What are you backing Today?

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KEMP 4:20 EVERGREEN FOREST 14/1 EW
Blinkers back on having dropped in the weights. Runs middle distances at Kempton well, and needs further than the 1m2F it's been getting since joining this yard. There should be a decent enough pace. Ran better than position suggests from wide draw on 31/10/12 for this yard and Jockey. If the blinkers bring back some form from earlier, it would look to have a fair chance. Hardly a good thing, but half stakes EW looks worth risking. I've nudged it down to 12's it would seem, but even so.
 
WOLV 2:40 DESERT VISION 6/4
Should hold CLASSIC COLORI on recent form, and has a class edge over NOBLE JACK of 1.5 - 2L by my reckoning, despite NJ recieving weight from DV.
 
Desert vision looks good, viewpoint race is very strongform,
Captain starlight looks good, both short prices.
2.40 wolves theirs alot of deadwood in that race
6.50 kempton perfect race to finally get off the mark.
Goodluck
 
horse info

Desert vision looks good, viewpoint race is very strongform,
Captain starlight looks good, both short prices.
2.40 wolves theirs alot of deadwood in that race
6.50 kempton perfect race to finally get off the mark.
Goodluck
 
Afternoon all

5.20 Kemp - CALDERCRUIX @ 16/1

Has dropped back down to a winnable mark and Mr Evans has booked the jockey he always uses when this one is up for winning in Raul De Silva(both AW wins came with him onboard)


Good luck everyone
 
Hope to see a better run from "Under Par" in the 3.10 today, have this horse on my horses to follow list but don't think he was suited by the blistering pace set in his last race, have given it another chance in this race, backed EW at 12/1 last night, might be a rule 4 though.
 
Nice profit SJ, had a look at Caldercruix, Flemenstar, looks like it's in with a chance off that mark so I've dipped my toe in the water - cheers - fingers crossed...
 
6.50 Kempton

The fav Captain Starlight is either very unlucky to have run in 3 slow maiden races..or is just very slow. On top of that doesn't seem to like being put under pressure. Eminently opposable. Its one of those..shall i just lay the fav..or try and pick a winner jobs.

speed figures for last 3 runs

Captain Starlight = 30/37/39
Subtle Difference = 41/31/45
Automotive = 53

Heroes Welcome wouldn't have to be great to win but the betting suggests not fancied..fc 4/1..currently 14/1

Imo Subtle Difference & Automotive both have little to fear from the fav and at the prices i've dutched both at 6.0 & 10.0
 
Evergreen Forest backed down to 13/2, with Ladbrokes and Hills both ducking it, but then becomes a NR. Not sure what happened to Desert Vision, maybe it went too hard. Will find out in another day or so.
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LING 3:20 AL'S MEMORY & MASAI MOON - RFC at 20.61 & 23.26
There is a form line through MR KNIGHTLEY, but that one had gone too hard for it's own good at Kempton when MUHANDIS came late to beat it. MR KNIGHTELY got it right and improved next time when beating AL'S MEMORY. A better line of form is likely to be through THE NOBLE ORD, who is probably better over 1M now, and this helps to illustrate my point.
MASAI MOON looks more dangerous, but could find giving 6lbs to AL'S MEMORY a little tricky, but at least has proven it runs well at the CD. Thats the risk with AL'S MEMORY, as it may have a preference for Wolves. So not quite solid enough for a win bet at 7/2. However, the form lines with ROY THE BOY & KUNG HEI FAT CHOY would suggest it is tight between AM & MM. With fingers crossed that MUHANDIS isn't going to be quite good enough, and unlikely APRIL FOOL can make up the difference, I think the RFC looks good value at the odds.


OTHERS

WOLV 1:35 PRINCE OF PROPHETS 10/11
The concern is the trip if the surface is riding fast. Though that could be OK as theres an extra 20yds compared to Kempton, and Kempton was riding fast when it stayed on to get 2nd in MODERN LADYS race. 6/4 I'd have been in there, but not at odds on.

LING 1:50 LITTLE INDIAN 5/1
Shouldn't be a lot between LITTLE INDIAN and DEVOUT on a recent encounter over CD, but LITTLE INDIAN has the better draw today. While KATY SPIRIT won that contest, that one was a little more battle hardened, and may well have to settle for 3rd place today as the other two progress. HATS OFF rates a danger, if the blinkers have the same affect this time and is able to progress a little more over another furlong. PETITE GEORGIA is a slight worry on HCP debut, and the booking of Jim Crowley is interesting also. Thought about an EW dabble at 5/1, and while it seems pretty safe to do so, I'm not as confident about the win element as I'd like to be in that situation, so feel I'd be betting just for the sake of it. If forced to bet though, it would be EW on LI.

