What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Can't see either of these beaten:

6.10 Chepstow Silver Samba...top apprentice and filly on the improve against exposed horses.
6.40 Chepstown Sacred Square...went close the last time and his closest rival, the Scuttler, is limited.

Pity about the other two who finished ahead of Sacred Sq...beat the Scuttler though. Close but no cigar!
 
Subsequently ran at Royal Ascot over 6f and was bang there after 5f before being (ahem) eased.

I'm convinced tomorrow at Sandown is the day. He's racing over 5f in a Class 3 for the first time since winning over C&D three years ago and with the same jockey, Jim Crowley. Drawn 1 on a track where low draw is best.

Second beaten 1/2 length at Sandown, not given the best ride in the world imo, and yet another jockey change today. Back at Ascot is today the day, even though it's a Class 2 ?
 
Another bunch for you to avoid...

Asc 1.55 Goldream
Asc 2.30 Aljamaaheer
Asc 4.15 Broughton

Nwm 2.05 Defendant
Nwm 3.15 Dance And Dance (& Brae Hill)

Yrk 1.45 Anderiego
Yrk 2.20 Songcraft
Yrk 2.55 Tres Coronas (+Validus & Clon Brulee)
Yrk 4.40 Jonny Delta
 
Sovereign Debt well overpriced. If he doesn't get taken off his feet early he'll go very close.

Michaels horses hitting form as well 3 winners yesterday easily could have been 5.
 
GALE FORCE TEN 3.50 NEWMARKET

Aiden O Brien has had twelve runners in this race since 1999 with three winning. However, there is a pattern amongst the horses he sends across for this. 3yos that run in the Jersey Stakes last time and 4yos+ who run in the Golden Jubilee. Six horses have come here from those races with three winning and one finishing second. The other six horses came here from either the Irish 2000gns or the St James Palace and the closest he came was fourth.
Gale Force Ten won the Jersey Stakes this year and this will be run to suit him. For a July Cup there is hardly any pace. Hamza looks sure to make the running and Gale Force Ten will track the pace. The hold up horses may well not get a run here. Shea Shea, Sole Power and Society Rocky will not be suited by the lack of pace.
 
Sovereign Debt well overpriced. If he doesn't get taken off his feet early he'll go very close.

Michaels horses hitting form as well 3 winners yesterday easily could have been 5.

Star Of Rohm has a good chance tonight as well..his only other runner..6.55 Salisbury...12.0 at the moment and sure to trade shorter
 
Star Of Rohm has a good chance tonight as well..his only other runner..6.55 Salisbury...12.0 at the moment and sure to trade shorter

Think not a bad strategy to back his horses to level stakes for next 4 weeks.
 
At Newton Abbot (4:15) will have a punt on Ahead Ahead at 9/4 with bet365. Good form lately, so in with a chance.
 
TEMPLE LORD 3.15 NEWTON ABBOT

Temple Lord is just 1-18 but he has some credentials today that make him worth supporting. Since the tongue tie was fitted in April he has run with credit in three of his four races. He got mugged by Gentleman Anshan in April when beaten a short head over 20f. The form looks sound with the winner subsequently winning a class 2 off 2lbs higher and recently placing off 7lbs higher. Representingceltic was third and has placed twice off the same mark and That’s The Deal was fourth and he has won and placed a couple of times. He was then fourth to Cardigan Island, won again off 9lbs higher. He was then fifth at Cartmel and looked the winner jumping the last but Temple Lord has a poor record on courses with a long run in and is much better suited to short run ins. He was pulled up when made favourite at Worcester last time, distance too short imo. The stable could offer no explanation for the bad run. However, when Jonjo O Neill and AP McCoy team up with a horse that is favourite and it pulls up, they worth noting as their record on their next run reads 7-17.

Polisky placed in graded hurdle and it is possible that he is very well handicapped here over the larger obstacles. He was beaten 2ls by Victor Leudorum last time in a novice chase and he should get closer this time on 3lbs better terms. He was beaten 5ls by the same horse in a novice hurdle. He was previously third of four to Overturn and Thanks For Coming and if that form is taken literally, he is passed the post already off a mark of 122. He also has a fourth to Grade 1 winner Sire De Grugy in his portfolio. Nicholls has a 26% strike rate in handicap chases here and Polisky is entitled to run well but he hasn’t carried this much physical weight before.

