The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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I've found waving goodbye to my cash with a smile after a heavy loss, works wonders for my mental attitude.

I don't get the euphoric highs and depressive lows anymore, but still lose bundle loads of cash happily :lol:
 
Desert Orchid. We are all wired differently. The thrill iof a big win or loss only lasts a short time when you've been betting long enough but my point is that the lows are always lower than the highs. It's just how emotion works. The prospect of long term profit doesn't really come into it.

For example if you back a horse at 25/1 e/w in an 8 runner handicap and it SP's at 13/2 and trades odds on in running but ends up unplaced you feel aggrieved. But if you place bets like that often you'll be a long term winner but it just doesn't work that way.

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The creator of and the world's pre-eminent expert in the field of "Risk Intelligence" -- Professor Dylan Evans (Ph.D., Philosophy) -- carried out an exhaustive research over many years into what makes an "expert gambler" different.
Desert Orchid might remember me posting his test up on FF some years ago.

Anyway, Dylan Evans' research provided conclusive evidence totally in line with what Slim Chance is saying.

From New Scientist journal:
"What's the difference between an expert gambler and an ordinary gambler?
The expert gambler makes money and the problem gambler loses it. But there are emotional differences. Although they both gamble a lot and it appears to be compulsive, expert gamblers know when not to bet, they evaluate their opportunity each time.
There is also a big asymmetry in feelings about winning and losing. Problem gamblers get a buzz from winning, it's like an adrenalin rush, but they don't mind losing that much. With experts, it's the opposite: They don't get a huge kick out of winning, the pleasure is more cognitive. But they hate losing so much that they are constantly re-evaluating their decisions and finding out how to do better".

There it is; what the expert and successful gamblers have in common is that they really don't get an emotional high from winning. Their emotions are only stirred when they lose -- the opposite to the average gambler.
 
SlimChance said:
my point is that the lows are always lower than the highs. It's just how emotion works.
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That's not my experience. Certainly not in terms of betting. I have experienced clinical depression but it wasn't in any way connected to racing.

I'll admit a long losing run can get me down but long experience tells me they will stop and one or two good days usually overturns the situation so while I get frustrated I know it's only temporary whereas being pretty confident of staying in front year on year whether on the Flat or over jumps enables me to maintain a largely positive outlook.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's not my experience. Certainly not in terms of betting. I have experienced clinical depression but it wasn't in any way connected to racing.

I'll admit a long losing run can get me down but long experience tells me they will stop and one or two good days usually overturns the situation so while I get frustrated I know it's only temporary whereas being pretty confident of staying in front year on year whether on the Flat or over jumps enables me to maintain a largely positive outlook.
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That's a great attitude to have. Most people lose confidence with a losing run. I think you can win money punting but still be a loser emotionally but maybe I'm obviously wrong that it applies to everyone.
 
I only get any sort of buzz from giving someone else a winner especially if they have limited funds,if no one else was backing the horses I gave out i'd be bored to tears.The money is pretty irrelevant now as you can only win anything decent by doing some sort of multiple anyway 4 20/1 winners in a multiple then that would be a buzz for me,otherwise it's just about picking the winners for me and bigger prices the better as I know someones got their £10/£20ew on it!
 
I'm not sure I agree with the philosopher 100%, though he doesn't mention what form of gambling he studied, just seems to be gambling in general. I'd also guess that most pro gamblers when it was written very much kept themselves to themselves, so he could have been looking at people who span a small profit, but didn't pull a wage.

Anyway, a couple of points he missed (or weren't posted). Emotions become less with both aspects of the game as the fight feels less. I can't get 5% of my bank on anymore, even if I got family members/friends to open bank/bookie accounts and place bets, they won't entertain 5% of my betting money (maybe if I seriously spread it about between them, but that means settling for a portion of it at shitty odds). Thats my first point, once a level has been reached and you've become accustomed to that level it doesn't feel like you're gambling as much, the fight doesn't seem as intense (though obviously you still hunt the winners/value with as much passion) the rewards and loses on your labour are less, so a bit of apathy starts to creep in (in a financial sense).

Secondly, he missed out another part which to me is one of the nastiest emotions you have to deal with, and that is letting winners go by unbacked! If you can't control this, then you're screwed. The mug punter within you with his scatter gun approach would have had a great day/week, and as the days/weeks like that pass, it's damned hard not to 'get stuck in'. It is what separates the successful gambler from the average gambler in the long term. It's discipline, but being able to deal with applying that discipline while Lady Luck is continually kicking you in the nuts, is what makes the difference, and for me is one of the most awful feelings with betting. Now couple that with a disciplined losing run and emotions are at a serious low (which can bring in a serious amount of apathy towards the game in general). This is over the course of 2 - 3 weeks for me though, nothing to do individual winners and losers, and is really the only thing that gets to me now. I find it is almost self propagating once it starts as well. I actually think I tighten up in case I'm letting it get to me, then have to endure more winners going by unbacked, and the seeds are sown for the next day, vicious circle. It's been a few years since I last spat the dummy out and went in all guns blazing (disastrous outcome), so maybe I've mastered that now, but it doesn't feel that way once the losers start getting backed and the unbacked possibles are romping home at tasty prices. That last element of discipline can be soul destroying stuff, I've been close to tears with frustration at times.

