What are you backing Today?

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I'm not going to push my luck with my source into the Easterby yard so have no further info to add to the will win thread but I'll be doing some Easterby permutations today as the yard seems to be about to start firing (it was about this time last year I seem to remember).

My instinct is really screaming at me to take Gigilo on with Italian Tom (he's put up Blue Jack) but I know I shouldn't take on the master so I might just have a small saver on IT.

Tom Queally is a jockey in form and I like the chances of his rides at Windsor tonight at half decent prices. Another on form is James Doyle and he rides Russian Link at Kempton.

Back at Carlisle Aquarian Spirit is looking well handicapped for Fahey and Hamilton and is being well backed.
 
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Taking a little chance on the Roger Varian trained horse Sound Hearts tonight at Warwick. Whilst it clearly has the fav to beat (a r/forecast might be worth a crack here) I think at the prices its probably the bet. Interesting Sounds Hearts goes back to listed company after last poor run (first start this season), they clearly think that wasn't its true running. Why else put it in a listed race? So Sound Hearts can run the fav close me thinks.
 
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I'm backing River Ardeche in the next to try and win back some of my losings on Attention Seaker (got hammered, can't believe my mate would tell me he's going to Carlisle to pick up the trophy and for it to drift like a rotten piece of wood!)

Big swing with Royal Holliday for a 1 length beating in October at SOuthwell.
 
FENNELL BAY 4.05 THIRSK

Fennell Bay is just 1lb higher than the mark he won off at Royal Ascot last season. He has an entry in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap later in the week as well as he Ulster Derby and a race at Pontefract. This looks the easiest assignment. Fennell Bay has an excellent record when in the top two of the weights, 3-8 and he is 4-11 when in the first three in the betting. When those two pieces of criteria are combined, his record reads 3-6. He is 2-4 on flat tracks. He couldn’t get to the front in a much better race than this at Chester last time but he will today as there is no other front runner in the race. He may well take a bit of passing.

Muharrer got mugged at Carlisle last time when Cosmic Sun came over the top and pipped him. He is up to a mark of 80, 2lbs higher and he should run his race. Both his seconds were in similar races to this and maybe the handicapper has got him where he wants. Michael Dos is 0-20 over the last fortnight but four of the last six have placed. Since the start of the 2012 season Dods has had 40 runners in handicaps at Thirsk and only one has won.

War Poet has won three times all on good or slower ground, two here at Thirsk. His record on good to firm is 0-7. The visor is back on today but he is a hold up horse and this won’t be run to suit.

Pintrada looks to have had an edge put on him with two eye catching runs this season. He is still 4lbs higher than his last win and his record off marks above 70 reads 0-7, never placing. He is 0-8 on a left handed course. The booking of Barzalona isn’t that interesting, 0-3 for the yard. Bethell had a winner the other day but his record in handicaps at Thirsk isn’t good, 0-29 stretching back seven years.

Royal Peculiar is yet to win on turf, 0-6. He has won twice on the all weather but both those wins came inside a fortnight of his previous run. He is 0-4 after a break of 60 days or more. Mick Appelby is yet to saddle a winner at Thirsk, 0-11.

Dark Dune comes from a yard that is just starting to hit a bit of form. He is 2lbs higher than his last win. I’m not sure that this track will suit him as his three wins have come on stiff tracks. He looks sure to run well but the race may well not be run to suit.

Teenage Idol is a maiden on the flat and looks to have been given a stiff mark for his handicap debut. He was well beaten in his only race on good to firm and is 0-8 when returning to the track inside a fortnight. Dianne Sayer has her string in form and is 1-12 at Thirsk.

Keep It Cool makes his debut for David O Meara who has a 20% strike rate with other peoples cast offs, 22-108. The horse is 1lb lower than his last win at Dundalk but he is ridden by a jockey who is yet to find a place in six rides.

Flying Power hasn’t won on turf for almost two years though he was second in this race last year off 73. Off 79 he will probably struggle and the fact he comes from a yard that has had two winners from their last 100 runners on the turf flat with it being six years since his winner.

Patterning hasn’t run for 836 days and is sure to need this. Chris Grant has got one to win after a two year lay off before, 1-14, but he is 2-26 at this track.