Victor Leudorum was beaten 25ls by Bold Chief when last seen. He previously needed every yard of the 21.5f at Ascot to overhaul Polisky and won going away in the end. He has conditions to suit and should run well but he is another who has never carried this much physical weight before.

Adrenalin Flight steps up in grade after winning 0-110 last time. That was Seamus Mullins first winner for two months and he is currently 1-35. He is without a winner in handicap chases for three years here, 0-12, none placing. Adrenalin Flight drops back in distance and may find things happening a bit too quick for him. He is going to find this 0-125 tougher off 5lbs higher.

Tiermore makes his debut for Peter Bowen. He run a cracker in a handicap hunter chase from 10lbs out of the handicap when third to Chapoturgeon two runs back and then won on his next outing. Peter Bowen has a 21% strike rate with horses making their debut for him from another yard and the last two he has sent to Newton Abbot have both won. Only one came from the Hunter Chase discipline and that lost.

Rob Conti won a 0-140 at Sandown off 121 but he has struggled off his new mark in last two races. He is still 4lbs higher here. He carried 11-9 to win a 0-110 but 11-12 in a 0-125 is a big ask.

Kylenoe Fairy is 3-6 at Newton Abbot but it is three years since she run in a chase. She did win a point many moons ago but she is 0-14 over distances beyond 19f.

Manger Hanagement won a poor 0-120 in April and is still a couple of pounds higher. He is 0-16 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more.

Easily Pleased was last seen under rules in October 2011 at Tramore. However, he has won two point to points this year and makes his rules debut for Martin Hill. This has been the target for the horse as they have had a few problems to iron out. Hill is 3-35 when a horse makes its debut for him when arriving from another yard, 0-14 under NH rules.

Conclusion: This is quite a competitive heat but there are niggling doubts about a few. Tiermore is likely to go off favourite and with Peter Bowen in sublime form he should run well. Polisky and Victor Leudorum are another two who could run well here. However, Temple Lord has improved for the tongue tie and with the blinkers still applied he will be much better suited to this tight track today. O’Neill and McCoy’s record with beaten favourites that pull up is very good and he is good value. He is a strong traveller just off the pace and with no recognised front runner, he may well have this run to suit him and McCoy might just be able to cajole him to his second victory.
 
Betting at Wolverhampton tonight

6.20-Autopilot @ 6-4 [Betfred] BOG..Win

6.50-Aloha @ 13-8 [Bet Victor] BOG.Win

8.50-Sixties Queen @ 12-1 [Betfred] BOG..Each Way

9.20-Star City @ 9-2 [Bet 365] BOG...Each Way
 
FUEL INJECTION 2.00 BEVERLEY (EACH WAY)

Fuel Injection has had a little break and should come back much stronger today. He was just 10/1 for the Brocklesby. He slept in the stalls and showed some dash to catch up before weakening on soft ground towards the finish. He then turned up at Redcar where he was 5/1 second favourite. Once again he was slow away before showing speed and weakening inside the final furlong. If he has got his start right at home he could be something to bet on here. He has a DI of 7.0 so he is bred for speed and being by Pastoral Pursuits he should run well here. Pastoral Pursuit’s 2yos run this course well with 5 winning from 23, 5-12 in the last 12 months. Midgely is 2-76 with his 2yos but he did saddle the second in this this race 7 years ago with one of them. If it isn’t today, there is a claiming race Midgely has won and had placed horses in here next week that may well be the target.
Mick Easterby has Bajan Rebel in the race and he is a ridiculous price. Mick is 2-128 with his 2yos at this track and Bajan Rebel has a DI of 1.0 which suggests things may be happening a little too quickly for him over this distance. Jamboree Girl has a DI of 2.43 which suggests she will be thereabouts. She is by Bahamian Bounty whose 2yo progeny are 5-30 here and this season his progeny have run three times here with two wins and a second. Back Lane has a DI of 3.0 and is by Invincible Spirit whose progeny are 4-12 at Beverley as 2yos. Lilo Lil is by Captain Gerrard whose progeny are just starting to come into their own with 3-9 this month winning. None have handled Beverley though, 0-5. Seven of his eight winners have come on easy tracks and they don’t appear to handle stiff tracks, 0-16. Belayer looks sure to need further in time with a DI of 1.4. Anticipated is the only 2yo to win this season by his sire Whipper. Born To Fly is another who will be suited by further with a DI of 1.67. Elualla has a DI of 2.2 but comes from a yard that has sent out 67 2yos since their last winner. Shikari is bred to stay further with a DI of 1.4.

