What are you backing Today? Part 2
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Who is David Menuisier you may ask? If Sunway Ascot 4.15 was trained by Charlie Appelby he'd be 2/1 on tomorrow.
He was as grren as grass at Sandown taking ages to get the hang of things but when the penny dropped he finished with great purpose.
He'll have learned a lot from that and I think he'll kick the favourite and the others into touch without any problem.
Big gamble for me taken 9/2 4/1 and 7/2
He was as grren as grass at Sandown taking ages to get the hang of things but when the penny dropped he finished with great purpose.
He'll have learned a lot from that and I think he'll kick the favourite and the others into touch without any problem.
Big gamble for me taken 9/2 4/1 and 7/2
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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No time to follow the thread today but super stuff, Outsider. Chuffed for you. Enjoy your winnings!
chaumi
Rookie
[Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
Asadjumeria 640y 20/1
scenic 715y 33/1]
Bonza mon brave
Nice work, Outsider.
Thanks all. No Marb I didnt get bog.and I didnt win much.Asadjumirah was my main one and I did an ew yankee and that one in the 245U would have boosted it.still think it should of been awarded 2nd considering how close to the line he fell off.
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
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4.45 Newmarket-Sherood @ 10-3 [Coral]
Progressing race by race
Progressing race by race
I see The Big Board, who myself and DO talked about last time and how that race was run, well she runs in the 5.25 at Ascot today. I was of the view then the form would work out, and I think the 4lbs rise was fair enough, so will stick her in the Saturday super heinz. She could give Badri a nice form boost aswell.
Fresh and Escobar for me in the big handicap. Escobar has too much Ascot form to be easily discounted, especially if that man again O Meara has him right.
I was sweet on Deauville Legend e/w for the big one earlier in the week but he's easy to back. I think it's unlikely he can shake up this field. I will have to stick Auguste Rodin in the Super Heinz.
Good luck all today enjoy the racing.
Fresh and Escobar for me in the big handicap. Escobar has too much Ascot form to be easily discounted, especially if that man again O Meara has him right.
I was sweet on Deauville Legend e/w for the big one earlier in the week but he's easy to back. I think it's unlikely he can shake up this field. I will have to stick Auguste Rodin in the Super Heinz.
Good luck all today enjoy the racing.
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barjon
Rookie
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Given Shadwell’s slimmed down policy of keeping the best it’s maybe telling that they have held on to Aflaila - 3:15 York - through injury. Potentially top notch he might be ring rusty, but 5/1 is a decent price to find out. At least a careful watch.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I think all my bets are now on so happy to share my thoughts on the following races (written between Thursday evening/Friday morning):
ASC 3.00 - Fresh must be infuriating for punters following him towards the cliff. He always seems strongly supported in the market but how often does he actually run his race? He won two in a row over this CD last summer but was beaten in his eight previous and five subsequent races. In those eight previous runs he never started at longer than 9/1, was a well-beaten 4/1 favourite in the Wokingham and was subsequently hammered at 11/4f in the £200k Nastro Azzuro here. He was finishing to some purpose here in the Wokingham last time and that probably explains his short price here, and he is now handicapped to win a race of this nature again. I just think he might be vulnerable to improvers but I also suspect he will have the draw in his favour. Baradar will love the ground and merits every respect, with the new headgear and excellent jockey up. The draw might be a problem but Saint Lawrence won the Wokingham from a high draw, working over to middle-to-far through the race. That might be how this race unfolds, although I’d like to see one or two of the jockeys on the higher draws sticking to the near rail to see how that pans out. I’m looking for something to hit 125 on the scale and the ones that appeal most are Biggles and Ramazan on current form, with Fools Rush In, Popmaster and Orbaan on the pick of their old form interesting at big prices although I’ll probably let the Goldie horse go as he just looks past it. I’m going to include Spirit Of Light, though. His claimer has had three wins (23%) and three placers from just 13 rides in this, his first, season and could be a name to watch out for going forward. His claim could bring the 50/1 shot right into the mix. Nor would I rule out Zu Run at massive odds, its being a totally unexposed 3yo representing a brilliant trainer who has engaged arguably the strongest lightweight jockey in the game. *
ASC 3.40 - This is a very decent renewal but, for me, hardly the “race of the ages” being bandied about in the media, but, of course, their job is to hype events in order to increase viewing figures. When you consider that the real greats were rated in the mid-high 130s up to the mid-140s (Mill Reef, for example) it puts this renewal into perspective. It’s a strong, very competitive race - I rather harshly referred to it as a glorified handicap earlier in the week on the forum – and should be a compelling spectacle. I thought about taking 20/1 Westover at the 5-day dec stage but can let 14s go. I see some pundits are suggesting Hamish, due to the conditions, but it’s hard to see him running to better than 120 and everything else failing to run their race. William Muir’s enthusiasm for Pyledriver is very infectious. I thought his post-Harwicke interview was brilliant and he reiterated his strong view that the horse was nowhere near fit that day in a stable tour piece during the week. The top three combine at very marginally better than evens (48%) at best odds and I could see a pro punter being interested in that. I think I’d rather take that than the price about Auguste Rodin to improve past them. I’m already cringing at the expectation that pundits who should know better will refer to the 3yos getting a “huge/massive/advantageous*” – *delete according to preference – weight allowance. Adayar was the only 3yo, having just won the Derby, in the last five years to win and the two he beat were rated 122. The previous one was the exceptional Enable and before her Taghrooda nine years ago, whose two main rivals were rated 123 (Telescope, arguably over-rated for winning a poor Hardwicke) and the disappointing [on the day] Magician (124}. That’s not to say one of them can’t win; just that they have plenty to do relative to their odds. Put a gun to my head for one horse to win and I’d say Hukum.
