walsh. The runner up Super Duty tried to get on terms from three out and the pair began to open up a rapidly widening margin on their pursuers from there.
Poungach went through the top of the second last without losing much momentum. Then running up to the last it looked like Super Duty might catch him until Walsh asked Poungach for a big jump, got it, and then pushed his mount out as his superior stamina enabled him to finish a bit stronger than his rival to score by 2.25 lengths. It was a further 28 lengths back to the third.
The time was really fast. They covered the last two miles 1.9 seconds faster than the winner took in the two mile chase on the same card - despite having run even faster for the first six furlongs. There's no question it was a Grade 1 performance for a novice chaser.
Trainer Paul Nicholls seemed remarkably unambitious about immediate future plans for Poungach in the post race interview but did tell us something about why the horse always seems to hit a flat spot when the race for home begins. He said "We put cheekpieces on Poungach to sharpen him up a bit as he is a bit lazy - he has a lot of ability but he idles, but I think he will go forward and make a nice staying chaser. We won’t aim too high and may find a similar race in a month’s time, but he is in at Newbury on Thursday and Friday and if they cut up it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran again."
I can see why Nicholls might steer Poungach away from the Feltham. The horse clearly stays very well and will probably do best in the long run over three and a quarter miles plus around a galloping track. The RSA Chase would be more his cup of tea and he'd be a cert if he ran in the National Hunt Chase over four miles.
I have to say I'm now getting rather interested to see what Paul Nicholls has lined up for the Feltham. If he's not going to run Poungach then he must have something pretty darned special at home to run instead. I can't figure out an obvious candidate from his novice hurdlers of last season or the novice chasers he's run this term. So assume he must have some smart French horse he's imported or perhaps an ex point to pointer that's going to be seen out soon.
Runner up SUPER DUTY (39) is more of a Feltham sort as he's clearly more pacey and has shown himself to be fully effective over two and a half miles. In fact if he hadn't fallen in one race and bumped into the brilliant Simonsig in another he'd have won all five times he's run two and a half miles.
Super Duty's trainer Donald McCain said after the race "Super Duty ran a mighty race. It wasn’t his ground, he isn’t as effective on it. He wants to bowl along at 2m4f or even 3m." That jibes with my impressions. Even though he clearly acts on heavy ground Super Duty runs as though he'd do better on a faster surface that allows him to fully employ his powers of acceleration. I like the fact he always seems to run his race whatever the conditions. That's a sure sign of class. If he goes for the Feltham I'd have to give him a shot against the likely warm favourite Dynaste.
CAPTAIN CHRIS MAY BE HARD TO PLACE
CAPTAIN CHRIS (41) was rather reminiscent of former chasing star Racing Demon as he was steered towards the innermost wing of every fence when winning the Grade 2 Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot. This was clearly aimed at correcting his habit of jumping to his right, and it succeeded, just as it did with Racing Demon.
The early pace set by Ghizao wasn't that great but became significantly faster when Captain Chris took up the running around halfway. Captain Chris then kept going strongly until tiring from the omitted second last. But by then he'd run his remaining rivals ragged and they were too tired to mount a challenge.
Captain Chris was hesitant at two of the jumps and lost ground as a result but never made a serious jumping error. However I'd be cautious about his chances in a big field where he might well get crowded into being too cautious about his jumping.
The other obvious caveat, given the way he tired, is stamina. Captain Chris didn't quite get the three miles when tiring quite badly late to be 18.5 lengths third in the King George last year. That race is a logical target once more. But he was around four lengths a mile below his best on my ratings in the race last year, and I see no reason why he should improve on that this time around.
From now on Captain Chris's connections face the same problem Racing Demon's used to. Namely that of finding Grade 1 and Grade 2 two and a half mile chases for him to run in. There are very few such contests, especially in Britain. The only decent prize he can really shoot for is the Ascot Chase, and that is 2m 6f - so there has to be a doubt about him lasting the distance.
