Today's Fancy

As mentioned on the relevant thread, there is a forum connected horse running in the 2.30 at Wolverhampton. Whilst glancing at the race I noticed substantial support for the Michael Wigham trained Sumbe in the same race.

After a "slowly away, nearest at finish" effort over 7f on today's course, Sumbe went on to run a decent 4th dropped down to 6f at Folkestone and then well beaten over 7f at Newmarket. Those 3 runs (his only 3 for Wigham after joining from Marcus Tregoning) have seen his OR drop to 65, allowing him to contest this 0-65 contest. The thing I looked for after seeing the support was entries after today and sure enough he further entries this week, suggesting connections may be happy to see him out under a penalty?

Stepped up to 1m 1/2f today, it would be no surprise to see a prominent run from stall 2, although hopefully to be collared by Guildenstern close home of course!
 
2.15 Beverley

the first two in the market have uninspiring sire stats..the next two not a lot better...at the prices..and with stable in flying form... Pearl Catcher looks a value bet to me in this.
 
After a long exile from this thread I am back with a recommendation for Solar Sail in the 6.50 at Ballinrobe. The horse is in good tune, ran a good race the last day, and if it can overcome a poor draw then it is expected to go very close. I have had a win only bet at 6/1. If it gets the run it needs it should be bang there, if not then I cant see that it will be pushed to get into the places around here.
 
Tipperary 7:50 Highly Efficient (Currently Best Price 5/1)

Should love the ground, stayed on very well when running green on first run. The form of that race has worked out better than most here tonight. Sonapour seems the biggest danger, but is a horse that would be seen to better effect on quicker ground. Small rev fc as a saver.
 
Speculative, but Ace of Spies in 7.30 Southwell seems a big price at 33/1. Stable had 3 runners today, 2 wins and a 3rd. Acts on the surface, drops back in trip but with first time blinkers, worth abet at the odds in a competitive enough contest.
 
Go Go Green (Hamilton 4:45) looks very well handicapped now, and seemingly is back to his best form. He went close enough in a class 3 last time out, dropped to a class 5 here but runs off same mark. Should go close although does carry top weight, but the positives outweigh the negatives here and 5/2 still looks generous to me.
 
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Kims Dream 5.50 Sligo

In season the last time she ran in Tipp when fancied. She's expected to run a lot better tonight, decent draw and blinds on for first time. 16/1, she's an E/W price.
 
Leopardstown 7.00

Is there a better bet on any card tomorrow than the 6/4 (Boylesports) for Aiden O'Brien's Tenth Star? He was a bit unlucky when beaten by the well regarded Zip Top over C&D three weeks ago. The best clue I can give that is not in the formbook was that he was really well fancied to win that night. Now that alone is not significant but when you consider the support for Zip Top that day and how strong both were on course you get a better picture. It was a very good maiden and I can't see Whip Rule being suited to 7f or Snowflake Dancer being good enough.

I'd expect Tenth Star to be close to odds on tomorrow at the off.
 
I think he will be odds on Gearoid-promising run followed by unlucky run-personally I Like to see them win a race and would consider laying him at odds on.
 
LUKE said:
I think he will be odds on Gearoid-promising run followed by unlucky run-personally I Like to see them win a race and would consider laying him at odds on.
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Whip Rule has been supported but Tenth Star has to go off odds on now. I'd rather there was 5 runners really.
 
I had written my post about an hour before submitting it and didn't know about the non runner.I presume Joseph will make all and he is dangerous from the front.I think the horse has questions to answer but I really don't want to be laying him at anything over 4/5.
 
The market for the novice hurdle at Perth today (14.50) doesn't look right.

Favourite is Sounds Of Thunder at a best price of 6/4, but she is a four-year-old filly being asked to give at least 4lbs to geldings which are older than her, which looks a tough ask. She has a UK official rating of 126, but that looks at least 10lbs too high, because it doesn't tie in well with her flat rating of only 64 or with the overall merit of her form.

The difficulty is identifying which horse(s) will beat her, so some might prefer to lay.

Second favourite is Dumitas at 2/1. He has a hurdles rating of 104, which is very low considering he is a dual bumper winner. That is probably beside the point, however, because he was sold soon after the second of those wins in Oct 2009 and has not been the same horse since. He has not been within 10l of the winner in any of his eight runs over hurdles.

Mr Tallyman (3/1) is rated 8lbs higher than Dumitas, at 112. He seems to have reached a plateau in terms of form. It gives him a chance against the other pair, but might there be an improver in the field?

Kalanisi Kid won his first race last time out after a change of tactics. He looked beaten a few furlongs out against Sounds Of Thunder's stablemate Priors Gold, who was long odds on, but persisted and finally worried that horse out of it. Perhaps it was more a case of Priors Gold throwing the race away, but might Kalanisi Kid come on for the experience? At current odds of 26 for a win and 8.6 for a place on Betfair (two places only) I'm prepared to have a few quid on in case he does. He comes from a very small stable, so the lack of money for him doesn't put me off.
 
Up early in the mornimg for a price check in the 7.55 Bellewstown. I'll be takimg any 5/1 or above The Firm. The draw is not ideal but I'm expecting him to be held up so it shouldn't inconvifnce him. He's far from the gnod thing Tenth Star looked at Leopardstnwn but he will love the step up in trip and I'm confident he'll run well.
 
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