Tingle Creek Chase
- Thread starter JamesRB
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Arazi
At the Start
- Joined
- Oct 13, 2007
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- 187
It's a real shame the Victor Chandler is no longer a Handicap given that it's Sprinter Sacre's next intended target.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I think you are spot on there. As I mentioned at the start of the season we will surely see the smallest field in the QMCC's history in March if he keeps performing like this.
But don't worry it's only a matter of time until we get a situation where they start saying he keeps beating the same horse or he beat nothing like they did on the flat with Frankel.
I have no doubts that Nicky will not be content with him being a showboat 2 miler and he will step him up in trip in time.
IMVHO This horse is so good he would win this seasons King George doing handstands had Nicky decided to go that way.
granger
Senior Jockey
He could have Simonsig for next years QM. I'd guess that next years KG will definitely be on SS's plate.
Maybe he'll run in the 2m 4f chase at Aintree
Maybe he'll run in the 2m 4f chase at Aintree
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Just back from Sandown. That was so awesome.
After his victory Barry rode Sprinter Sacre past the stands and did a couple of fist pumps just like he did on Moscow Flyer at Cheltenham in '05.
After his victory Barry rode Sprinter Sacre past the stands and did a couple of fist pumps just like he did on Moscow Flyer at Cheltenham in '05.
have availed myself of the 4/7 for ss in the champion chase
it would seem only injury stands in the way
He did indeed run a super race but as I saw it he showed brief signs of being reluctant to race at the start.He was definitely the second best horse in the race-Kumbeshwar was ridden like a non trier to get 2nd which they were well rewarded for.
If he runs at Kempton he will be well clear on ratings but he doesn't strike me as the type to bounce back from such a hard race.
It might be a good race for a half decent novice.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
I wouldn't touch SS at 4/7 today for the CC. Not only might injury happen but there is also the chance that it ends up being run in a bog, or he might cough, or he might even fall - even the very best can fall - or fail a dope test.
These might be remote but there will be better even money shots running this week and you won't have to wait till March or put yourself through an emotional mincer to get your dough. Let it go unbacked and enjoy the spectacle.
only worried about injury/illness.
You can have as much 3/1 as you like - that Sanctuaire will never run anywhere near his current OR.
Doubt they'll change the way he's ridden, either. Why ruin his only asset?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I hear what you are saying Arazi but to be honest giving away weight is an overrated pastime in my opinion.
The handicap that would bring the likes of Kumbashwar e.g and a big strong class horse like Sprinter Sacre together simply hasn't been invented.
You only need look at the Hennessy and what Denman beat with ease and where the rest finished behind the class horses this year. Most of the challengers being a waste of space.
Look at the time Kauto Star was beaten by Our Vic, hard to explain but it happened and it might have happened again had he stood up when Snoopy Loopy won the Betfair Chase. He was beaten by Monet Garden but that was lack of fitness not the weight he was giving him as he wouldn't have gotten within a fence of Kauto Star at his best getting weight or not.
That's the hard part about winning these Group 1 races time after time, it's virtually impossible to have your charge 100% spot on for every outing unless you have a Frankel on your hands which hopefully Nicky might just have the NH version of and he'll remain unbeaten
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I have to agree..I already backed him well before the Tingle Creek to win the QMCC but got all my stake back with a good percentage on top yesterday.....Now I will take the profit and have it on Grandouet next week no matter what price they put up..........then I might just take the 2/1 about Sprinter Sacre for the QMCC.
What 2/1 you may ask.......in a double with Big Bucks of course
Only difference is I won't be going through the emotional mincer the bookie will :lol:Quick check with the stopwatch shows that - in a race run 1.3 secs quicker than Sanctuaire's Game Spirit - he actually took 1.07 secs longer to reach the pond fence, so the notion that he went off too quickly doesn't hold water.
He didn't; just had another horse to race against, and capitulated almost instantly.
