UK election

gigilo said:
Lib dems getting under 10 seats and 10%of the vote seems to look glaruingly obvious as well 3.5...
Click to expand...

This looking good at the moment as well,especially if snp and labour can drag a few more votes off them..:ninja:
 
Good article on Mike Smithson's site today arguing for the Lib Dem under ten bet. I've had a bit. When the books are 5/6 under 10.5, 5/2 under 10 looks great value.
 
I'm sure my Lib Dem MP will breathe a sigh of relief if he's re-elected. He's defending a majority of less than 3,000
 
Chucked a lay in of Corbyn to be PM as well at 5/1,althiugh I havn't seen anyone mentioning I think there's a strong possibility of him resigning don't know if it will be Friday but by the end of the year looks a certainty to me see if I can find out a price,then dan steps in!!:cool:
 
gigilo said:
Chucked a lay in of Corbyn to be PM as well at 5/1,althiugh I havn't seen anyone mentioning I think there's a strong possibility of him resigning don't know if it will be Friday but by the end of the year looks a certainty to me see if I can find out a price,then dan steps in!!:cool:
Click to expand...

As much as I would like to see Dan Jarvis as leader, I very much doubt under the current way they elect leaders that he has much chance. If Labour don't get mullered, then Corbyn could be seen as having done not too badly, and may well not stand down on Friday. A few weeks ago I would have said he was certain to stand down with a massive landslide against him, I can easily see Corbyn viewing a lesser beating as some kind of "victory".
 
I look forward to the next GE when the full carnage of Brexit will be known and there`ll be no Corbyn or May around. Should be a shoo in for Labour!
 
Corbyn may not go Friday but he will be gone by the end of the year regardless of how good or bad the result I get the feeling it maybe near millibands anyway,three monkeys could've beaten May in this election but with Diane abbott,Mcdonnell and Corbyn it was impossible task.
 
I don't agree that Corbyn has been a liability during the campaign. Granted, he has had his moments, but that's to be expected, and he has otherwise had a pretty-handy election. I'd be a little surprised if there was a near-term move against him.

Abbot, on the other hand, has no future, regardless of what happens. If I didn't know any better :whistle: I'd say she'd been tooting on some fine Kingstaaan sensemilla, before a couple of her most recent interviews.
 
No I don't think they will try and get rid of him will resign,this year absolutely no point in staying on if he was principled enough to say he wouldn't press the button he seems to be the type to do the same after an election...
 
gigilo said:
No I don't think they will try and get rid of him will resign,this year absolutely no point in staying on if he was principled enough to say he wouldn't press the button he seems to be the type to do the same after an election...
Click to expand...

I think you are underestimating his stubborness Gigilo. I do not know of any other leader in the last 50 years that would not have thrown in the cap when offered a vote of no confidence by his party, as Corbyn did. I see it that if Tories get a massive win, even then he would take some persuading to go, and if the result is just an average majority, I see no chance of him going. Any leader who will face down a vote of no confidence from his own MPs is going to need to take one hell of a beating by the tories to shift him.

But lets say he does resign on Friday or in the coming weeks. All that will happen is that the next left standing candidate will get the leaders job because its clear that the Party membership will not vote for anyone else. You will basically get a Corbyn clone under the present membership. People like Benn and Jarvis won't get a look in, two people who would make very good leaders under a sensible Labour gathering, but we have got a load of half wits as members who won't entertain either of them.

My view is that even if Corbyn is absolutely buried, he and McDonnell will stay put and cause the whole party to disintigrate.
 
Last edited:
I'm afraid you're probably right. What it does seem to highlight, though, is that people couldn't seem to differentiate between the Labour Party and the Conservatives and now that we have a truly left wing party leader many people are supporting him. Until recently I was totally opposed to Corbyn but now support him because the thought of 5 years of a Conservative Government with a huge majority fills me with terror [and I also now believe him to be a genuine, caring politician]. What I can't understand is the way that people who felt hopeless and used brexit as a protest vote, now seem to be voting Conservative. On the other hand, I do want the current government to be the ones to sort out the awful mess that they've got this country into. When I see other countries with leaders like Trudeau and Macron, and then see us allying ourselves to Trump and I just despair. It's all like a bad dream.
 
He did come cross well at various points no worse than May that's for sure but they were never trying to wij or even win extra seats,look where he went in the country avoided all the midlands,welsh and northern marginals and attended big labour rallys a case of trying to preserve seats.For me that is very poor especially when you see may was in all sorts of seats,thats how far ahead they have been throughout..may would've lost this election at worst a hung parliamebt if abbot and Mdonnell hadn't been on the scene corbyn may have gpt away with it..
 