ASC 4.50 - This could be a tricky race. Most of these hold entries for either or both the Golden Mile at Goodwood or the Clipper at York, each of which is worth £150k, and a rating in the mid-90s is likely to be safe. Interestingly enough, the minimum penalty for Goodwood is only 3lbs while at York it is 6lbs but any penalty will be unwelcome for anything likely to make the cut. I’ve indicated the entries in the new column (E): G (for Goodwood), Y (York) and 2 for a G2 entry. Akhu [Bless you!!] Najla is entered in the Celebration Stakes so is clearly thought better than a handicapper and probably up to winning this first time up before going on to bigger and better. Rodaballo ran in G2s at Meydan so I’m wondering what has been going on behind the scenes to tempt the connections into entering the horse for a clutch of races here when the trainer has only had one runner, a no-hoper, here before. Lowton is the curve horse but has plenty to find although he might be up against a group just trying to preserve their mark. Akhu Najla gets the vote.
ASC 5.25 - The BO column might be a bit meaningless since only Hills are pricing up the race at the time of writing. Nonetheless, I will be backing Bergerac. He was only two lengths off the winner in the Ayr Gold Cup off 98 and still on a slight curve at that point. Trying to make all, he was still in front half a furlong out with only Commanche Falls for company but his front-running tactics took their toll and the pair were overtaken by the closers on the near side who had been ridden more conservatively. He’s worth a further slight mark-up for that. There has to be a fair chance his season has been geared around that race this season but he’ll now need a penalty to get in and Callan looks a serious jockey booking. Call Me Ginger is a pound lower than when winning this race last year so has to carry a saver. I’m not sure what to make of Khunan and Significantly and their meeting at Haydock when they drew well clear in a fast time. I suspect Significantly benefited from the ‘golden highway’ that appeared to favour Little Big Bear earlier in the season so fancy Khunan to reverse the form but he didn’t frank it next time although maybe that race came too soon. Still, he’s only had a week to get over that too. Rock Melody is too short to be of betting interest but he might improve enough to get in the mix. The top two against the field will do me.
York 2.40 - I feel an episode of Rab C Nesbit coming on… “’Dash’?!...’Dash’ is it?! Let me tell you ’is, boy, let me tell you ’is… If ’is is a ‘dash’ then Mary Doll is bloody Usain Bolt, fur chrisakes…”
The whole idea of applying the word ‘dash’ should surely be limited to the fastest five furlong tracks in the country like Epsom, Brighton, York, even, but surely not a six furlongs race anywhere? I suppose a second-rate 6f handicap needs some kind of hype for the ITV team to slaver over in the build-up but, as Rab C might have said, “fur chri…. “
Anyway, rant over. I’m happy to stick with Lucky Man. Atzeni looks a solid booking. I think Summerghand is targeting the Goodwood-Ayr double. He can win narrowly at Goodwood (off 100) and get in at Ayr off a marginal rise because a penalty will apply to his current mark of 97. The entries aren’t out for Ayr yet but it’s nigh on impossible that he won’t attempt to defend his crown with Tudhope up. Mondammej is better at five. Zarzyni might be a bigger danger having dropped 12lbs from this time last year and with Marquand booked. He’s worth a bet too at a nice price for one of his ability. I can’t make a strong case for anything else.
York 3.15 - This is one of those races whose form comes from all sorts of iffy contests that generate more questions than answers. I should probably leave the race alone but 4/1 Royal Champion is too tempting. People will say I’m over-rating his Wolferton win but he did it easily enough from Bolshoi Ballet who was trying for his life and now runs in the King George. I would argue that My Prospero was flattered by his run against Bay Bridge and Adayar. He was only 114 at that point but went up to 122 for it yet has done nothing to show he’s at that level since. I’m more afraid of Alflaila but he’s a bit short for what he has to find.
