What are you backing Today?

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Great run from Noviak Marble.

Missed the race, but looked at the result and the fact it went 1.17 in running.

Southwell 7.50 Stellar Express @ 12.0
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Unraced on the surface is an obvious concern, but this is simply a case of a horse that I would not be laying at half the price. 10lb lower than last turf mark, a prominent runner and drops back in class (3/7 in class 4/5 last 12 months) to C5, after 4 runs in C2/3.

Putting in some in running lay backs from 2.9 down to 1.21, if he does happen to fall into a heap.
 
Unraced on the surface is an obvious concern
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Managed to get the lead, but failed as soon as he was challenged for the lead.

Winner was a decent price considering he was 1/1 over C&D.
 
Dubai Hills shouldn't have too much trouble reverting to the a/w in the 8:20 tonight, as he won 4 on the bounce last season at Southwell before finishing a good 3rd in the Lincoln behind Sweet Lightning. He also had some good form on turf before that winning streak, so I've no reason to think the horse can't run to its best tonight having its first run on the a/w for a while.

Apart from the favourite the vast majority of these have got no great recent form, and it's for that reason that this looks a good time for Dubai Hills to run well and maybe get placed. Certianly, of those horses with patchy recent form he looks the interesting one (maybe even the 'value') for the place money at a nice price.
 
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a bit late but Jordora looks a big price W&P in what looks an open race. Backed at 38.0/8.4 and a small saver on Call Of Duty in the win market @ 12.0.
 
Marble said:
Dubai Hills shouldn't have too much trouble reverting to the a/w in the 8:20 tonight, as he won 4 on the bounce last season at Southwell before finishing a good 3rd in the Lincoln behind Sweet Lightning. He also had some good form on turf before that winning streak, so I've no reason to think the horse can't run to its best tonight having its first run on the a/w for a while.

Apart from the favourite the vast majority of these have got no great recent form, and it's for that reason that this looks a good time for Dubai Hills to run well and maybe get placed. Certianly, of those horses with patchy recent form he looks the interesting one (maybe even the 'value') for the place money at a nice price.
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I'm going to dutch yours with Noble Citzen at 15.0 & 27.0

I think Hanaghan is a very interesting booking [2/4 with older horses for Simcock}..this coincides with the horse running below a mark of 90 for the first time since last winning
 
Backing a short price horse with Spencer on board is verging on madness, but Conry looks a decent proposition for a couple of reasons.

Trainer switch looks sound and the fact he's missed a possible run at a track he runs well at this afternoon, indicates they think he has a strong chance off his low a/w mark.

His last turf run has been boosted today with the winner going in again.

Covering bet on Muhandis, who looks worth another chance.
 
Muhandis was even slower out the stalls (again) and Conry travelled well (1.6 in running), but Spencer failed to realise the front runners would get in his way at some stage. Would never have won, but should really have been more aware.
 
Dunlop slowly getting some winners and Zaayha looks a fair price @ 9.8.

Not sure about the step up to 12f, but sire progeny do better on a/w than turf, although I have to admit not checking the stats by surface.
 
Well done fellas some nice winners on here,havn't looked at it for a while,see you backed those two in the 7f race doomster.I was going to put muhandis up as a trade in that race but 6/1 missed it,kirby must've had his cobblers on it the way he was riding it.Pretty vicious for 6 hits.:ninja:
 
I've been trying too hard and clutching at straws this week. I'm all for plenty of meetings, its just I've seen days this weeks with 5 flat meetings but none where I can find an edge or a horse worth betting for that matter. The same applies to today. Nothing at all I'd want to back apart from one horse. I spotted Weapon Of Choice who runs in the 8:50 at Kempton. I fancied this horse as one to follow around the time of the Lincoln meeting. I watched him since, and he hasn't liked his racing recently on turf to my eye, maybe the a/w will work the oracle. He is certainly of interest and is being backed aswell, so I couldn't put anyone off him on what looks another dodgy day.

I've got a beauty lined up for Saturday, but that will be going on the summer naps thread...:)
 
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Marble said:
I've been trying too hard and clutching at straws this week. I'm all for plenty of meetings, its just I've seen days this weeks with 5 flat meetings but none where I can find an edge or a horse worth betting for that matter. The same applies to today. Nothing at all I'd want to back apart from one horse. I spotted Weapon Of Choice who runs in the 8:50 at Kempton. I fancied this horse as one to follow around the time of the Lincoln meeting. I watched him since, and he hasn't liked his racing recently on turf to my eye, maybe the a/w will work the oracle. He is certainly of interest and is being backed aswell, so I couldn't put anyone off him on what looks another dodgy day.

I've got a beauty lined up for Saturday, but that will be going on the summer naps thread...:)
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We will await with bated breath oh wise one:whistle:
 
She's A Character @ 7/1. Hamilton 3.40

Cases for the entire field can be made for and against, but SAC looks a decent price, even when taking into account she may struggle for stamina.

Goes on soft with a lifetime record of:

7th - Listed race.
Last of 5 off 80
Won off 76.
Last of 9 off. Ignore, poor draw at Chester.
2nd off 80. Winner raised 9lb.

Also worth considering she has form over C&D: 2,2,2, all off 80, but runs off 74 today.

You could argue I'm Super Too and Another For Joe have stronger claims here, but not only does SAC have a 6lb drop but also a decent 7lb claimer on board.

With Henry Clay and Another For Joe sure to force the pace with I'm Super Too tracking, this should hopefully be an easy race to sit and pounce at the death, stamina permitting.
 
Had a fresh look at Kempton tonight... in the 8:20 I fancy St Ignatius.

lan Bailey has trained three winners in the last week, at odds of 15/2, 12/1 & 22/1. I think backing horses whose trainers are in form on the flat is probably as important as it has ever been before. Or it seems that way.

How this horse is only rated 73 when his strike rate isn't far awar from the 20% mark I don't know (8/46): Many horses with similair profiles would surely be in the mid eighties.

So I take him to win, with Sail Home and Rub Of The Relic in reverse forcasts.

I'll also do a small double with St Ignatius and Weapon Of Choice in the following race...
 
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6.50 Kempton

DANA'S PRESENT

Hughes is 5/9 for Baker and rode this last time over 7f as horse had taken keen hold over 8f..will need a decent pace which should get here...5.8 taken
 
7.50 Openly been given good word. Hopefully will drift on show to give playable price around 2/1.
 
Cheers fella. Only one I could see for today was Hidden Justice in the last race at Salisbury. Should get about 13F ok as he's got the 12 o.k, whether he gets 14F on soft ground is in the lap of the gods, but I fancy it. 10/1 will boost the tank for tomorrow:)
 
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Well done again Marble. On a good run.

She's A Character ran better than bare result, having pulled too hard through a slow early pace.
 
Well done with the winner last night Marble. Really good shout and reasoning.

Now forget the formbook, let's get back to cloaks and daggers selections.

Dumbarton (Down Royal 4.40)
 
lol might have a bit on this one in the 4:40 at Down Royal.:)
 
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Salisbury 6.05 Rioja Day win & place @ 19.0/4.5

Although the stable are struggling, I like the look of this horse going into a nursery.

Form of last run when 6th of 10 is reading well, handles the ground and the bet really hinges on whether he stays the mile.

At the price worth a punt, even if he's likely to be drawn wrong side.
 
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