That said, it could well be Captain Chris will be perfectly fine cutting back to two miles for races like Punchestown's Champion Chase or Sandown's Celebration Chase. After all if one half length loss in a Grade 1 had gone his way he'd have won all five times he's run less than three miles on a right handed track over hurdles or fences.
Runner up FOR NON STOP (39) chugged on to just get up for second in a slow motion finish for the runner up spot. He probably would have run just as fast as he had on his seasonal debut but for a blunder at the seventh, so it seems he can hold his form for more than one run without a break.
However I think I should repeat that For Non Stop has yet to win a race when his previous outing was less than 48 days before. So I'd be wary of betting him in any future race this season unless he's had that sort of rest. I still think he could just about stay three miles given the way he's been staying on. He did after all win a point to point over three miles. Right now though I think he's in need of a rest.
Third placed GHIZAO (39) ran up to his best though finishing rather tired. He does seem best on his first two starts of the season and with breaks of five weeks plus thereafter. So I think he now needs a rest as well.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW (31) tired rapidly in the closing stages to get beat over twenty lengths. After he'd clocked an astonishingly slow time when winning the Grade 1 Melling Chase over two and a half miles at Aintree last year I noted that I would be wary of taking the run as evidence Finian's Rainbow really stays two and a half miles. That win was against out of form rivals at the end of the season on fast ground around a tight track. The time Finian's Rainbow clocked only earned him a rating of 35 from me. That's barely good enough to win an average class 3 event.
Finian's Rainbow remains smart around two miles. The only two times he's lost over the distance in ten tries came in very strongly run races on stiff tracks where he tired late and finished second in Grade 1 contests. If he goes back to two miles I'll be interested in his chances against any opposition. If he's kept to longer trips I'll oppose him with confidence.
WILLIAM'S WISHES A SMART TWO MILER
WILLIAM'S WISHES (40) clocked a solid Grade 2 class time when coming from behind a strong pace to win the valuable Carey Group handicap chase at Ascot. He won the race comfortably. So there must be a decent chance he can run even faster.
As with many of the better two mile chasers, William's Wishes seems best on his first two runs of the season and with five week plus breaks thereafter. He has in fact won the last seven times he's been fresh in this way.
William's Wishes jumped right in a couple of his hurdles starts and has been kept to right handed tracks for his four chase starts to date. So clearly there would be a question about whether he could reproduce this sort of form on a left-handed track. But there are quite a few valuable two mile chases on right handed tracks, notably the Victor Chandler at Ascot, so I don't think that's too big a problem.
DON COSSACK PROBABLY WANTS LONGER
It's awfully hard to say just how good an easy winner is as some horses that win easily have much more in hand than others. This being so I can only guess how fast DON COSSACK (36) could have run if he'd been ridden out when scoring on his hurdling debut at Navan.
What I can say is that Don Cossack jumped big at a couple of the obstacles and hit the third last and the last and this cost him a couple of lengths. This is the norm for a horse first time out over timber. I can also say he should improve for a step up to two and a half miles and ought to have no trouble going three judged by his physique and the way he's run in his races.
The way that Don Cossack soared over a couple of the hurdles tells me that he'll probably not be at his very best till he tackles fences. Nonetheless he does look a very interesting contender for the big Grade 1 hurdle over two and a half miles at Navan in a few weeks. That run will tell us a lot more about this smart horse.
BUSTY BROWN LOOKS AN ALBERT BARTLETT PROSPECT
BUSTY BROWN (37) came through strongly in the closing stages to win the Grade 3 Monksfield Novice hurdle by two and a half lengths. I gained the impression from the win that he is a future three mile chaser. Indeed he's lost and admittedly slow run three mile Grade 3 on his previous start by just half a length.
