Hacker Des Places (Lingfield 15:35) - 12/1 Bet Victor
Somewhat surprised that this horse isn't much shorter in the betting today, and think he is a cracking each-way price.
I could bang-on about him being unexposed, trained by Nicholls etc, but the crucial factor in his favour today is the ground. I'm prepared to forgive his last run on Soft as it came after a break of more than a year, but today's Heavy going should be right up his street. The last time he raced on it was in his first outing for Nicholls, where he went steadily further and further clear to win by 32L......from a horse now rated 114, with a horse now rated 100 beaten 80L.
Clearly, it would be daft to take the winning distances too literally, but it does suggest that he goes tremendously well in bottomless ground, and that he may have gotten in a little lightly off a mark of 132 (dropped from 136 after that FTO effort).
I think we'll see a different horse today, with that run under his belt, and with the prevailing ground almost certainly in his favour. Nicholls could probably have run any amount of horses in this £52K race, and I think it's noteworthy that he has chosen to go to war with this one.