Today's Fancy

Sea Pigeon said:
I like Banimpire in the Ribblesdale, if she's in the same form as the other night, she'll take all the beating imo, at 3's i'll pay to find out in what looks a pretty average renewal
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She is my horse of the season so far - fantastic attitude - has only the Godolphin filly to beat - 3/1 is fair.
 
Gearoid said:
Estithmaar (Leopardstown 7.05) - 7/4 with Boylesports is more than fair. Was strongly fancied on both his runs this year and Declan McDonagh had to lift him over the line at Cork last time when trying to hold on to him until as late as possible got him boxed in. He works really well at home so a step up on his form is to be expected. I can't understand why they are dropping Creekside back to a mile as he got out paced over 10f last time out. He has to give an improving horse 11lbs over a trip that looks too short and he is 7/4?

Estithmaar looks the strongest bet on any card tomorrow and I can see him being 11/10 at the off.
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Creekside looked more unwilling than unable last time at Navan. Cannot see him being a danger.
 
Got word for Capaill Liath in the Brittania 4.25 today. Best price 40's with SJames. Been laid out for this all year. Poor draw so will need to have plenty in hand on the handicapper, which M Bell thinks he has. Course form over 7f on good to soft as a 2yo.
 
Celtic Dane (Down Royal 4.10) Is well handicapped and has been given three runs under a 10lb claimer so far this season including winning on the bridle on debut. My favourite jockey Sam James takes over tomorrow. He has had a dip in the equine pool during the week and has been working well. What price to win the race for the second year running? An almighy 12/1. I can assure you he will not be that big at the off and should go very close.
 
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Any ground difficulties there G, always thought he liked quick ground. Think Clare Glen is improving at a rate of knots and might be the one in this. Celendine looks a real John Oxx Ulster Oaks special.
 
None. He won a McDonagh handicap on soft ground. He just doesn't want sticky or bottom less ground. He's got half a stone in hand off his current mark.
 
Passion for Gold is way overpriced in the Hardwicke. How on earth is he 12/1 had him closer to 4/1. Again to me like Strong Suit in the Jersey he has the best form on offer IMO by some way and will absolutely love the soft ground. This is the bet of the meeting for me.
 
A rare ew for me. Poet at 12's. I think the fav is going to be very hard to beat and looks above this class, but still a bit of rain around and that could upset things

Bated Breaths form on soft looks ok to me and could be just RC's habit of playing things down a bit thats pushed price out.
 
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Prices all wrong at Auteuil - Portals Toy has run well in this before and been running ok at Enghien of late, he's currently in at 50/1 with the bookies over here (Grands Crus the 13/8 fav) but he's about 5 times the price he should be.

If nothing else you have a course winner, he's run well in the race before - won the main trial for the race in 2009 prior to finishing 2nd to the best staying hurdler of recent years in the main event a month later. PT had no chance last year primarily due to the way the winner was ridden and although disappointing LTO when a beaten odds on favourite he will run his race and on his day is considerably better than a number of his compatriots on what he's shown so far - Rhialco, Kinglaska, Really Hurley and there's stamina doubts surrounding a number of the leading contenders, most notably the two French geldings Roi Du Val (0 from 2 over 3m) whilst Bel La Vie was beaten 10 lengths as favourite in the Barka (behind Roi Du Val and Thousand Stars that day) over 2m 5.5f (furthest he's run over over hurdles, winner over trip over fences).

There's still plenty of 50/1 around though imagine it won't last and he's a heck of a lot shorter on the PMU.
 
Kauto said:
Passion for Gold is way overpriced in the Hardwicke. How on earth is he 12/1 had him closer to 4/1. Again to me like Strong Suit in the Jersey he has the best form on offer IMO by some way and will absolutely love the soft ground. This is the bet of the meeting for me.
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Exactly - see my post on the other thread. I emaile Gamla Stan yesterday to say this could be the biggest bet of my life - the market is miles wrong.
 
Hamm said:
Exactly - see my post on the other thread. I emaile Gamla Stan yesterday to say this could be the biggest bet of my life - the market is miles wrong.
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I'm very confused as to why Passion For Gold has relatively low OHR's and RPR's.

On heavy ground beat a 110 horse [Mikhail Ginka] by an easy 6 lengths..you could possibly rate PFG about 123/125 on that run with ease of win

On fast ground beat Jet Away a 114 horse 2.5 lengths..PFG = 119

Await The Dawn is about a 120/122 horse on fast ground.

On this ground if PFG runs that slow form figure again its way overpriced as you both say
 
Hamm said:
Exactly - see my post on the other thread. I emaile Gamla Stan yesterday to say this could be the biggest bet of my life - the market is miles wrong.
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I know his price compensates, but he got an easy lead at Goodwood whereas today it's front runners ahoy. I think that and the fact that it's his third race in fairly quick succession after a year off is a major stumbling block.
 
Kauto said:
Passion for Gold is way overpriced in the Hardwicke. How on earth is he 12/1 had him closer to 4/1. Again to me like Strong Suit in the Jersey he has the best form on offer IMO by some way and will absolutely love the soft ground. This is the bet of the meeting for me.
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I honestly don't know what happened - very disappointed by what was a very non event very early on.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Prices all wrong at Auteuil - Portals Toy has run well in this before and been running ok at Enghien of late, he's currently in at 50/1 with the bookies over here (Grands Crus the 13/8 fav) but he's about 5 times the price he should be.

If nothing else you have a course winner, he's run well in the race before - won the main trial for the race in 2009 prior to finishing 2nd to the best staying hurdler of recent years in the main event a month later. PT had no chance last year primarily due to the way the winner was ridden and although disappointing LTO when a beaten odds on favourite he will run his race and on his day is considerably better than a number of his compatriots on what he's shown so far - Rhialco, Kinglaska, Really Hurley and there's stamina doubts surrounding a number of the leading contenders, most notably the two French geldings Roi Du Val (0 from 2 over 3m) whilst Bel La Vie was beaten 10 lengths as favourite in the Barka (behind Roi Du Val and Thousand Stars that day) over 2m 5.5f (furthest he's run over over hurdles, winner over trip over fences).

There's still plenty of 50/1 around though imagine it won't last and he's a heck of a lot shorter on the PMU.
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Good call with this one matey.
 
Lots of dead wood at Gowran -it's the kind of meeting where you send your disappointing animal.Tavern Times was fancied for the festival bumper in 2010 but as a hurdler he hasn't convinced me and despite the local connections I am happy to lay away at 5/6.
505 at Gowran.
 
Interesting money for the Byrnes horse in that race Luke - yard know what they're doing and might be worth a small bet on the win to try and cop the lot should TT get beat, currently 13.5 for tuppence.
 
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