Part time punter
At the Start
Daryl Jacob has just one ride at each venue today, just been a load of money placed for nothing but the truth with price going in from 10s to 15/2 on pp at Worcester. Each way singles and double.
What are you backing Today?
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swedish chef
At the Start
First of the day
4.20 Rudigreen 5pts win - just think his Irish form may be better in this race
4.20 Rudigreen 5pts win - just think his Irish form may be better in this race
Wednesday - Haydock 4:20 Scatter Dice
She has run poorly the last twice, but the speed figure I gave her on her debut this season behind Beyond Conceit gives her a couple of pounds in hand of her mark today. Likely to get an easy lead on a track that favours front runners, Fanning back in the saddle, I think she's overpriced at 12/1.
She has run poorly the last twice, but the speed figure I gave her on her debut this season behind Beyond Conceit gives her a couple of pounds in hand of her mark today. Likely to get an easy lead on a track that favours front runners, Fanning back in the saddle, I think she's overpriced at 12/1.
Haydock 3: 50 - I fancy Party Royal here for Mark Johnston with a low weight on its back, horse scored second time out in maiden last year so now looks the time to take a chance, and he looks like the horse in the field who could develop a higher rating as the season progresses. I'm quite hopeful I'll get a good run for my money.
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BALTIC BOMBER 2.30 BEVERLEY
Baltic Bomber has been running over 6f in his last two races and those runs can be forgotten as he is far a better horse over 5f. He has never placed over 6f. He was beaten just over 1l into fourth on his third last run over this course and distance in a better race and that form is rock solid. The winner, Black Annis Bower, has subsequently placed and won off 4lbs higher. The fifth and ninth home have also won. Third home was Diamond Blue who went onto to finish second next time. Baltic Bomber was stopped in his tracks when making his move and in easier company today he should go very close. Conditions are ideal.
Chocamoca is the likely jolly and his second to Bondi Beach Boy looks strong form with the winner going in again off 4lbs higher. However, this is a slightly better class 6 than that race and he has now gone up 4lbs without winning this season. He has won off a higher mark and he won this race two years ago off 55. His record when carrying 9-8 or more in a handicap reads 112 from three races. He should run well. Likes to race prominently which may not suit him here.
Amadeus Denton hasn’t won for two years and there is no doubt he is very well handicapped. Won a nursery of 76. He has never carried this much physical weight, unplaced both times when carrying 9-7. He was held up last time but he usually races in the van which won’t suit here.
Pull The Pin was 2ls behind Chocamoca last time and has 11lbs in hand today. He should turn the tables. However, he is 0-11 on turf, 0-4 over 5f and both his wins were at Southwell so this ground probably won’t suit.
Amenable has a win off 78 a year ago when with David Nicholls and he has been running with the handbrake on since January. He has had 12 runs for Violet Jordan without winning and his record when returning to the track within 7 days reads 0-4, never placing.
Lady Royale last won two years ago off 81. However, she is 0-8 when returning after a break of 30 days or more, never placing.
Showtime Girl runs in her first handicap after an unsuccessful stint in maidens. Tim Easterby’s record with maidens making their handicap debut reads 19-412, the last 35 have lost. She will make the running.
Sophie’s Beau won this race last year off 46 and is 3lbs higher for a repeat. She has lost all 11races since, never placed, and she comes from a yard whose last winner on the flat was in January, 26 have lost since with just one placing. She will try and make the running.
Fathey has two wins from 52 races, the last one two years ago. Both wins came after a break of at least 90 days and has never placed when returning inside 7 days, 0-5.
Conclusion: Baltic Bomber is 2-3 when the average OR is in the 50s and has a very good chance today. There are a couple of front runners and another six who like to be in the van. That will set it up and Baltic Bomber will find this lot easier to pick off than his previous visit here. Chocamoca looks the obvious danger.
Baltic Bomber has been running over 6f in his last two races and those runs can be forgotten as he is far a better horse over 5f. He has never placed over 6f. He was beaten just over 1l into fourth on his third last run over this course and distance in a better race and that form is rock solid. The winner, Black Annis Bower, has subsequently placed and won off 4lbs higher. The fifth and ninth home have also won. Third home was Diamond Blue who went onto to finish second next time. Baltic Bomber was stopped in his tracks when making his move and in easier company today he should go very close. Conditions are ideal.
Chocamoca is the likely jolly and his second to Bondi Beach Boy looks strong form with the winner going in again off 4lbs higher. However, this is a slightly better class 6 than that race and he has now gone up 4lbs without winning this season. He has won off a higher mark and he won this race two years ago off 55. His record when carrying 9-8 or more in a handicap reads 112 from three races. He should run well. Likes to race prominently which may not suit him here.
