What are you backing Today?

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Ha ha, great stuff chef, I knew I should have followed you in today, I had q feeling in my gut but mistook it for the Rogan josh that troubled me throughout night.
 
Part time punter said:
Iceblast tonight in the last for Thirsk. I'm sticking with my theory on Mick Easterby wanting to win the last race of the day. Last won at Thirsk off 72 (plus 3lb claimer on) over 6f on third run back from a break. Had a long break then had one run at beginning of April. Then two runs in May over 7f and 8f. Now dropped back to 6f and runs tonight off just 55. Paul Mulrennan on board looks a decent booking and looks half decent each way value but hoping I've caught this one at the right time for the win.
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Saved by the lucky last!!! Thank god for that
 
I have not forgotten the touch I landed on Timocracy last year, trained by Alastair Lidderdale, when he beat Reset City a nose at Windsor, and Reset City also happens to run today in the 4:00 Beverley. Lidderdale has two chances at Brighton himself today, including probably his best Ishisoba in the 5:15. 2nd here at Brighton two starts ago, off bottom weight, I think that's the bet in that race. Trainer had a good winner the other day and I like following the trainers sometimes when I can actually back their winners!

I'll do a small patent on Reset City at Beverley, and Lidderdale's 2 runners at Brighton (Silver Starlet 4:15, and Ishisoba (NAP) 5:15). I hope my superstition will pay off! :)
 
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I'm hoping Badea can finally do the business on turf today on second run back from a break. Ran creditable over shorter than he likes last time.
 
swedish chef said:
WHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Having a mental day 5 winners and a non - runner some great prices and backing them on betfair - trebled my account already :D:D
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Brilliant chef, just brilliant. Used to be a horse called Finmental. Thats the word I'd use for your day.:)
 
Heard fahey saying he wouldn't bet on any of his today, too late as I've backed Badea. Just heard Luke morris saying ishisoba should run well with lidderdale fancying it's chances.
 
4.25 Salisbury-Snowy Dawn @ 7-2 [Bet 365] BOG

Go close off bottom weight if anywhere near last speed figure
 
AVON BREEZE 3.00 CARLISLE

Avon Breeze was second to Above Standard last time who franked the form by winning again off 6lbs higher in a class 3. He had Another Wise Kid 2ls behind and on a line through Above Standard he shouldn’t beat Avon Breeze. Avon Breeze had previously beaten Haajes and Needy McCredie who have both subsequently won. She will handle the track as she has won at Beverley and she is relatively unexposed compared to the others.

Rusty Rocket is 3-6 over 5f in class 4 but he 0-15 off marks 77-80. Four of his five wins have come on ground with the word soft in it and he wouldn’t want it any quicker than it is.

Another Wise Kid may well struggle with Avon Breeze on these terms but he is more likely to struggle with the weight as he is 0-6 when carrying 9-7 or more.

Rylee Mooch is 1-21 in class 4 and 0-13 in races where the top weight is rated 84-85. He is 0-15 off marks 75-77.

Ashpan Sam was beaten by Dorback the other day and that horse has won again off 6lbs higher. He is generally consistent but he is 0-14 in double figure fields. He is 0-10 off marks 73-80. He is 0-9 in races where the top weight has been rated 80-85.

Captain Scooby needs soft in the ground title to show his best. He is 0-29 on good or good to firm.

Just Like Heaven won his three races off marks 61-63 and has struggled off higher marks. His record off marks 64-69 reads 0-13.

Six Wives is 3lbs lower than the mark he won off at Beverley last August and is one of three front runners in the race. She handles most conditions but she is 1-27 in class 4.

Escape To Glory is 1lb lower than his win at Haydock last year and has his fourth start for Michael Dods. He drops in class here. He should be okay over a stiff 5 furlongs as he has won over 6f and 7f before. Three of the last five runners to wear a first time tongue for Dods have won. He should run well but he appears to need fast ground.

