What are you backing Today?

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GIFTED GIRL 4.00 PONTEFRACT

This looks a two horse race on official figures between Gifted Girl and Ladys First. They met at Epsom and Gifted Girl beat Ladys First by 1l when they were 2nd and 3rd to Thistle Bird. They meet on the same terms today. Gifted Girl ran on at Epsom whilst Ladys First kept on at one pace. Ladys First went on to flop at York in a first time hood and without the hood went to Ascot and outrun her price with a brave second to Duntle. Paul Cole does well at Pontefract and excluding maidens he is 4-7 in all other non handicaps.

Conclusion: Gifted Girl has the Beverley D Stakes at Arlington on the agenda in August so she is clearly an improving filly. She is tactically adept so it won’t matter if there is no pace. She should take this before heading off to America.

HEAD SPACE 4.30 PONTEFRACT

It is just over a year since Headspace last won but he is very well handicapped off 78 today, 13lbs lower than that win. He has been very busy, this is his fourth run in 17 days but he put up a very good performance behind Pea Shooter the other day producing his best speed figure and he is 8lbs clear on Raceform ratings. His best form imo was his fourth to Harrison George in a 0-105 off 83. The winner has won again and the second and third have placed in better races. Ruth Carr has saddled the second in the last two runnings of this event and she must hold up high hopes of going one better.

Conclusion: There should be enough pace on here even with Orbit The Moon a non runner. Meandmyshadow and Chester Aristocrat should make the running and if Solar Spirit doesn’t blow the start he will be up here as well. Head Space is due to go up in the weights. He is well drawn and is incredibly well handicapped. He can handle the class and the uphill finish will bring out the best of him.


MY GIGI 7.35 SOUTHWELL

A class 6 maiden handicap at Southwell shouldn’t be on the radar as betting purposes but there is a stand out bet here. Gary Moore has a superb record on the fibresand. His record in handicaps reads 15-75 which improves when they are ridden by George Baker to 5-13. That improves to 5-11 when they are in the first three of the betting and again to 3-5 when racing over 8f.My Gigi run in a maiden that has worked out well. The winner, Running Reef went on to win a handicap off 8lbs higher, the fourth home, Woody Bay, has won two class 5 handicaps off 63 and 69. The fifth was Relight My Fire who won yesterday at Ayr off 60. She has some very good form in races on good to soft including a maiden fourth to Fort Knox who has won a listed race. Beautiful View was second in that race and Sea Shanty was third. There are a few that like to lead in the race and she will get the pace she needs to aim at. She should relish this surface tonight and given Moore’s record here she looks like she will be difficult to beat.

Conclusion: There are three or four front runners in this and that should set it up for a closer. My Gigi will be staying on when most of these will be crying enough is enough and she is an excellent price which makes her a play.
 
MLMRob said:
GIFTED GIRL 4.00 PONTEFRACT

This looks a two horse race on official figures between Gifted Girl and Ladys First. They met at Epsom and Gifted Girl beat Ladys First by 1l when they were 2nd and 3rd to Thistle Bird. They meet on the same terms today. Gifted Girl ran on at Epsom whilst Ladys First kept on at one pace. Ladys First went on to flop at York in a first time hood and without the hood went to Ascot and outrun her price with a brave second to Duntle. Paul Cole does well at Pontefract and excluding maidens he is 4-7 in all other non handicaps.

Conclusion: Gifted Girl has the Beverley D Stakes at Arlington on the agenda in August so she is clearly an improving filly. She is tactically adept so it won’t matter if there is no pace. She should take this before heading off to America.
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Excellent write up, did the forcast on what you said, although think Ultrasonic would have came second with a clear run...but excellent, thanks :)
 
7.30 Naas - Morethanmyjobsworth

Stable flying, horse in form, granted it's a better race than he's been running in, but at the weights he's worth a bet at 6-1.
 
DHHAMAAN 4.50 CATTERICK

Dhhamaan has his ideal conditions today. He is 8-78 in all handicaps but that improves to 6-23 when racing over 7f on good or good to firm. That improves again when the top weighted horse is rated 65 or less to 5-7. He won this race in 2010 and flopped in 2011. He produced a third to West Leake Hare two runs back, beaten a neck, a head in a 0-70 and that form looks strong with the winner going in again in a 0-80 off 3lbs higher. The second came out and won a 0-70. The fourth got mugged in a 0-70 and the eighth has also won. Dhhamaan was second himself last time in a 0-70 and the third and seventh have subsequently won. It all depends on whether he can lead and with the absence of recognised front runners he can blast out and make all.

Blue Shoes is 0-12 on good or good to firm and 0-5 at Catterick.

Strong Man is 0-14 on turf and though both his wins on the all weather came in this grade he is 1-15 in double figure fields and 0-11, never placed, in fields of 12 or more runners.

No Quarter is 0-11 off marks above 60, 0-4 off 61 and 62. He is 0-4 when carrying 9-7 or more and 0-11 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more.

