Today's Fancy

It also helps if it's from a yard that knows what they're talking about - there's a list of trainers a mile long who's horses are regularly backed (for whatever reason) from 33's into 12's and regularly finish midfield or worse.

Would also depend on who else knows the info - and tbh you seldom find that out until some idiot has fucked the price up by asking for £10 at 4.8 on Betfair the night before.
 
Irish Stamp said:
It also helps if it's from a yard that knows what they're talking about - there's a list of trainers a mile long who's horses are regularly backed (for whatever reason) from 33's into 12's and regularly finish midfield or worse.

Would also depend on who else knows the info - and tbh you seldom find that out until some idiot has fucked the price up by asking for £10 at 4.8 on Betfair the night before.
Click to expand...

I used RSB a few years ago to find trainers who had good records with horses that started significantly lower than their forecast prices..was very interesting..interesting in that most trainers have very poor success rates with this type of horse

there are just a few trainers who are consistently good at it..or were anyway
 
That would also rely on an accurate forecast price too EC - the more you build into such a system the more likely it is to go round.

If there was a way of using Oddschecker to compare best EP with eventual SP of a trainers horses that would be a good way of looking at it (doesn't account for market correction mind).
 
[FONT=&quot]What would be fascinating would be a comparison with a trainers strike rate and the Betfair SP as that is the most accurate guide we have to a horses chances. Smaller or less obvious trainers with a favourable comparison would be worth noting with early moves.[/FONT]
 
Last edited:
the RSB method was about the only way I could think of at that time to do it..it did highlight some interesting stuff.

I remember posting them on the EBA board..i'll have to have a look and see if Mabbs has still got it...it must be 7 years ago now

I think I set it to show each trainers strike rate with horses that started at least half their Forecast price.

Did anyone else use RSB?..it had some great features.
 
EC1 said:
the RSB method was about the only way I could think of at that time to do it..it did highlight some interesting stuff.

I remember posting them on the EBA board..i'll have to have a look and see if Mabbs has still got it...it must be 7 years ago now

I think I set it to show each trainers strike rate with horses that started at least half their Forecast price.

Did anyone else use RSB?..it had some great features.
Click to expand...

Please excuse my ignorance but what is RSB?
 
Last edited:
Gearoid said:
Anyone who ignores inside information is on drugs.
Click to expand...

Define "inside information". For example, I know Gormanstown Cuckoo did not stay 2m4f the last day so back over 2m I expected him to run into a place. But I had to distill the form in order to assess whether the change in trip would still mean he could beat the other horses. A trainer might not know the form well enough. Similarly, take Big Zeb. All you needed to know was that he was fit and well and had improved from last season and you could ignore the comments by the trainer as he is not sure how the other horses in the race have been prepped. That's why I think you need to know what horses are like and match that with your view of the opposition. So today at Tramore, Bobs Display got beaten. I didn't back her as she really needs better ground. She ran on well from a poor position two out and the next day, on better ground, might be overpriced against ordinary opposition. That to me is inside info used to profit from. I know she wants better ground, just like when she won at Leopardstown last year at 16/1 after being pulled up on heavy ground the time before when fav.
 
The kind of information that at its most extreme had Freddie Mitchell's parents at Lingfield at 12.45 on November 30th.
 
Cantoris said:
Define "inside information". For example, I know Gormanstown Cuckoo did not stay 2m4f the last day so back over 2m I expected him to run into a place. But I had to distill the form in order to assess whether the change in trip would still mean he could beat the other horses. A trainer might not know the form well enough. Similarly, take Big Zeb. All you needed to know was that he was fit and well and had improved from last season and you could ignore the comments by the trainer as he is not sure how the other horses in the race have been prepped. That's why I think you need to know what horses are like and match that with your view of the opposition. So today at Tramore, Bobs Display got beaten. I didn't back her as she really needs better ground. She ran on well from a poor position two out and the next day, on better ground, might be overpriced against ordinary opposition. That to me is inside info used to profit from. I know she wants better ground, just like when she won at Leopardstown last year at 16/1 after being pulled up on heavy ground the time before when fav.
Click to expand...

But none of that is inside information - its reading the form that is open to interpretation.

I think we are talking about two different types of horses where inside info really comes in. The type of races we all talk about on here..the top ones..i don't think inside info comes into it...most horses are trying to win in those types of races...which automatically makes inside info pretty irrevelant in those types of races. The sort of form reading you describe is the key to those top races.

Inside info comes into its own in lower grade races where many horse are much of a muchness and win infrequently. Its knowing that today is the day with a 2 from 30 horse that means something.

The only way to get inside info in these kind of races is to actually be told it ..or be an expert on how each trainer lands such touches..by studying his previous methods.
 
Last edited:
in the 12.00 Fakenham I think the fav Sire De Grugy is a little overated on what its done. Marleno who finished just behind it won a couple of days ago off 106..maybe a 110 horse...but the next two in the betting today have run to 115/120 marks in the past.

Aviador & Glorybee are juicy prices..so its either back those or lay the fav.

My instinct is to lay the fav..I keep finding weak favs and then not profiting from them by backing others against them
 
I was just looking at that race and thought the same, done a place lay of it which works quite well at times, if it's not going to win then the jockey tends not to try, in Ireland it works a lot more!
 
dvds2000 said:
I was just looking at that race and thought the same, done a place lay of it which works quite well at times, if it's not going to win then the jockey tends not to try, in Ireland it works a lot more!
Click to expand...

you could be right..i'll stick to win lay i think...the stable isn't going that well either and the ground today is very different to what the fav has been facing..its says ground is dead there
 
Last edited:
Had Bob Lingo on my mind the last couple of weeks and copious amounts of procrastination today left the 7/1 unbacked. Got a very very soft lead. The year can only get better here too!
 
Time Electric has been right at the top of my horses to lay list for a long time.when the favourite took a dive I laid Time Electric for the balance of my Betfair account.I was delighted to see him get a long way behind.
This is a horse that will challenge Charles Byrnes and could possibly land him in trouble.
 
In today's opener at Naas, White Star Line is around the 6/4 mark. His stable has not performed well over the Christmas period, however, and he and Dun Masc both seem worth opposing. Popmurphy has the physique to do well over jumps and should go well on today's ground.
 
1250 at Ayr Rupert Lamb is from a family that tends to regress.I have laid for a decent amount at 6/5 in the win market and a speculative few quid at 1/3 in place market.
 
The unbearable pain of being back in work-the only thing that can get me through the day is a good lay.Frascati Park could be the one at around the 1.75 mark in the 120 at Leicester.To me he is a horse that finds it hard to win and even though he has some great form in the context of this race I am willing to oppose him at the odds.
 
Back
Top