Edited - Everyone is different of course, I can only speak from my experience and betting the way I do. I don't mind backing something EW at 16's for it to finish 7th, then watching it win a few days later at 20's, at least I can seek comfort knowing I was on the right track in the first place. I reckon the bottom line is simply 'keeping your cool' in all aspects of the game. Though a run of unbacked winners does get me hot headed at times.
 
I'm 100% so far thanks to my 23%ROI political bet, so perhaps you'll allow me the above spouting, Meister.

I will now "get off your ******* thread" until I've another selection worthy of posting. :)
 
gigilo said:
I only get any sort of buzz from giving someone else a winner especially if they have limited funds,if no one else was backing the horses I gave out i'd be bored to tears.The money is pretty irrelevant now as you can only win anything decent by doing some sort of multiple anyway 4 20/1 winners in a multiple then that would be a buzz for me,otherwise it's just about picking the winners for me and bigger prices the better as I know someones got their £10/£20ew on it!
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You could always start putting bets on the Daily Picks thread again Andy! Always carried my £10/£20 ew! Sadly with work and a new baby I can't keep up with the to follows list any more.
 
Digger said:
any chance of any fecker putting some winners on this thread. mumsnet is that way>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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With due respect to those waiting for the occasional fish to be thrown, the psychology of betting is every bit as important as the ability to pick winners (imo), and discussion ought to be broadened rather than discouraged.
 
CPGagie said:
Secondly, he missed out another part which to me is one of the nastiest emotions you have to deal with, and that is letting winners go by unbacked! If you can't control this, then you're screwed. The mug punter within you with his scatter gun approach would have had a great day/week, and as the days/weeks like that pass, it's damned hard not to 'get stuck in'. It is what separates the successful gambler from the average gambler in the long term. It's discipline, but being able to deal with applying that discipline while Lady Luck is continually kicking you in the nuts, is what makes the difference, and for me is one of the most awful feelings with betting. Now couple that with a disciplined losing run and emotions are at a serious low (which can bring in a serious amount of apathy towards the game in general).
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I'm not sure that "scatter gun approach" necessarily goes with "mug punter" any more. For years I subscribed to what was the accepted "professional" way of backing horses: bide your time, keep your powder dry, be prepared to wait and wait until everything is in your favour and then and only then have a big bet. Had my moments, of course, but I couldn't make it work. And I'd sometimes go months without backing anything at all. It could get pretty tedious. In recent years, with the advent in particular of betting exchanges, I've gone to the other extreme. You've only got to look at the overrounds on Betfair, especially on busy days, to see how small the margin is that you have to overcome as a backer and if you follow the sport and if - if - you're any sort of judge you'd have to give yourself at least a chance of doing so.

So, now, my "strategy" is generally low, relatively level, stakes on loads of races, usually at weekends when the standard's better and I've the time available. I'm not afraid to back two or three horses in one race. I'm quite happy to back a horse solely on the basis that I'd be cheesed off if it won and I hadn't backed it. I also bet ante-post, usually with the bookies rather than Betfair. Old habits die hard and I still have the odd bigger bet but with limited success, I'd have to say. And I'm doing OK - just over ten per cent profit (after commission) on turnover this year. In the past month I've backed Equitania at 36, Educate at 13.5, Heaven's Guest at 20/1, Seagull Star at 19, Lahaag at 10.5, Ventura Mist at 14.5 among others. At one time I wouldn't have touched them with a bargepole. There have obviously been plenty of losers, too, it goes without saying. Whether I can carry on making a profit remains to be seen. It wouldn't suit everyone but it suits me. And it's enjoyable rather than tedious.
 
Horse racing remains a product which is priced n inefficiently by bookmakers overnight and in the mornings. That's why the scatter gun approach can work. You can easily have 8/10 EP bets on any given day and murder the SP on them and expect to make a profit. There really isn't a need to bet big often. The days of bookmakers looking at accounts and saying he has too many bets he's a punter are long gone.

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SlimChance said:
Horse racing remains a product which is priced n inefficiently by bookmakers overnight and in the mornings. That's why the scatter gun approach can work. You can easily have 8/10 EP bets on any given day and murder the SP on them and expect to make a profit. There really isn't a need to bet big often. The days of bookmakers looking at accounts and saying he has too many bets he's a punter are long gone.

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I reckon you can generally get value up until about 20minutes before the race. About 70% of the horses I backed on saturday shortened in the 10minutes before the off and that was nothing to do with my cash. There seemed to be a lot of strange odds at the weekend.
 
Slim, isn't that the quickest way to get closed down these days? If you're beating the SP by grabbing the tasty EP's. I've had accounts closed for that very reason. Surely, it's better to hit a few times hard, than give the game away by placing numerous small bets. They'd maybe shut you down within 48 hours playing like you suggested in your post above., and for what? Losing runs are longer grabbing just the value and not winner seeking, so you've gotta be betting smaller.

Each to their own though.
 
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