Tony Hollis could possibly challenge Dhhamaan for the lead but it isn’t certain. There is nothing between him and Dhhamaan on a line through Silver Rime. However, both his wins have come at Musselburgh and he is 0-11 going left handed and he is 0-8 off marks 51-55.

Star City has won here over 7f in a soft ground maiden, but he is 0-11 on good or good to firm. He hasn’t shown much this season.

Refuse Collettte is a 15 race maiden who has placed three times over 7f. She has her first race for Paul Green who is 0-11 with other peoples cast offs on their debut run for him. None have placed.

Prince of Vasa is 0-18 on the turf and has three wins on the all weather, one over 7f. However, he has never carried more than 9-4 to victory in a handicap and his record of 0-8 with just one place when carrying 9-5 or more is not inspiring.

Ursus is 0-4 over 7f but he has won over 6f. He was second off 55 over this course and distance last season. The yard has not had a winner since August 2012, 0-30, but a few have run well into places recently. However, Ursus is drawn in 12 and stalls 12 and 13 have a terrible record in all aged 7f handicaps on good or good to firm, 1-27.

Karate Queen is a 38 race maiden.

Don’t Tell has shown nothing in her 5 races to date. She has never been less than 33/1.

Dansili Dutch is 0-5 over 7f and is 0-6 when returning to the track inside a fortnight.

Whistle We Go has led for a furlong in her last two races and faded.

Conclusion: A lot of these have absolutely nothing to recommend them and look like they are there to make the numbers up. Dhhamaan is the most consistent of them. He has one way of running, blasting out and trying to make all. The horses above him in the weights all have major negatives to overcome and he should see this lot off.


DECISION BY ONE 7.20 KEMPTON

Decision By One showed excellent speed in a better race than this last time and he was just run out of in the final 100yards by Rusty Rocket, weakening into fifth. The form looks sound as the fourth home, Storm Moon has come out and won a 0-95 and the eighth, Doctor Parkes won a 0-95 as well. The sixth has finished third in a 0-85. Decision By One has won twice off a mark of 80 and is off 78 tonight. Dropping down to a 0-80 with just one other front runner he must hold a sound chance.

Desert Strike is the other speedster and he has won three of his last four rising from a mark of 69 to 79 tonight. Though he has won four times over 6f, 4-47, his best form is over 5f. He has run in class 4 31 times and lost them all.

Artic Lynx is 1lb lower than his win at Wolverhampton in October but he is 0-7 at Kempton. He is 1-20 in class 4.

The Tichborne is 5lbs higher than his win at Lingfield in April. He did win off 83 two years ago but he has never placed in four races off marks 73-77 since then. He clearly isn’t that good now. He does prefer the all weather but he is 0-3, never placed, at Kempton. All three of his wins have been at Lingfield.

Tagula Night is 4lbs higher than his win at Sandown and is certainly capable of winning off this mark. However, it is two years and 13 races since he won a race over 6f.

Living Leader is 7lbs higher than his win last year and his third in a 0-80 off 79 in April would give him a chance here. However, Nick Littmoden finds winners hard to come by with just 2 from 29 in the last six months and he is on a losing run of 16 stretching back to March. He is 5-96 in handicaps at Kempton, his last winner was four years ago and 28 have lost since.

Jocasta Dawn is lightly raced and has only raced on an artificial surface once. She probably needs a bit of cut to show her best.

Ashpan Sam is 0-11 over 6f.

Ocean Legend is a seven time winner round here but is 0-6 over 6f and just 2-23 in class 4.

Elna Bright is 1-10 at Kempton. He is on a losing run of 21 stretching back to November 2011. He is well handicapped as his last win was off 90 but it is a leap of faith supporting him.

Heartsong is 0-9 over 6f and 0-4 on the all weather.

Conclusion: Quite a few of these can lead but haven’t for some time. Two that are guaranteed to lead are Desert Strike and Decision By One. Desert Strike has an awful draw and will do well to get on the front end. With four sleepers on his inside, Decision By One should get out and be away. His speed had better horses than this trouble last time and he may well not come back here.
 
Great write-ups, Rob!

The 2:40 at Yarmouth is a truly awful race, but since the only chance Helamis has of winning something is in a heat like this, I'll take a chance with the filly. Owned by the appropriately-named Mr.D.A.Shekells, I will have just a few of mine on his young lady at 9/4. Just for fun, like!
 
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Catterick 3.50 Red Orator

My intention was to back this one at the RP forecast 9/2 but I doubt it was ever going to be that kind of price. I'm not sure who makes them up. I half-expected you guys to be barking this one so I thought I'd give it a woof myself. It's one from the influential Newmarket handicap in May that has thrown up noted (on here) winners.

My thinking was that I was getting 9/2 about whether it would be trying or not. It disappointed at Goodwood last time but probably expended too much energy cutting out a strong pace. Connections had previously remarked that the Ascot Stakes was on the agenda so my concern today is that one of the marathons at Goodwood is now the aim but at 9/2 I was prepared to play. At the current 2/1 I'm not.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Catterick 3.50 Red Orator

My intention was to back this one at the RP forecast 9/2 but I doubt it was ever going to be that kind of price. I'm not sure who makes them up. I half-expected you guys to be barking this one so I thought I'd give it a woof myself. It's one from the influential Newmarket handicap in May that has thrown up noted (on here) winners.

