The Two Mile Chase thread

It's certainly looked that way but we should question where does the horse who ran 15 lbs above his mark fit into your calculations.

Rated 154 Traffic Fluide has run SDG to 3/4 of a length when totally un-fancied and most likely needing the run.

Suddenly he's a 166 horse which does not make sense as SDG remains on 169 and Vibrato Valtat 161
Surely he should have been given a 168? or SDG has run below his mark on 167?
 
traffic Fluide has improved every time has run..fits in nicely when you consider the upward curve he is on..125..then 129..then 135..then 148..then 154..the another 10lb?

he looks the classic example of an improving horse to me.

with a profile like that..i would not think his last mark of 154 was the pinnacle of his ability

if you take the first two out of the race he has beaten two 160 hosses a similar distance

lets see what he does next time..

Like i've said before...i personally don't need loads of horses to frank what i know is good..with lightly raced types..yes its nice and i do like a bit of franking to puff me chest out to mesen.....but i don't sit looking at placed hosses praying like mad they run well next time..thats irrelevant to me with solid form..and is just a fallacy to me...many pundits do it..just makes me laugh a bit with established solid hosses. Lightly raced ..yes fine...but why bother what other hosses do over other trips /grounds/ race scenarios in future when you know a performance is very good on the day?
 
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Fair enough, EC1, but how can you continue to hold the position that the form is good, if it is consistently let down thereafter?

Surely you need to revisit your original assumptions about the race, and reconsider its merits? After you analyse it, you might still end-up thinking it's a good race - again, this is fair enough - but having another look is a must-do for me, if the form does not get franked. I'm not talking knee-jerk panic if the second is turned over next-time-out, but if the placed horses run a couple of times and are not in the frame, then I'm personally forced into a rethink.
 
honestly Grass..it don't bother me what other animals do on different days/races/conditions..unless its maiden races or early nov hurdles..then i will actually back the placers if i think races are good

like i said before..do you need Bolt's 100 metre races franking?..I never heard anyone yet say..i hope that guy in 2nd wins next time or it will devalue the win

or Seb Coe beating Ovett in olympic final..that race is no good..bloke in 3rd lost next time
 
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We are talking about a top 2 mile race though Grass..which isn't the whole horse population...which could be equated to a 800m or 100m race between the best runners in the country..which also doesn't include the whole human running population.....lit ooks similar to me.

If SDG runs next time..and for what could be a myriad of reasons.. gets beat..we'll be hearing..oh that Ascot form has took a knock. Its illogical..what happens one day in racing is completely different to what happens another day. Thats never happened in any athletics race i've watched..i've never heard the pundits once mention franking of form in all the years i've watched athletics..and i've certainly never heard an athletics pundit question a big race afterwards asking if its good form. There are a lot of similairities between Atletics and racing..but this aspect nevers gets a word in that sphere.

Unless we expect horses to be machines that run exactly the same every time they run..you can't pull one race down because one or two hosses don't win or run well next time. What happens sometimes is that the first race is such a big effort..it takes its toll..and every horse in the race next time runs below par..but not because the race is crap..but for exactly the opposite reason.

To me..if a horse race is truly run..and reflects the ability of those in it..thats good form. If a race isn't a true test..then maybe you question the form. But a truly run race with horses showing top form is just that.

The useful thing franking can do is give us a bit of a line on lightly run hosses when we just want a bit of confirmation of a what we think is a decent novice/maiden/Juvenile event....but to use it pull top races down just seems odd to me..as odd as doing it to Bolt or Coe or whoever else is top runner
 
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Un des sceaux will improve for the Ascot run, and that will be enough to win in march.
odds on chance for me.


moores could be the one for the exacta
 
EC1 said:
traffic Fluide has improved every time has run..fits in nicely when you consider the upward curve he is on..125..then 129..then 135..then 148..then 154..the another 10lb?

he looks the classic example of an improving horse to me.

with a profile like that..i would not think his last mark of 154 was the pinnacle of his ability

if you take the first two out of the race he has beaten two 160 hosses a similar distance

lets see what he does next time..

Like i've said before...i personally don't need loads of horses to frank what i know is good..with lightly raced types..yes its nice and i do like a bit of franking to puff me chest out to mesen.....but i don't sit looking at placed hosses praying like mad they run well next time..thats irrelevant to me with solid form..and is just a fallacy to me...many pundits do it..just makes me laugh a bit with established solid hosses. Lightly raced ..yes fine...but why bother what other hosses do over other trips /grounds/ race scenarios in future when you know a performance is very good on the day?
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He is currently rated 166 by the BHA and there lies the problem. Basically they have shoved him in at that, rightly or wrongly to justify the ratings of other which is par for the course with both the BHA and Timeform.

SDG can be in and out but he's either very good or very bad so I tend to agree it was a true run race and the third is just one of these weird results we see everyday.......The only serious challenger to the fav usually the 2nd fav ends up exhausted and is caught by an inferior animal. At the end of the day you have to ask the question and come to your own conclusion.

My take on the 2m Champion Chase is Sprinter is going to have to be in the best condition of the season to win. The Shloer chase form might be enough but Kempton wont.

I see Lydia Hysolp was talking about the race but she read my post before writing it.:whistle:

There will be no chance of plan no race riding as it were Sprinter Sacre will go for home 4 out. In my opinion Ruby's best plan is not to try and match him but to tuck in and let UDS do his own thing and hope Sprinter wilts in the closing stages. He certainly slowed from 2 out in the Shloer and that is when Ruby should be getting after him.

I am trusting NJH to do what he does best and produce his champion bang on and in the best condition he's been for 2 years and I am sticking with Sprinter Sacre.
 
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do you think Traffic fluide is still a 154 horse though Tanlic..even though he has improved double figures with every race?

I'll be very surprised if he isn't a mid 160's hoss. We'll see in time obviously. To be fair..BHA and TF have to take a positive view of TF..like i said..take out the first two and he has beaten two 160 hosses. If you saw a 3 horse..and a horse did that..would you not think he would be taking a large rise in weights..especially when you view his previous runs..its not like he is an exposed yak. He has probably got one of the classic improving profiles you will ever see.
 
Don't know EC sometimes I wonder how the handicapper fits them all in.

Traffic fluide trounced a fav of mines in Seventh Sky so I have no doubt he has ability but I would have him in reality around the low 160 mark.

Put it this way, if he was in a race with no UDS or SS against SDG and a couple of average horses and SDG had to give him 7lbs I'd back SDG every time.
 
i wouldn't Tanlic..i've seen horses in the past make the sort of strides TF has..we all have

we'll see anyway..something else to look forward to..it feels like the NH cards are now stepping up this weekend..exciting races to watch before cheltenham
 
Might not tell us too much though......heavy ground which it's unlikely to be in March so results today could end up very misleading....bit like your posts :lol:
 
He looks great, but his skeletal design - I don't know, he must have been put together on a Friday night. They've put the engine in and forgot to give him the body to carry it.
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made me laugh
 
Nicky seems to have a lot of health problems with his hosses compared to the norm..its a good job they aren't employed by anyone..the sick day bill would be immense for any employer
 
Well fook you lot :o) The Sauntering Sprinter Sacre is back in work and already he looks better than he has since his ailment.

Nico cried last year thinking the horse might never come back but today he has a smile like a Cheshire cat...

Today he said "That was awesome I have never felt so much power underneath me"

Right after he got off his Kawasaki's 2012 ZX-14R he went and schooled Sprinter Scare over 4 fences :lol:
 
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