The Two Mile Chase thread

It is perfectly reasonable to assume that Douvan will progress from his novice season, as this is the case with almost every novice chaser.

I agree that it's too linear to raise him 17lbs, just because that's how much Fox Norton has improved, but you seem to be implying that further progression is nigh-on impossible. Whilst I think his rate of improvement is likely to be shallower than others, that's only because he starts from such a high-mark in the first place.

Douvan will have your drawers down at some point soon, I reckon.
 
similar improvement is possible, but FN had 2 races in which he proved he did it, whilst Douvan had none and he's short AP fav for the CC. It seems to me that everyone assumes he'll make an improvement. Lets not forget SS didn't improve that much from his novice year and many other good horses like Douvan stayed the same or even regressed.
 
The point is that Douvan doesn't need to improve to account for an improved Fox Norton. On all available evidence, Douvan can still beat Fox Norton - even if he himself doesn't improve.

Any further improvement in Douvan, merely puts him further and further ahead. That is why he is favourite for the Champion Chase.
 
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viking said:
Really?


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Sprinter of course did break the track record at Newbury in the Game Spirit beating older horses on the bridle - which for all Douvan's brilliance was a rather more tangible achievement .
 
Impressive as that was I'd argue his 19 length demolition of Sizing Europe in the following years QMCC represented considerable improvement


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Grasshopper said:
The point is that Douvan doesn't need to improve to account for an improved Fox Norton. On all available evidence, Douvan can still beat Fox Norton - even if he himself doesn't improve.
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FN was 11 lengths behind when at his best(just in case you try to use the Aintree form, see the finishing pos of The Game Changer). By all accounts FN now has improved at least a stone, that puts him ahead of what Douvan achieved last season.
 
viking said:
Impressive as that was I'd argue his 19 length demolition of Sizing Europe in the following years QMCC represented considerable improvement


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He was rated 8lbs short when winning the Arkle, its not that much improvement when considering a horse like FN improved more than 20 lbs on official ratings from his novice year.
 
Shame, but entirely predictable - regardless of what the market told us earlier in the week.

At least Aughex will get his UDS theory tested a bit at the weekend.
 
Aughex said:
FN was 11 lengths behind when at his best(just in case you try to use the Aintree form, see the finishing pos of The Game Changer). By all accounts FN now has improved at least a stone, that puts him ahead of what Douvan achieved last season.
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Of course, this does mean you entirely discount both TGC and Douvan improving further again at Aintree........which is the black-hole in your argument.
 
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definitely a slow start to the season with wpm in terms of his top stars being out.

be interesting to see how uds copes with sandown after his last trip over. he fair belted a couple of the fences but ruby wasn't on board.
 
Double J said:
Gods Own for me then. Good ground has proved to be Un De Sceauxs downfall in the past.
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I'm with you on that. Managed to get some 5/1 after Douvan's withdrawal before he was cut into 7/2.

UDS record on good ground over the past year or so reads 2nd,2nd & 6th. Granted that 6th was over 3m on France but the seconds were comprehensive beatings and to me he just doesn't look the same horse on good ground. Add into the mix he fairly belted a few fences around Sandown last time around and there's every reason to take him on!!

Gods Own last appearance over 2m on good ground was last April when he beat the ill fated pairing of Vautour & Simonsig.


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You know I love Dovan but quite honestly this cnnt Mullins doesn't deserve him.......I am glad some punters ate getting their money refunded but ask why..........Because the bookmaker concerned is thinking what a cnnt.

I never backed Douvan I am not that stupid but Mullins needs a kick in the goolies...Grassy you're up lol
 
Mullins never said a word to encourage anyone to back Douvan. The cnnts are the ones who tried to be clever and second guess him.

For all that UDS is 2 2 6 on good ground, without Sprinter he would be 1 1 6. He was also 5l ahead of Gods Own on good ground at Cheltenham in March. Mullins has had 17 winners from 38 runners in the last 21 days so 2/1 is a fair price.
 
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Tanlic said:
You know I love Dovan but quite honestly this cnnt Mullins doesn't deserve him.......I am glad some punters ate getting their money refunded but ask why..........Because the bookmaker concerned is thinking what a cnnt.

I never backed Douvan I am not that stupid but Mullins needs a kick in the goolies...Grassy you're up lol
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can you point out where mullins confirmed he was going? or what he's done wrong?

horses entered in a race can be pulled out at the final declaration stage yeah?

the punters that got their money back with betfred should count themselves lucky. and the firm doing it are a jokeshop looking for some easy pr.

is you bet 5/1 antepost on a horse thats likely to go off 1/3 if he runs then it's fair to assume there is a large degree of probability factored into that price that the horse might just not run!
 
Un De Sceaux's air of invincibility had clearly become apparent by the end of last season and twice he was taken on for the lead; by Special Tiara at Cheltenham and Sire De Grugy (in a change of tactics from their Clarence House run) at Sandown. Both times, he came up short, the first failing to show a turn of foot at a crucial stage despite travelling like the winner immediately prior and the other time when his jumping faltered, again when seemingly travelling best of all.

For me he travels beautifully but lacks the change of gear and on this sort of ground won't have been able to shake off his closest pursuers when push comes to shove.

Ar Mad will serve it up to him there's little doubt in that but while that could spell trouble for UDS, the Moore horses are not running well and Ar Mad's fitness must be taken on trust, especially for a race of that nature.

Now the thieving bastards have gone NRNB, albeit with rule 4 terms, I've taken the 5/1 about Gods Own because 2 miles on good ground is perfect for him and while he may prove to be better in the spring, the George horses are still in tremendous form and his Punchestown victory is the best recent form on offer.
 
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