What are you backing Today?

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Night Lily is one horse I fancy in the last at York tomorrow. Took me a while to try and work out this race, but I just think if you compare her, to a horse carrying exactly the same weight and off identical handicap mark tomorrow, such as the joint second favourite (Instance) for J.Noseda, then 20 looks a humoungous price in comparison.

Night Lily is a horse who has placed in numourous listed contests, the latest being an excellent second to Chachamaidee at Lingfield in a group three in May. Her very recent form is not as good, although the last run is slightly better, but this is a class two handicap and if anything I think they may have disguised how progressive she may be by running her in listed and group contests. Certainly you could argue she is probably a 95+ horse I reckon.

If you look at Instance, all she's done to justify carrying 9.9 and be 7/1, is she's won a class 4 & 2 handicap.

So a progressive and unexposed type she is, but her recent form isn't great, so I ask is he really a 7's chance and Night Lily a 20's chance, when you take everything into consideration... I can't guarantee Night Lily will do the business, but logic tells me she's the value horse in the race.
 
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I been waiting for Navajo Chief running again..that York win against Area code was in a time suggesting he is in front of even this mark today..too far last time..today is it imo
 
EC1 said:
I been waiting for Navajo Chief running again..that York win against Area code was in a time suggesting he is in front of even this mark today..too far last time..today is it imo
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got badly chopped on the bend..then got in a tangle 2 out..will keep following this one..over a cliff:)
 
Fred Willetts will like ground in the next at Newmarket. He gets further than 6F, I'd like to see him try and make all again as he did at Chester last year. If he gets a good start and is up front early I wouldn't be laying him thats for sure.
 
Citrus Star the one for me tomorrow at Goodwood. I remember his win at the track well two years ago, he really looked a horse to follow that day when beating Rakaan having come from behind. He's coming into form again, and I think can win tomorrow if he puts his best foot forward. Expect this horse to come late and fast.
 
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Local hero Ml Winters has 3 fancied runners today;
Rebel Fitz 3.25 Cork
Party Rock 5.35 Cork
Silver Chief 4.55 Curragh
add in Stones Peak 2.40 Curragh (up from53 to 80 this season)and we might have a day to remember!
 
Regal Realm (3.20G) is 2 from 2 over c/d, and ought to complete the hat-trick today.
 
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I'm all over Susiescot in the 4:55 at the Curragh - she has been very unlucky twice this year, especially lto and is due.
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Cheers mate.

My only bet on a dreary day.

Well done.
 
another good call OTB :cool:

5.55 Zennor - drops to a 0-60 after a whopping 5lb drop in the weights and so meets the weakest race its ever run in..last run was better and stable just coming back to form after the doldrums.

a nap bet for me..which means nowt at moment;)

9.2 taken
 
Love Island is surprisingly on the drift, so hopefully a double figure price is obtainable on the exchanges.

Lto winner over 5f, that run would be enough to put him in the shake up, but his 6f runs particularly the one at Donny behind Pearl Nation, makes me think this horse is up to winning again off 68.

Any rain may go her, but there's really not enough evidence to indicate she does not handle cut.
 
Xsquared ran back too quickly last time at Gowran on unsuitable ground to defy a murderous penalty. Back on his preferred surface I believe he has it in the book to defy this mark. 10/1 is very fair.
 
must be due to post a winner ;)

2.00 Epsom - if the ground has some fast in it then the fav is vulnerable here..and i think Nile Knight is a better horse anyway...decent bet at 3.55
 
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Well done EC.:D

Backed it but bottled it by putting a lay back in @ 2.5 simply viewing the market.

Producer yesterday and Nile Knight traded huge prices in running.
 
Love Island is surprisingly on the drift, so hopefully a double figure price is obtainable on the exchanges.

Lto winner over 5f, that run would be enough to put him in the shake up, but his 6f runs particularly the one at Donny behind Pearl Nation, makes me think this horse is up to winning again off 68.

Any rain may go her, but there's really not enough evidence to indicate she does not handle cut.
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Won @ 13/2
 
This thread now nearly at 100,000 hits, well done to all concerned.

Admittedly I'm going on what hasn't happend formwise yet as the horse is so unexposed rather than whats proven, but I think Novirak for James Fanshawe and Eddie Ahern (Epsom 4:30) is the type of horse to win when dropped in grade and will appreciate the step up to 12F. All things taken into account I think he probably has about a 40 percent chance of winning so the 9/2 is a good price. Might even drift a bit as some others are being backed in the race.
 
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