Today's Fancy

I like the look of Henok 5:40 Ffos Las - his sire Kapgarde is a having a good season with Allee Garde, Titan De Sarte, The Tracey Shuffle, Problema Tic and Di Kaprio.

The Dam Harkosa has only had one runner this season, Houblon Des Obeaux who won L/T/O and is now rated 148.

Just watched Henok's first and only race over C/D and he gives me the impression he'll improve a lot for it. With Sam T/Davies taking the ride and claiming 3lb is another positive.

Nicky Henderson has the fav in the race, Speed Master but his Dam has question marks on her pedigree imo.

The interesting point is both horses are owned by the same owners, Walters Plant Hire Ltd who have 26% strike-rate at the course so the market on these two should prove very interesting.

I've taken the chance at nearly 4/1 (betfair) that this horse will be their main hope and a gamle will be landed.
 
I'll take on Ikorodu Road with Victor Dartnell's Ace High. Stable in cracking form and may take advantage of any flaws in his 3 rivals today.
 
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Indeed, excellent write-up on the 3:50 and spot on call with Twin Soul. Very well done.
Wins most impressively.
 
davidjohnson said:
Well done Steve T with Twin Soul. Any views on Lucky Emllor at Southwell tomorrow?
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Thanks all, nice to get one right.

I like the look of him tomorrow, CD winner, Kirby back on board who I thought gave him a decent ride from a poor draw at Wolves last time as a late jockey change.
 
davidjohnson said:
Any views on Lucky Emllor at Southwell tomorrow?
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Looking at him more closely tomorrow we can see that in the 18 runs since his debut, 13/14 of them have come after a break of roughly 3 weeks or more. On the occasions when he has reappeared within a fortnight:

4th of 4, 5f Gd/Fm, Windsor, op 16/1, sp 20/1
3rd of 10, 5f A/W Lingfield, op 16/1, sp 12/1, blinkered, OR 71
1st of 6, 5f Southwell (STD / Slow), op 6/4, sp 6/4, blinkered, OR 74.

By no means conclusive, but an indicator that although they seem to like to give him time between races, he can follow up runs with some success.

We know he can act at Southwell, the draw is not a negative, there is a question of no blinkers tomorrow and although Kirby gave him a good ride from a poor draw last time, he does have it in his locker to bugger up the early pace if taken on (likely) ala his effort on Striker Torres.

Interesting to see if the money comes for him tomorrow, likely to be around 10/1 in early exchanges, wouldn't be surprised to see him supported, but always a nagging doubt they would like to get him dropped another 1lb or so to his winning mark of 74, maybe to come out in the blinkers.
 
Ten Fires looks a really interesting runner in the Devon National today at Exeter. Given that I previously had him down as a horse that needed five miles and a bog to be seen to best effect, his last two efforts over trips well short of his maximum marked him down as very much on the upgrade this year and one to keep onside when back up in trip, particularly his last run in a solid 2m5f handicap at Leopardstown when he looked strong at the finish.

A stiff 3m6f should be right up his street, the only doubt being how he will cope with a relatively sound surface. Haven't really had a chance to assess the opposition (would be very interested in hearing any thoughts), though I've had a go at 6's regardless.
 
Ten Fires was going very well - he looked a picture in the paddock too.

Good to see a small time punter win big today at Exeter - £1.4m! Word had got round the track that he was on course and was the only one surviving in the Jackpot. The horse he had picked in the last looked a complete no-hoper too - rider not ridden a winner, trainer not had a winner for an eternity, horse out of form. But the whole crowd was willing her home and she did a great job getting up by 3/4 length.
 
There are three that catch my eye tomorrow at Naas. Kalann in the first race, ran a good race first time out over hurdles after winning on the AW in Dundalk, connections were delighted with the run and felt that with the experience they would improve past the winner the next time. Two runs in better company since hasnt seen this one placed, but i feel that the drop back to this sort of company should see Kalann win.

Then on to Serien in the 3.15. Runs behind Johnny Mc Geeney, Day of a lifetime and bold optomist at 2 mile have all been pretty decent, but this step up in trip should suit a lot better, and id be very sweet on this one tomorrow.

Finally in the last, Shrapnel in the bumper...if this one is half as good as they say he is, he should be winning this comfortably. Whether he is or not is anyones guess.Id be expecting an avalanche of cash for it.
 
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Canaly to get the Cheltenham exes in the second race - they thought this would win the landrover last year but was just a little immature. Will love the drying ground and step up in trip - trappy race but at 9/2 or 5/1 he's worth a few quid - just opened 6's with Powers and Boyles.
 
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Kalann in the first race, ran a good race first time out over hurdles after winning on the AW in Dundalk, connections were delighted with the run and felt that with the experience they would improve past the winner the next time. Two runs in better company since hasnt seen this one placed, but i feel that the drop back to this sort of company should see Kalann win.
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Today's going should suit better too, so you could well be right, provided the last two outings haven't ripped the guts out of him. Do you know why they tried a tongue strap the last day but are leaving it off today?

PS: Forget all that, just seen that he's a non-runner
 
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