The one run in Busty Brown's record that sticks out like a sore thumb is his 22 length loss at Limerick in October. In that race he was bang there running up to the last but lost ground rapidly from there to the finish. It looked like he didn't stay but my bet is the race came a little too soon (thirteen days) after his win at Roscommon. I say this because trainer Noel Meade said after his latest win "I was intending sending him to Cork in two weeks time for a three-mile novice hurdle but that may come a bit quick." This suggests Meade may feel his sub par Limerick run was due to returning to the races too soon.
I don't think Busty Brown is quite good enough to threaten the top novices over two and a half miles. But over three he might just be good enough to win the Albert Bartlett.
DIAKALI LOOKS A SMART JUVENILE
You will rarely see a horse win more easily than DIAKALI (37) did on his hurdling debut at Gowran Park. The Swiss Derby fourth is a strong, stocky sort that jumped well and looked as if he was simply having a schooling session all through the race.
From the fifth to the seventh Diakali stepped up the pace, running that one minute section of the race 2.4 seconds faster than the mares did in the next contest. This show of speed soon had his rivals in trouble and he was able to simply coast clear up the straight with his jockey sitting motionless as he went steadily further clear.
The time Diakali ran only merits a rating of 28 from me. But I feel pretty sure he could have sustained the increased mid race speed he showed till a minute before the end of the race if only there'd been something to make a race of it with him. I've built that assumption into my rating which suggests he's likely to prove one of the better juvenile hurdlers.
Diakali showed some smart form in France and was a close fourth in the Swiss Derby which is invariably as good as a British or Irish Listed race. He does show a little knee action but the Swiss race was run on fast ground, so I'm not anticipating any problems with him handling a quicker surface.
HIDDEN CYCLONE STILL HARD TO ASSESS
HIDDEN CYCLONE (38) is a horse I've had trouble assessing for ages. He's won nine of his eleven races, most often with a bit in hand, earning ratings in the 37-39 range from me. He did that again when jumping well to beat the useful yardstick Call The Police nearly five lengths in a Gowran Park novice chase.
I don't know just how good Hidden Cyclone is. My suspicion is that he's not going to stay three miles and lacks the acceleration to beat the very best chasers. But that can only be speculation at this stage. So I welcome the fact that he's entered in the John Durkan against experienced chasers and his trainer is talking about running in the Lexus. Either of those two events should give us a lot more insight into this win machine.
SILVINIACO CONTI SETS THE STANDARD FOR GOLD CUP
If you believe the official race times SILVINIACO CONTI (43) ran really slow when winning the Betfair Chase. He officially ran 3.6 seconds slower than the winner of a class 2 handicap chase over the same course and distance earlier on the card.
In fact the slow time was down to the fact that the field for the Betfair Chase stood for several seconds at the start and then almost walked towards the first fence because nobody wanted to take the lead. If you time the race from the first fence and compare it with the other two chases on the card from that point to the subsequent fences and the finish things look very different:
Qtz d tx.......Silv Cont....Mons Cad
3m ch.........3m ch.......3m 4f ch
13.26..........14.33........13.73
27.19.........28.93........28.59
39.99..........42.39........42.46
52.99..........55.46........55.93
91.33..........92.86........92.73
106.19......107.99........107.99
122.73......124.33........124.73
137.46......139.26........139.86
191.73......192.13........193.73
204.73......204.79........206.59
218.46......217.99........221.33
231.06......230.39........234.79
243.79......242.66........248.13
279.66......277.53........284.13
294.13......291.13........298.39
309.99......305.59........314.33
324.66......319.33........329.33
339.59......333.93........344.39
As you can see Silviniaco Conti didn't go fast early but did not set that slow a pace. He was never running more than about 2.5 seconds behind the handicappers in the early part of the race. He'd caught up by the eleventh fence and then powered away from them, reaching the finish 5.66 seconds ahead of the handicappers - not 3.6 seconds behind.
This kind of discrepancy happens all the time in jump races. It's basically impossible to make sense of the times horses run - flat or jumps - without sectional timing.