He didn't; just had another horse to race against, and capitulated almost instantly.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I can't have any of this nonsense, Tanlic.
Giving weight-away in handicaps is a tried-and-tested way of measuring a horse's true worth. It would only ever be considered an "over-rated past-time" by the kind of mincer who thinks going undefeated "like Frankel" is more important than testing the horse to the limit.
Kumbeshwar is a daft example, but if SS is ever entered in a handicap where he's due to give weight to the likes of Sizing Europe, Finian's Rainbow or any of those which followed him home in the Arkle, we'd find out a lot more about him than we would against the same horses at levels.
It was a crime when The Chandler was changed from a handicap.
EC1
On a break
Its interesting how the handicap issue polarizes opinion. When Arkle is mentioned re his ratings, the times he gave weight in handicaps are used to as a negative..ie some horses can give weight so the rating is false. But as soon as we get a good horse it seems many people want the horse in question giving weight
Personally i think if a horse can carry weight..ie is a big strong horse..then when that horse carries top weight in a handicap it is getting a higher rating than its actually earned as the extra weight has less effect than on a smaller horse.
Unless we know a horse's weight carrying ability then its easy to over rate a win with top weight.
Whereas in a race where they carry the same weights we don't have that complication.
For people who want SS carrying weight in handicaps..what exactly is it going to tell you that you don't already know about him?
Personally i think if a horse can carry weight..ie is a big strong horse..then when that horse carries top weight in a handicap it is getting a higher rating than its actually earned as the extra weight has less effect than on a smaller horse.
Unless we know a horse's weight carrying ability then its easy to over rate a win with top weight.
Whereas in a race where they carry the same weights we don't have that complication.
For people who want SS carrying weight in handicaps..what exactly is it going to tell you that you don't already know about him?
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links781
Journeyman
Unofficially the noises coming out of the bha is that performance will get a 179,equal to moscows tingle creek
Look, the bottom line is this is the best two miler any of us have seen. Ratings tell us nothing. It's clear this fellow would have cantered all over Moscow Flyer, that's how good he is. You can't use ratings on this occasion, merely trust your eyes that you are seeing a horse who could be THE all time great.
GH, agree about the VC, it's a travesty.
GH, agree about the VC, it's a travesty.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
179 seems high on what he's actually achieved. Moscow beat proven high-class horses - Sprinter beat the massively overrated Sanctuaire and some average looking yokes.
It looks an example of the handicapper digging a hole for himself - he's made an error with Sanctuaire and now because Sprinter has thrashed him he needs to put him up beyond what he's achieved.
I've no doubt Sprinter can run to 179, and beyond, but he hasn't faced anything of the calibre of Well Chief and Azertyuiop yet, so it's difficult to see how he merits that rating at this stage.
It looks an example of the handicapper digging a hole for himself - he's made an error with Sanctuaire and now because Sprinter has thrashed him he needs to put him up beyond what he's achieved.
I've no doubt Sprinter can run to 179, and beyond, but he hasn't faced anything of the calibre of Well Chief and Azertyuiop yet, so it's difficult to see how he merits that rating at this stage.
Don't disagree he could struggle, I just can't think of a horse who could beat him even then. Wishful Thinking?
Doubt. A decent novice would go there, unless Captain Conan ran.
EC1
On a break
how is that even possible though?..on paper using Kumbeshwar it can only be 160..off the 4th it would be 175..but that would mean K is now a 160 horse all of a sudden
to me..SS might be a 200 horse..it would not surprise me at all..but on paper its not there yet
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EC1
On a break
without ratings how can you judge?..how easily would MF beat Kumbeshwar?
I think Petit Robin has won the race previously-might be a nice race to resurrect his chasing career in.
EC1
On a break
yesterday.. compared to the novice race..from when they jumped the first to when they jumped the 4th fence ..Sanctauire ran 10 seconds faster than the novice
they didn't go hard in the novice but 10 seconds is a lot faster early..but visually S didn't look like he was going as fast as last time