What are you backing Today? Part 2

Tanlic said:
I may regret this but I am putting all todays winnings on Sharjah who is currently available at 20/21

I will be really shocked if she doesn't pick this prize up with ease
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Well done


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Cheers V.....double whammy on him so for once greed paid off but what a weird race.

Lost his place before the home turn then hung like a gate on the run in........scary stuff.
 
Well done Tom O Brien great ride on Kalooki there the horse looked beaten at various times just outstayed them at the end and carried home by Tom.

Kalooki has to go in the tracker he has carried top weight today.
 
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Hopefully Haydock is on tomorrow as there are some interesting races due to be run.

Heavy ground at present.
 
A few experimants taking place in the 1.40 at Warwick today but Somekindofstar 3/1 has already proved he knows how to win and is the form pick by a mile

Shortbread will be on me tonight if he wins:lol:
 
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A few for Tomorrow as I’m likely to be in no fit state in the morning and am off to play golf shortly.

2:00 Cheltenham. ZANZA. 2pts e/w @ 8/1

He’s more than capable of winning off a mark of 147 as demonstrated when getting too far back in the Paddy Power & December Gold Cups before rattling home both times. Hobbs’s horses continue in good form and while Zanza needs to brush up on his jumping, if the first time pieces help him to concentrate he can hopefully return to the form which saw him looking like he was about to go very close to giving Sky Pirate a race when conceding 11lb, from a mark only 2lb lower than he races off on Saturday, over an extended 2m here 12 months ago.

That run followed a facile victory off 138 at Newbury having received a couple of gentle introductions to chasing prior to that. His two bad runs last season can easily be forgiven because he was badly hampered on both occasions, firstly in the Grand Annual off Saturday’s rating when having gone off fancied in the betting, he was being rousted along from an early stage (but responding well) before being put out of the race at the 9th and then again in the Red Rum at Aintree when finishing better than anything before a repeat of Cheltenham’s events caused his jockey to lose his irons at the last fence and put paid to any chance of reaching the frame. Both of those runs, along with his reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup demonstrated the need to step up in trip and aside from the top weight, if there’s one horse in the racing capable of having 10lb in hand of his OR it’s Zanza and with better luck in running he must go extremely close.


2:10 Musselburgh - FIRST IMPRESSION. 2pts Win @ 10/3

It’s a competitive little race and he’s up against a host of previous course winners but he looked impressive on his return to hurdles at Wetherby when the 2nd & 3rd home that day were theoretically well in when taking into account jockey claims but First Impression was running all over them coming to the last and only had to be pushed out to win by a comfortable 5 lengths. Taking that race at face value he should be rated in the low to mid 130s, consistent with his mid 80s flat rating (RP analysis afterwards suggested 140s) but he runs here off only 7lb higher than Wetherby, off 127.

He was fully expected to win that day having gone off 5/4 fav and went off the same price in a less competitive C3 handicap here earlier in the month but got no further than the 4th.

He can make amends on Saturday receiving weight from the potentially still improving course winner Tommy’s Oscar and Christopher Wood, who’d have a chance on his wins here the past two Februarys but needs to show a glimmer of that past form since reverting to hurdles after an aborted novice chase campaign.

First Impression’s trainer, John Quinn saddled the 2nd & 3rd with his most recent runners in this race in 2020.


2:35 Cheltenham - PILEON. 1.5 pts e/w @ 6/1

Phillip Hobbs’s horses are running better than they were last season and Pileon has looked improved for the step up in trip, winning well at Sandown on his last outing. He’s apparently a horse who’s difficult to get fit so it was encouraging to see him step up on his more than credible 4th in a Pertemps qualifier at Aintree back in November. He’s now rated 1lb lower than when just being touched off in the Martin Pipe on today’s new course back in 2020 and the only thing which tempers enthusiasm is the fact that he’s already qualified for the Pertemps and would comfortably get in off his 137 mark so they may want to protect his handicap but there’ll undoubtedly be better handicapped Irish raiders in that race so connections may elect to make hay here despite it having mediocre prize money, in the absence of overseas raiders.
 
