What are you backing Today? Part 2

Quartz Du Rheu 7/2 is slowly climbing up the handicap and gaining plenty experience over vences

The fav Nicky Henderson Valsheda switches to chasing after only 2 runs over hurdles.


He'll no doubt be well schooled but Newbury is a fast galloping track where experince counts for a lot.

Jonjo's Quartz Du Rheu 7/2 looks the safest bet
 
Exeter 1.05
The old boy Trans Express has won this race on the last 4 occasions it’s been run going back to 2016 (meeting was called off one year) and may have dropped to a mark low enough for him to win again. He hasn’t raced with much enthusiasm this year but he’s off 102 having won off 109 last year and may be worth an interest at 10/1 with Betvictor


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Lac De Constance Exeter Novice Hurdle may show enough improvment to go well after a wind op.

Playing safe backed him at 10.5/1 and 5/4 for 4 places with Betfair
 
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Gaillard du Mesnil should win the beginners chase at Naas this afternoon but last season The Big Getaway (who also hit the frame in a Ballymore) was beaten at 8/15 on his first start over fences. Now, it looks like the Bob Olinger Ballymore was a fair bit better than the Envoi Allen edition but there is no guarantees in this game and at 2/5 I'd like to have a go at getting GdM beat today. Indiana Jones went into the tracker after a good run behind Mr Incredible over c/d in early Nov' and although the winner of that race didn't do much for the form behind Ahoy Senor and IJ himself was a tad disappointing when getting collared by Busselton at Punchy (I was disappointed anyway after backing him), actually the run was ok - the third that day Jeremy's Flame split (at an sp of 18/1) Concertista and Magic Daze at Cork in a good Mares Chase. 8/1 is fair for small stakes.
 
viking said:
Exeter 1.05
The old boy Trans Express has won this race on the last 4 occasions it’s been run going back to 2016 (meeting was called off one year) and may have dropped to a mark low enough for him to win again. He hasn’t raced with much enthusiasm this year but he’s off 102 having won off 109 last year and may be worth an interest at 10/1 with Betvictor


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Click to expand...

Did a lot better than his runs to date this season. Just my luck backing him win only as I thought he’d be tailed off if not up to winning


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The bookies seem to have had a rush of blood to the head making Jonbon odds on today.

10/1 against ILTVI winning must also seem crazy to anyone who fancies him

Paul Nicholls make no secret he fancies his to win

You can never rule the Skeltons out and Colonel Mustard who is their looking for luckies should be twice the odds.

If as I suspect if Jonbon hits evens I will have a good bet on him

I will have a forecast bet on Jonbon with ILTMI which could pay a decent dividend.


Pic Dorhy looks like starting fav today but it seems to me only because he would have won had he not fallen at Newbury.
However it was anything but a hot Novice and he wasn't that fancied and went of at 7/2 in a four horse ordinary race.

Favior who has a tendancy to jump left went to Cheltenham but ran a stinker but bounce back on a RH track after a wind op.

Both have question marks against them so I suggest backing Gladiateur Allen at around 2/1 in the BF place market to be in the first two

Gladiateur Allen showed real tufness to win his only chase to date and wont go down without a fight.
 
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I think its more likely a case of the owner wanting to have a runner at Ascot.

She sent one of her 3 horses to Cheltenham recently for the Supreme Hurdle and although it finished 3rd it was very well beaten and basically crawled up the hill.

That is what puts me off but we'll soon find out g/l

Nicky does have a weakness grassy will be glad to know....He isn't half covering his ass if Jonbon loses hailing this as a great race despite the huge gaps in the betting.

Gotta have a good answer for Frank Berry and JP if he loses be as well making an excuse now :lol:
 
It’s a hot little race the Ascot novice hurdle, and it’s not too difficult to make a case for all of them. I am, I confess, a little gob-smacked that ILTMI is available at 20/1 this morning. I know he carries a penalty, but even so, that price seems to be rather too dismissive of his chance, and I’ve availed myself of a little each-way this morning.

Unlucky with the alternative against Gaillard yesterday, Euro.
 
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Tanlic said:
The bookies seem to have had a rush of blood to the head making Jonbon odds on today.

10/1 against ILTVI winning must also seem crazy to anyone who fancies him

Paul Nicholls make no secret he fancies his to win

You can never rule the Skeltons out and Colonel Mustard who is their looking for luckies should be twice the odds.