Conclusion: The likeliest winners are Jamboree Girl, Back Lane and Fuel Injection. Fuel Injection must have been showing something at home for him to be so low in the betting on his first two runs. He is drawn in 3 and he looks worth an each way punt.

HEADSTIGHT 2.30 BEVERLEY (EACH WAY)

Headstight is a 17 race maiden drawn in stall 11, so should have a big black line through her name. However, Paul Midgely’s mare has looked a tad unlucky on both her last two runs. He fourth at Thirsk where she was the first one home on he far side looks strong form. The winner has placed off 6lbs and 9lbs higher; the second has won off the same mark. The third was Pull The Pin who won at Southwell off 9lbs higher. He is much better on the all weather 3-9 as opposed to turf, 0-14. The fifth won off the same mark. She then went to Beverley over this distance and met all sorts of trouble. She slept in the stalls and then bumped into horses as she made her run. The winner Bondi Beach Boy was a handicap good thing that night. She was 2ls behind Ingenti in that race, 1lb better off today.

Conclusion: There are quite a few of these who are going the wrong way and can be safely eliminated. There are also at least four horses that can front run so a good pace should be set. Midgely does compound things with Chocamoca but he got awfully fractious in the stalls last time and left his race in there. On a line through Bondi Beach Boy he should win this but he is going to have company for the lead. Headstight is badly drawn but she can drop in and make her move late on. She has been finishing her races off well and no horse will be finishing faster. She looks a banker to reach the frame and each way support should be rewarded.

MOJOLIKA 3.00 BEVERLEY

Mojolika won this in 2011 and was second last year and races off 1lb lower. He had a nice freshener over hurdles the other day and he should be primed to make his mark. The race will be run to suit.

Tartan Jura had all his own way last time when making all at Catterick but he will have company today with Body Language in the race. Tartan Jura races off 75 and his record off marks 72-76 reads 0-12 and is 0-10 in class 4. Johnston won this last year.

Body Language is still 5lbs higher than his last win and is 0-3 off marks 73-77. With Tartan Jura this may well end up as a pace battle and both his wins have come when he has had his own way up front.

Nashville used to be a former stablemate of Body Language so one would think Ian Williams would have his measure. However, Fahey has probably improved Nashville. He is yet to win on turf but he can race freely which wouldn’t be a good thing here. Fahey is 2-5 in 16f handicaps at Beverley and won this back in 2008.

Platinum may also get lit up by the pace here as he likes to race prominently. He has a lot of physical weight here, the maximum he has carried on the flat has been 9-5 and he unplaced twice with that burden.

Up Ten Down Two is another who can race on the front end and does race keenly. He is 0-9 on turf. He had a good second to Mafeteng at York last year over 16f off 68 and is still 2lbs higher for that effort. Mick Easterby is 1-9 in 16f handicaps here and there is a race in Up Ten Down Two but whether it’s today is debatable.

Conclusion: Mojolika couldn’t have picked better opposition today. He has no improving 3yos to worry about and plenty of pace in the race. He is suited by small fields, 3-8 in fields of 7 or less. He should pick this lot off before embarking on another hurdling campaign.
 
This evening's QR race at Killarney is a relatively classy affair of its type, but at the weights I think Midnight Oil has a strong chance.

He is receiving weight from his main rivals while having an age and ratings advantage over them. Connections were disappointed he didn't do better at Ascot but any horse can be forgiven for not shining over the 2m4f of that race.

Marchese Marconi should go well on the fast ground and might well improve a bit on it, and Digeanta is another potential improver. However given the weight concession Midnight Oil should hold them off and the 2/1 available seems very reasonable.
 
This evening's QR race at Killarney is a relatively classy affair of its type, but at the weights I think Midnight Oil has a strong chance.

He is receiving weight from his main rivals while having an age and ratings advantage over them. Connections were disappointed he didn't do better at Ascot but any horse can be forgiven for not shining over the 2m4f of that race.

Marchese Marconi should go well on the fast ground and might well improve a bit on it, and Digeanta is another potential improver. However given the weight concession Midnight Oil should hold them off and the 2/1 available seems very reasonable.