My thinking was that I was getting 9/2 about whether it would be trying or not. It disappointed at Goodwood last time but probably expended too much energy cutting out a strong pace. Connections had previously remarked that the Ascot Stakes was on the agenda so my concern today is that one of the marathons at Goodwood is now the aim but at 9/2 I was prepared to play. At the current 2/1 I'm not.
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I looked at it myself this morning but here are a possible four front runners in the race and it looks set up for Dr Irv whom I wouldn't back as his best form is in 0-65 or less. 0-10 in anything above.
If Red Orator can dictate matters then he will win.
 
Bolero said:
Great write-ups, Rob!

The 2:40 at Yarmouth is a truly awful race, but since the only chance Helamis has of winning something is in a heat like this, I'll take a chance with the filly. Owned by the appropriately-named Mr.D.A.Shekells, I will have just a few of mine on his young lady at 9/4. Just for fun, like!
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Good shout Bolero.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Catterick 3.50 Red Orator

My intention was to back this one at the RP forecast 9/2 but I doubt it was ever going to be that kind of price. I'm not sure who makes them up. I half-expected you guys to be barking this one so I thought I'd give it a woof myself. It's one from the influential Newmarket handicap in May that has thrown up noted (on here) winners.

My thinking was that I was getting 9/2 about whether it would be trying or not. It disappointed at Goodwood last time but probably expended too much energy cutting out a strong pace. Connections had previously remarked that the Ascot Stakes was on the agenda so my concern today is that one of the marathons at Goodwood is now the aim but at 9/2 I was prepared to play. At the current 2/1 I'm not.
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Haven't seen the race but reading the analysis I suspect it's got Goodwood in mind.

A pony saved is a pony earned...
 
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Kem 9.20 Yajber

I can't be certain how this will run but I couldn't be laying this at 46.0.

Obvious negatives are sold for 2.5k last time, moved from an out of form trainer to another out of form trainer.

On the plus side, its a poor event with the obvious improver drawn in stall 14 and h/cap debut may have been a learning exercise for new trainer, in a race that looks stronger than this.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haven't seen the race but reading the analysis I suspect it's got Goodwood in mind.

A pony saved is a pony earned...
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Race was compromised badly at the start where he missed the break, lost ground and couldn't go forward immediately.

Enjoyed the write ups here folks. The process that goes into the selection just as interesting as the tip, if not more so in my opinion.
 
I thought Rosdhu Queen ran well on last 2 runs, not getting home over 7f in G/S ground at Newbury and held up some way off the pace last time, perhaps a bit of an over reaction to the lack of finish at Newbury. Today, at 6f on a decent surface I'd give her a good chance at 5/2 against last years winner Gracia Directa.
 
Have backed Elusive Kate at 5/2 in the 2:40 at Newmarket. With only four runners has a chance to upset Sky Lantern in this. Just a chance, though!
 
Don't think she'll lose the race in the stewards' room as jockey had whip in correct hand (left)? Anyway, pretty sure I'm on first past the post, plus BOG, so bet looks OK.
 
Lucky to keep the race imo as it was a bad drift across the course Wm Buicks 3 days hols speaks volumes, rules need changing or maybe the stewards.
2 up in my Yankee im not complaining 7/2 and 3 /1 Oilily in Cork and SACRED SQUARE at Chepstow
 
Thanks Rob. Yes, a 4-runner field does throw-up the odd surprise. Baldeagle makes a good point, the drift across the track was very bad, but I question whether it would have affected the final result? Sky Lantern just could not seem to strike a real blow IMHO. Had it been a sh or a nose, then the final outcome might have been different? We'll never know.
 
Can't see either of these beaten:

6.10 Chepstow Silver Samba...top apprentice and filly on the improve against exposed horses.
6.40 Chepstown Sacred Square...went close the last time and his closest rival, the Scuttler, is limited.
 
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME 2.55 YORK

Niceofyoutotellme is most progressive. He beat Nabucco last time who went on to frank the form by winning a class 2 off 3lbs higher. Before that he previously beat Ice Buster who won his next race and recently has been second beaten a length off 9lbs higher. Homeric was sixth and has won since. The seventh has also won. Niceofyoutotellme has a lot going for him here. He is a hold up horse, 8-9 winners of this race have been held up. He has a double figure draw, 8-9 winners on good or good to firm had double figure draws. He is by a horse whose progeny have won at York before; 7-9 winners have had family winners at York. All nine winners were in the first five of the betting last time out of which Niceofyoutotellme was.

Conclusion: There is plenty of pace on here with Area Fifty One, Fennell Bay and Awake My Soul all front runners. Crowley should be able to switch Niceofyoutotellme off at the back and with luck in running he can pick these off.
 
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