What are you backing Today? Part 2

Saturday, Newbury 3.00 - Fivethousandtoone 7/2

Back in July in the Longshot thread I mentioned Run To Freedom:

Desert Orchid said:
Haydock Sprint Cup - Run To Freedom 66/1 - I've taken this for the Hackwood on Saturday in the belief it might just be a fast improver on the evidence of its run in the Platinum Jubilee. That is working out 7lbs better - backed up on the clock - than anything it had done before and it's lightly enough raced to keep improving. If it ends up winning or even going close in this it won't be 66/1.
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It didn't run in the Hackwood that day and goes for the Hungerford with as good a chance as anything but what I didn't know was that it had since come out and won. Just behind it that day, on very disadvantageous terms, was Fivethousandtoone and under the current handicap guidelines they weren't allowed to give him a hike to reflect the form. If the reasoning for the guidelines is correct then its chance here is fair enough but if the form of that race can be taken at face value he should be a 6/4 shot. The concern is that it was a three-horse-field, slow-run conditions race and they can throw up very misleading form. But, rated 93, he was only a short head off Run To Freedom (OR 110) receiving just 7lbs and two lengths (6lbs) in front of the 104-rated Royal Commando.

RTF is still 66s for Haydock but at least it's still in the field and if it is 13lbs better than Royal Commando he is entitled to be in the mix for the places there. If he runs well in the Hungerford on Saturday he might shorten.

(Sits back and waits for you know who to throw in his best zinger...)
 
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Is that the race Gisburn goes for?

I backed it each way the last day ran well against an in form horse of Mark Johnstons called I'm A Gambler.

Gisburn for me. A worthy fav.
 
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Saturday, Ripon 2.50 - Misty Grey 14/1, 5 places, BOG - I always like this race because it’s quirky. I’m looking for something that acts here and I prefer a higher draw, both allied to a decent mark. CD winner Misty Grey (14/1) ticks all those boxes even though his best form is on the all-weather but he hit a career peak last time dropped back to six furlongs in a very strongly run race and for me there's no conclusive evidence he needs an artificial surface. He might just be on the up. Justanotherbottle is likely to set the race up for him. Blackrod (7/1) was only 11/2 for the Wokingham but didn’t quite run his race there and I have to wonder why he has changed stables since that run. He’s obviously the danger on the ratings but is drawn on the other rail. Summerghand is also handicapped to win another big one and could well get away with a penalty in the Ayr Gold Cup on his best form but he too is drawn wrong for me. I think Misty Grey is a stonking each-way bet at the price with the best place terms on offer.
 
I like the look of the fav Blackrod tomorrow....No one can get prices like DO does. Misty Grey 14/1 5 places was available for a short time before it was the only horse that went all blue across the board 8/1 to a high of 10/1 what a coincidence...:whistle:

Fair play to him maybe he got it from the same bookie who was going 7/1 Blackrod who opened at 4/1 and drifted to 9/2.:blink: I wish my bookie had gone 7/1 but alas!!!!
 
Only bet tomorrow is Tiber Flow in the Hungerford. I got 6/1 on Monday and like I said on the ante-post thread I liked his run in the Commonwealth where he tracked Flotus and kept on without looking dangerous, like a 7f horse would. I fear Chindit if only because he devastated me when he beat Mutasaabeq at Ascot and that's it really. Pogo will be vulnerable leading and if he couldn't win a terrible Lennox he shouldn't be winning this.
 
Euronymous said:
Only bet tomorrow is Tiber Flow in the Hungerford. I got 6/1 on Monday and like I said on the ante-post thread I liked his run in the Commonwealth where he tracked Flotus and kept on without looking dangerous, like a 7f horse would. I fear Chindit if only because he devastated me when he beat Mutasaabeq at Ascot and that's it really. Pogo will be vulnerable leading and if he couldn't win a terrible Lennox he shouldn't be winning this.
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I borderline love Pogo I was onto him last season or the season before and he has turned into an really admirable horse who is very genuine. That said I will follow you on Tiber Flow who hopefully can show the turn of foot required.

I would give Postwick a good mention for Newbury's 1.20. A very lightly raced 3 year old who has bits and pieces of good form, but has been noted as hanging left a couple of times and pulling too free aswell.