Amadeus Denton hasn’t won for two years and there is no doubt he is very well handicapped. Won a nursery of 76. He has never carried this much physical weight, unplaced both times when carrying 9-7. He was held up last time but he usually races in the van which won’t suit here.
Pull The Pin was 2ls behind Chocamoca last time and has 11lbs in hand today. He should turn the tables. However, he is 0-11 on turf, 0-4 over 5f and both his wins were at Southwell so this ground probably won’t suit.
Amenable has a win off 78 a year ago when with David Nicholls and he has been running with the handbrake on since January. He has had 12 runs for Violet Jordan without winning and his record when returning to the track within 7 days reads 0-4, never placing.
Lady Royale last won two years ago off 81. However, she is 0-8 when returning after a break of 30 days or more, never placing.
Showtime Girl runs in her first handicap after an unsuccessful stint in maidens. Tim Easterby’s record with maidens making their handicap debut reads 19-412, the last 35 have lost. She will make the running.
Sophie’s Beau won this race last year off 46 and is 3lbs higher for a repeat. She has lost all 11races since, never placed, and she comes from a yard whose last winner on the flat was in January, 26 have lost since with just one placing. She will try and make the running.
Fathey has two wins from 52 races, the last one two years ago. Both wins came after a break of at least 90 days and has never placed when returning inside 7 days, 0-5.
Conclusion: Baltic Bomber is 2-3 when the average OR is in the 50s and has a very good chance today. There are a couple of front runners and another six who like to be in the van. That will set it up and Baltic Bomber will find this lot easier to pick off than his previous visit here. Chocamoca looks the obvious danger.
swedish chef
At the Start
Good luck Rob - you deserve something for the effort put in.
Part time punter
At the Start
Gig put it up as well so will definitely be in with a good chance. I wonder if Amenable is the horse that could pop up from nowhere though. Massive drop in the weights and a 5lb claimer...
Good luck.
I'm continuing with my Mick Easterby theory that he likes to win the last race of the meeting and he has Chrisnickdave at Hamilton tonight. Handicap debut with Mulrennan on board.
Good luck.
I'm continuing with my Mick Easterby theory that he likes to win the last race of the meeting and he has Chrisnickdave at Hamilton tonight. Handicap debut with Mulrennan on board.
dvds2000
Gone But Not Forgotten
EC1
On a break
actually went in a bookies today and put some doubles and trebles on these..a bit of fun whilst i actually start sniffing a winner
6.20 alpha tauri
7.20 altnahaara
7.40 petersboden
8.40 shifting star
9.10 spicy
9.20 imtihaal
6.20 alpha tauri
7.20 altnahaara
7.40 petersboden
8.40 shifting star
9.10 spicy
9.20 imtihaal
NASSAU STORM 4.10 NOTTINGHAM
Nassau Storm has some very good form to his name. He was only beaten 1l in a similar race to this on his seasonal debut. He met trouble in running and could be counted slightly unlucky. He was second to Belgian Bill in a better race than this on his final run last season. That form has been franked with the winner scoring again and finishing second in listed class off 3lbs higher in which he had Producer well beaten. Mickail Barzalona has his first ride for Bill Knight
Dick Bos won as he liked with an uncontested lead last time and steps up in grade and is 6lbs higher and has 5lbs more physical weight to carry. He is yet to race on ground with firm in the name.
Head Space is just 1lb higher than his last win but he has never placed in class 2 from 5 outings. It is possible he is better over 5f as he is just 1-11 over 6f.
Joe Packet is 0-12 in class 2 and though he was looked after last time he is probably up against it here. He has one win and three places from five races over 6f on flat tracks.
Compton is 0-8 in class 2 and hasn’t won over 6f since his racecourse debut. That was the only time he has raced on this ground.
Misplaced Fortune is 0-12 in class 2 and was well behind Dick Bos last time. There is no guarantee she will turn over the deficit on these terms. Tinkler has had one winner from his last 100 runners, the last 60 have lost.
El Viento is 1-17 in class 2 but he is 5lbs above the mark he last won off. His record off marks 89 or higher reads 0-13 and off marks 89-92, 0-11.
Harrison George is being kept busy but his losing run is now 23 stretching back to 2010. Though he won a listed race in his pomp he is 0-22 in class 2.
Tioman Legend is 0-9 in double figure fields and 0-7 over 6f. He has never placed in 5 outings in class 2.
Church Music is 1-16 on turf and 0-4 in class 2. His win was on his racecourse debut two years ago.
Cheveton is 0-8 on good to firm and has never placed off a mark higher than 87 in the last two years, 0-14.
Conclusion: A lot of these will have to run a PB to score. Dick Bos may well get his own way up front again but there are a few that can race prominently. Nassau Storm can lie up with the pace or be produced for a late run. Either way, he looks well capable of scoring off this mark.
