The Two Mile Chase thread

granger said:
It's not of huge importance to the outcome but will it be BG or NDB as pilot on the day?
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I think it is of importance, personally, Granger. If Geraghty rides, I don't think he'll go after SS in a tight finish in the way Nico did at Kempton. Geraghty was the jock who pulled up SS when the heart problems first surfaced; he'll surely not want to potentially stress the horse again under race conditions.

I like Nico riding SS.
 
And what about last year's Champion Dodging Bullets ? Scraping home from Somersby( even though that horse does seem to produce his best in March at Cheltenham ) not enough ?
 
Tanlic said:
I'm not an expert or a vet but I have read up on it but I have had some experience of nursing horses back to health and how time off the track can affect them.

As far as a heath risk goes absolutely not Grey. What people don't seem to understand is what Sprinter Scare had is not life threatening and very common among animals, that said, mainly in dogs.

When young pups have it they appear lethargic but normally a vet won't treat them and it just corrects itself in time..

Time off the track usually blunts a horse speed and there can be little doubt it's knocked a fair bit off Sprinters...That said he should be getting better with each run which seems to be the case as he's improved big time from last year to this imo.

As far as peak fitness goes you have a point and I am certain Nicky couldn't have got him any fitter than he was at Cheltenham, certainly not at that time of the year. The money spoke volumes that day and really he's bounced back to something like his best. 5lbs 10lbs below his best? how can you judge for sure? You can look at rating but horses very seldom tun to form they are about as predictable as the weather....how on earth did Norton Coin win a Gold cup he asks

The thing is he showed absolutely no ill effects so you would have to imagine he's back to his best health wise and Nicky can get back to training him like any other horse heading to Cheltenham.

If you cast your mind back to what Nicky said. "The aim is the QMCC in March and we will work our way back from there"

With that in mind there's a good chance Nicky under did it a bit and that's why the old untouchable speed about 4 from home never came about

Wouldn't be the first time a top trainer with a top horse, Cheltenham in mind (PN Kauto Star), misjudged it and got beat or came close to getting beat.

Maybe Sprinter has just gone at the game but I doubt that very much and I really don't think of UDS as being unbeatable.

Sprinter could jump better than him with his eyes closed and that is what I think will be UDS's downfall and he simply wont be able to match Sprinters jumping.
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I would imagine that they only run him now when he's as fit as possible, which implies that we shouldn't expect too much improvement from him at the Festival. He's still a top level horse but he used to be a lot more than that.
 
BennyB said:
This will probably earn me whatever the Thai equivalent of a fatwa is from Tanlic, but I'm considering place laying SS at Cheltenham.

He'll be ridden to win the race, so that means keeping tabs on UDS. He isn't the horse he was, and this could hurt late in the race with others (not necessarily ridden to win) coming through for the places. Add in the fact that he'll be pulled up at the first sign of discomfort rather than battered in pursuit of third, and a place lay looks like a bit of value to me.
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Good angle
Gods Own is a big E/W price for a horse who will relish better ground and he left some indifferent behind him when giving UDS a tap on the shoulder in the Arkle.
 
Grey said:
I would imagine that they only run him now when he's as fit as possible, which implies that we shouldn't expect too much improvement from him at the Festival. He's still a top level horse but he used to be a lot more than that.
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"He is just as good fresh as he is very fit so I would be maybe leaning not to run again before Cheltenham". Nicky H, after SS's latest run.
Unlikely to improve for fitness, but should find 4/5 lbs more for the stiffer track - which would put him in front of UDS, even on their latest level.
 
Has UDS stopped improving though, reet? The evidence suggests perhaps not, and he too should be better at Cheltenham, given they way he bounded round in the Arkle.
 
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4 or 5lbs would put SS about same as UDS beat SDG on paper on current form..the difference is that UDS won being eased down..at Kempton SDG and SS were at full pelt

Whatever beats UDS will need to run above all current form to do so..he was only just getting going at Ascot...to beat him you would be betting on him falling to win your money..which obviously is a possiblity
 
Grasshopper said:
Has UDS stopped improving though, reet? The evidence suggests perhaps not, and he too should be better at Cheltenham, given they way he bounded round in the Arkle.
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May well be so, Grass, and I wouldn't be backing either of them, but it's too close (imo) to be writing one or t'other out of the places.
 
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Why not? We're having a discussion here aren't we?

I'm open to the possibility he'll get closer to his old peak but on balance I doubt that at his age there is further recovery to come.
 
He's only just turned the corner on his illness and he's improving bit by bit although Kempton was a bit of a set back I think it can be explained.

There's fit enough to run, fit enough to win and fit enough to fly to the moon with Nicky Henderson.

When he ran 2nd to Dodging Bullets one look at him in the parade ring, I'm told, said he wasn't 100% and he was ridden accordingly.