You can still get 1.2 for an overall majority it looks a 1.01 to me amazing how the prices hold up for so long with these election prices..
 
It said on newsnight last night that most people tend to watch their local news, and the places that Corbyn spoke at were going to be broadcast in key areas even if he didn't appear to be in a relevant area.
 
A Great British Racing offering

We’ve reached the final furlong of the 2017 General Election, so here’s our analysis of General Election 17 using real racehorse names!


Party Politics has been all the talk after the Snap election was called by Sweet Theresa in April, saying she needed a majority to deal with Brexit and the negotiations ahead. Master Corbin was so far behind in the Opinion Poll’s, she looked to be On The Bridle galloping towards 8[SUP]th[/SUP] June.


However, Jeremy had other ideas, and with his Manifesto launched a promising New Approach, an end to Privatisation and more wages for the Workforce, he’s proven to be a dour stayer and closing to be almost neck-and-neck coming down the straight.


Meanwhile Theresa May has been Dodging Bullets from the media after she had apparently Gone Missing during the leadership debates. She maintains she’s the Best Leader, a Strong Lass and a Stable Girl. She’ll be getting out the Blue Bunting if they can continue the Tories Long Run in Downing Street.
It looks like the Democratic Boys led by Captain Tim will have to settle for the minor placings, they’ve been tailed off in a two-horse race.


The race is on for top cabinet spots too, will we see Amber Beat, and Our Diane sat in the Home Office? Will Boris The Bold be head of all things Foreign and will the Choice Exchequer be One For Philip or Johnnie Red?


So Thursday’s election decides if it’s the End Of May at the start of June, or whether we Welcome In May once again to No.10. The Electorate is apparently undecided and Labour are Gaining Momentum, so who knows. By Friday morning we’ll have Found out if it’s a Tory Island or perhaps the electoral map will be Definitely Red.
 
gigilo said:
You can still get 1.2 for an overall majority it looks a 1.01 to me amazing how the prices hold up for so long with these election prices..
Click to expand...

It's been volatile today: into 1.05 and 1.17 this morning then back ou to around your taken prices of 1.1 and 1.25, now in again to 1.07 and 1.2

Labour 150-199 seats went fav for a while earlier, though 200-249 is again now at 2.44

If anything can be read in to this I don't know, and suspect the volatility on the Most and Majority markets is due in some part to hedging and trading out

Corbyn has long been a confident and proficient campaigner who relishes 'the stump' and can play a crowd; so it's not entirely surprising he's been well received as this is his element. A position of pragmatic responsibility viz PM or leader of the opposition isn't

May is almost the complete opposite, though she has been particularly poor. I suspect she'll actually handle Brexit negotiations rather better than her public appearances this campaign would suggest, once out of the limelight she hates

If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now. It's just a spring clean for the May Queen
 
Last edited:
Ashcroft goven a 93 majority,labour voters a lot less likely to vote as opposed to the certainty of the torys this was always going to be the obvious scenario didn't take a genius to work that out...
 
I take an even more dismal view of Labour's immediate prospects as I suspect the left will accuse the right of undermining Corbyn in his first chaotic 18 months through a series of resignations, smears, and challenges. That was where it was lost, and that is fertile ground for a blood letting session as they seek to blame the continuity Blair wing

What has been interesting is to see how people seem to have warmed to the manifesto (surprised me). Labours support started to improve once people started to become aware of the policy platforms. Theresa May and her war on porn and bring back fox hunting (clearly where the pulse of the nation is) lost ground from then onward. She ought to be able to comfortably take Corbyn for a 100+ majority, but she's seriously struggled to engage. She has all the charisma of a photocopier and the imagination of baked beans on toast

It will be interesting to see in the final fallout whether it was Labour's manifesto that was rejected, or the personnel. The usual answer to that is a bit of both, but right now I'd say it skews quite heavily to the candidate. I mentioned a fortnight ago that it would have been interesting to see how Ed Miliband might have got on against May. Cameron was a significantly better campaigner than May, and he only managed a 12 seat majority

My own suspicion is that May will be allowed to navigate Brexit (who in their right mind would volunteer for that?) and then the party hierarchy will try and lever her out, as she's seriously shown up her limitations in campaign mode, and if Labour can find a half decent and credible communicator, she'll lose in 2022
 
Last edited:
May looked like Frankel from day one that has turned into a Group 3 type by now. Compare that with Corbyn who started off with below average expectations, an 80 performer, who has risen to a 120 level, regarding performing as a potential leader.