Nassau Storm has some very good form to his name. He was only beaten 1l in a similar race to this on his seasonal debut. He met trouble in running and could be counted slightly unlucky. He was second to Belgian Bill in a better race than this on his final run last season. That form has been franked with the winner scoring again and finishing second in listed class off 3lbs higher in which he had Producer well beaten. Mickail Barzalona has his first ride for Bill Knight
Dick Bos won as he liked with an uncontested lead last time and steps up in grade and is 6lbs higher and has 5lbs more physical weight to carry. He is yet to race on ground with firm in the name.
Head Space is just 1lb higher than his last win but he has never placed in class 2 from 5 outings. It is possible he is better over 5f as he is just 1-11 over 6f.
Joe Packet is 0-12 in class 2 and though he was looked after last time he is probably up against it here. He has one win and three places from five races over 6f on flat tracks.
Compton is 0-8 in class 2 and hasn’t won over 6f since his racecourse debut. That was the only time he has raced on this ground.
Misplaced Fortune is 0-12 in class 2 and was well behind Dick Bos last time. There is no guarantee she will turn over the deficit on these terms. Tinkler has had one winner from his last 100 runners, the last 60 have lost.
El Viento is 1-17 in class 2 but he is 5lbs above the mark he last won off. His record off marks 89 or higher reads 0-13 and off marks 89-92, 0-11.
Harrison George is being kept busy but his losing run is now 23 stretching back to 2010. Though he won a listed race in his pomp he is 0-22 in class 2.
Tioman Legend is 0-9 in double figure fields and 0-7 over 6f. He has never placed in 5 outings in class 2.
Church Music is 1-16 on turf and 0-4 in class 2. His win was on his racecourse debut two years ago.
Cheveton is 0-8 on good to firm and has never placed off a mark higher than 87 in the last two years, 0-14.
Conclusion: A lot of these will have to run a PB to score. Dick Bos may well get his own way up front again but there are a few that can race prominently. Nassau Storm can lie up with the pace or be produced for a late run. Either way, he looks well capable of scoring off this mark.
Part time punter
At the Start
Pretty much agree with your assessment Rob, the only one that I'm going to throw in is Tioman Legend, it was an eyecatcher last but one run when was completely luckless in running, beaten only half a length by tropics which won and came 2nd next time out. However, disappointed next time out for me so can't bring myself to back it today, got a feeling this one will pop up out of nowhere though soon.
I'm going to have a few permutations involving Lady Cecil's runners today, I don't think Tickled Pink will win (I'll still include it in a few of the perms just in case) but Songbird should hose up. I'll be interested to see how Phenomena runs after failing miserably on debut - albeit on heavy. Fast ground will hopefully suit better and for 700,000 guineas you'd be expecting big things even if no money appears down for it yet...
I'll be on board Gig's rusty rocket which has been backed in as most of Gig's are and I'm on Paene Magnus in the 2030 over at Leopardstown. Best form in the book from last year and should be better than any of these. Disappointed in Meydan and has had a warm up run back in Ireland. Too big a price to ignore. I also keep backing Henry the Navigator and hopefully the step up will suit.
Various bets and perms today so fingers crossed...
I'm going to have a few permutations involving Lady Cecil's runners today, I don't think Tickled Pink will win (I'll still include it in a few of the perms just in case) but Songbird should hose up. I'll be interested to see how Phenomena runs after failing miserably on debut - albeit on heavy. Fast ground will hopefully suit better and for 700,000 guineas you'd be expecting big things even if no money appears down for it yet...
I'll be on board Gig's rusty rocket which has been backed in as most of Gig's are and I'm on Paene Magnus in the 2030 over at Leopardstown. Best form in the book from last year and should be better than any of these. Disappointed in Meydan and has had a warm up run back in Ireland. Too big a price to ignore. I also keep backing Henry the Navigator and hopefully the step up will suit.
Various bets and perms today so fingers crossed...
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I'm feeling adventurous again today, buoyed by yesterday's success.
I'm sticking with Mr Tudhope and his two outside rides at Haydock.
Astrum (in the 6.50) for Rod Millman, for whom Tudhope is 1-1 this season, and Sir Jack Leyden in the 7.20. He rode this, his only ride for the yard this season, last time on his debut but that was in that hot race we've identified already, won by Astaire. I suspect if the horse wasn't up to anything Tudhope would have declined the ride. Whether he can win might be another matter, but we do know that was a very good race.
I'm guessing really but we all are, apart from Himself...
I'm sticking with Mr Tudhope and his two outside rides at Haydock.
Astrum (in the 6.50) for Rod Millman, for whom Tudhope is 1-1 this season, and Sir Jack Leyden in the 7.20. He rode this, his only ride for the yard this season, last time on his debut but that was in that hot race we've identified already, won by Astaire. I suspect if the horse wasn't up to anything Tudhope would have declined the ride. Whether he can win might be another matter, but we do know that was a very good race.
