What are you backing Today?

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Part time punter said:
Done a permutations bet and had a couple of winners so far - I've nicked a few of yours so I need one of Piazzo, Laughing Jack or I've gone for the rogue horse which is Torero. Callan making the journey from Newcastle to Hamilton so I've presumed it is for either Piazzo or Torero and thrown both into the bet! Also backing Sunraider tonight

Fingers crossed
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Get in there sunraider!!! Cheers for laughing jack do!
 
Ger Lyons stable is bubbling into form over the last 2 weeks or so.

At The Curragh today both horses he sends have nice profiles Given the fact that Lyons doesnt train his horses to win first time out and his current form, they're stand out as ones to be on the right side of for me.

Of the pair I think Dr Funkenstein is the better bet. With only a couple of likely improvers, and a couple of other exposed but reasonably rated sorts, its more likely that trouble in running is the worry for this lad than any of the opposition.

Saxo Jack faces more potentially above average opposition in his race. While he should be thereabouts, of the pair I feel the former is THE bet on the card.
 
I managed to get on Confessional at 16s last night as knew it would be backed. SHocked to see it as low as 9s this morning but I still think it will come in further. Reared at the start last time and ended up only beaten 3 and a bit lengths, been tumbling down the weights but running in good company. Got to be at least placing today.

Tassel is an interesting one for Hannon and Moore at Newmarket tonight. 3 runs ago it was an eyecatcher finishing 5 lengths behind Ninjago. It completely fluffed the start and was finishing by far the fastest horse, I thought up it to 7f and we are away. They upped it to 7 but upped it into group class where was beaten quite well but ran creditably. Back down to 6 last time where again finishing well but couldn't catch the winner. Would like to have seen back up to 7f but kept at 6f. I actually like the look of Queally's mount for the Hannon yard and it looks like Queally is making the trip to Newmarket for this ride. The other one in the race though is Godolphin's Mar Mar. Between the three for me so will prob do combination forecasts. Sorry that ended up far more in depth than I meant!

Tenor with Catlin on looks like a banker bet to me.

Bridle Belle - bit of rain around this morning and with 5lb claim on should be making the frame.
 
Ricko said:
Thanks Chef. Out of interest where do the trainers quotes come from?
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http://www.attheraces.com/stabletours/

The Weekender has a stable tour nearly every week and the racing Post does many at the start of each Flat / Jump season. You can also find some on certain trainers websites.
There are also many books published by timeform, racing post, trainers, journalists etc.., that include interviews with trainers, you'll also be surprised what you can find on Google.
Then the next step is to watch them, follow them, figure out if they are any good, try to read the trainers mind as to when they are likely to run well and work out if they are a value bet or not? Easy :blink:

Rules: Try not to back Fridays, Saturdays or Big Meetings as too many trying unless the odds are value.

Monday / Tues / Weds are the best days for following them.

The big problem is, that it is time consuming and you will miss many a good winner. You will also lose information. I've already lost Charlie Hills and Richard Fahey's Stable Tours as the mrs used them for the cat tray :lol: Although I have found Richard Fahey and Richard Hannon Jnr to be very cagey with their selections .
 
If you have the right RP membership you can also access the stable tours database. Click on 'cards' and it's tabbed there.
 
Chester 8.25 Sandy Lane (6/1)
The thing that fascinates me about this race is that the top ten entries were all likely to make the cut at the 5-day stage but an awful lot have defected to allow Gabrial's Gift to get in. I just wonder if a number of phone calls were made... This race has the potential to fall apart so any financial involvement will carry risks. I think Kingscroft and Sandy Lane are marginally more likely to be trying their best, with preference for the latter as it's less exposed and with an expert at improving new inmates.

Newcastle 7.45 Ubetterbegood (14/1)
These handicap sprinters to beat each other week in week out but Ubetterbegood was hampered last time and the form of the York race the time before is working out exceedingly well and those two runs have hinted at a return to last season's best, which would be god enough. The booking of Barzalona strikes me as a positive.

Two win singles and an ew double for a laugh.
 
TWELVE STRINGS 5.20 DONCASTER

Twelve Strings did hold a Northumberland Plate entry but he was always going to struggle to get in off this mark. Clearly held in high regard he has some excellent form since joining Brian Ellison. He was second to Cappellanus last time over 16f but his form before that when second to Hallstatt looks strong with the winner placing off 3lbs higher and the third and fifth subsequently winning. The fourth and seventh have also placed. There isn’t a great deal of pace in the race which will suit him as he tends to stalk and the booking of Dettori looks interesting as he has only rode twice for the yard and he heads to Newmarket after this. He won’t mind any rain and with the majority of these stepping up in grade, he may well just have too much in the tank.

Mr Snoozy won a 0-70 in good style last time and has to improve to take a hand here. He has only twice raced in a race where the top weight has been rated above 70 and he has unplaced both times. However, he is 2-3 at Doncaster and Tim Walford has his team in form. He should run his race.

Albonny is going for a four timer but is up in grade now. He is 12lbs higher than when the sequence of wins began but the drop back in distance won’t be suitable. He is a hold up horse and with the lack of pace and classier horses he might find things happening too quick at the business end. It is three years since Alan Jarvis won a handicap at Doncaster, 0-12 since.