LING 2:50 SPORTING GOLD ?
Has a really decent chance to lose it's maiden tag in this. Clocked a good enough time LTO at Kempton, which was it's first run since being gelded.
Likely to be odds on though.

LING 3:50 SPARTIC 6/1
Has started to go forward again, and likes this CD. Not sure about the Jockey though. I think 6/1 offers a little 'value' against BUSSA, but with WELSH INLET in there also, the market looks to be roughly correct. Considered another EW bet to nothing approach, but the Jockey offsets any confidence on that front.
 
I couldn't resist playing a very small mugs bet. :whistle:

LING 3:20 MASAI MOON 11/2 / AL'S MEMORY 3/1
WOLV 1:35 PRINCE OF PROPHETS 10/11
LING 1:50 LITTLE INDIAN 4/1
LING 2:50 SPORTING GOLD 4/6?
LING 3:50 SPARTIC 6/1 / BUSSA 6/4

4 X £5 WIN ACC'S
 
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I'm on Harry Buckle too, I also fancy Hollo Ladies at Ayr today, dropping weights and done nothing in two come back runs for Ferdy Murphy having changed trainers.

Also fancy Dancing Freddy but only because of dropping weight and last two runs have been so bad yet trainer remains in half decent form.
 
Ive had a few quid on Caledonia in the bumper @ Ayr . The race he won has worked out well and he is bred to like the very soft going . Too big @ 13/2 for me to resist
 
Good run, frontrunner, but foiled by a newcomer from your own neck of the woods.
 
LING 1:25 WATERLOO DOCK 25/1 EW

Won a division of this 2 years ago off 62, but improved a little last year. SPEAK THE TRUTH is obviously well in, but they'd gone a bit too hard LTO, which offset some of the bad start it had, though did come up the inside in the straight. Anyway, both that one and the selection ran in the two separate divisions last year, and on the clock WD has 0.13 seconds to make up with Speak The Truth, but is 10lbs better off (if you include Atkinsons claim, who is a worry).

There are form lines with Wabeel and Cut The Cackle and a few others. It's last few runs can be ignored, as doesn't run well after long breaks, and also had the usual visor left off over CD. The blinkers are fitted today which it has twice run well with, and has also dropped down the weights to 60.

Obviously this series has been it's target. Actually made the final last year and while finishing last, the race was run overly strong imo. Captain Dimitrios going on to run up a hatrick, and Wabeel coming out and running well also (winning a couple of 0-70's). Speak The Truth was also in the race, and started awkwardly.

There are other small pedantic positives, but the concern for me is the jockey. The draw isn't great, but may not be too bad. Hoping it can break well, slip over and track Jonnie Skull etc, then fingers crossed a couple of smacks entering the last might see it get to the front and hold on, or at least place.

It's hardly a strong choice, and I only stumbled upon it while checking everything was in place for Speak The Truth, for whom I don't think offers much value at 7/2, saying as it can be slowly away and could encounter traffic problems.
 
Kickingthelilly 3.10 lingfield very good horse, obvious danger is lowther.
Could be the forecast. Whaileyy has a strong chance today, few unknowns
in the race. Goodluck
Kickingthelilly 3.10
Whaileyy 2.35
 
1.35 Chepstow swynymor-pronounced soy-numb-more, means sound of the sea in Welsh.Connections think it can win the triumph.'i hope you get the pronunciation right when it wins the triumph' apparently.backed it at 7/2 this morning and in a small patent with Poet 7/2 and soll 12/1.
Be lucky.
 
Chepstow
2:45 Destroyer Deployed
3:20 Universal Soldier

Sandown
12:45 Une Artiste
1:50 Williams Wishes
2:25 Court Mistrel
3:00 Ifyouletmefinish

Wincanton
12:55 Hot Whiskey
1:30 Grandioso
2:05 Timesishard
 
backed Aryal in the 12.20 @ 5.0

Unraced Johnson horse but the trainers 3yo are worth following in Jan, even if he's had a few recent reverses.
 
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