Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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F*cking dreadful bit of riding. Ridiculously over-confident.
Took 7/2 early, was 15/8 in the stalls. Slim Chance would be proud of me :lol:
What are you backing Today?
- Thread starter On The Bridle
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F*cking dreadful bit of riding. Ridiculously over-confident.
Took 7/2 early, was 15/8 in the stalls. Slim Chance would be proud of me :lol:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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For f*ck sake. What the f*ck do I have to f*cking do to get a f*cking clear run for my f*cking money!!
:blink::blink:PS - Shane Kelly deserve a lengthy suspension for his ride on Kingsgate Native. I thought at best it was reckless, at worst downright dangerous.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Aaaarrgghhhh :blink::blink::blink:
Louis The Pious was the one I was all over like a rash in the Wokingham
Still, I'd be bleating about missing out on a 28.75/1 double (Kingsgate Native and Masamah) if Masamah had held on
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Well done, handsofstone! Peslier didn't do much wrong on Es Que Love either.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Same. Couldn't pull the trigger after being on at Ascot.
handsofstone
At the Start
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thanks, amazingally i Did not do a forecast as i was just focusing on PRINCE OF JOHANNE. It was stuck on the rail for a long time, but lee got their just in time. good luuck
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's a tough handicapper alright. Good bet. grr
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Howsabout Lovely Pass and/or Masarah to upset the fav in the next?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Are you betting on every race today DO?
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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:lol:
I tend to do my figures for all races worth £20k+ on TV, bar 2yos. I then tend to strip out F&M races, then any in which I fancy the fav but it's too short to be value. I'm usually then left with a few races to think more seriously about.
Sometimes (as recently) there have been more than I like, in which case I have to decide whether to have an interest in all of them or double some shorties up etc.
I'm usually much more disciplined than I've been the last couple of weeks but I'm so far ahead for the season I feel as though I'm playing with bookies' money, which is of course a total fallacy!
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
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Going to Haydock,bets are
2.20-DUTCH on Dubawi Sound @ 5-2 [Bet 365] BOG & Masamah @ 5-2 [Bet 365] BOG
4.05-DUTCH on Culdaff @ 5-2 [Bet 365]
4.40-DUTCH on Tartiflette @ 11-2 [Bet 365] BOG.Ashaadd @ 4-1
5.15-Broughton @ Evens [Paddy Power] BOG
£10 win each horse
£10 Profit
EC1
On a break
7.30 my time + errigle lad.........dutched
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Things started off badly and got progressively worse. I won't be looking at the form again until the start of the July Meeting on Thursday but at least that will limit me to 3 or 4 races for the first two days. I need to rediscover my discipline. I know where I went wrong and why although there's nothing much you can do about bad luck.
I expect to win big later this week :lol:
EC1
On a break
Magic Destiny in the 2.30 looks a strong lay on this ground at 2.46
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Good shout Bolero!
Nice call there Bolero
KINGSCROFT 4.30 AYR
Kingscroft probably drives the horsebox himself he races that much but he will need the sat nav today as he has never been to Ayr. However, he does have his ideal conditions. He is due to go up in the weights after good seconds at Chester and Haydock. His second to Mont Ras last Thursday in a better race over 8f looks strong form as Mont Ras was winning for the third time this season and the third, Dubai Hills, has been running with credit in class 3. He drops back to 7f and that is his ideal trip. His record in class 4 over 7f where the top weight is rated between 83-85 reads, 3-8 with a further two seconds and 3-7 with two seconds when in the first three of the betting. Kingscroft is right on the limit of his mark as his record off marks 82-84 reads 4-20 and that improves to 4-10 over 7f in class 4. He’s only been unplaced three times. He is due to go up in the weights and his chances are going to be limited as he is 1-24 off marks of 85 and over.
