What are you backing Today?

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"I think Sakhalin Star is a lively small e/way bet for an outsider - 3 places betfair - His first and only race looks to be working out well and was run in a good time."

Isn't that typical, Chef, 4th. 40/1!!
 
Desert Orchid said:
I usually bet in nearly every race at the festivals, sometimes more than one per race.

Here is the vote of the Lanarkshire jury...

2.30 Coach House & No Nay Never
3.05 Just Pretending
3.45 Simenon & Estimate
4.25 Wentworth, Llaregyb, Maputo, Red Avenger, Won Diamond, You Da One & Le Deluge
5.00 Van Der Neer
5.35 Bold Sniper & Royal Skies
Click to expand...

Lanarkshire Jury look like a night in a hotel is forthcoming. Great results, well done.
 
After Van Der Neer ew at 14/1, if Bold Sniper wins the last, I'll be ahead for the meeting. At this stage, I'll settle for that after the disastrous first day.

Edit: with Royal Skies out, I've switched my saver to Blue Wave at 33/1 ew. Fingers crossed for a place.
 
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7.05 Notfarbad - may be a value bet to turn over the fav with ground now turning very soft at Ffos Las - should handle it well being out of Alderbrook
 
THE CONFESSOR 8.05 NEWMARKET

The Confessor drops in class and has conditions to suit tonight. He has a couple of thirds in better grades than this and his third two runs back to George Guru has been franked with the first seven horses all placing since. The ninth and tenth have come out and won. Last time he was third to Head Of Steam who finished behind him in his previous race. He didn’t manage to lead in those events but he will get a soft lead tonight. Cathy Gannon has a superb record on him, 213U33. The unplaced was on heavy ground. Henry Candy has an excellent record in class 3 handicaps on the July course, 18 runners have seen 4 winners, 6 seconds and 2 thirds. That improves again with horses priced at 10/1 or less to 10 runners, 4 winners, 4 placed.

Zacynthus was second to Redvers last time and the third and sixth have franked that form. Though he is only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark, he has proved to be vulnerable off marks of 88+, 0-9. Cumani is 3-32 in class 3 handicaps on the July course.

Good Authority is unpenalised for winning an apprentice race at Goodwood last week. He has just the one unplaced run in this grade in the UK though he was 0-5 in the Irish equivalent. He is 4-11 over 7f but this will not be run to suit.

Famous Poet won first time out last season but he is 8lbs higher than his last win in class 4. Bin Suroor’s record of 7-56 in class 2-3 handicaps at Newmarket strengthens his chance. He should run well but all three of his wins have come on a sharp track and this 7f may not suit. He still looks dangerous though.

Hefner is 0-4 on a straight track and all his wins have come over 8f or further, 0-2 over 7-7.5f. Botti’s record of 2-32 in handicaps at Newmarket is off putting.

Ducal is 0-7 with just one place on turf. He can blow the start and has refused to race. He has never placed in four races on a straight course.

Bronze Prince is 1-15 on the flat and 0-10 on good or quicker ground. He is 1lb better off with The Confessor for a length last time. Attwater is on a losing run of 31 stretching back to May 4th. He is 1-17 in handicaps here; the winner was seven years ago.

Common Touch has failed to sparkle in his first two races for Willie Musson. His handicap wins have come off 83, 85, 88, and 89. He is just 2lbs higher but his record suggests the handicapper has got him. Musson is 12-133 in handicaps here, 2-36 in class 3.

Esprit De Midas is 0-11 in class 3 and it is two years since he won turf.

Conclusion: Henry Candy saddled the second in this race last year and he looks to have a sound chance of going one better. Cathy Gannon should be able to set soft fractions on The Confessor and he will find this much easier than his last two assignments. Famous Poet and Zacynthus are live dangers but The Confessor should pick up this consolation prize after not getting in the Buckingham Palace Stakes.


OBSTACLE 8.40 NEWMARKET

John Gosden has a fabulous record in this race. He won it in 2012, 2011, 2009 and 2005. He has had a horse placed in the race in 2010 and 2006. He didn’t have runners in 2007 and 2008. Obstacle is sure to be well forward for this and the fact that Gosden won a 10f maiden first time out with a full brother to Obstacle, Look Left, it would suggest he has had this race in mind for him. Gosden is 4-16 with the progeny of Observatory. Buick and Gosden have done well in 3yo maidens this season especially when they’re in the first three in the betting, 5-18.
 
Big sprint double on the cards today.
Society Rock (3.45) ran a blinder on his seasonal debut, and would have won easier had he not hit the front so soon. That's improved form, and with possibly more to come, should be too good for these.
Duke Of Firenze (4.20) is a different horse this season, and has developed a change of gear he never had previously. Has a poor draw, but with the step up in trip and his turn of foot, that shouldn't inconvenience him greatly.
Hill's 9/1 will last about as long as a snowflake in hell.
 
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Wouldn't the offer of 9/1 make you suspicious?