It seems to me Postwick like me and so many other talented folk might have a small screw loose, so I am going to forgive him and back him tomorrow to out-run the decent odds in what is a winnable race. Hopefully his trainer can start to get the best out of him.
 
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Outsider said:
STONE OF DESTINY 428 Nm 5 run ..4/1 Jamie Spencer.
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Completely agree, Outsider. I put the following out this morning to my circle of family/friends:

I wanted to check out this race even though it isn’t on TV and isn’t particularly valuable. These have all been running in the big sprints this season but maybe need a wee drop in class to get their head back in front. Stone Of Destiny, however, has been very unlucky more than once, looking a cert to win when things fall right for him, and as a result might need to go back up the weights to make the cut for the Portland which he won off 93 in 2020. He spent last year largely in better company with a rating of 106 at its peak and was beaten only four lengths in the King’s Stand. In September, he was beaten only 1¼ lengths in a fast-run handicap at Haydock off 101. There’s no market yet for the race but if he isn’t favourite he is a bet.

There's still only a couple of firms coming up with odds but that 4/1 is BIG.
 
That race is horrible at the front end. Mum Tipple never wins and Ingra Tor has lost his form since beating Harry Three. I'll follow you both in, doubled him with Churchill Bay who's a tracker horse I mentioned on Gigi's thread (Wolves 7.20)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Ripon 2.50 - Misty Grey 14/1, 5 places, BOG - I always like this race because it’s quirky. I’m looking for something that acts here and I prefer a higher draw, both allied to a decent mark. CD winner Misty Grey (14/1) ticks all those boxes even though his best form is on the all-weather but he hit a career peak last time dropped back to six furlongs in a very strongly run race and for me there's no conclusive evidence he needs an artificial surface. He might just be on the up. Justanotherbottle is likely to set the race up for him. Blackrod (7/1) was only 11/2 for the Wokingham but didn’t quite run his race there and I have to wonder why he has changed stables since that run. He’s obviously the danger on the ratings but is drawn on the other rail. Summerghand is also handicapped to win another big one and could well get away with a penalty in the Ayr Gold Cup on his best form but he too is drawn wrong for me. I think Misty Grey is a stonking each-way bet at the price with the best place terms on offer.
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Into 9/1 tops. Nice to have it at least onside.
 
Indian Creak - 2.50 Ripon - 28/1 Ew

Eldrickjones - 3.25 Ripon 20/1 Ew

Jukebox Jive - 7.30 Tramore 25/1 ew

Walnut Beach - Tramore 8.00 - 6/1 Ew


In the Great St Wilfred, another: Summerghand 11/2 Ew 5 places

My reasoning can be found on my blog.

Cheers
 
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Tiber Flow 3.35Nb
Reckon they tried the blinds lto to see if he'd the speed for a gp1 6f.
He hadn't, so the drop in class and the extra furlong look right up his street.
3/1 888bet
 
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yorick said:
indian creak - 2.50 ripon - 28/1 ew

eldrickjones - 3.25 ripon 20/1 ew

jukebox jive - 7.30 tramore 25/1 ew

please note that i have revised the bets for these races as follows:

Indian creak - 2.50 ripon - 20/1 ew 7 places

eldrickjones - 3.25 ripon 14/1 ew 4 places

jukebox jive - 7.30 tramore 20/1 ew 5 places
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Bit off topic, but, curious to know how they are allowed to water courses, if most of the country is in a drought situation ?

If the ground is a danger to horse & rider then a meeting has to be abandoned as in bad weather does it not ?
 
Marb said:
I borderline love Pogo I was onto him last season or the season before and he has turned into an really admirable horse who is very genuine. That said I will follow you on Tiber Flow who hopefully can show the turn of foot required.

I would give Postwick a good mention for Newbury's 1.20. A very lightly raced 3 year old who has bits and pieces of good form, but has been noted as hanging left a couple of times and pulling too free aswell.

It seems to me Postwick like me and so many other talented folk might have a small screw loose, so I am going to forgive him and back him tomorrow to out-run the decent odds in what is a winnable race. Hopefully his trainer can start to get the best out of him.
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Boom boom shake the room.
 
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