He looked ready to eat the others Cheltenham one friend told me and went off at 15/8 which is amazing considering he was regarded as finished by most.

When you reach peak fitness (I assume he was 100%) the only way is down.

Nicky said himself he just kept him ticking over with the Tingle Creek just round the corner bur decided to miss it and go to Kempton.

If he had made his mind up earlier he would have had time to give him a complete break and build him back up for Kempton.

At the end of the day he won and that's all that counts it's over done and finished with.

Immediately after Kempton Nicky said he would most likely go straight to Chelteham.

The reason why is obvious as is his plan.

If it all goes to plan you'll see the same Sprinter Sacre you saw at Cheltneham or even slightly better and UDS won't see the way he went.

Questions on a post card please :)
 
EC1 said:
4 or 5lbs would put SS about same as UDS beat SDG on paper on current form..the difference is that UDS won being eased down..at Kempton SDG and SS were at full pelt

Whatever beats UDS will need to run above all current form to do so..he was only just getting going at Ascot...to beat him you would be betting on him falling to win your money..which obviously is a possiblity
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Your post reminds me of what was said about Sizing Europe when he finished 5 or 6 lengths behind Big Zeb and went to Cheltenham with no chance. Went off at 10/1 and won the QMCC doing handstands.

Current form don't mean much at Cheltenham if it did we'd all be rich backing the top rated in every race

That said, to be fair, the Champion Hurdle and the QMCC do seem to hold their water better than most other races
 
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Tanlic said:
He's only just turned the corner on his illness and he's improving bit by bit although Kempton was a bit of a set back I think it can be explained.

There's fit enough to run, fit enough to win and fit enough to fly to the moon with Nicky Henderson.

When he ran 2nd to Dodging Bullets one look at him in the parade ring, I'm told, said he wasn't 100% and he was ridden accordingly.

He looked ready to eat the others Cheltenham one friend told me and went off at 15/8 which is amazing considering he was regarded as finished by most.

When you reach peak fitness (I assume he was 100%) the only way is down.

Nicky said himself he just kept him ticking over with the Tingle Creek just round the corner bur decided to miss it and go to Kempton.

If he had made his mind up earlier he would have had time to give him a complete break and build him back up for Kempton.

At the end of the day he won and that's all that counts it's over done and finished with.

Immediately after Kempton Nicky said he would most likely go straight to Chelteham.

The reason why is obvious as is his plan.

If it all goes to plan you'll see the same Sprinter Sacre you saw at Cheltneham or even slightly better and UDS won't see the way he went.

Questions on a post card please :)
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Is drink really really cheap over there? :)
 
Tanlic said:
If it all goes to plan you'll see the same Sprinter Sacre you saw at Cheltneham or even slightly better and UDS won't see the way he went.
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fairly sure i heard the time for the schloer chase was relatively slow. maybe ec1 can confirm.

reality is, barring a fall/major jumping error or him just not turning up on the day, you're drawing dead to beat UDS.
 
Nothing stopping you asking EC but I prefer doing it mysel and coming to my own conclusions

The only other chase on Shloer day was the Arkle Trial run at 11.8 sec slow Sprinter Sacre carrying 2 lbs less was 5.2 seconds faster.

The hurdle races averaged out about 8secs slower than average, so all things considered Sprinters time was in no way slow.

His time when he won the QMCC was about 2 seconds slower than in the Shloer Chase and the round was actually reported faster at the Festival 6.4ws compared to 7.1ws

Of course you might expect that as he carried 11st that day but unless you think he cant carry an extra 10lbs with ease then the horse wasn't that far of his best
and proved he's still capable of an injection of pace very few if any can live with.
 
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thanks to both

EC, the 165 time figure you came to. does that account for the weight allowance SS got?
 
Lydia Hislop makes some interesting observations about how the QMCC might be run in her column yesterday on the SL site . She remains happy with her SS NRNB .
 
JamesRB said:
thanks to both

EC, the 165 time figure you came to. does that account for the weight allowance SS got?
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yes..i adjust ratings to 11.06 over jumps to keep weight alterations to figures to minimum. Had SS carried same as UDS did Saturday then he would have earned a higher figure than 165 in the Scholer.
 
Ardross said:
Lydia Hislop makes some interesting observations about how the QMCC might be run in her column yesterday on the SL site . She remains happy with her SS NRNB .
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It read like someone who has a position to defend, which she does. How can she be happy with 4/1 NRNB when there's 5's out there right now?
 
What worries me is Vibrato Valtat is the only thing that holds that race together.

Simply Ned was beaten twice as far in the Schoer and this Traffic Fluide finishing right up SDG backside.

Add to that SDG and VV both had a hard race at Kempton and the form might not be that sound.

Can't take it away from UDS but I couldn't in my wildest dream back him at odds on to beat SS at Cheltenham.

I'd def rather back SS at 5/1 1/4 EW with a chance of a big payout for a smaller stake.
 
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