The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
CPGagie said:
Slim, isn't that the quickest way to get closed down these days? If you're beating the SP by grabbing the tasty EP's. I've had accounts closed for that very reason. Surely, it's better to hit a few times hard, than give the game away by placing numerous small bets. They'd maybe shut you down within 48 hours playing like you suggested in your post above., and for what? Losing runs are longer grabbing just the value and not winner seeking, so you've gotta be betting smaller.

Each to their own though.
Click to expand...

A maths man would tell you that playing small edges often is better than hitting a select few hard.
 
Egg on face or what :mad:

Didn't put up two pieces of information last week which both won, so put this one up and it runs like a dog. Was supposed to be on the job, the first time Mrs Hambro has had a runner at Huntingdon and Daryl drove from Somerset right over to Huntingdon just for this ride, Can only apologise :confused:
 
"Egg on face or what"

An omelette. :)

"A maths man would tell you that playing small edges often is better than hitting a select few hard."

Not if he knew there was a limited amount of bets available for both methods with similar time restrictions to place those limited amount of bets.

Anyway, not subscribing to the SP gospel, is actually justifying your ******* thread. ;)
 
"A maths man would tell you that playing small edges often is better than hitting a select few hard."

Not if he knew there was a limited amount of bets available for both methods with similar time restrictions to place those limited amount of bets.

Anyway, not subscribing to the SP gospel, is actually justifying your ******* thread. ;)
Click to expand...

You make very valid point and one which amazes me that no "pro" has written an article about given the **** these clowns regurgitate on Twitter etc about "value" betting. There is indeed a big case to me made for raping the account with your first 4/5 bets and I've certainly done it to a few firms with septic e/w sports/racing multis etc.

What do you mean by your last point?
 
Just implying that beating the SP doesn't always mean a profit (I've had losing accounts closed just because the prices got smashed) or that the market is always right. Though obviously in theory you should, 'if you can keep your accounts going long enough'.

I worked with a guy in the 90's who basically said, "find the winners and the value will look after itself". Which is kind of what this thread is about. That being my last point.

----

There are valid points on both side of this, if you consider what Jack said in your thread about withdrawing from that new Bookie via backing and laying off losers.

You seemed happy enough to pay a small price if it means being able to get on. Smaller bets on the ones that you're sure will contract, but rather than laying off those, let em ride, then backing and laying losers to withdraw, while at the same time making sure your Bookies account is losing. Things would get tricky with larger wagers, but many smaller bets (beating the SP) and doing the above, I doubt any of them would be in a hurry to close you down.
 
CPGagie said:
Just implying that beating the SP doesn't always mean a profit (I've had losing accounts closed just because the prices got smashed) or that the market is always right. Though obviously in theory you should, 'if you can keep your accounts going long enough'.

I worked with a guy in the 90's who basically said, "find the winners and the value will look after itself". Which is kind of what this thread is about. That being my last point.

----

There are valid points on both side of this, if you consider what Jack said in your thread about withdrawing from that new Bookie via backing and laying off losers.

You seemed happy enough to pay a small price if it means being able to get on. Smaller bets on the ones that you're sure will contract, but rather than laying off those, let em ride, then backing and laying losers to withdraw, while at the same time making sure your Bookies account is losing. Things would get tricky with larger wagers, but many smaller bets (beating the SP) and doing the above, I doubt any of them would be in a hurry to close you down.
Click to expand...

I never lay off!
 
I don't either. It's the wimps way, sorry traders. :)

I was only referring to 'withdrawing by stealth', making yourself look like a mug, and the show going on and on and on. ;)
 
CPGagie said:
I don't either. It's the wimps way, sorry traders. :)

I was only referring to 'withdrawing by stealth', making yourself look like a mug, and the show going on and on and on. ;)
Click to expand...

That would be too much like hard work for me. I don't go to extremes like that and I don't keep records. I haven't the time for either. I only have one online account left but I'll always find new ways to get on. I expect to win money long term but it doesn't' stop me going skint a few times. That adds to the fun though. When you land a 5k/6k haul its very very sweet and you don't riffle it away for a rainy day, you go and ******* blow it like a man.

Otherwise you may as well be dead.
 
I think keeping records is essential myself, I know how much I've won to the penny and it doesn't take long to record each bet. I don't have time to record the Betfair SP (used to) anymore though but I know I beat it the majority of the time so not too bothered.

I agree it's nice to have a small blowout when you win a bit (booked 2 nights at Raffles in Singapore when I last had a good chop but once in a lifetime job that is) but I've also learnt not to go too mad which I've been guilty of in the past!
 
Gamla Stan said:
I think keeping records is essential myself, I know how much I've won to the penny and it doesn't take long to record each bet. I don't have time to record the Betfair SP (used to) anymore though but I know I beat it the majority of the time so not too bothered.

