What are you backing Today? Part 2

Unless someone knows something I don't Jonjo must have been biting the ear off Frank Berry to allow Jonjo jnr to ride Champ ahead of Nico.

Champ is way to enegmatic for my liking and likely to come a cropper at anytime. There was some talk about his back but I would look no further than his brain.

Thyne Hill is without a doubt the most consistant staying hurdler in training at the moment but Ronald Pumps 7/2 last visit to the mainland is still fresh in my mind

Another good performance could see him win this.

Alan King will have Messire Des Obeaux in good shape for the 1.15 at Ascot and might have too many guns fpr Gordon Elliot's who's not going there for alook at the grass and the people.

The Daryl Jacobs ridden 2nd fav kicked Protektorat into touch so there's no doubting he has lots of abilty

He's 7/2 with Betfair but for trading isn't off the ground yet but I'll be hoping for about 3/1+
 
Desert Orchid said:
The big race tomorrow:

ASC 3.35


I took 20/1 Metier (22/1) during the week and can only cross my fingers and hope for the best. I thought the jockey was very quick to pull on the handbrake last time. Tritonic (14/1) was only 4/1 for a hot Triumph Hurdle and reportedly found the ground too soft. He might also prefer this track. I’m going high with the race won last time by Samarrive (6/1) and he should be in the shake-up. I’ve always had a big figure for Benson (14/1) and I’ve no doubt he’s a plot horse. The first-time visor suggests they might mean business here. Mac The Man (33/1) has had a couple of disappointing seasons but was right back to his best last time, suggesting he might be able to pick up on his old improvement curve. His price is very generous and I’ll definitely have something on. The only other really interesting one, for me, is No Ordinary Joe (9/2f), who pulled hard for a long way yet was still in front approaching the last in the Greatwood, another hot form race. He’s still a novice and another big step forward is entirely possible. It’s a smashing race, as befits the prizemoney, and I wouldn’t put anyone off anything.
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I’ve got a Noted in Running horse in this - Garry Clermont who looked a winner last time before losing momentum at the last and throwing it away. He’s up 5lbs for that, though. 14/1 and he’s got his work cut out, but you never know with Jonjo. More realistically, I think the favourite, No Ordinary Joe is a good one and it it wasn’t for Jonbon and Constitution Hill he’d be Henderson’s front runner. Alan King thinks he’s got Tritonic sharpened up after the Greatwood (I was a disappointed with him there, but King thought it ok) so he’s a player I think. And there’s always Goshen who could blow them all apart if Moore’s got him back to anything approaching his novice runs - probably a faint hope, though.
 
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Pencilfulloflead - Should be close to evens. His form in Ireland is much better than any of these.

Thyme Hill - On at 11/4 seems like a sraightt forward task now. Ronald Pump I don't think stays 3m on a stiff track, Champ lol, Thomas Darby a slight danger, forget the others.

Dutched Grand Sancy/Annsam - I liked the former's run at Newbury and think this trip will suit. Annsam has some nice nc form last season and his handler is very much a target trainer - his two runs over hurdles will have put him spot on. I have to say the main reason I'm involved in this race is because I'm so negative on most of the others so wanted to get involved - which is not my normal MO for handicaps.

Drop the Anchor - I don't like the Greatwood form, I don't like Nicholls 4yos - and this fella was just out of the frame in the County off the same mark. Easy ew bet.
 
Not the type of race I would normally bet in but 11/8 No Ordinary Joe to be placed looks worth a bet.

I was looking to place lay Tritonic who for me is an absolute rag but he's 4/1 just to be placed which is a bit too rich for my blood
 
GL,Fist.
I've bet Benson (14/1). Finished like a train (4th) in this last year, in the hope the first-time visor will see him on his game.
 
Big priced winners and place horses are no strangers to Benson's trainer.

Can see where you are coming from, the h'capper hasn't done Bensom many faours since Sandown
but he dropped him another 2 lbs and 133 doesn't seem too harsh.

I'll have 15 quid EW on him later...could only get a fiver ew on earlier..everyone is asleep :lol:
 
Euronymous said:
Pencilfulloflead - Should be close to evens. His form in Ireland is much better than any of these.
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Probably should be favourite and was yesterday afternoon so I was looking elsewhere but L'Homme Presse appears to have attracted a lot of money and is now favourite.