Wasn't sure where to put this, and this thread seems as good as any, but PaddyPower are going a free 50p (or 25p EW) yankee at Cheltenham tomorrow, claim from the link below

https://promos.paddypower.com/promotion?promoCode=CRETFBYANCHELP

Max 0.50c or 0.25c each way free Yankee bet. Free Yankee bet must be used on Saturday’s Cheltenham races, January 1st. T&Cs apply.
 
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Looking forward to Cheltenham tomorrow.

Nicky Henderson starts the day with the Fav. I am Maximus.
He was pulling Nico's arms out early doors at Newbury but with a few others being pretty keen Nico managed to keep him in check.
The opposition was poor to say the least so he won quite easily.

There must be a chance Hillcrest will try to make all which will no doubr help Nico if he does.
However if he pulls hard again on this course he could end up going to fast for his own good.

Get a Tonic never touched a twig at Uttoxeter and when asked to quicken in the soft ground the race was over in an instant.
The second did get within striking distance burt when given a few slaps Get A Tonic picked up again and won with plenty to spare.She gets the 7lbs mares allowance and looks hard to beat on this ground.

Get A Tonic (EW) 5/1 William Hill 1/4 the odds 2 places.


Royal Max is one to watch in the bumper. Has come up a few times as oneto follow, so I will be watching the market.

Have a great Hogmanay all and Happy New Year.
 
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wilsonl said:
2:00 Cheltenham. ZANZA. 2pts e/w @ 8/1

He’s more than capable of winning off a mark of 147 as demonstrated when getting too far back in the Paddy Power & December Gold Cups before rattling home both times. Hobbs’s horses continue in good form and while Zanza needs to brush up on his jumping, if the first time pieces help him to concentrate he can hopefully return to the form which saw him looking like he was about to go very close to giving Sky Pirate a race when conceding 11lb, from a mark only 2lb lower than he races off on Saturday, over an extended 2m here 12 months ago.

That run followed a facile victory off 138 at Newbury having received a couple of gentle introductions to chasing prior to that. His two bad runs last season can easily be forgiven because he was badly hampered on both occasions, firstly in the Grand Annual off Saturday’s rating when having gone off fancied in the betting, he was being rousted along from an early stage (but responding well) before being put out of the race at the 9th and then again in the Red Rum at Aintree when finishing better than anything before a repeat of Cheltenham’s events caused his jockey to lose his irons at the last fence and put paid to any chance of reaching the frame. Both of those runs, along with his reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup demonstrated the need to step up in trip and aside from the top weight, if there’s one horse in the racing capable of having 10lb in hand of his OR it’s Zanza and with better luck in running he must go extremely close.
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Yes, I've backed Zanza in both runs in these big races this season so I know where you're coming from, wilsonl.

My main bet in the race is Funambule Sivola at 7/1. He went up to 156 (down 1lb here) for running Shishkin to less than four lengths at Aintree at the end of last season and is entitled to improve another 10lbs into this season, plus the Shishkin form might be better than generally regarded. They were 20 lengths clear of the 150-rated Gumball. A promising reappearance in the Peterborough should have him spot on for this. There's no market indication of any confidence behind him so far, though.
 
Re Zanza and Coole Cody - they both ran in the Paddy Power, the December Gold Cup and now this. I think that's a big ask.

Is this race tomorrow a long standing one and if so have horses done well in it who have been competitive in the other big handicaps on the course?
 
Yea Zanza has a good chance. I do reckon Kauto Riko is good each way value at about 14/1. He ran well when placing in the 2020 Paddy Power over this course and distance. He hasn't had many runs since and I think first time tongue tie and cheekpieces are interesting additions for him. He is versatile trip-wise and his second placing behind Two For Gold the last day seems like solid form. He'll do for me.

I would also give a good shout to Mick Maestro in Mussleburghs 2.10. He won handicap hurdles off 117 and 123 but then shot up the handicap to a mark of 135 then losing his form a bit but has now has been dropped to a mark in the 120s again, so I could see him bouncing right back to form here, especially against some of these rivals who now look weighted to the hilt!

My form has been very hit and miss of late though. I don't blame anyone for not wanting to follow me in haha.