Beau Mistral won off 79 on soft ground at Chester last year. She has never been sighted since and all her best form has come on easy tracks.

Towbee needs ground with soft in the title, 0-9 never placed on ground good or good to firm.

Conclusion: Escape To Glory, Rylee Mooch, Just Like Heaven and Six Wives will ensure this is a thorough test. Avon Breeze sometimes sleeps in the stalls, but one thing is certain she will finish with a rattle up this hill and she should collect.
 
She may well pop up but I'm inclined to think she will win in August as she is two wins and two seconds from seven races in August.
 
2:10 Warwick
ZIEKHANI - 5/2 £5 win
Trainer says, - "He is related to a couple of winners but is such a big, heavy horse that we couldn't get him out last year. He looks like a bull but works quite well and will win races."

2:00 Newcastle
MR MATTHEWS - 11/4 £5 win
B g Diamond Green - Five Sisters.
Encouraging debut when half length second of eight to Kidmenot over six at Warwick May 11.
"He might have won at Warwick if we'd got a lead. I think he'll win next time because the track didn't suit him and he was green." Won very easy l/t/o form has been franked.

3:40 Warwick
EXACTEMENT - 14/1 £5 e/way
Ch f Speightstown - Rakiza.
Smart filly around seven furlongs, had dropped 1lb to 96 after finishing just over four lengths fourth to Dundonnell in listed event at Newmarket May 18 but produced creditable seven lengths ninth to Just The Judge in Irish Guineas May 26.
"She didn't disgrace herself in the Irish Guineas but will drop her sights now. A smart filly if not group one class and I'm not sure she handles the dips at Newmarket where three of her last four runs have been. Doesn't seem to handle soft, either, but I think she stays a mile. There's a big one in her." Not disgraced in the Irish Guineas btn 6 1/2L considering the run was just over a week from the horses last outing.

6.40 Leicester
TUBEANIE - 16/1 £3 e/way
Ch f Intense Focus - Ryalahna.
Behind on debut in five furlong race won by Fire Blaze at Newmarket April 18.
"Didn't handle the track or the softer ground at Newmarket plus she was out on her own on a very windy day. Certainly better than that."

7:10 Leicester
KRUPSKAYA - 7/2 £5 win
B f Dubai Destination - Willows World.
Won second of ten starts on latest outing over a mile at Thirsk having moved from 60 to 67 following neck defeat same course and distance seven days earlier. Beat Bitusa a head on May 18 and now up 6lb to 73.
"On an upward curve and there's no reason why she can't keep going, weak last year. Plenty more races although a mile is as far as she wants."

9:10 Leicester
VISIT COPENHAGEN - 11/2 £3 e/way
Ch f Speightstown - Nomistakeaboutit.
Ability on sole run last season over seven at Kempton in November but well beaten over a mile same course on reappearance in April.
"A lot of potential but at the moment fragile mentally and is very keen. She is settling much better and did a very nice bit of work recently. Will win a mile maiden without a doubt." They have opted for a handicap and probably think she's on a nice mark.
 
swedish chef said:
2:10 Warwick
ZIEKHANI - 5/2 £5 win
Trainer says, - "He is related to a couple of winners but is such a big, heavy horse that we couldn't get him out last year. He looks like a bull but works quite well and will win races."

2:00 Newcastle
MR MATTHEWS - 11/4 £5 win
B g Diamond Green - Five Sisters.
Encouraging debut when half length second of eight to Kidmenot over six at Warwick May 11.
"He might have won at Warwick if we'd got a lead. I think he'll win next time because the track didn't suit him and he was green." Won very easy l/t/o form has been franked.