The one I fancy the most strongly (and was briefly tempted to put on the odds-on thread before coming to my senses) is Akhu Najla.
I might play about with multiples.
ASC 3.00 - Fresh must be infuriating for punters following him towards the cliff. He always seems strongly supported in the market but how often does he actually run his race? He won two in a row over this CD last summer but was beaten in his eight previous and five subsequent races. In those eight previous runs he never started at longer than 9/1, was a well-beaten 4/1 favourite in the Wokingham and was subsequently hammered at 11/4f in the £200k Nastro Azzuro here. He was finishing to some purpose here in the Wokingham last time and that probably explains his short price here, and he is now handicapped to win a race of this nature again. I just think he might be vulnerable to improvers but I also suspect he will have the draw in his favour. Baradar will love the ground and merits every respect, with the new headgear and excellent jockey up. The draw might be a problem but Saint Lawrence won the Wokingham from a high draw, working over to middle-to-far through the race. That might be how this race unfolds, although I’d like to see one or two of the jockeys on the higher draws sticking to the near rail to see how that pans out. I’m looking for something to hit 125 on the scale and the ones that appeal most are Biggles and Ramazan on current form, with Fools Rush In, Popmaster and Orbaan on the pick of their old form interesting at big prices although I’ll probably let the Goldie horse go as he just looks past it. I’m going to include Spirit Of Light, though. His claimer has had three wins (23%) and three placers from just 13 rides in this, his first, season and could be a name to watch out for going forward. His claim could bring the 50/1 shot right into the mix. Nor would I rule out Zu Run at massive odds, its being a totally unexposed 3yo representing a brilliant trainer who has engaged arguably the strongest lightweight jockey in the game. *
ASC 3.40 - This is a very decent renewal but, for me, hardly the “race of the ages” being bandied about in the media, but, of course, their job is to hype events in order to increase viewing figures. When you consider that the real greats were rated in the mid-high 130s up to the mid-140s (Mill Reef, for example) it puts this renewal into perspective. It’s a strong, very competitive race - I rather harshly referred to it as a glorified handicap earlier in the week on the forum – and should be a compelling spectacle. I thought about taking 20/1 Westover at the 5-day dec stage but can let 14s go. I see some pundits are suggesting Hamish, due to the conditions, but it’s hard to see him running to better than 120 and everything else failing to run their race. William Muir’s enthusiasm for Pyledriver is very infectious. I thought his post-Harwicke interview was brilliant and he reiterated his strong view that the horse was nowhere near fit that day in a stable tour piece during the week. The top three combine at very marginally better than evens (48%) at best odds and I could see a pro punter being interested in that. I think I’d rather take that than the price about Auguste Rodin to improve past them. I’m already cringing at the expectation that pundits who should know better will refer to the 3yos getting a “huge/massive/advantageous*” – *delete according to preference – weight allowance. Adayar was the only 3yo, having just won the Derby, in the last five years to win and the two he beat were rated 122. The previous one was the exceptional Enable and before her Taghrooda nine years ago, whose two main rivals were rated 123 (Telescope, arguably over-rated for winning a poor Hardwicke) and the disappointing [on the day] Magician (124}. That’s not to say one of them can’t win; just that they have plenty to do relative to their odds. Put a gun to my head for one horse to win and I’d say Hukum.
ASC 4.50 - This could be a tricky race. Most of these hold entries for either or both the Golden Mile at Goodwood or the Clipper at York, each of which is worth £150k, and a rating in the mid-90s is likely to be safe. Interestingly enough, the minimum penalty for Goodwood is only 3lbs while at York it is 6lbs but any penalty will be unwelcome for anything likely to make the cut. I’ve indicated the entries in the new column (E): G (for Goodwood), Y (York) and 2 for a G2 entry. Akhu [Bless you!!] Najla is entered in the Celebration Stakes so is clearly thought better than a handicapper and probably up to winning this first time up before going on to bigger and better. Rodaballo ran in G2s at Meydan so I’m wondering what has been going on behind the scenes to tempt the connections into entering the horse for a clutch of races here when the trainer has only had one runner, a no-hoper, here before. Lowton is the curve horse but has plenty to find although he might be up against a group just trying to preserve their mark. Akhu Najla gets the vote.
