The Two Mile Chase thread

Play nice now, Tanlic.

You're forever saying ratings don't matter - you cannae have it baith ways, pal! :lol:
 
I question why a horse trained by mullins is rated 18p for beating a 168 rated horse by 5 lengths flat to the board. Who incidentally is trained by Moore and you throw sarcastic shyte like that up.nice discussion EC it becomes you
 
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sorry T..thats how i view your posts..sorry

we had the same discussion re traffic fluide a month ago..it would pain me to have to go through it again

i hope ss wins for you..honestly do..but its not happening for me really
 
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In many many many cases in top class races the ratings don't work out and they are about as useless as a shovel of shyte when everything is carrying level weights.

You either fancy Cue Card or Vautour are you telling me the ratings would help you decide which to back?

They are handy to have in AW races where the form is so bad it often highlights horses that are very well in but if they were anywhere near accurate we would all be millionaires.

As far as I am concerned anyone who spend thei life doing figures for every race should go get some quality time instead of sitting at a computer all day.
 
Ratings are really only useful for handicaps and esoteric discussions about overall merit - that much I agree with.
 
Tanlic said:
As far as I am concerned anyone who spend thei life doing figures for every race should go get some quality time instead of sitting at a computer all day.
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yeah i know what you mean..we all think others lives are sad i suppose when they have a hobby thats of no interest to ourself....i get same feeling about people who get drunk regular and make complete cnts out of themselves on messageboads whilst in drink..and folk who get consumed with jealousy coz they aren't top dog when they want to be...we've all seen that haven't we at work for instance..through the years?

when you think about it..there are loads of things that some folk do that when they think about it..others might deem sad..my experience though is that those that deem others pursuits sad..can tend to be saddest folk around themselves.

its a funny old game is life int it?
 
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The thing is you can take a race like that and look at it two ways

VV and Sire De Grugy make it look good but Traffic Fluide and Simply Ned make it look ordinary.

The handicapper can't suddenly drop 2 horses down by 15lbs so he raises the other one up 15lbs so it all fits in nicely.

9 time out of 10 the horse he raised 15lbs never wins for about 3 years.

If I was rating UDS on that race I couldn't in my wildest dream say it was a 180p performance. 175 would have been about right.

He should win the QMCC but he's not IMO going to win it by 10 lengths or anything like it.

If MJH has Sprinter better than he was in the Shloer Chase and he claims he has then UDS is in for a big fight and if it comes down to jumping he'll lose out....That is my opinion and I am sticking to it.
 
instead of doing those figures T..i'd get some fresh air or summat..get some quality time..you don't want to be sat at that computer everyday mate.

UDS by 5 or 6 for me personally..but just remember..i don't get much quality time or fresh air..so i might be wrong..i really don't care what wins it tbh..its just another race on the figures to me..i enjoy watching these sort of races rather than having me gonads on em...the spectacle beats the gamble for me..i'll have an interest at Cheltenham obviously..but its only token bets..i just enjoy watching the races tbh.
 
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EC1 said:
yeah i know what you mean..we all think others lives are sad i suppose when they have a hobby thats of no interest to ourself....i get same feeling about people who get drunk regular and make complete cnts out of themselves on messageboads whilst in drink..and folk who get consumed with jealousy coz they aren't top dog when they want to be...we've all seen that haven't we at work for instance..through the years?

when you think about it..there are loads of things that some folk do that when they think about it..others might deem sad..my experience though is that those that deem others pursuits sad..can tend to be saddest folk around themselves.

its a funny old game is life int it?
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It was until I ran into you :lol:
 
OK EC can you correct me if I am wrong in my thinking here.

I was curious to see how reigning Champion Dodging Bullets compared to Un De Sceaux.

I thought the obvious place to start was the Clarence House chase as they both won competitive runnings of it

Both horses looked to run similar races from 4 out so I ran them side by side from when the two horses touched down 4 out...Note:- not when Somersby touched down but when Dodging Bullets touched down as he was a few lengths behind at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDNrTIyIfws

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILvJMCRrbss

Overall UDS was 6 seconds slower than Dodging Bullets but over the last 4 fences he was only a fraction slower which probably means he's the faster horse?

However all things considered if these two clash off level pegging at Cheltenham from 4 out and the ground is good I reckon there won't be much between them. Certainly not 10lbs or whatever the ratings indicate

What do you make of the two races?
 
hezz said:
Felix Yonger to go for the Queen Mother.

Mullins: "It looks like we'll let him take his chance [in the Champion Chase]. Maybe he could go there [to Japan] next year.

"He's in as good a form as he's ever been and I'd be hoping he can get in the money."
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This makes me very happy. Taken 33s NRNB the last two years for this horse in this race. Delighted he gets a chance.
 
Euronymous said:
This makes me very happy. Taken 33s NRNB the last two years for this horse in this race. Delighted he gets a chance.
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I had 33's last season too......alas not this season... :(

Love the horse and would give him a solid EW chance.
I'll have to back him from an emotional pov.
 
Tanlic said:
OK EC can you correct me if I am wrong in my thinking here.

I was curious to see how reigning Champion Dodging Bullets compared to Un De Sceaux.

I thought the obvious place to start was the Clarence House chase as they both won competitive runnings of it

Both horses looked to run similar races from 4 out so I ran them side by side from when the two horses touched down 4 out...Note:- not when Somersby touched down but when Dodging Bullets touched down as he was a few lengths behind at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDNrTIyIfws

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILvJMCRrbss

Overall UDS was 6 seconds slower than Dodging Bullets but over the last 4 fences he was only a fraction slower which probably means he's the faster horse?