Now that I've got that off my chest, let me say that Silviniaco Conti jumped well, even when he picked up the pace, and he clocked a time that would win four out of five Cheltenham Gold Cups.
I was pleased to hear after the race that trainer Paul Nicholls is keen on the idea of giving Silviniaco Conti the winter off and taking him straight to the Gold Cup from this race. The horse's record says this would be a very good idea.
So far Silviniaco Conti has won nine times out of ten from March to November and lost all five times he's run from December to February.
I worry a little that Silviniaco Conti is a bit on the small side for a chaser and might get crowded into trouble in the big field that always lines up for the Gold Cup these days. But he won a thirteen runner race over fixed brush hurdles around a tight track in France so I can't see any good evidence that a big field might be a problem for him.
The stats certainly suggest Silviniaco Conti is a major player in the Gold Cup. If he goes straight to the Gold Cup from this race he will probably be one of only four or five runners that match up to what I think are the two strongest statistics for the big race, These two stats are:
* Fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase.
* The last twenty three Gold Cup winners earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 155 last time out, or on their last completed start, and that rating was within seven pounds of their highest ever. Or they earned their biggest ever Racing Post rating on one of their last two starts.
I can understand that some jump fans will be disappointed at not seeing one of the stars of the winter sport more often. I recall these sort of feelings being expressed when Best Mate and See You Then were being prepared for their hat tricks in the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Some criticised Best Mate's trainer Henry Knight for being too cautious in not running him more often while some fans called Henderson's brilliant hurdler 'See You When?' due to his infrequent appearances.
The truth is big races over jumps really take it out of a horse. It's rare for a horse to win one that has a lot of miles on the clock. As I've noted above fifteen of the last sixteen Gold Cup winners had run 13 or fewer times over fences before their big win. Paul Nicholls should be applauded for doing the right thing with Silviniaco Conti.
Runner up LONG RUN (42) ran a perfectly decent race. He made no more than his now normal series of jumping errors and came there to threaten the winner in the closing stages.
I can see how you could argue that Long Run needed this outing and has a great chance of winning the King George again next time out. But I worry that the fact he has grown so much over the last two years has made him a bit slower, more one-paced and clumsy.
In this regard it's worth noting that Long Run's trainer Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record with young, lightly raced chasers in top races. Since 1996 his chasers with eight or fewer previous starts over fences have won nine times out of 91 in Grade 1 chases. Those with more than eight previous chase runs have scored only three times out of 37.
Two of those three wins were in the BMW Chase at the Punchestown Festival at a time when it was basically a bogus Grade 1 (neither winner ever won another Grade 1 or earned an official or Racing Post rating above 157). The third win was in the so-called 'replacement Gold Cup' run at Sandown during the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001. This was another bogus Grade 1 won by Henderson's Marlborough. The short head runner up was a 149 rated 12yo that lost all 23 pattern races he contested. The third had an official rating of only 145 and never won a pattern race in seven tries.
Henderson has been training since 1978 and started out with a top class string. But in his entire career the only horse I can trace that he trained to win a Grade 1 chase after more than nine previous chase starts was Remittance Man who took the Mumm Melling Chase after ten previous chase starts. However Remittance Man only beat three rivals that day, the most fancied of which fell. The runner up was a horse that never won a race worth 5000 or more and Remittance Man earned a Racing Post rating of only 145 for his win.
What the stats suggest is that when one of Henderson's top chasers has racked up more than eight or nine previous chase starts you should start looking for signs of deterioration. Long Run has now had fifteen previous starts over fences. He's lost all four times he's run in Grade 1 chases since he's had more than eight previous chase starts.
In fact the only win Long Run has scored since his Gold Cup success twenty months ago came by half a length in a five runner Grade 2 where Raceform noted "there's a strong suspicion he'd have finished second had stablemate Burton Port been asked for more of an effort earlier."
