The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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SlimChance said:
If the horse is not hammered in the betting then you're got it wrong, win or lose.

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This is daft.

To be successful in betting, like in stockmarket investing, you need to take advantage of inefficiencies in the market.

In betting, whether that inefficiency is recognised by the other participants in the market before the off is irrelevant - it doesn't matter if they shorten if they win. Of course you can argue that they are more likely to win when they shorten, but to claim you've got it wrong when you back a winning drifter is incorrect in my view. The horse yesterday went off at 6-1 but clearly had a better than 1 in 7 chance of winning.

Of course with investing you need the inefficiency to be corrected for you to make a profit, because you need to sell the shares, but this isn't the case when you're betting on an event.
 
Nice one again Chef. He tells it how it is does Kim Bailey.He had one at Doncaster earlier in the year that he gave a big hint to.
 
HawkWing said:
Seeing this political bet reminds me of one that I will put in a Will Win.

Seanad Referendum not to pass in Ireland at 11/10 (pp) Not sure that's the best price in town, but I think its a long odds on that it wont pass. Government bringing in the referendum only out of a misguided pre-election proposal. Lots of government support lukewarm as they are doing buddies and possibly themselves out of jobs. Public dont want it either. Something like 2/5 would be about right in my book.
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Sorry for messing up the thread with a short priced one, and far far far bigger prices became available, but a winner may be a winner.
 
BennyB said:
Of course with investing you need the inefficiency to be corrected for you to make a profit, because you need to sell the shares, but this isn't the case when you're betting on an event.
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If over 10,000 level stakes bets, the price you've taken is on average shorter than the Betfair SP in terms of percentage chance then you will be losing. This is a stone cold fact. Especially as you're probably playing early prices at 115-120 over rounds. It's basic probability and mathematics.

It's all very well saying one horse might have had a better than a one in seven chance at the off but that's one horse. To get this right consistently over many years is something that is beyond all of us on this forum I can assure you. The market is cleverer than all of us.
 
Is it fair to assume that the market becomes more and more efficient as we get closer to the off, and the betfair sp represents its peak efficiency?

Stock markets certainly don't become more efficient as time progresses.
 
"If over 10,000 level stakes bets, the price you've taken is on average longer than the Betfair SP in terms of percentage chance then you will be losing."

That doesn't make sense to me. If you'd said 'shorter' it would. I'd also have to live 10 lifetimes to place that many bets.

"The market is cleverer than all of us."

I'm very sure that at least a few members on here alter the market in which they're betting. Indeed, everyone that bets on this forum is part of that process. The two are indistinguishable. No punters - No market.
 
BennyB said:
Is it fair to assume that the market becomes more and more efficient as we get closer to the off, and the betfair sp represents its peak efficiency?
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No, not 100% of the time but I would say more than 90% and hence why I said you would need to be very very good to consistently accurately say the market five minutes before the off is wrong.

Also unlike the stock market, betting markets have a known end time so money is pooled from various sources across many continents to form it in a constrained period of time where everyone "is on" who wants to be.

Of course it isn't always right but the fact bookmakers close your accounts for backing shorteners rather than winners (the clued up ones anyway) tells it's own story. Also another reason why bookmakers liabilities are more relaxed nearer the off (try and catch a glimpse of a Ladbrokes/Hills permission to lay sheet next time you're in there).
 
I'm 100% with Gamla Stan here. I only want to back selective movers. Individual race results are not important to me because I know I'll win in the long run. Only one horse I've put up on here drifted and that was in a very competitive pattern 2yo race. I simply don't back drifters and don't need best odds guaranteed as it would probably only effect less than 10% of my bets
 
Brave putting up a horse fto over 5f against a field that all had some experience, even if it did go off favourite!
 
I'm usually pretty phlegmatic most of the time. If my horse is beaten early I tend to focus on what else is happening in the race. If it looks like being involved in the finish I tend not to get too excited.

While I've been angry at some losers (usually because they were badly ridden) it is nothing compared to how I feel (whether it's elation, gratification, etc) if I win and add to my profits for the season.

I'm not sure why my emotion wouldn't be revved by long-term profits.

I study form closely (as you know) because racing is a sport I really enjoy but I'm f&cked if I'm going to give money to the bookies for the pleasure of following it. If I'm going to follow it I'm setting out to make sure it doesn't cost me anything to do so. So many hobbies are very expensive.

I could never be an active football fan, for example, as I just don't have the spare capacity in my household budget for it. I don't think I have the spare capacity to go racing but I might allow myself one decent meeting per year, or a social gathering with mates at my local track (Hamilton).

I get a right thrill out of finding the winners of the big handicaps though.
 
I'm quite numb to it these days. I don't watch live racing, so maybe that has something to do with it.

I guess I have a small feeling of "sweet" when I scroll down the results page the next morning to see I'd backed a winner, and a feeling of "oh well" when it lost. It's pretty apathetic though.
 
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