ASC 5.25 - The BO column might be a bit meaningless since only Hills are pricing up the race at the time of writing. Nonetheless, I will be backing Bergerac. He was only two lengths off the winner in the Ayr Gold Cup off 98 and still on a slight curve at that point. Trying to make all, he was still in front half a furlong out with only Commanche Falls for company but his front-running tactics took their toll and the pair were overtaken by the closers on the near side who had been ridden more conservatively. He’s worth a further slight mark-up for that. There has to be a fair chance his season has been geared around that race this season but he’ll now need a penalty to get in and Callan looks a serious jockey booking. Call Me Ginger is a pound lower than when winning this race last year so has to carry a saver. I’m not sure what to make of Khunan and Significantly and their meeting at Haydock when they drew well clear in a fast time. I suspect Significantly benefited from the ‘golden highway’ that appeared to favour Little Big Bear earlier in the season so fancy Khunan to reverse the form but he didn’t frank it next time although maybe that race came too soon. Still, he’s only had a week to get over that too. Rock Melody is too short to be of betting interest but he might improve enough to get in the mix. The top two against the field will do me.
York 2.40 - I feel an episode of Rab C Nesbit coming on… “’Dash’?!...’Dash’ is it?! Let me tell you ’is, boy, let me tell you ’is… If ’is is a ‘dash’ then Mary Doll is bloody Usain Bolt, fur chrisakes…”
The whole idea of applying the word ‘dash’ should surely be limited to the fastest five furlong tracks in the country like Epsom, Brighton, York, even, but surely not a six furlongs race anywhere? I suppose a second-rate 6f handicap needs some kind of hype for the ITV team to slaver over in the build-up but, as Rab C might have said, “fur chri…. “
Anyway, rant over. I’m happy to stick with Lucky Man. Atzeni looks a solid booking. I think Summerghand is targeting the Goodwood-Ayr double. He can win narrowly at Goodwood (off 100) and get in at Ayr off a marginal rise because a penalty will apply to his current mark of 97. The entries aren’t out for Ayr yet but it’s nigh on impossible that he won’t attempt to defend his crown with Tudhope up. Mondammej is better at five. Zarzyni might be a bigger danger having dropped 12lbs from this time last year and with Marquand booked. He’s worth a bet too at a nice price for one of his ability. I can’t make a strong case for anything else.
York 3.15 - This is one of those races whose form comes from all sorts of iffy contests that generate more questions than answers. I should probably leave the race alone but 4/1 Royal Champion is too tempting. People will say I’m over-rating his Wolferton win but he did it easily enough from Bolshoi Ballet who was trying for his life and now runs in the King George. I would argue that My Prospero was flattered by his run against Bay Bridge and Adayar. He was only 114 at that point but went up to 122 for it yet has done nothing to show he’s at that level since. I’m more afraid of Alflaila but he’s a bit short for what he has to find.
The one I fancy the most strongly (and was briefly tempted to put on the odds-on thread before coming to my senses) is Akhu Najla.
I might play about with multiples.
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I'm with DO on Lucky Man in the next at York. This horse showed plenty talent last season and 93 is still a workable mark I hope.
Please not another second or third. I have had too many of them recently. I'd honestly rather finish nowhere at the moment.
Please not another second or third. I have had too many of them recently. I'd honestly rather finish nowhere at the moment.
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I remember mentioning a long shot on this forum last summer by the name of System. I wrote three paragraphs on her so must have fancied her. She got beat a neck at 50/1 by none other than Random Harvest who was running off a handicap mark of 85 then.
What a game this is eh.
What a game this is eh.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
No surprise Biggles 9/2 is clear favourite for Ascot's 3.00.
He looked like getting into all sorts of trouble 2 furlongs out in the Bunbury Cup but Ryan Moore somehow avoided most of it.
Once he got through he showed a great turn of foot giving me the impression he has really come of age and even a group 3 may not be beyond him even at this stage of his life.
If I am wrong he'll lose today but I expect him to win doing hand stands
He looked like getting into all sorts of trouble 2 furlongs out in the Bunbury Cup but Ryan Moore somehow avoided most of it.
Once he got through he showed a great turn of foot giving me the impression he has really come of age and even a group 3 may not be beyond him even at this stage of his life.
If I am wrong he'll lose today but I expect him to win doing hand stands
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I don't know about 'doing hand stands' but he is, for me, the most likely winner.
barjon
Rookie
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What a bummer. Vey unusual for me to back long price horse, but I did have a tiny bet on Soul Seeker in the 2.05 York 25/1 only to find it “suspended” in my Sky account. Apparently when it came up “do you accept price change” I was supposed to re-enter stake etc - can’t recall that before - so according to them I didn’t make a bet. How convenient.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Hammered the far side.
That's a sickener, Barj.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The drift on Baradar was very strange given the times of the earlier races.