Long Run exhibited jumping problems all last season despite visiting re-schooling guru Yogi Bresner before the season started and again after the King George. His very best effort since his Gold Cup win was three lengths a mile below his lifetime best on my ratings. He's grown significantly over the last two years and I have a horrible suspicion this has reduced his ability to accelerate and jump fences effectively.
With so many smart young novices from last season around Long Run has chosen a tough season to try and stage a comeback. He can obviously still run with the best three mile chasers. But he now seems to lack the change of gear and the jumping skills to actually beat them.
When analysing the race beforehand I thought that third placed THE GIANT BOLSTER (40) had a great chance as he looked to be the sole front runner in a paceless field. I figured he'd be able to do exactly what Silviniaco Conti ended up doing - set an ordinary pace then kick for home and enjoy a big tactical advantage.
One reason I felt sure The Giant Bolster would be sent on was to avoid being asked to jump the last few fences at an increased pace. He is clearly not great at jumping fences at speed. Over less than 2m 5f or on over longer when the going stick reading was higher than 7.7 he's fallen or unseated four times out of six and made significant jumping errors the other two times. He also clearly gets stretched into jumping errors around the giant two mile oval at Newbury. There's always a point in the race at Newbury where the long straight sections and very easy turns encourage the runners to really charge at the fences. The only time The Giant Bolster even ran well at Newbury was when the ground was really slow.
Outside of Newbury, over 2m 5f plus and on ground the going stick has rated 7.7 or slower The Giant Bolster had won two from three over fences before this race. He ran second in the Gold Cup in his only loss.
However I have a saying; 'never bet on pace'. You might think it's certain a horse will be ridden in a particular way but you shouldn't bet on it happening. You need to be sure the horse you bet is actually the best in the race given the conditions. If it looks like gaining a tactical edge due to the way you think it will be run that's a plus, but it should never be your main reason for betting.
Sure enough when the entire field simply stood at the start then crawled towards the first fence The Giant Bolster's jockey did not take the obvious opportunity and kick on. He was clearly under strict instructions not to ask his mount for too much too early on the very heavy ground. As a result he raced in second place and then got stretched into a series of minor jumping errors when Siliviniaco Conti stepped on the gas from eight out.
At the seventh last The Giant Bolster scrambled over the jump, screwing sideways in the air and losing momentum. He was in with a shot of holding second until repeating the trick in more extreme fashion at the last. This time the error cost him a lot of momentum and he lost about four lengths on second placed Long Run rapidly and almost got caught for third.
A lot of chasers that are otherwise dodgy jumpers are able to get over the fences better off a lay-off. I once told this to a doctor whose speciality was muscular disorders. He told me the explanation was that the glycogen which powers a horse's 'fast twitch' muscles builds up during rest periods. It's the fast twitch muscles that are recruited when jumping a fence. So horses have more zip for jumping off a break.
Before this loss The Giant Bolster had run in three steeplechases off breaks of six weeks or more and won them all. On balance I don't think he would have beaten Silviniaco Conti if he'd been allowed to bowl along in front, but I suspect he'd have finished second.
Fourth placed WEIRD AL (40) was held up at the back. He didn't like the increase in the gallop at all and looked like finishing far behind for a long way. But eventually he got rolling on the run in and nearly got up to snatch third.
Weird Al is a fragile horse. He choked up when beaten 42 lengths in the Hennessy and burst a blood vessel when pulled up in the last two renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
However he has a tremendous record off a long lay off.
Weird Al has run in five chases and hurdles following a break of six months or more and won four.
The trouble with this statistic is that normally horses who are best fresh go well on their first TWO runs of the season and then simply require breaks of five or six weeks to run well again. Weird Al has in fact won twice after his seasonal debut. Once was on his second start and the other was off an eight week break. This makes me wary of excusing all his losses in top races simply because they were not preceded by a very long rest.