Sign Manual’s defeat of Lieutenant Miller has taken a boost given the subsequent exploits of that horse. He won his next race nicely and then finished in the places in Ascot Stakes off 8lbs higher. Sign Manual failed in his next race off 8lbs higher and drops back in class here. He is still 7lbs higher than the win. The drop back to 14f doesn’t look ideal as he needed the 16f to get on top at Newbury and he will probably need a lot of rain as he appears to prefer some give. The race will not be run to suit.

Running Deer is another who has to improve. She led last time but has been off the pace as well so it is difficult to know how she will run here. All her best form has been in 0-75 so she just might find this a tad quick. She steps up to 16f for the first time but her dosage suggests she will stay.

Ashdown Lad is another stepping up in distance but his consistency has been in 0-75 races. He beat Burnham and Sir Boss at Leicester who have both subsequently won and then last time he finished a neck behind Running Deer, same terms today. He has a dosage Index of 2.0 which suggests he won’t stay.

Mexicali has shown nothing in two runs in the UK. He did win over 12f in France but he has a DI of 1.8 he shouldn’t stay this far. Dean Ivory is 3-32 in handicaps at Doncaster. Hughes is 9-33 for the yard so he looks a positive booking but Ivory is 4-54 with horses running over distances beyond 12f and his last winner on the turf was back in 2004.

Gabrials Star has a soft ground maiden win on his racecourse debut as his sole success. He has shown some promise on his last two starts. Dr Marwan Koukash has moved the horse to Ian Williams. Williams has a 7% strike rate with other people’s cast offs. He should run well enough but he is a hold up horse and that won’t suit here.

Rocktherunaway won over course and distance two runs back off 77 but was never at the races off 81 last time. He is 0-6 after a break of 30 days or more. Dods is 1-55 when he takes one horse to Doncaster. The winner was five years ago.

Masterful Act has led before and been held up so it’s difficult to get a handle on what tactics will be employed here. He has run on the flat turf three times, unplaced in all three. He is a much better horse on sand.

Conclusion: There are a lot of imponderables in this race but one horse who looks guaranteed to give his running is Twelve Strings. He has been racing against better horses and he doesn’t have to improve to take this. This will be run to suit him and Dettori should track the pace and then start to wind this up gradually in the home straight, the others may well not get near him.
 
swedish chef said:
http://www.attheraces.com/stabletours/

The Weekender has a stable tour nearly every week and the racing Post does many at the start of each Flat / Jump season. You can also find some on certain trainers websites.
There are also many books published by timeform, racing post, trainers, journalists etc.., that include interviews with trainers, you'll also be surprised what you can find on Google.
Then the next step is to watch them, follow them, figure out if they are any good, try to read the trainers mind as to when they are likely to run well and work out if they are a value bet or not? Easy :blink:

Rules: Try not to back Fridays, Saturdays or Big Meetings as too many trying unless the odds are value.

Monday / Tues / Weds are the best days for following them.

The big problem is, that it is time consuming and you will miss many a good winner. You will also lose information. I've already lost Charlie Hills and Richard Fahey's Stable Tours as the mrs used them for the cat tray :lol: Although I have found Richard Fahey and Richard Hannon Jnr to be very cagey with their selections .
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Cheers mate.
 
Part time punter said:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8795556/richard-fahey-plate-pair-need-luck

Fahey does a blog on a friday with his weekend runners - you have to read between the lines a bit but at elast gives you a better idea.

His stable tour from March is here

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/8598959/richard-fahey-stable-tour

Great idea not to bet on fridays and weekends Chef, but when you are addicted it is extremely hard not to!!
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Oh! I do bet if I think the odds are value
 
A fairly short priced Maidens multiple for me today. They just look to be the likeliest winners in their respective races. 6x win doubles and an e/w acc. All B365 and BOG.

Don 6.45 Toast Of The Town @ 2/1
NM 6.30 Lamar @ 6/4
NC 7.15 Prussian @ 6/4
NM 8.05 Hallelujah @ 5/2
 
MLMRob said:
Mexicali has shown nothing in two runs in the UK. He did win over 12f in France but he has a DI of 1.8 he shouldn’t stay this far. Dean Ivory is 3-32 in handicaps at Doncaster. Hughes is 9-33 for the yard so he looks a positive booking but Ivory is 4-54 with horses running over distances beyond 12f and his last winner on the turf was back in 2004.
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Hughes is 2/5 for the yard this season and 3/5 last season.

Mexicali ran above his OR in a Class 3 at Ascot - and he's now 6lbs lower - so I'm not sure you can argue that he has shown 'nothing' in his two runs. A very poor run last time does require forgiving but the fact they're hooding him today for the first time and securing Hughes's services suggest to me that they think the poor run won't be repeated. Lots of German blood in his lines so I think he might improve for the step up in trip, regardless of what his dosage says. I reckon 12/1 is proper value but I do agree that Twelve Strings (4/1) is the obvious alternative. My doubt about that one is Dettori, who seems only to be getting decent mounts from his closest allies.
 
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2 Colossus of 3yo maidens take each other on, Wexford Opera and One true Love. I reckon they are worth dutching. they should get far enough ahead before the slow bicycle race begins.
 
What are u guys thoughts on David Marnanes in the big sprint at The Curragh tomorrow? Looks well treated on old form and I read in Tom Segals pricewise book that as as arule he always backs Marnane in sprint handicaps.
 
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