My own view before the election was called was that May was a shoo in, but her real level, as seen over the last 7 weeks, is that of a very average 1990s backbencher, with no charisma whatsoever. At the start she thought was she was competing against a selling plater, and thought no effort was required to win. The problem she has found though is that Ken Payne has done his injection job on the selling plater, and she is now exposed as the very ordinary, clearly below average, politician that she has always been.

If this was a Derby we would be saying in an average year May would scrape home, in a very good year she would get buried, but in what was really an open goal, she will just win. As it is she has wasted winning by 10 lengths to maybe winning by 2 lengths, so has underperformed to an unusually diappointing degree.

The woman was faced with a Derby initially that looked a free kick, but her real level over the last 7 weeks has been revealed as actually being not much above, the much derided by her, opposition. She is probably the worst contender for prime minister since the 2nd world war, but will still win. What a mess we are in when a free kick against the worse opposition leader since Foot has turned into a questionable win for the Tories, she should be burying such as Corbyn. As it is, the words "hung parliament" have been bandied, ffs, how poor is May?.

If she gets a 50 majority she will be celebrating like a match winner tomorrow, but in reality, she should have got a 100+ majority. The best laugh in political history would be if Corbyn wins.
 
Last edited:
From labour uncut two days ago,how the hell was the survation poll at 1% after this should've been no offers the torys after this alone..

Just over two weeks ago I posted a projection of huge losses for Labour – over 90 seats – based on dozens of conversations with activists, candidates and officials who cumulatively had sight of tens of thousands:blink: of canvass returns.
Since then, I’ve continued*those conversations*as Labour has apparently surged in the polls.
The result is a marked improvement in London but precious little to cheer about outside the capital.
The last few weeks have seen a strong*rise in Labour promises in key seats across London, although constituencies such as Dagenham and Eltham remain very difficult.
But in the West Midlands, Yorkshire, North West and the North East, any improvement has been nugatory.
One campaigner from London who spent time in the North East last week described it as a “nuclear winter for Labour.”
The doorstep returns outside of London are saying that Labour is still running substantially below its 2015 vote, that Ukip votes are transferring in huge numbers to the Tories with losses in prospect of the mid-60s to mid-90s and a lingering possibility that the situation could be even worse come Thursday...
 
You seem to be trying to reverse the obvious Gigilo. We started at the Tories gaining a massive majority, possibly the biggest in history. I doubt anyone believes that now.

I'll say now I very much doubt Labour will get destroyed to the level they appeared they would do initially. Anyone who says the Tories will win is really stating the obvious, so not sure what you are trying to achieve. Its basically very simple, from day one Labour looked like getting decimated, then, due to May's absolutely dismal performance she has thown that massive lead away. Its not brain surgery to say that the Tories will win, but they will not win by what they should have, due to p1ss poor leadership by May.
 
Last edited:
clappers61 said:
You seem to be trying to reverse the obvious Gigilo. We started at the Tories gaining a massive majority, possibly the biggest in history. I doubt anyone believes that now.

I'll say now I very much doubt Labour will get destroyed to the level they appeared they would do initially. Anyone who says the Tories will win is really stating the obvious, so not sure what you are trying to achieve. Its basically very simple, from day one Labour looked like getting decimated, then, due to May's absolutely dismal performance she has thown that massive lead away. Its not brain surgery to say that the Tories will win, but they will not win by what they should have, due to p1ss poor leadership by May.
Click to expand...

Like I said the survation poll was 1% difference yesterday and they were the most accurate at the last election which must've been what was holduing the prices up yet this was on labour uncut freely available so survation for some strange reason had completely ignored this article from grassroots 2 days ago.They were putting a majority in strong doubt having poll leads of over 20+% earlier in the campaign and the last week consistently showing 1% even last night,nothing to do with stating an obvious tory win as much as they wrre putting doubt over a majority having been accurate at the last election..
 
The only poll worth noting will be tonight on BBC 1 at 10pm, the exit poll, to be fair.

The obvious outcome is a medium win for the tories, when it should have been a total destruction job. That failure to destroy, equates to poor leadership and guarantees she will get replaced before the next election. I'll wager Amber Rudd is the next PM during their next reign.

Alternatively, I would love to see a Labour landslide that defies all the media experts and shoves a hot poker up the backsides of the smug expectant Tories.

The last bit is just a dream obviously.
 
Last edited:
Think I could predict the exit poll to roughly be 60+ seats that's from all the predictions seen,only polls that were interesting are pre event to me especially the survation one and howe they will explain it away..
 
Back
Top