Was it Hills that went 3/1 Battle Of Marengo earlier in the week?

On Thursday while doing the Wokingham I got this serious feeling about Louis The Pious and decided it was worth a punt but didn't want to get involved in any possible hassle about whether ante-post rules applied or not. Anyway, I left it until last night and stepped in at 40/1 each-way (33s or less generally). By the time I'd finished typing up my notes on the race it had been slashed across the board to its current odds*. I just wonder if sometimes the bookies get wind of a job horse that allows them to make apparently generous offers.

*Edit: It was best price 18/1 at midnight last night. Looks like they adjusted the odds for the RP pricewise table.
 
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Good luck

5.05 Redcar-Gold Beau @ 7-4 [888sport]

Should win this on form if newcomers nothing special
 
Storm Moon looks a big price to me in the 4.05 at Newmarket today. Finished 7th of 19 in the valuable sponsored 6f handicap at York last week. He led for a long way there. He's only ever won over 5f and he's back to that trip now and he's even been dropped a pound by the handicapper. He's 18 on Betfair at present.
 
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I'm hoping that even if I blow out at Ascot again, these two will cover me for the day:

Ayr 4.15 Chosen Character
Nwm 4.05 Dutch Masterpiece.
 
I seem to be doing okay with my experimental bets away from the main fare lately so having wakened early and having nothing better to do, I checked out the three middle races at Pontefract.

3.10 -Tight little race with a couple of dark horses but I'm siding with Almagest (17/2). O'Meara is building a reputation for improving rejects from other yards, even good ones, and Almagest was giving the likes of Caravan Rolls On a race in a much more valuable event than this at the end of his 3yo season when with Gosden. If his new trainer can take him forward from that kind of form he'll be hard to beat.

3.40 - If they all run their race it will be between Brown Panther, Main Sequence and Souviens Toi. Brown Panther looked regressive late last season so I'd want to see if he's back to form before risking him. I wasn't sure about Main Sequence's form against Mukhadram but the latter ran a terrific race against Al Khazeem the other day while Souviens Toi's best form looks a mite short of that. The evens on offer about Main Sequence is probably about right.

4.10 - Eagle Rock tops my ratings and there are question marks over most of the others, the best of which might be Herostatus. The 4/1 is very fair and the forecast looks tempting.

I've punted them in doubles and a treble at the best prices (with the guarantees, natch) and keeping my fingers crossed.
 
Main sequence looks.a banker today. I'm also on carthaginian which will hopefully prove much better than rating given purchase price. Kikonga also looks a banker but races he's won haven't been fast so I'm taking a chance on ingleby symphony, looks great each way value and I think forecast is a cert.

Novellist over at saint cloud to beat cirrus des aigles...hopefully...
 
Great call PB:)

CRACK AT DAWN 1.50 WORCESTER

Crack At Dawn will have this run to suit with three front runners in the race and a load more who race prominently. Adam Wedge is back on board with form figures of 113 from three rides on the horse. He is just 1lb higher than his win here two years ago. Forget his last run as the race was not run to suit, there was no pace and those in the van finished a well clear in first and second. His previous win at Towcester has been franked by the third horse. The seventh home has also won. He races against some very disappointing sorts here and provided he doesn’t get too detached he should pick these off at ease up he home straight. Michael Gates is 3-9 in handicap chases at Worcester.

Roc De Guye is 1lb below his last win but he has never won in the summer months. All three of his wins have come in October and November but he has never placed in four races in June and July. He has run at Worcester three times and unplaced three times and he likes to race prominently, not good here.

Shantou Breeze is a 17 race maiden who has never placed in ten races going left handed. He has placed once from five attempts at 20f. Likes to race prominently.

Oranger is back on the mark he won off at Fontwell in April. All his best recent form has come on soft ground. He is on a three years and 19 race losing run on good or quicker.

Grovemere has had four chases and lost them all. He is 6lbs lower than his second here two years ago. He should run well but he does race prominently. Debra Hamer is 1-12 in handicap chases at Worcester.

Regs Ruby has been tailed off in her last three chases and she is likely to be up with the pace here which won’t suit her. On a line through Orang Utang she can’t beat Crack At Dawn. She is 0-10 in a handicap.

Quel Bruere is 0-5 when returning after a break of 120 days or more, 0-9 going left handed and 0-5 on a flat track.

Tulla Emerald hasn’t completed in his three chases and comes from a yard that has had one winner from their 100 runners under rules.

Dream Honours won a handicap chase at Kilbeggan three years ago. He has never placed in four races over 20f or in five races on a flat track.

Conclusion: Normally these sort of races get a big line through them but the way this will be run today will suit Crack At Dawn. A lot of these are going to go off like scalded cats as they get themselves involved in a pace battle. As long as Adam Wedge doesn’t drop out too far, Crack At Dawn should pick this lot off and add to Michael Gates excellent record in handicap chases at Worcester.
 
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