What are you backing Today?

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Mark Johnston sends a big team to Chester today, several with a good shout.
I'm going for 2 that I backed at Goodwood Van Ellis (3.05) and Galician (3.40).

Van Ellis won well over 6f and looked in great shape. Up in class today but carrying less weight he is drawn 9/11 (10 run). As the RP has to point out a high draw is negative at Chester and opts for a lower drawn horse. But he won over 7f on his prepenultimate race from a draw of 9/10 at Chester. With Johnston in form, the horse in very good form and going that suits the horse would be much shorter with a lower draw. 3/1 appeals to me given course/draw performance.

Galician had a poor draw at Goodwood and has a better draw today. Like most of the trainer's runners of late looked in good shape last week and the 1/2 furlong of the course will be beneficial 7/2 is a lot shorter than his SP last time but seems value to me.
2 singles and a double.
 
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There's a big difference in the draw advantage between 7 & 6f at Chester. The former has a straight one furlong for the runners to sort themselves out, whereas the latter is immediately before a bend.
Might still win, but I'd take him on with Ponty Acclaim, from their respective draws.
 
4.30 Kempton Gunner Will. This looks to be a straight match up between the top two in the market. Ginger Monkey ran a decent time last time, but really didn't beat much.
Gunner Will is still a maiden after 9 races which is a worry but he is consistent and the Kemptom race has thrown 3 subsequent winners who finished around him. Last time came second with Durcan, today he has Hughes on which has got to be good for a pound or two.
Hopefully he can try to make all like from Kempton run and the shorter distance means that he won't get done.
Other thing is Kempton has added different mixture of poly track, so course will run slower. I reckon it suits a horse stepping back rather than up.

4s 7/2 etc all been taken before I thought about writing this up but I still think 11/4 is still good value, in what is much like a coin flip.
 
Authentication to me looks potentially a mid 60's horse minimum. Dropped 5 lb today down to 53 and 12f looks ideal
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Didn't help getting hassle for the lead, but looks to need to be stepped back up in trip and possibly tracking in mid div rather than leading.

Carl 6.05 Veiled Applause @ 9.0 looks better value than Just Lille to me, with a decent apprentice on board and certain to handle conditions.
 
Veiled Applause was dire.

Land Hawk looks big to me at double figures.

Betting centres around the Ellison debutant, who looks priced on the trainer alone and Strong Man who may fade inside the distance.
 
Land Hawk looks big to me at double figures.
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Well beaten, but stumbled after 1f then got blocked again.

Talked myself out of backing the winner as I guessed Fanning had turned it down.:mad:
 
Almaty Express in the 2.40 at Wolverhampton is far too big at 6/1. This is his course, much like Fossgate today. He's got Kieren O Neill on him again and he gets on with him and he seems to get him out the stalls quickest. There is no other pace in the race tomorrow at all, so will prob lay off shorter IR, and hope he takes his turn again.
 
Kempton 9.00 West Leake @ 28.0

I'm clueless what will win this race but the price of WL looks generous to me.
A confirmed a/w horse, on a winning mark and he's shown improved form from turf to polytrack on previous occasions.

Simply a case of the price attracting me.
 
I'm quietly confident that the first two favs at Chepstow 6:50 are Place Lays - Mrs Warren and Must Be Me - I think I've found 3 other horses that should finish in front of these two on form lines but that's presuming they have been running to their true ability.

7 runner race - 2places - 20pt place lay each liability approx 35 - 40pts
 
I reckon Richard Kingscote was sent to Haydock to keep him away from Gaul Wood in the 610 at Sandown-talented but slightly awkward.A 5 star back to lay in my book.
 
Group 3 up next in Leopardstown 7.30 with the return of Treasure Beach.I fancy an upset and have backed Massiyn who was stopped LTO.
 
Great Nicanor @ 23.0, looks over priced to me in the 7.40 Southwell.

A few will fail on the surface, so worth a punt at the price.
 
Tipperary 6.00

My Girl Anna is being aimed at running in the Prix l'abbaye. I'm pretty certain a listed race here with Katla taking them along up front will be right up her street. 6/1 e/w looks to good to refuse.
 
LUKE said:
I reckon Richard Kingscote was sent to Haydock to keep him away from Gaul Wood in the 610 at Sandown-talented but slightly awkward.A 5 star back to lay in my book.
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Only just seen this but without wanting to sound defensive, how is Gaul Wood in any way awkward?

Kingscote went to Haydock because Dascombe had more runners there and only one at Sandown and he's the stable jockey.
 
The mini wave of support for Nanton (Ascot 3:15) in the betting market is interesting. Down to a mark of 90 (handicapper had given him a big chance) and I've had a go at 16/1 that he'll find his best form today. Maybe He'll run well before one last tilt at the big handicaps later on in the year: The two times I've seen him entered so far this season I've thought "What is Jim Goldie doing", and I thought the same last night, so I'm hoping Nanton can repay Goldie's persistance today. At the ripe old age of 10 it would be nice if he could go out with a win or two this season.
 
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Gamla Stan said:
Only just seen this but without wanting to sound defensive, how is Gaul Wood in any way awkward?

Kingscote went to Haydock because Dascombe had more runners there and only one at Sandown and he's the stable jockey.
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I presume you are involved in some way Gamla Stan-if so no offence intended.
Kingscote might be the stable jockey but he is no stranger to getting jocked off if connections feel the need to do so.
I was incorrect to say awkward but I feel he was unlucky in his first 2 races this season and horses that are visually unlucky are usually overbet in their next race.
 
have layed at Zuska in the 5.55 Kilbeggan at 1.45

the piece of form thats making it that price was on different ground to today..can still win of course but isn't that far in front of the next two in the betting on previous run
 
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