My suspicion is that Weird Al was probably still in decent shape when running in the Betfair Chase last season on his second start of the season. On that occasion I reckon it was the searching pace that Grade 1 horses can go that caused him to run a bit below the form he showed at Wetherby, finishing ten lengths third. It looked to be the same story this time around. In other words he lacks a bit of class. He looks good beating up on inferior rivals but gets put in his place when facing truly top class performers as he did in those two Gold Cups and the last two renewals of this race.
I reckon Weird Al will do fine next time out and with five week plus breaks thereafter as long as he avoids very testing tracks such as Cheltenham and giant two mile ovals such as Newbury and Aintree where a fierce gallop can build up. Those sort of courses probably put too much strain on his breathing. Otherwise I reckon he's perfectly capable of taking another Grade 2 or even a weak Grade 1. If he were mine I'd be looking at the Lexus followed by the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown then the Betfred Bowl at Aintree. If one of those races comes up weak he'd have a real shot of winning a Grade 1.
POUNGACH AND SUPER DUTY ARE SMART
After he'd got outpaced when the gallop quickened then stayed on strongly over 2m 5f I suggested that POUNGACH (40) needed to be stepped up to three miles.
He only had a furlong longer to cover at Haydock last Friday. But the near bottomless ground made it ride like more like three miles. Even so Poungach still hit a flat spot when the race began in earnest though this time he didn't lose any ground.
All through the early stages Poungach just lobbed along at the back, moving better than anything. From five out he was asked to pick up ground but had to be rowed along to do so. He was in the lead by four out, needing to be kept up to his work all the while by Ruby Walsh. The runner up Super Duty tried to get on terms from three out and the pair began to open up a rapidly widening margin on their pursuers from there.
Poungach went through the top of the second last without losing much momentum. Then running up to the last it looked like Super Duty might catch him until Walsh asked Poungach for a big jump, got it, and then pushed his mount out as his superior stamina enabled him to finish a bit stronger than his rival to score by 2.25 lengths. It was a further 28 lengths back to the third.
The time was really fast. They covered the last two miles 1.9 seconds faster than the winner took in the two mile chase on the same card - despite having run even faster for the first six furlongs. There's no question it was a Grade 1 performance for a novice chaser.
Trainer Paul Nicholls seemed remarkably unambitious about immediate future plans for Poungach in the post race interview but did tell us something about why the horse always seems to hit a flat spot when the race for home begins. He said "We put cheekpieces on Poungach to sharpen him up a bit as he is a bit lazy - he has a lot of ability but he idles, but I think he will go forward and make a nice staying chaser. We won’t aim too high and may find a similar race in a month’s time, but he is in at Newbury on Thursday and Friday and if they cut up it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran again."
I can see why Nicholls might steer Poungach away from the Feltham. The horse clearly stays very well and will probably do best in the long run over three and a quarter miles plus around a galloping track. The RSA Chase would be more his cup of tea and he'd be a cert if he ran in the National Hunt Chase over four miles.
I have to say I'm now getting rather interested to see what Paul Nicholls has lined up for the Feltham. If he's not going to run Poungach then he must have something pretty darned special at home to run instead. I can't figure out an obvious candidate from his novice hurdlers of last season or the novice chasers he's run this term. So assume he must have some smart French horse he's imported or perhaps an ex point to pointer that's going to be seen out soon.
Runner up SUPER DUTY (39) is more of a Feltham sort as he's clearly more pacey and has shown himself to be fully effective over two and a half miles. In fact if he hadn't fallen in one race and bumped into the brilliant Simonsig in another he'd have won all five times he's run two and a half miles.
Super Duty's trainer Donald McCain said after the race "Super Duty ran a mighty race. It wasn’t his ground, he isn’t as effective on it. He wants to bowl along at 2m4f or even 3m." That jibes with my impressions. Even though he clearly acts on heavy ground Super Duty runs as though he'd do better on a faster surface that allows him to fully employ his powers of acceleration. I like the fact he always seems to run his race whatever the conditions. That's a sure sign of class. If he goes for the Feltham I'd have to give him a shot against the likely warm favourite Dynaste.