Happy New Year to all for tomorrow.:)
 
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Tomorrow's big handicap:

Horse
Stats
Age
OR
MON
169
Notes
RPR
Magic Saint
t p1 C
8
149
173
g t?
168
Simply The Betts
CD
9
153
171
+p
162
Galahad Quest
t C D bf
6
134
171
+
162
Coole Cody
CD
11
147
168
163
Zanza
p1
8
147
168
164
Alnadam
D
9
143
168
+p
164
Espoir De Teillee
D
10
141
168
164
Janika
 t
9
153
167
?
128
Riders Onthe Storm
t D
9
147
167
{177}
160
Kauto Riko
t p1
11
140
166
[175?]
162
A Toi Phil
D
12
136
166
?
161
Admiral Barratry
v D
9
132
165
+p
166
Funambule Sivola
7
155
163
+p nov
160
Vienna Court
CD
7
135
162
? +p
162
High Up In The Air
D
8
131
161
p nov
160
Deyrann De Carjac
D
9
131
?
168o
[178?]
164

<tbody>
</tbody>

My first thought upon scanning this race was that it was a disappointing field for such a lot of money and compared with the likes of the Mackeson and Massey-Ferguson which were crackers. But it’s actually not at all bad. Cases can be made for many to hit the norm for a Saturday Class 2 handicap so I’m going to look for something that can hit 175 on the scale. Those are Galahad Quest (9/1), Alnadam (11/2), Riders Onthe Storm (14/1), Kauto Riko (14/1), Funambule Sivola (7/1), Vienna Court (10/1) and maybe Deyrann De Carjac (20/1). I’m not going to back them all. Alnadam was on a nice curve last season until an excusable performance in the Ultima. He was prominent in the betting for the Mackeson but didn’t run. Instead he was hammered out of sight by Bravemansgame. The stable must think he’s going to perform better now. I might let him go at such a short price. I can also let Deyrann De Carjac go now. He disappointed in the Mackeson but improved a fair bit in the Massey-Ferguson without ever looking too dangerous. He needs to find another 10lbs to get back to his old novice form and I’m not convinced he can do it. I’m happy to take the others against the field, with Funambule Sivola the main fancy. He went up to 156 for running Shishkin to less than four lengths at Aintree at the end of last season and is entitled to improve another 10lbs into this season, plus the Shishkin form might be better than generally regarded. They were 20 lengths clear of the 150-rated Gumball. A promising reappearance in the Peterborough should have him spot on for this. Vienna Court largely disappointed last season but appeared to take a big step forward here last time and could be a big improver in her second season.

(Price references as of late last night when I did the race.)
 
I've done Galahad quest 10/1.needs to lay up a bit closer than in the pp gold cup.
Simply the betts finished just behind him there and hadnt had the benefit of a run but I hope galahad quest can run well off its low weight.
 
Cheltenham 1.25
Come on Teddy can build on his debut success here having shown his liking for this course with a success at the December meeting in 2020 and a strong showing at the Festival
9/1 with Bet365 looks like value


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Fairyhouse
11:50 - Carrig Sam ew
12:20 - Motown Maggie
12:55 - Mahons Glory
13:30 - Greige ew
14:05 - Galypos Clermont
14:40 - Put The Kettle On
15:15 - History Of Fashion ew
 
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Kim Bailey’s Getaweapon, Exeter 3:35, looks quite well handicapped on last term’s form. Ran ok in opening shot last time out and has had wind tweaked since then. Come into 5/1 from 17/2 overnight. Never run on heavy, though, so a bit of an unknown there.
 
I've backed Venetia Williams to have a very good day at Cheltenham.

Win doubles and an ew treble Destinée Royale, L’Homme Pressé and Funambule Sivola.
 
Oscar Delta in the Dipper. He was bad last time but I think he's worth a go at the price.

Alnadam/Galahad Quest dutch in the big handicap. The former I've had on my tracker since his win last back end at Sandown. The second franked that form nicely at Aintree recently and he ran well enough in the Ultima before his stamina ran out. Will put in a lay at short prices given who rides. The Nick Williams horse will be better suited to softer ground and the new course.
 
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