The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

hezz said:
Whatever, agree to disagree.

Fundamentally I cant see how Identity Thief's chances are reduced because he ran in (and won) a race in November.
HDB could have held off on sending him to Down Royal (and Newcastle) and sent him to the Morgiana, where lets say he'd have finished 3rd or 4th.

Going by the stats, he'd now be in a better position to win the Champion Hurdle??
I just cant have that.

I'm not totally against stats. The 5yo one carries a lot of weight (for a valid reason). This one doesn't imo.
As tanlic pointed out, If WPM sent Faugheen to the Fighting Fifth, would he be less likely to win a Champion Hurdle?

Striking a horse off your shortlist for this reason makes no sense to me.
But hey, its all about opinions. If that's what helps you land on your selection, so be it.
I simply can't see the logic, in this case.
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thats a very good post Hezz..thank you

firstly..if you have read this thread over the years..i have tongue in cheek posted the stat on previous CH threads...with smileys..so i apologise if its been taken as a gospel stat from me when i posted it a page back

i do mentally check off the winner of it based on that stat..and its not set in stone..but i do it....and you are right..its probably not up to my normal logic thinking..or anyones...but there is a little logic there with it being early in the season..and..imo is a target race for some trainers rather than a stepping stone race. I think its a tough race to win because of that and so as a nice little starter for the CH trail..i'm not convinced its a pointer to the big one

I'm not a stats follower except in my lazy moments ,,but i do feel there is something in the FF one to a degree
 
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EC1 said:
thats a very good post Hezz..thank you

firstly..if you have read this thread over the years..i have tongue in cheek posted the stat on previous CH threads...with smileys..so i apologise if its been taken as a gospel stat from me when i posted it a page back

i do mentally check off the winner of it based on that stat..and its not set in stone..but i do it....and you are right..its probably not up to my normal logic thinking..or anyones...but there is a little logic there with it being early in the season..and..imo is a target race for some trainers rather than a stepping stone race. I think its a tough race to win because of that and so as a nice little starter for the CH trail..i'm not convinced its a pointer to the big one

I'm not a stats follower except in my lazy moments ,,but i do feel there is something in the FF one to a degree
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Is the FF not just a **** race now so iits highly unlikely that a CH winner will come from it?
 
There may be something in it, look there's something to most stats to be fair.

But personally I wouldn't be hanging my hat on this one, certainly not this year with the champion hurdle looking such a weak race.
If Identity Thief doesn't win the champion hurdle, it will have little to do with the fact that he won the FF.

I didn't know about the history with the stat and previous years to be honest. Cheers for pointing that out.
Have we kissed and made up??? :lol:
 
could be:D

i've never been able to view it like that though due to the 70's editions..I remember Eckbalco winning it on the bridle.

one horse that used to run really well in it was Birds Nest..a hoss that could beat owt in it including Sea Pigeon but could never do it at Cheltenham

so even in that time there were hosses that could look really good in it..then not do it later
 
Just a reminder the FF will be at Doncaster in future, may or may not improve the quality of the field, if it does a CH winner may emerge.
 
hezz said:
There may be something in it, look there's something to most stats to be fair.

But personally I wouldn't be hanging my hat on this one, certainly not this year with the champion hurdle looking such a weak race.
If Identity Thief doesn't win the champion hurdle, it will have little to do with the fact that he won the FF.

I didn't know about the history with the stat and previous years to be honest. Cheers for pointing that out.
Have we kissed and made up??? :lol:
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some have won the CH yes...but even in the 70's you had hosses like Birds Nest winning it that couldn't do CH wins.

yes..kissed and made up:D
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Just a reminder the FF will be at Doncaster in future, may or may not improve the quality of the field, if it does a CH winner may emerge.
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it was run at Newbury when peddlers x won it...might change the make up at Donny...so i've only got this years to get through and then i can put a rider on it that its not at newcastle anymore:D
 
Diamond Geezer said:
That's easy for you to say:)
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Sorry!! No idea why input on my keyboard changed and still don't know where the language icon is on my newly installed Windows 10

Got her indoors to write Keyboard in Thai into translator..copy and pasted it into settings search GOT zilch

Eventually found the touch keyboard and changed language on that which changed back my keyboard,

Opened up settings again typed in ever word to do with windows and it found nothing no matter what you type in............Haven't tried putting I am a Microsoft guinea pig in yet
 
Cheers I actually found that earlier and none of those short cuts worked. I have just added the touch keyboard and left it there so it will do until someone comes up with a solution that works
 
EC1 said:
could be:D

i've never been able to view it like that though due to the 70's editions..I remember Eckbalco winning it on the bridle.

one horse that used to run really well in it was Birds Nest..a hoss that could beat owt in it including Sea Pigeon but could never do it at Cheltenham

so even in that time there were hosses that could look really good in it..then not do it later
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That is not quite right Bird's Nest won three Bula Hurdles so he could not quite do it at the Festival but the track was not the issue . He also won two Scottish Champion Hurdles so it does not seem that he was not a spring horse .
 