I'm guessing really but we all are, apart from Himself...
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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I'm intrigued by this horse. In it's last eleven races it's been ridden by ten different jockeys and today they've changed again to Graham Lee. With the Portman stable being in a bit of form I was wondering if today was the day but his record in class 2, as above, doesn't look good. If Graham Lee rides him next time as well I would suspect they were trying and today was a "getting to know you exercise"
Steve T
Journeyman
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Harrison George ends his long losing run at 11/1 with Dick Bos in 2nd and Joe Packet 3rd. I liked the look of Head Space but he seemed to be held up a bit too much here from first viewing and was 4th, perhaps he'll drop another 1lb to 82 and be down to his winning mark next time....
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He's in at Thirsk on Saturday
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Yes I spotted that but it wouldn't surprise me if the plan is Ascot towards the end of next week or Windsor on Monday week.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I only found out as they were loading that Tudhope wasn't aboard after all. Nevertheless, Astrum ran well in second but I'm not usually an each-way kind of punter.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Feck...
Beaten again (and hampered but it didn't cost him the race) by an unexposed Hamdan horse but about six clear of the third.
Still, it was trying, which is all I ask for at the end of the day. If it's trying and finds one too good, so be it.
Part time punter
At the Start
Two for Lady Cecil, Gig's rusty rocket, Slim's will win and Henry the Navigator all came in so ended up being a nice day for me yesterday as had three of them in every perm.
Looking for some outsider's today for a bit of small stake fun...
Part time punter
At the Start
Well I'm almost confident enough to put Great Timing on the will win thread but as I have no insight into the actual well being of the horse after a break then I can't. It's just the form lines through Vanity Rules and Talent mean this could be a listed or better horse. Being backed this morning and the favourite hasn't beaten much and looks a lay to me. The William Knight horse that won first time out has only beaten horses which have subsequently run well in the low 60's. so can't see that being good enough either.
At Musselborough I like the look of the mark Nifty Fox finds itself on now for Easterby. I'll also throw in Tony Hollis for the Tutty yard whose runners have been in half decent form in the alst few weeks. Goninaedothat for the Goldie yard is significantly better off with last year's race winnier Jupiter Fidius and looks to have been warmed up for this race.
At York, Ponty Acclaim for the Easterby's is looking well handicapped and Smarty Socks for the O Meara yard in the next race the same.
I'll be doing various perms (small stakes) but having a fair whack on Great Timing. I'll be doing a 1pt each way trixie with Ponty Acclaim and Smarty Socks as well.
Good luck all
At Musselborough I like the look of the mark Nifty Fox finds itself on now for Easterby. I'll also throw in Tony Hollis for the Tutty yard whose runners have been in half decent form in the alst few weeks. Goninaedothat for the Goldie yard is significantly better off with last year's race winnier Jupiter Fidius and looks to have been warmed up for this race.
At York, Ponty Acclaim for the Easterby's is looking well handicapped and Smarty Socks for the O Meara yard in the next race the same.
I'll be doing various perms (small stakes) but having a fair whack on Great Timing. I'll be doing a 1pt each way trixie with Ponty Acclaim and Smarty Socks as well.
Good luck all
I fancy Captain Royale in that Musselburgh 3:25 race.
Won off marks of 72 & 68 in the past, now on 59. Won here before and I think there's another race like this in the horse. Looks the best handicapped horse in the race to me, I just fear one of the young unexposed horses if it comes to a close finish where his old legs might tire... but in any event Captain Royale looks a solid bet both in the win and place market.
Won off marks of 72 & 68 in the past, now on 59. Won here before and I think there's another race like this in the horse. Looks the best handicapped horse in the race to me, I just fear one of the young unexposed horses if it comes to a close finish where his old legs might tire... but in any event Captain Royale looks a solid bet both in the win and place market.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I didn't seek out the Tudhope runners today so it is no more than a coincidence that I've had a stab at Blue Bajan and Smarty Socks today.
I had the former well handicapped going into last year's Cesarewitch but he appeared not to stay.
Smarty Socks was running well off a mark above 100 early last summer and gets in here of just 89.
Just for the sake of an interest, mind.
I had the former well handicapped going into last year's Cesarewitch but he appeared not to stay.
Smarty Socks was running well off a mark above 100 early last summer and gets in here of just 89.
Just for the sake of an interest, mind.
jft2005
Conditional
4.10 Ponty Acclaim
Posted a time speed rating & RPR figure last year over this c & d, which would be capable of winning this race today. He was officially rated 101 that day, but down to 88 today. A must bet for me.
Posted a time speed rating & RPR figure last year over this c & d, which would be capable of winning this race today. He was officially rated 101 that day, but down to 88 today. A must bet for me.
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