CAPTAIN CHRIS MAY BE HARD TO PLACE
CAPTAIN CHRIS (41) was rather reminiscent of former chasing star Racing Demon as he was steered towards the innermost wing of every fence when winning the Grade 2 Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot. This was clearly aimed at correcting his habit of jumping to his right, and it succeeded, just as it did with Racing Demon.
The early pace set by Ghizao wasn't that great but became significantly faster when Captain Chris took up the running around halfway. Captain Chris then kept going strongly until tiring from the omitted second last. But by then he'd run his remaining rivals ragged and they were too tired to mount a challenge.
Captain Chris was hesitant at two of the jumps and lost ground as a result but never made a serious jumping error. However I'd be cautious about his chances in a big field where he might well get crowded into being too cautious about his jumping.
The other obvious caveat, given the way he tired, is stamina. Captain Chris didn't quite get the three miles when tiring quite badly late to be 18.5 lengths third in the King George last year. That race is a logical target once more. But he was around four lengths a mile below his best on my ratings in the race last year, and I see no reason why he should improve on that this time around.
From now on Captain Chris's connections face the same problem Racing Demon's used to. Namely that of finding Grade 1 and Grade 2 two and a half mile chases for him to run in. There are very few such contests, especially in Britain. The only decent prize he can really shoot for is the Ascot Chase, and that is 2m 6f - so there has to be a doubt about him lasting the distance.
That said, it could well be Captain Chris will be perfectly fine cutting back to two miles for races like Punchestown's Champion Chase or Sandown's Celebration Chase. After all if one half length loss in a Grade 1 had gone his way he'd have won all five times he's run less than three miles on a right handed track over hurdles or fences.
Runner up FOR NON STOP (39) chugged on to just get up for second in a slow motion finish for the runner up spot. He probably would have run just as fast as he had on his seasonal debut but for a blunder at the seventh, so it seems he can hold his form for more than one run without a break.
However I think I should repeat that For Non Stop has yet to win a race when his previous outing was less than 48 days before. So I'd be wary of betting him in any future race this season unless he's had that sort of rest. I still think he could just about stay three miles given the way he's been staying on. He did after all win a point to point over three miles. Right now though I think he's in need of a rest.
Third placed GHIZAO (39) ran up to his best though finishing rather tired. He does seem best on his first two starts of the season and with breaks of five weeks plus thereafter. So I think he now needs a rest as well.
FINIAN'S RAINBOW (31) tired rapidly in the closing stages to get beat over twenty lengths. After he'd clocked an astonishingly slow time when winning the Grade 1 Melling Chase over two and a half miles at Aintree last year I noted that I would be wary of taking the run as evidence Finian's Rainbow really stays two and a half miles. That win was against out of form rivals at the end of the season on fast ground around a tight track. The time Finian's Rainbow clocked only earned him a rating of 35 from me. That's barely good enough to win an average class 3 event.
Finian's Rainbow remains smart around two miles. The only two times he's lost over the distance in ten tries came in very strongly run races on stiff tracks where he tired late and finished second in Grade 1 contests. If he goes back to two miles I'll be interested in his chances against any opposition. If he's kept to longer trips I'll oppose him with confidence.
WILLIAM'S WISHES A SMART TWO MILER
WILLIAM'S WISHES (40) clocked a solid Grade 2 class time when coming from behind a strong pace to win the valuable Carey Group handicap chase at Ascot. He won the race comfortably. So there must be a decent chance he can run even faster.
As with many of the better two mile chasers, William's Wishes seems best on his first two runs of the season and with five week plus breaks thereafter. He has in fact won the last seven times he's been fresh in this way.