Conclusion: This is all down to Fennell Bay being able to dictate matters. If Norton can get the fractions right then none of his main rivals will get a look in. Dark Dune is a live danger having won on his second run for the last two seasons but he won’t get the pace he needs to aim at.
 
Noel Meades 2 runners in the last 2 races at Wexford where trainer has 33% strike-rate
3pt e/way singles & e/way double -hopefully a bit of value
 
Peter Bowen Multiples at Ffos Llas

ALong with that I'm backing:

Size/Alive Alive Oh/Henry the aviator/Flying the Flag in various multiples with Chunky Diamond (took 20s last night, dropped to a class 5 for the first time having bombed in various class 2/3 & now 4s for Ruth Carr, you've got to think it will come good at some point), Llaregyb (Gig's to follows), Last Train (place only).

Good luck all, I could do with a good day today.
 
I usually bet in nearly every race at the festivals, sometimes more than one per race.

Here is the vote of the Lanarkshire jury...

2.30 Coach House & No Nay Never
3.05 Just Pretending
3.45 Simenon & Estimate
4.25 Wentworth, Llaregyb, Maputo, Red Avenger, Won Diamond, You Da One & Le Deluge
5.00 Van Der Neer
5.35 Bold Sniper & Royal Skies
 
Just having a look at the lucky last - Greeleys Love interests me on its Epsom run where was staying on strongly. Disappointed massively the next twice and although mark is the same carrys a few pounds less than at York. Massive negative for me is that Spencer is on board, he is an unusual booking for Johnston who won this last year with Fennell Bay though and I wonder whether we'll see him sit with a view to him seeing out the extra distance before Spencer produces him for a finish. Anyway, at the prices its worth an each way nibble for me.
 
NIGHT TRADE 7.30 LEICESTER

Night Trade has her ideal conditions tonight. She is much better in single figure fields, 6-16, as opposed to 1-43 in double figure fields. That record improves again to 5-14 over 6f and again to 5-8 when racing in class 5. Her record improves again when racing on good or faster ground to 4-4. She is 1lb below the mark she won off last summer. She has a win and a third over 7f at this track. With the absence of a recognised front runner this will be run to suit as she likes to stalk the pace. Ed Linehan travels across the Midlands from Warwick after riding in the last to take the ride and he is good value for his claim.

Rocksilla won her maiden well enough beating Crave 4ls. That horse got beat in a maiden next time. In third was 48 rated Jamaica Grande 13ls behind. That horse franked the form by winning a maiden handicap. She is entitled to improve and Wall does well with his maiden winners running in their first handicap, 3-16 in last 6 years. She should run well.

Big Wave run a nice race last time behind Dancheur. She is 2lbs below her last winning mark. She has led in the past but she is more inclined to blow the start these days and give herself too much to do. She should run well but all her best form is on flat tracks and she may find Leicester a bit too taxing, 0-4 on stiff tracks never placing.

Black Annis Bower is better over 5f than 6f. She won a nursery over 6f three years but is 0-6 since.

Sakhees Rose has never placed in three outings in class 5.

Fenella Fudge is 0-6 over 6f and 0-3 after a break of 120 days or more. Derek Shaw is 5-122 with horses that make their debut for him after arriving from another yard.

Conclusion: The weather may well play a big part here. Night Trade was pulled out of a race the other week because of the fast ground so a little rain won’t hinder her chance. She has her ideal conditions tonight and with a very good claimer on top she looks well handicapped. The unexposed Rocksilla would be the main danger but her jockey is on a losing run of 30 stretching back to October.
 
I think Sakhalin Star is a lively small e/way bet for an outsider - 3 places betfair - His first and only race looks to be working out well and was run in a good time.
 
Down in Italy near Perugia since the weekend. Limited bets, more limited success-1/6 so far.
Mine today:-
Simenon
Llaregyb, Jalaa, Homage
Remote
Salutation
 
Desert Orchid said:
2.30 Coach House & No Nay Never
3.05 Just Pretending
3.45 Simenon & Estimate
Click to expand...

First and second
Second
First and second from the first five punts.

Nice to feel results are going your way again. All bets covered today. Next winner, if there is one, covers Tuesday's losses :lol:
 
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