However all things considered if these two clash off level pegging at Cheltenham from 4 out and the ground is good I reckon there won't be much between them. Certainly not 10lbs or whatever the ratings indicate

What do you make of the two races?
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the big problem with the comparison is the ground was slower when UDS won. When Dodging Bullets won it was -17 slow..but when UDS it was -31 slow. Thats too different to be doing head to heads really tbh. Look at the stick i got for the KG comparisons:)..and on my calcs they are near on mirror ground conditions..these two races differ ground wise by 14 lengths per mile. I might check back and see if i can find another comparison on similar ground to UDS

Even if you doubted those going alllowances though you can clearly see they are going in deeper in the straight in UDS edition.

To be fair,,under those ground conditions you would expect DB to be able to run faster later than UDS ..i get UDS 55.22 from 3rd last..DB 55.60 from 3rd last....Its fair to say DB's race was a little more solidly run.

So under the ground conditions..imo on the comparison it makes UDS look better than DB..DB has run slower late than UDS on faster ground..some of that will be probably be because they went a truer pace in DB's race..but for UDS to put that kind of finish uphill at Ascot in worse ground only confirms to me how good UDS is tbh

I'll do some fence by fence comparisons on these two races later to see what the earlier pace looks like. If they went significantly harder earlier in DB's race then that would explain why his time is slower than UDS late time. I'll post up later
 
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?uestion. How do you come to the figures 17 slow and 31 slow is that lengths over the trip?

I thought about looking back but it was a handicap not to long ago.

Pretty much come to the same conclusion as you have but can't see how you/we/anyone can possibly work out how much the early pace took out of DB as there's no real formula for that.

I have never liked DB but he did impress me somewhat when he won the QMCC as I thought he'd spit the dummy out.

That said he is trained by PN and I have a gut feeling he will run miles above his 12/1 odds and make a real race of it.

SS DB SDG UDS going at it hammer and tongs from the top of the hill I wouldn't take odds on about UDS

I think this could be the race of the meeting.
 
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i'll post the energy % in each section..you just divide teh overall time by the sectional...that removes the ground equation and lets you see which race was run at a faster or slower pace between each fence. I'll stick em up later. Its important because if DB used far greater energy early then it would explain a little of why he has run slower later than UDS. If the pace % suggest they have gone similar early/mid pace then UDS is the better horse by at least the 10 its rated higher.

The 17 slow is lengths per mile slower than middle good ground. Ascot is a course that doesn't seem to get as slow as other courses..when they would call it soft its not as soft as other courses...17 slow would be nearer G/S on the overall scale of softness for instance. Soft ground on average for all courses is approx 38 slow. The new drainage there is the reason for it i think..jusy doen't get a bog like other tracks
 
i done em

Dodging Bullets41.667.644.629.755.6239.1
UDS44.369.245.730.755.2245.1

<tbody>
[TD="width: 86"] F1 – F3 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F3 – F6 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F6 – F8 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F8 – F11 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F11 – FIN [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] Total [/TD]

</tbody>


those are the times..but to see what the pace is and remove the ground effect..they just need converting to % of overall time in each section

which looks like this in a pace comparison with ground conditions now irrelevant

Dodging Bullets17.4%28.3%18.6%12.4%23.3%
UDS18.1%28.2%18.7%12.5%22.5%

<tbody>
[TD="width: 86"] F1 – F3 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F3 – F6 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F6 – F8 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F8 – F11 [/TD]
[TD="width: 86"] F12 – FIN [/TD]

</tbody>


A remarkably similar pace scenario,,except in the first section where Dodging bullets has run 8 lengths faster pace than from F1-F3 than UDS..that will have told late on.

UDS has run the last section 9 lengths faster than DB...but he didn't burn the same early as DB..its ...swings and roundabouts. Or if took literally then UDS is 1 length better in a very loose interpretation of those times. Or you could say that beacause UDS ran faster in a longer section late than DB did in the earlier one did... then its more noteworthy for UDS

Both performances are very good..but UDS wasn't at full stretch whereas DB was...how much more was under the bonnet?

That was DB's best ever run as well..whereas UDS just churns this stuff out most times he turns out.
 
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to be honest..just watching the race i didn't get the idea that UDS was really ripping it up early..but after that first section..look how easy he does it..and look how easy he finishes the race

The Dodging Bullets performance is probably as good a performance at 2 miles that we have seen recently..apart from a in pomp SS..I think UDS has edged it by the fact he just doesn't look under pressure to turn it on.

Dodging Bullets will have to betterhis clarence house run to beat him imo.

what a race to look forward to...and the others....its like xmas day for 4 days
 
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granger said:
How do you think he will be ridden
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Good question.
Held up like God's Own was in the Arkle. It's imperative these type animals who stay further than 2 miles don't try and pace chase. I like Vibrato Valtat but almost every time he's tackled two miles he's been ridden too prominantly and has emptied - the Ascot race with UDS a perfect example of this. Imo Traffic Fluide is an inferior animal but had the perfect tactics that day.
 
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I'll admit UDS was impressive at Ascot but was Sire De Grugy at his best will be a question I will ask until the race day?

2 hard races in a month and less than 4 weeks between losing to Sprinter Sacre and the Clarence House.
 
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