William's Wishes jumped right in a couple of his hurdles starts and has been kept to right handed tracks for his four chase starts to date. So clearly there would be a question about whether he could reproduce this sort of form on a left-handed track. But there are quite a few valuable two mile chases on right handed tracks, notably the Victor Chandler at Ascot, so I don't think that's too big a problem.
DON COSSACK PROBABLY WANTS LONGER
It's awfully hard to say just how good an easy winner is as some horses that win easily have much more in hand than others. This being so I can only guess how fast DON COSSACK (36) could have run if he'd been ridden out when scoring on his hurdling debut at Navan.
What I can say is that Don Cossack jumped big at a couple of the obstacles and hit the third last and the last and this cost him a couple of lengths. This is the norm for a horse first time out over timber. I can also say he should improve for a step up to two and a half miles and ought to have no trouble going three judged by his physique and the way he's run in his races.
The way that Don Cossack soared over a couple of the hurdles tells me that he'll probably not be at his very best till he tackles fences. Nonetheless he does look a very interesting contender for the big Grade 1 hurdle over two and a half miles at Navan in a few weeks. That run will tell us a lot more about this smart horse.
BUSTY BROWN LOOKS AN ALBERT BARTLETT PROSPECT
BUSTY BROWN (37) came through strongly in the closing stages to win the Grade 3 Monksfield Novice hurdle by two and a half lengths. I gained the impression from the win that he is a future three mile chaser. Indeed he's lost and admittedly slow run three mile Grade 3 on his previous start by just half a length.
The one run in Busty Brown's record that sticks out like a sore thumb is his 22 length loss at Limerick in October. In that race he was bang there running up to the last but lost ground rapidly from there to the finish. It looked like he didn't stay but my bet is the race came a little too soon (thirteen days) after his win at Roscommon. I say this because trainer Noel Meade said after his latest win "I was intending sending him to Cork in two weeks time for a three-mile novice hurdle but that may come a bit quick." This suggests Meade may feel his sub par Limerick run was due to returning to the races too soon.
I don't think Busty Brown is quite good enough to threaten the top novices over two and a half miles. But over three he might just be good enough to win the Albert Bartlett.
DIAKALI LOOKS A SMART JUVENILE
You will rarely see a horse win more easily than DIAKALI (37) did on his hurdling debut at Gowran Park. The Swiss Derby fourth is a strong, stocky sort that jumped well and looked as if he was simply having a schooling session all through the race.
From the fifth to the seventh Diakali stepped up the pace, running that one minute section of the race 2.4 seconds faster than the mares did in the next contest. This show of speed soon had his rivals in trouble and he was able to simply coast clear up the straight with his jockey sitting motionless as he went steadily further clear.
The time Diakali ran only merits a rating of 28 from me. But I feel pretty sure he could have sustained the increased mid race speed he showed till a minute before the end of the race if only there'd been something to make a race of it with him. I've built that assumption into my rating which suggests he's likely to prove one of the better juvenile hurdlers.
Diakali showed some smart form in France and was a close fourth in the Swiss Derby which is invariably as good as a British or Irish Listed race. He does show a little knee action but the Swiss race was run on fast ground, so I'm not anticipating any problems with him handling a quicker surface.
HIDDEN CYCLONE STILL HARD TO ASSESS
HIDDEN CYCLONE (38) is a horse I've had trouble assessing for ages. He's won nine of his eleven races, most often with a bit in hand, earning ratings in the 37-39 range from me. He did that again when jumping well to beat the useful yardstick Call The Police nearly five lengths in a Gowran Park novice chase.
I don't know just how good Hidden Cyclone is. My suspicion is that he's not going to stay three miles and lacks the acceleration to beat the very best chasers. But that can only be speculation at this stage. So I welcome the fact that he's entered in the John Durkan against experienced chasers and his trainer is talking about running in the Lexus. Either of those two events should give us a lot more insight into this win machine.