Here's how I read the race yesterday when I did my figures (around lunchtime):

ASC 1.15 HOWDEN GRADUATION CHASE (GBB RACE) (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner £20,812 7 runners 2m5f8y Good To Soft SKY
[TABLE="width: 469"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Messire Des Obeaux
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]nov
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Pencilfulloflead
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]nov
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Black Op
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]?
(164?)
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] L'Homme Presse
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ex Patriot
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]o
[148]
[/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Legends Ryde
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Danny Whizzbang
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]147
o e y
§?
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

At the time of writing only one bookie is listing at oddschecker so the odds are likely to be a much rougher guide than usual. Black Op (5/1) would have a shout on his best form but I gave up on him a long time ago. He’d need to be 20/1 with three places offered to tempt me. It looks between the top two with nothing between them on my figures and RPRs but Elliott’s is 6lb clear on ORs, which is reflected in their respective odds of 7/4 and 3/1. I’m happy to let the race go.

PFOL is out to 2/1 in a place but I felt obliged to take 6/1 this morning about MDO as the only way that price is right is if there's already a reason for the horse not running its race.
 
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L’Homme Presse had about four different entries this weekend, and I think it speaks to how highly Venetia rates him, that he runs in probably the toughest option he had. Pencilfulloflead is respected, but the ground is on the quick side, and the trip is on the sharp side, for him.

Sammarive was very impressive at Sandown, is still unexposed as a hurdler, and I’m not entirely convinced an 11lb rise will stop him today. Odds of 8/1 enough to tempt me into a chunky enough bet.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
PFOL is out to 2/1 in a place but I felt obliged to take 6/1 this morning about MDO as the only way that price is right is if there's already a reason for the horse not running its race.
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Following another wee think about this, PFOL's price makes the dutching a value proposition. Obviously L'Homme Presse is the fly in the ointment but he's got plenty to find to justify favouritism, which isn't to say he won't.
 
Grasshopper said:
L’Homme Presse had about four different entries this weekend, and I think it speaks to how highly Venetia rates him, that he runs in probably the toughest option he had. Pencilfulloflead is respected, but the ground is on the quick side, and the trip is on the sharp side, for him.
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He won his last race off 128 - it's mental that he's fav for this. Venetia's continually get overbet, look at Farinet last week.
 
Generally agree, Euro, but he’s much less exposed than the yokes that are usually overbet. He clearly had a ton in hand off 128 last time, and the rest are all much more open-book, imo.

To be fair, I did take the price through gritted-teeth, but I wasn’t waiting all week to havea pop at him, just to turn my nose up for a point or two.
 
Re PFOL - most of his sires best horses go on good ground and in terms of the trip, Ascot is stiff and they will go faster in this race than the sort of crawlfests he's used to in Ireland. It'll take some getting imo.
 
Lhomme Presse could be a bit special. You could have hung your washing on his reigns all the way up the straight he was going that easily.

Well done anyone who got in on the gamble
 
Desert Orchid said:
Following another wee think about this, PFOL's price makes the dutching a value proposition. Obviously L'Homme Presse is the fly in the ointment but he's got plenty to find to justify favouritism, which isn't to say he won't.
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I was already voicing concern about MDO by the second fence. It was either brainless tactics or supreme confidence from Jacob and I was pretty sure it was the former. The other 'big 2' went off with BO and there was always the chance one of them would stay there. The weakness behind MDO was probably a sign that the race was needed and that's how he appeared to run. Even when he appeared to canter in behind LHP at the last before the bend I was urging Jacob not to let Deutsch get way from him.

The form of the other placed horses suggests LHP has indeed found the requisite improvement. I doubt PFOL would have beaten him.
 
Kind of knew when Elliott won the first with a hurdler who had no form whatsoever that his 153 chaser wasn't gonna win. You're right DO, I doubt he'd have won anyway but I can't not back the form horse just because a Venetia might be lurking.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 1.50 - Zhiguli 12/1 - I managed to get 12/1 to four places earlier today but it looks like it's since been backed. Now 12s tops to three places and blue pretty much across the board. High up my ratings table and a second-season novice who is entitled to improve again. Lots to like.

LW Hurdle - Thomas Darby 13/2 4 places - only Sky and Hills are offering the fourth place (with 8R proviso) and I managed to snaffle a bit of 8/1 earlier. I think Thyme Hill is the one to beat but the extra place in an eight-runner field makes TD a no-brainer for me. Watch him finish fifth...
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Those extra places are proving invaluable!!
 
Horrendous horrendous day, just like all the others. Hate the horse, hate the AP bullshit, the trainer is a ****.

I suppose I was right about Ronald Pump being a non stayer though. Not that that pays any bills.
 
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