What are you backing Today? Part 2

Aintree 12.55 - Riders Onthe Storm 14/1, 4pl - First time up for a new trainer and with the first-time tongue-tie might be the time to catch him. He did look like going places two seasons back and was only 11/1 for the Ryanair that season when he suffered two episodes of bad luck early on, the latter causing him to fall. That seemed to put him off the game if his subsequent form is anything to go by but he was rated 162 at that point so the handicapper has given him a real chance (147 here) if the old enthusiasm (if he ever had any!) can be rekindled. I meant to back him yesterday at teatime but was working on getting my figures and thoughts typed out and by the time I went to back him later in the evening he was blue and single figures across the board. I'm surprised he's showing at the price again but would be sick if I missed the opportunity.
 
The Many Clouds is fascinating now with the overnight rain at Aintree. It brings Native River right into it and Sam Brown also as Protektorat, IA and Simply the Betts are all very dubious stayers over this trip on rain softened ground.
 
I'm on at Sandown but to pass the time I am going to see how much I can turn 100 points into.

a point can be anything you like.

The idea is to back aprox 3 trebles the start again with the original stake.

Bets can be for a win a place a dutch..no holds barred.

Bet No.1 50pts @ 1.34 Richmond for 3 places Aintree 11.15

Balance 115.90pts win or 50pts if lose

something has bolted prices are all over the place...took 1.34 fpr 3 places

Richmond Place finished 3rd Next bet 65.90 pts Ask me early 2 places 1.33 Chepstow 11.38am

Balance 186.22pts 1 win or 50pts if lose

Ask Me Early finished 1st

Final Leg 86.22pts of treble on Might I @ 1.31 for 3 places

Balance if win 221.21 pts 50pts if lose

Might I 2nd WITHDRAW 100pts

Balance 121.21 pts

Next Bet 71.21 win Elimay @1.48

Elimay lost Prifit 50 pts

50pts 4 places 1.96 shiroccos Dream Sandown

Profit 94.88 if win Zero if lose

94.88 pts @ 1.39 3 places Take your Time

Take your Time finsihed 1st

Profit 129.48

Final Bet 129.48 pts @ 1.71

Possible profit 215.44 or zero loss
 
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Euronymous said:
The Many Clouds is fascinating now with the overnight rain at Aintree. It brings Native River right into it and Sam Brown also as Protektorat, IA and Simply the Betts are all very dubious stayers over this trip on rain softened ground.
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I'm really surprised Native River is fav. He'a had a togh old life over the years and they're asking him to do it all agin

Would be nice if he could pull it off but I have to go with the younger Imperial Aura
 
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True but the ground is very soft now and his three market rivals are all very questionable at the trip. IA is the likeliest to stay given his running style but I'm not confident even though I have a nice price about him.
 
I’m hoping they can get another win from him. Imperial Aura has failed to complete in each of his last three runs and IMO is a doubtful stayer. Protektorat and Simply the Betts also doubtful stayers and I don’t believe Sam Brown is good enough for this


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Desert Orchid said:
Aintree 12.55 - Riders Onthe Storm 14/1, 4pl - First time up for a new trainer and with the first-time tongue-tie might be the time to catch him. He did look like going places two seasons back and was only 11/1 for the Ryanair that season when he suffered two episodes of bad luck early on, the latter causing him to fall. That seemed to put him off the game if his subsequent form is anything to go by but he was rated 162 at that point so the handicapper has given him a real chance (147 here) if the old enthusiasm (if he ever had any!) can be rekindled. I meant to back him yesterday at teatime but was working on getting my figures and thoughts typed out and by the time I went to back him later in the evening he was blue and single figures across the board. I'm surprised he's showing at the price again but would be sick if I missed the opportunity.
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Great run for the money. Thought I had it after two out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
4/1 was a helluva price for Protektorat :blink:
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Such an important race/market to analyse.

I backed Third Time Lucki because I knew he was better than his oppo despite doubts about maybe the ground and him being fresh and also tactics but I also knew he would trade much shorter than 3 IR and of course he did.

I knew my IA bet was cooked when the ground softened and I tried to protect (gettit!!) the bet by backing Native River and Sam Brown. However in doing so I ignored my chief punting mantra CLASS WILL OUT.

A very bad day somewhat rescued at least by Conflated.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My strongest fancy for tomorrow is Metier (7/2) in the last at Sandown. Hard to believe this gets to run in a handicap off just 144. I noticed it was 9/2 this afternoon and 4/1 earlier this evening and was going to hold off till the morning but it's shortened again. The Tolworth form hasn't worked out well but he was only 11/2 second favourite to Appreciate It in the Supreme and clearly didn't run his race with the stable out of form at the time. He looked all over a 150+ animal in the Tolworth and likely to develop into a 160-ish in his second-season hence my keenness on him off this mark.
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Wow, I really wasn't expecting the jockey to apply the handbrake going to two out. He did pull a bit in the first mile but that was shocking.
 
Decent renewal of the Peterborough today but I can't see past AMK. Should be odds-on and I reckon 6/5 is buying money.
 
It's been along time coming but Nicky Henderson seems to have found a winning chance fore Call Me Lord at Uttoxeter

The trip looks ideal in the soft ground and the opposition moderate.

First bet of the day has to be harry and Dan in the first with her mares allowance..Get a Tonic can bring in some dough to have af ree bet on Call Me lord
 
I like the chances of Anthony Honeyball's Fanfaron Dino in the heavy ground today.

It's not a great race and he has chaser written all over him

Had an EW bet and if only placed my loss will be a fiver so hopefully I will get a run for my money and he'll come in first
 
I like the chances of Anthony Honeyball's Fanfaron Dino in the heavy ground today.

It's not a great race and he has chaser written all over him

Had an EW bet and if only placed my loss will be a fiver so hopefully I will get a run for my money and he'll come in first
 
My first bet today is in the next at warwick....Bryony Frost rides the second fav that looks way underpriced so I am going with the fav Sant Riquer
 
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