3:40 Warwick
EXACTEMENT - 14/1 £5 e/way
Ch f Speightstown - Rakiza.
Smart filly around seven furlongs, had dropped 1lb to 96 after finishing just over four lengths fourth to Dundonnell in listed event at Newmarket May 18 but produced creditable seven lengths ninth to Just The Judge in Irish Guineas May 26.
"She didn't disgrace herself in the Irish Guineas but will drop her sights now. A smart filly if not group one class and I'm not sure she handles the dips at Newmarket where three of her last four runs have been. Doesn't seem to handle soft, either, but I think she stays a mile. There's a big one in her." Not disgraced in the Irish Guineas btn 6 1/2L considering the run was just over a week from the horses last outing.

6.40 Leicester
TUBEANIE - 16/1 £3 e/way
Ch f Intense Focus - Ryalahna.
Behind on debut in five furlong race won by Fire Blaze at Newmarket April 18.
"Didn't handle the track or the softer ground at Newmarket plus she was out on her own on a very windy day. Certainly better than that."

7:10 Leicester
KRUPSKAYA - 7/2 £5 win
B f Dubai Destination - Willows World.
Won second of ten starts on latest outing over a mile at Thirsk having moved from 60 to 67 following neck defeat same course and distance seven days earlier. Beat Bitusa a head on May 18 and now up 6lb to 73.
"On an upward curve and there's no reason why she can't keep going, weak last year. Plenty more races although a mile is as far as she wants."

9:10 Leicester
VISIT COPENHAGEN - 11/2 £3 e/way
Ch f Speightstown - Nomistakeaboutit.
Ability on sole run last season over seven at Kempton in November but well beaten over a mile same course on reappearance in April.
"A lot of potential but at the moment fragile mentally and is very keen. She is settling much better and did a very nice bit of work recently. Will win a mile maiden without a doubt." They have opted for a handicap and probably think she's on a nice mark.
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Thanks Chef. Out of interest where do the trainers quotes come from?
 
Leicester 7.40 Laughing Jack (11/2)
Arguably this one and the favourite are the only ones in any kind of form. The fav is odds-on but I'm not sure its win last time amounts to anything at all whereas Laughing Jack was close to his best last time and is thought likely to improve with an extra furlong to run on a stiffer track.

Leicester 8.10 Piazza San Pietro (7/1)
Showed a bit more last time out in cheekpieces and Callan keeps the ride. The other have questions to answer but even their best current form falls 'way short of PSP's best.

Newcastle 3.00 Dance And Dance (11/4)
I would have been all over this like a rash had it run in the Hunt Cup, for which it was near the head of the market ante-post. Looked very much on its way back at York but my doubt is that this race might not be valuable enough compensation and it's just getting a breath of fresh air today. Alternatively, it didn't get into the Hunt Cup because it was too low in the handicap and if they have the big mile at Goodwood in their sights they might need to get it raised a couple of pounds.

Three doubles and an each-way treble for the sake of an interest.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newcastle 3.00 Dance And Dance (11/4)
I would have been all over this like a rash had it run in the Hunt Cup, for which it was near the head of the market ante-post. Looked very much on its way back at York but my doubt is that this race might not be valuable enough compensation and it's just getting a breath of fresh air today. Alternatively, it didn't get into the Hunt Cup because it was too low in the handicap and if they have the big mile at Goodwood in their sights they might need to get it raised a couple of pounds.
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Not off an inch! That's the chance you take, I suppose :(
 
Done a permutations bet and had a couple of winners so far - I've nicked a few of yours so I need one of Piazzo, Laughing Jack or I've gone for the rogue horse which is Torero. Callan making the journey from Newcastle to Hamilton so I've presumed it is for either Piazzo or Torero and thrown both into the bet! Also backing Sunraider tonight

Fingers crossed
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leicester 7.40 Laughing Jack (11/2)
Arguably this one and the favourite are the only ones in any kind of form. The fav is odds-on but I'm not sure its win last time amounts to anything at all whereas Laughing Jack was close to his best last time and is thought likely to improve with an extra furlong to run on a stiffer track.
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Thank God for those best odds guarantees! When I saw it was 9/1 I took out some sickness insurance just in case it ended up being my only winner and it immediately went out to 10/1 just as they were going in.:lol:
 
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