I agree it's nice to have a small blowout when you win a bit (booked 2 nights at Raffles in Singapore when I last had a good chop but once in a lifetime job that is) but I've also learnt not to go too mad which I've been guilty of in the past!
Click to expand...

I'd LOVE to keep records but once you know you're doing the right things does it really matter if you're winning 2k for the year or 12k?
 
SlimChance said:
I'd LOVE to keep records but once you know you're doing the right things does it really matter if you're winning 2k for the year or 12k?
Click to expand...

You could get someone in India to keep the records for you for sod all! Just email the bets over.

Certainly matters to me but keeping track of where all the money is as just as or more important as I use 4/5 different people's accounts now.
 
Gamla Stan said:
You could get someone in India to keep the records for you for sod all! Just email the bets over.

Certainly matters to me but keeping track of where all the money is as just as or more important as I use 4/5 different people's accounts now.
Click to expand...

I've had situations with lads where we don't meet for a few weeks and we don't know who owes who what. We joked about hiring an accountant to keep track of the cash swapping and we're not big punters in the grand scheme of things.
 
"you don't riffle it away for a rainy day, you go and ******* blow it like a man."
:)

I used to do that with winnings as well. Win a few K and then party for a bit and buy something. It might be my age now, but I don't really want or even need much these days. I'll get another car when the old jeep bites the dust, but honestly can't think of anything else.

I like to keep records. I've learned what I'm crap at because of them (5F sprints and middle distance+ races, along with a few courses I now avoid).

My betting money (and a small house) is in the UK, I'm in Australia. You can imagine how I felt a few years ago by looking at this historical exchange rate chart.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=AUD&view=10Y

Financially raped overnight.

I've come to accept that now, so win or lose, it stays in the UK for the time being (unless sterling strengthens dramatically or the AU dollar falls). So I couldn't really spend it if I wanted to anyway.
 
SlimChance said:
I'd LOVE to keep records but once you know you're doing the right things does it really matter if you're winning 2k for the year or 12k?
Click to expand...

I gave up a few years ago when it was obvious the accounts were just growing year on year, some years by more than others. I got to the stage where I felt I'd made it.

If I said I bet level 1pt stakes then I've got over two years' worth of betting in various accounts and that's after taking out enough to cover several holidays and part of Mrs O's car.

But having said all that, I still stop shy of upping the ante enough to try to go pro or semi-pro just in case the familiar long losing run doesn't stop.

Studying the form is my hobby. I'm happy to keep it at that.
 
simmo said:
It seems to me that there is far too much blether and insufficient posting of winners on this thread at present.
Click to expand...

I enjoy discussing betting theory with clever people, of which there are many on this forum.

Leeches like you will be given your drop of blood when its due.
 
Let me throw another spanner in the works. Dies the market every get it completely wrong and why?

Thinking about this thread it's occurred to me that I've had a few touches on horses that were monster prices on the 'juke box' at the off. A good example would be Slim Chance. She was backed from 33/1 into 7/1 in the morning but went off 20/1+ on the machine. Clearly the machine didnt factor in the early move and the backers near the off where not informed of her ability. While I think beating the Betfair SP is hugely important there must be cases where it is hugely profitable backing at Betfair SP or bear the off rather than with the books when you're informed.
 
How do you define getting it wrong?

There must be plenty of small-field races where the reverse of the market supplies the result, eg fav last, 2nd fav 2nd last, rank outsider hacks up, etc.
 
Desert Orchid said:
How do you define getting it wrong?

There must be plenty of small-field races where the reverse of the market supplies the result, eg fav last, 2nd fav 2nd last, rank outsider hacks up, etc.
Click to expand...

There are instances where there is information is available to a handful and these people are not knowledgable as to how to exploit it for the maximum. Slim Chance was reported as a gamble landed, and it was, yet it went off 20/1+ on the exchanges because the forces that drive that market were looking at data that did not include the clue to the morning money.

I hope I'm making sense. My point is there are certain horses that will be over prices on the machine regardless. I'm sometimes very slow to exploit this.
 
Weight of money drives the market.

Perhaps the 'Slim Chance Affair' was only known to a few who hoovered-up the early prices in a relatively small cash-pool, causing the morning price crash, with uninformed/sap/muppet volume thereafter forcing the price out as liquidity increased.
 
Agreed but a lot of it must be algorithm based on the show? What algorithm could work out that a nobody trainer like Jimmy Coogan had worked his filly with KP's horses?! That's only a tiny example but a friend of mine who never really bothers with early prices swears by the 'juke box' near the off for unfashionable or dark horses.

Actually we need On The Bridle on the thread. I've backed some of straight arrow Tom Hogan's horses off for their life at MENTAL prices on the machine at the off.
 
Back
Top