At the weights looks nailed gwan ya gud thing!!!!! Katie obliged last night in the bumper great ride so hopefully again tonite
 
KASTINI 2.30 LINGFIELD

Kastini takes a drop in class here after running well behind Debdebdeb in a 0-70. He travelled well that day and came to win his race but he was faced with a strong headwind and was run out of it in the final half furlong. The form is strong; Debdebdeb went on to finish second in a class 2, and the second won a class 5. The fourth, fifth and ninth all placed on their next run. Dennis Coakley has booked Fallon and his record on Coakley horses when in the first two in the betting reads 3-11, that improves in handicaps to 3-7.

Nullarbor Sky was behind Kastini last time but was one paced over the last 2f and even with a weight pull she shouldn’t turn the tables. Sugar Coated must have thought she was in a slalom last time after switching left and right to get a run. However, she handicaps herself by sleeping in the stalls. Uncle Bernie ran reasonable last time but looks to possess just the one gear. He is an Aussie Rules grey and this distance is right on the limit for his progeny. Dalaway is a hard puller who is held up and expends a lot of energy in the early part of his races. He will need to settle better before he can collect. With First Secretary a non runner, this looks a very weak heat.

Conclusion: Kastini has run well on both his last two starts in better races than this and looks ready to collect with Fallon booked. There is no pace in the race so it will pay to be on the front end. Kastini may even make the running. There doesn’t appear to be any dangers and the majority of these will end up jumping twigs at some stage.
 
KASTINI 2.30 LINGFIELD

Kastini takes a drop in class here after running well behind Debdebdeb in a 0-70. He travelled well that day and came to win his race but he was faced with a strong headwind and was run out of it in the final half furlong. The form is strong; Debdebdeb went on to finish second in a class 2, and the second won a class 5. The fourth, fifth and ninth all placed on their next run. Dennis Coakley has booked Fallon and his record on Coakley horses when in the first two in the betting reads 3-11, that improves in handicaps to 3-7.

Nullarbor Sky was behind Kastini last time but was one paced over the last 2f and even with a weight pull she shouldn’t turn the tables. Sugar Coated must have thought she was in a slalom last time after switching left and right to get a run. However, she handicaps herself by sleeping in the stalls. Uncle Bernie ran reasonable last time but looks to possess just the one gear. He is an Aussie Rules grey and this distance is right on the limit for his progeny. Dalaway is a hard puller who is held up and expends a lot of energy in the early part of his races. He will need to settle better before he can collect. With First Secretary a non runner, this looks a very weak heat.

Conclusion: Kastini has run well on both his last two starts in better races than this and looks ready to collect with Fallon booked. There is no pace in the race so it will pay to be on the front end. Kastini may even make the running. There doesn’t appear to be any dangers and the majority of these will end up jumping twigs at some stage.

Well done lad, pays for a golf bet. Much obliged.
 
KASTINI 2.30 LINGFIELD

Kastini takes a drop in class here after running well behind Debdebdeb in a 0-70. He travelled well that day and came to win his race but he was faced with a strong headwind and was run out of it in the final half furlong. The form is strong; Debdebdeb went on to finish second in a class 2, and the second won a class 5. The fourth, fifth and ninth all placed on their next run. Dennis Coakley has booked Fallon and his record on Coakley horses when in the first two in the betting reads 3-11, that improves in handicaps to 3-7.

Nullarbor Sky was behind Kastini last time but was one paced over the last 2f and even with a weight pull she shouldn’t turn the tables. Sugar Coated must have thought she was in a slalom last time after switching left and right to get a run. However, she handicaps herself by sleeping in the stalls. Uncle Bernie ran reasonable last time but looks to possess just the one gear. He is an Aussie Rules grey and this distance is right on the limit for his progeny. Dalaway is a hard puller who is held up and expends a lot of energy in the early part of his races. He will need to settle better before he can collect. With First Secretary a non runner, this looks a very weak heat.

Conclusion: Kastini has run well on both his last two starts in better races than this and looks ready to collect with Fallon booked. There is no pace in the race so it will pay to be on the front end. Kastini may even make the running. There doesn’t appear to be any dangers and the majority of these will end up jumping twigs at some stage.

Good work again Rob
 
good call Rob

can't have exceptionelle in the 6.35 race....dropping back too keen horses imo is a last resort that doesn't come off enough to warrant the very short price this is..layed at 2.10
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top