If as I suspect if Jonbon hits evens I will have a good bet on him

I will have a forecast bet on Jonbon with ILTMI which could pay a decent dividend.


Pic Dorhy looks like starting fav today but it seems to me only because he would have won had he not fallen at Newbury.
However it was anything but a hot Novice and he wasn't that fancied and went of at 7/2 in a four horse ordinary race.

Favior who has a tendancy to jump left went to Cheltenham but ran a stinker but bounce back on a RH track after a wind op.

Both have question marks against them so I suggest backing Gladiateur Allen at around 2/1 in the BF place market to be in the first two

Gladiateur Allen showed real tufness to win his only chase to date and wont go down without a fight.
Click to expand...

Jonbon has gone to Evens and is now a backable price.

The bookies have cut 3 others but only slightly and you can bet there's no big meney for any of them

The truth is I never intended opposing Jonbon nor do I think it's as good a race as Henderson is making out.

Jonbon @evens has to be a 3*** bet for me :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
It’s a hot little race the Ascot novice hurdle, and it’s not too difficult to make a case for all of them. I am, I confess, a little gob-smacked that ILTMI is available at 20/1 this morning. I know he carries a penalty, but even so, that price seems to be rather too dismissive of his chance, and I’ve availed myself of a little each-way this morning.

Unlucky with the alternative against Gaillard yesterday, Euro.
Click to expand...

It could have something to do with the fact that in his last 2 races the Skeltons have taken ILTMI on both and the should have an idea what chance there's has.

The difference in price between him and KH is amazing and there's been very little money for KH in the early exchanges

The races ILTMI won at Cheltenham were like Champion Hudles to the ones Knappers Hill won.

You need some stretch of the imagination to have him such a vast difference in price. But being the genius Paul Nicholls is? :)

All I can say if ILTMI is placed in the first two there will be alot of "I should have backed him EW" going around
 
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Despite the fact that they walked round there was only one horse in it. Not a true race, but Jonbon impressive all the same.
 
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Never a worry and Jonbon looked really high class and won as he liked but as I said beforehand Henderson may have been exagerating on how good a race it actually was.

On wards and upward...My Xmas is looking better by the race :)
 
Ascot 1.50 - Zhiguli 12/1 - I managed to get 12/1 to four places earlier today but it looks like it's since been backed. Now 12s tops to three places and blue pretty much across the board. High up my ratings table and a second-season novice who is entitled to improve again. Lots to like.

LW Hurdle - Thomas Darby 13/2 4 places - only Sky and Hills are offering the fourth place (with 8R proviso) and I managed to snaffle a bit of 8/1 earlier. I think Thyme Hill is the one to beat but the extra place in an eight-runner field makes TD a no-brainer for me. Watch him finish fifth...
 
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The big race tomorrow:

ASC 3.35
Horse
OR
MON
167
Notes
RPR
Metier
142
172
? +p nov
163
Tritonic
141
171
? p
156
Samarrive
141
168
+p
157
Benson
133
168
+
[++]
161
Mack The Man
130
168
p?
153
Goshen
153
167
167
Drop The Anchor
146
167
p
156
Llandinabo Lad
140
167
?
159
No Ordinary Joe
136
167
+p nov
157
Global Citizen
136
165
?
{174}
155
Garry Clermont
142
163
p
155
Onemorefortheroad
136
162
p
154
West Cork
141
161
+p
156
Luttrell Lad
135
160
nov
155

<tbody>
</tbody>

I took 20/1 Metier (22/1) during the week and can only cross my fingers and hope for the best. I thought the jockey was very quick to pull on the handbrake last time. Tritonic (14/1) was only 4/1 for a hot Triumph Hurdle and reportedly found the ground too soft. He might also prefer this track. I’m going high with the race won last time by Samarrive (6/1) and he should be in the shake-up. I’ve always had a big figure for Benson (14/1) and I’ve no doubt he’s a plot horse. The first-time visor suggests they might mean business here. Mac The Man (33/1) has had a couple of disappointing seasons but was right back to his best last time, suggesting he might be able to pick up on his old improvement curve. His price is very generous and I’ll definitely have something on. The only other really interesting one, for me, is No Ordinary Joe (9/2f), who pulled hard for a long way yet was still in front approaching the last in the Greatwood, another hot form race. He’s still a novice and another big step forward is entirely possible. It’s a smashing race, as befits the prizemoney, and I wouldn’t put anyone off anything.
 
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