Orbit The Moon is running into form with two seconds recently. He has gone up 3lbs for those efforts but he is on his last winning mark. He is 0-6 in single figure fields. He couldn’t dispose of class 5 horses last time, 0-75, and has 7lbs more to carry in this better race, 0-85.
Jinky has gone up 3lbs for a second in a 0-80 last time. He is 5lbs higher than his last winning mark and his record off marks 69-73 reads 0-9. His two wins have been on heavy and standard.
Fieldgunner Kirkup is probably better with a bit of give, 0-7 on good to firm.
Orpsie Boy is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark but he is better over 6f than 7f, 2-21, though he is 2-8 over 7f in 0-85. However, he is always held up, sometimes sleeping in the stalls, and with no pace in the race he will struggle to get involved.
Polish Crown is the second Johnston runner and the 3yo makes his debut against his elders. Johnston has a 21% strike rate with this type of horse. He has very little weight but just one maiden win from 15 starts isn’t really good enough here.
Rasaman is 5lbs lower than his last win but he has never placed in 6 starts at Ayr and is 0-3 over 7f.
Conclusion: The defections of Hot Rod Mamma and Mowhoob has meant Kingscroft is going to go off shorter than envisaged. However, he has a lot going for him here. There are no recognised front runners though his main danger Orbit The Moon will probably lead. He should be able to track the pace and his class will tell in the final furlong. This is his last chance to get a win before he goes up in the weights.
KINGSCROFT 4.30 AYR
Kingscroft probably drives the horsebox himself he races that much but he will need the sat nav today as he has never been to Ayr. However, he does have his ideal conditions. He is due to go up in the weights after good seconds at Chester and Haydock. His second to Mont Ras last Thursday in a better race over 8f looks strong form as Mont Ras was winning for the third time this season and the third, Dubai Hills, has been running with credit in class 3. He drops back to 7f and that is his ideal trip. His record in class 4 over 7f where the top weight is rated between 83-85 reads, 3-8 with a further two seconds and 3-7 with two seconds when in the first three of the betting. Kingscroft is right on the limit of his mark as his record off marks 82-84 reads 4-20 and that improves to 4-10 over 7f in class 4. He’s only been unplaced three times. He is due to go up in the weights and his chances are going to be limited as he is 1-24 off marks of 85 and over.
Orbit The Moon is running into form with two seconds recently. He has gone up 3lbs for those efforts but he is on his last winning mark. He is 0-6 in single figure fields. He couldn’t dispose of class 5 horses last time, 0-75, and has 7lbs more to carry in this better race, 0-85.
Jinky has gone up 3lbs for a second in a 0-80 last time. He is 5lbs higher than his last winning mark and his record off marks 69-73 reads 0-9. His two wins have been on heavy and standard.
Fieldgunner Kirkup is probably better with a bit of give, 0-7 on good to firm.
Orpsie Boy is 13lbs lower than his last winning mark but he is better over 6f than 7f, 2-21, though he is 2-8 over 7f in 0-85. However, he is always held up, sometimes sleeping in the stalls, and with no pace in the race he will struggle to get involved.
Polish Crown is the second Johnston runner and the 3yo makes his debut against his elders. Johnston has a 21% strike rate with this type of horse. He has very little weight but just one maiden win from 15 starts isn’t really good enough here.
Rasaman is 5lbs lower than his last win but he has never placed in 6 starts at Ayr and is 0-3 over 7f.
Conclusion: The defections of Hot Rod Mamma and Mowhoob has meant Kingscroft is going to go off shorter than envisaged. However, he has a lot going for him here. There are no recognised front runners though his main danger Orbit The Moon will probably lead. He should be able to track the pace and his class will tell in the final furlong. This is his last chance to get a win before he goes up in the weights.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Nice write-up.
Good write-up Rob. Although, taking an average, his speed figures are not in the top four, Kingscroft's LTO figure is the best. With one of the main dangers Mowhoob out of it, Kingscroft is worth a punt, so will have a go! Good luck with your selection, of course!
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