What are you backing Today? Part 2
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Hmm, Misty Grey beyond disappointing there. Never looked happy. Ground? Turf? Bounce?
I think I may have saw him stumble after a furlong looked like he was on his knees but he was already scrubbed along by his jockey. He just looked really out of sorts didn't he. Too bad to be true. I reckon he lost his action aswell.
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barjon
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Nice one Marb.
barjon
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Horrible! Flattered to deceive last time and back to showing nothing.
Desert Orchid
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Mixed emotions watching that. Exasperation at how it fell out of the stalls then not keen on Probert taking it to the far side to challenge then counting my money a furlong and a half out but disappointment when the run came to nothing. I'll be interested in the sectionals. I reckon he was quickening past others at the fastest part of the race and was the best horse in that race at the weights. I can't see him getting into the Ayr Gold Cup unless they're waiting to pick up a penalty after the weights come out.
On the upside, he'll be a bigger price than he should be next time.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Well done Marb and a good price.....Misty Grey was outpaced at halfway and never going on the turf
Weird selection when he's only won on turf once in his life and that was in a lowly class 4 race.
Emperor Spirit could be the one to take out of the race.
Weird selection when he's only won on turf once in his life and that was in a lowly class 4 race.
Emperor Spirit could be the one to take out of the race.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I can't explain that. Jumby? He had nowhere near the form to win that.
One of those races, Euro.
He's a colt with top class handicap form on his day, and as we know especially over these sprint distances sometimes there's not a lot between a top handicapper and a Group 3 or even Group 2 horse. I should have backed him but that's a form of aftertiming.
Look at Rohaan. Even look at Gale Force Maya.
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jinnyj
Senior Jockey
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I had to turn over.....
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I'm almost done here. I didn't like Pogo but if he'd won fair enough, I can't handle getting done by a horse who nowhere near had the form to win that.
Rohaan is not a handicapper, he should have been in the Platinum Jubilee.
Rohaan is not a handicapper, he should have been in the Platinum Jubilee.
Desert Orchid
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Yeh, I was just checking my ratings table to see where it figured. I thought after I saw an earlier race that the shading on the surface at Newbury is a marker for better ground on the near side. Nothing is winning beyond that shaded area. Tiber Flow left Pogo for dead over there and got nowhere near the winner.
Run To Freedom, like 5000-1 earlier, missed the break and was never getting close after that. He also raced on the far side and I'm going to ignore the run.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He doesn't even stay 7f in top handicaps.
Yes it's hard to take I'm just saying the clue to this is how often the big showcase handicaps have group horses in them and this is why every now and then you get these odd results in group 3s and even 2s.
I guess you could maybe say the horses with regular top handicap form are probably worth several pounds more than their ratings when needing to be assessed for group 3s and group 2s.
There's hundreds or thousands of these Jumby types that will take in a group 3 or listed race each year though.
The majority lose but every now and then one will go in and usually at a price we kick ourselves for not having it on side.
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Desert Orchid
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He was a distance winner but that isn't usually over-significant.
This is how I (MON) had the race, compared with RPRs:
[TABLE="width: 439"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Pogo[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Run To Freedom[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Happy Romance[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Double Or Bubble
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]? +p
[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Primo Bacio[/TD]
[TD]103[/TD]
[TD]114[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jumby[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chindit[/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dubai Poet[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tiber Flow[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wings Of War[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
I've highlighted in red the ones that raced on that far side of the cut strip.
With DOB out, if I'm right about that far side, then Jumby has only had the iffy Primo nd Happy Romance to beat. That might explain the result.
This is how I (MON) had the race, compared with RPRs:
[TABLE="width: 439"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Pogo[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Run To Freedom[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Happy Romance[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Double Or Bubble
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]? +p
[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Primo Bacio[/TD]
[TD]103[/TD]
[TD]114[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jumby[/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chindit[/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dubai Poet[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tiber Flow[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wings Of War[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
I've highlighted in red the ones that raced on that far side of the cut strip.
With DOB out, if I'm right about that far side, then Jumby has only had the iffy Primo nd Happy Romance to beat. That might explain the result.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He was 9/1. Wtf, was a 20s chance on form. I know it's isolated but a lot of them results and I'm fucked.
Desert Orchid
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I'm sharing your pain, Euro. The races are playing out like the Shergar Cup.
Its because Jumby got the 106 rating through a career in which this was achieved through the handicap route.
He is obviously a 110 horse at least and has finally shown it today.
Vice versa are some of the others over rated based on their group form.
Pogo was one who came through the handicap route. Today probably the first sign he is getting on a bit.
I share everyone's pain aswell I reckon the best thing we can all do bar pack the game in is see what has finished close to Jumby when he has ran well and put it in our tracker!!
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I can't have that
The horse that Jumby finished third to in the Bunbury Cup called Bless Him, then finished second to James Fanshawe's Fresh in the International Stakes handicap at Ascot.
Now if this horse Fresh doesn't win some form of a group race before the end of next season can someone please remind me that I said I'd pack the game in.
Fresh is entered up in the Ayr Gold Cup funnily enough.
Now if this horse Fresh doesn't win some form of a group race before the end of next season can someone please remind me that I said I'd pack the game in.
Fresh is entered up in the Ayr Gold Cup funnily enough.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
And Montassib who was behind him at Newmarket got beat comfortable in a crappy Shergar Cup handicap. It's hum drum handicap form.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Nice of Jamie to be alert coming out the stalls.
Documenting was fifth in that Ascot race now come out and won easy today.
So the fourth horse Northern Express is another one of interest. He was fourth behind Dark Shift at Ascot and been running in plenty top handicaps. He is a 10/1 shot for a handicap at York on Thursday.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The race Documenting won was horrendous. Gisburn was below form because of ground and Hannon and Dance Fever didn't show up. This whole Newbury card I'd throw out. Horses nowadays maybe not used to running on ground that fast.