What are you backing Today? Part 2

Outsider said:
I've just took a 27 ew .I'd rather it be a mile though.
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fully agreed, yeah. But the York race was 10f, and if memory is correct I think he ran a good one once over 10 in Dubai. If they let him set a comfortable pace in front, he stays. Actually came back at Marhaba at York. but do the legs still have it?
 
chaumi said:
fully agreed, yeah. But the York race was 10f, and if memory is correct I think he ran a good one once over 10 in Dubai. If they let him set a comfortable pace in front, he stays. Actually came back at Marhaba at York. but do the legs still have it?
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I wonder if the Cambridgeshire is on the agenda.8th in 2021 off 8lb higher.
Being an ex Johnson horse it could be just knackered
2021/2022 24 runs.
 
Outsider said:
I wonder if the Cambridgeshire is on the agenda.8th in 2021 off 8lb higher.
Being an ex Johnson horse it could be just knackered
2021/2022 24 runs.
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Yeah, that's possible. Think I made a balls up here though - Mostawaa (who I discounted this time for the win) was always going to be forcing it and I'm thinking possibly Maries's can only get the 10f when having a comfortable enough time in front. 9 might be dead on somewhere, but hard to see it in a Cambridgeshire field. Let's see.
 
Runninwild 6.35 Thirsk Best now 14s, was 16 last night (and opened 25 BF Sportsbook, but I'd already missed it)

Only a matter of time before he takes another sprint. This looks well within his league. And Ann Duffield has had a couple run well in the last week, including Master Richard in the Newm Class 2 last weekend. Possibly faint signals that the yard can come into some consistent form.

But...

Runnin doesn't like give.
And last night the reported conditions were GS. (been pulled several times on account of ground, so we'll assume Ann is confident he doesn't like it)
Today, the FC has changed to possible light rain, but possibly also mainly dry through the day. Reported ground now good (but we all know that might not be worth the paper it's printed on)
Insignificant rain and a generally dry day may be enough to dry it out to the point where he'll run.

Sensible approach - wait till first races and see what it's like.
Risk - by then, the 14s might be single figures (or even 30s, ofc)

I just hope beyond hope that he doesn't run, run well, and mess the price for a race on GF (if that's what he really needs)
tbh I hope Ann pulls him today and that solves the problem.
 
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Rhoscolyn class4 hood came off late
Escobar a winnable race hood came off late
Nomadic empire class 4 winnable stands still as stalls opened.

What have the 3 got in common.?
 
A couple I've done tomorrow both at each way prices, both seem to be shortening up too which gives me a confidence boost.

Snash (Ripon 2.40) now dropped to a really exploitable mark. I've chanced him to return to his best form and then some tomorrow. He did take 6 or 7 runs to get going last season, winning two class 3s at Thirsk and Ayr after a really slow start to the season. He's now had about 7 runs this season, so going by last season, he may come good soon, especially off this handicap mark now. Fingers crossed.

I have a nice each way price on Witch Hunter in the 3.35 at Newbury and he has really shortened the past few hours. That was some run when winning at huge odds at Royal Ascot in a competative handicap. He is usually slow from the stalls and hangs right in his races, so I am upgrading his form a bit, thinking that he is better than the bare results or ratings. I also think Hannon can find a bit more improvement from him.

I can see weaknesses or question marks on the market leaders..e.g has Chindit peaked soon enough, has Pogo lost his best form, will Jumby run his best race again etc.

So I see the angle to take them on with Witch Hunter, even with his hanging right tendency plus slow starts. I think there's a big run from him to give here.
 
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Couple of tracker horses out tomorrow at Newbury who were a bit disappointing last time out when I was on but there are reasons for a bit of confidence with them both. Harry Brown was 4lbs out of the handicap at Ascot but races off the correct mark in the 2.25 but I don't like Hayley Turner on sprinters so stakes are lower. Lion Kingdom in the 4.40 stayed on really well in his last race at Newmarket and this step up to 12 should suit. Worth a go at 6s.

I'm also on Marbaan in the Hungerford (cannot have Chindit, Jumby or Pogo) and Klondike in the Geoff Freer where Arrest was also backed at 7/2 in a couple of multis before the price crash.
 
Snash was an eyecatching placer there, running on well for fifth. He might be a horse for the Ayr Bronze Cup now from a mark in the mid 70s or thereabouts.
 
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Of course one of the Arrest doubles was with Classic in the 3.00. It was an ew double at 7/2 and 7/1. Rule 4s fair enough. Pat Dobbs though, why did I bother.
 
Marb said:
A couple I've done tomorrow both at each way prices, both seem to be shortening up too which gives me a confidence boost.

Snash (Ripon 2.40) now dropped to a really exploitable mark. I've chanced him to return to his best form and then some tomorrow. He did take 6 or 7 runs to get going last season, winning two class 3s at Thirsk and Ayr after a really slow start to the season. He's now had about 7 runs this season, so going by last season, he may come good soon, especially off this handicap mark now. Fingers crossed.

I have a nice each way price on Witch Hunter in the 3.35 at Newbury and he has really shortened the past few hours. That was some run when winning at huge odds at Royal Ascot in a competative handicap. He is usually slow from the stalls and hangs right in his races, so I am upgrading his form a bit, thinking that he is better than the bare results or ratings. I also think Hannon can find a bit more improvement from him.

I can see weaknesses or question marks on the market leaders..e.g has Chindit peaked soon enough, has Pogo lost his best form, will Jumby run his best race again etc.

So I see the angle to take them on with Witch Hunter, even with his hanging right tendency plus slow starts. I think there's a big run from him to give here.
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Back of the net! Get in.
 
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Really hot little race at Deauville tomorrow and prices (B365) are interesting, shame about the heavy going though.

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I rate Pons Aelius chance in the lucky last at Sandown tomorrow. He's a horse we should keep on side.

He has plenty of good form, including with the useful yardstick Adjuvant, from earlier this season at Newmarket. He just got outstayed that day but the form is solid.

A right handed track like Sandown should suit Pon Aelius down to the ground. A mark of 82 is fair and he could prove very hard to pass from the front tomorrow.

He is also entered at York on Wednesday over a longer trip, but see how he runs tomorrow first. I'd be surprised if he ran in both, but you never know.

Saratoga Gold is in this same race tomorrow. I think he is capable on his day, but I much prefer the Mark Johnston horse. I am unsure how Saratoga Gold will handle possible cut in the ground at a track like Sandown here, where he has run poorly before. He has a big weight aswell after being clobbered by the handicapper for an easy win at Kempton, plus he has a bit to prove after a very below par run the last day.
 
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Terrific 2YO race at Deauville this afternoon - shame about the heavy going, so it’ll probably just be a watch if I can resist Vandeek :) (prices were last night btw.)

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