The clashes between Birds Nest and Sea Pigeon were strange to say the least but no way would Birds Nest ever beaten the Sea Pigeon fair and square by the time they were crossing swords..fookin blashemy EC :lol:

In one FF Sea Pigeon passed him on the run in and went about 3 lengths up then decided he'd done enough for the day. But for that quirk he'd have stuffed Birds Nest.

The following year Brownie road him and was told to hold him up for as long as he could. He was out the back door then absolutely flew and got there sooner than he should have so Brownie took a pull and Sea Pigeon at the same time got the 3rd last all wrong which all but looked like costing him the race, but brownie had a ton up his sleeve and easily got back into it and was biding his time to half way up the run in when Birds Nest did his old hanging trick and came right across him. Brownie blamed himself for coming up that side but as it turned out the Stewards threw Birds next out.

Wasn't the best ride Alan ever gave a horse and by the time Sea Pigeon the Champion Hurdler was at the top Beacon Light was number 2 at Turnell's and finished 3rd in the Champion in 81 in 82 BN did the same but was never a danger to Sea Pigeon

I suppose it was only fair Sea Pigeon chucking it in the FF as nowadays Birds Nest would have kept the race the following year and Brownie would have been getting his balls nursed in a local clinic.:lol:
 
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Tanlic said:
The clashes between Birds Nest and Sea Pigeon were strange to say the least but no way would Birds Nest ever beaten the Sea Pigeon fair and square by the time they were crossing swords..fookin blashemy EC :lol:

In one FF Sea Pigeon passed him on the run in and went about 3 lengths up then decided he'd done enough for the day. But for that quirk he'd have stuffed Birds Nest.

The following year Brownie road him and was told to hold him up for as long as he could. He was out the back door then absolutely flew and got there sooner than he should have so Brownie took a pull and Sea Pigeon at the same time got the 3rd last all wrong which all but looked like costing him the race, but brownie had a ton up his sleeve and easily got back into it and was biding his time to half way up the run in when Birds Nest did his old hanging trick and came right across him. Brownie blamed himself for coming up that side but as it turned out the Stewards threw Birds next out.

Wasn't the best ride Alan ever gave a horse and by the time Sea Pigeon the Champion Hurdler was at the top Beacon Light was number 2 at Turnell's and finished 3rd in the Champion in 81 in 82 BN did the same but was never a danger to Sea Pigeon

I suppose it was only fair Sea Pigeon chucking it in the FF as nowadays Birds Nest would have kept the race the following year and Brownie would have been getting his balls nursed in a local clinic.:lol:
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Remember they were two old stagers at that part of their career; Sea Pigeon had run in 73 Derby and Birds Nest a juvenile hurdler 73/74 the era of Attivo.
both horses had forgotten more about the game than most of us will ever know and spent seven/ eight seasons running at the top level, never getting an easy race either given the talent at the time. Amazing horses all.
 
Nicholls reports at Sandown preview that 'Old Guard worked absolutely dire this morning'.


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I think there has to be a bit of value in this market so had a look tonight. Don't really have a strong opinion on Annie Power, but can buy the argument that she is too short.

I like Nichols Canyon at 11/2. Happy to write off the Irish Champion run given the slog he went through at Christmas. For some reason I have been assuming that he is suited by a cut in the ground (possibly because his action is so scratchy), but watching his runs at Aintree and Punchestown he seemed to jump more fluently on a sound surface.

Top Notch also appeals to me at a bigger price. Given that last year's Triumph was regarded at the time as a solid renewal (before Peace And Co losing the plot), he might be in the mix. Looks a very slick jumper as well; I would rather Top Notch at 16's than Identity Thief at 6's. He is also not precluded from winning a Champion as he did not win the Fighting Fifth - he was second! :lol:

The New One is also slightly tempting at 13/2.... or maybe I need to see a doctor.
 
I'm quite strongly coming round to Nicholls Canyon for this. Soft side of good to soft is perfect. And like some shrewd judges here Camping Ground is the each way bet.
 
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On Tursday we are looking at these prices as a minimum.

11/4 Annie Power (likely 3/1)
6/1 TNO
13/2 NC
8/1 IT
10/1 MTOY
16/1 Top Notch
20/1 bar
 
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