What are you backing Today?

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Hamilton 7.45 Johannes
Disappointed last time in softish ground but looked on the way back the time before (off 86) behind Nocturn. Is probably being aimed at the consolation Stewards' Cup again having won it twice in recent years. Last season he needed a win to get into the race; this time he needs a penalty to be sure of getting in. His win in June last year off today's 83 was enough to get him into the race but his recent defeat wasn't, I reckon, part of the plan unless it was to ensure he picked up the necessary penalty afterwards. If he's going to go to Goodwood, he needs to win. I missed the early 20/1 but got 16s [BOG].

Newbury 4.35 Lord Ofthe Shadows
I had to think about whether to punt this one. I was on the last twice and he's found trouble in running both times as well as the twice before that. It may be that he's the type who will always find trouble. He's also stepping up to 10f for the first time since beaten in a photo on his only prior attempt at Lngfield in April. Today's race is arguably a drop in class from last time and certainly from his unlucky half-length chinning by Vainglory at Epsom at the end of May. He's off the same mark as the last last twice and I reckon they're trying to find a winnable race for him. This could be it. Assuming he stays and avoids interference, the others have to find something to beat him. It's a fair old assumption but I don't fancy the others to do it so am content to take the 5/1 [BOG].

Two win singles and an each-way double.
 
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CONO ZUR 5.30 HAYDOCK

Cono Zur should get his own way up front today and he could run this lot into the ground. He was second to Robert The Painter the other day and they were the only two horses to get into the race. He was just run out of it in the last 100 yards. He is 1-1 when returning inside 5 days. He is on a long losing run but his last win was an 8f handicap here a year ago off 69. He is 3lbs better off today and has a very good apprentice on board. Lee McNiff is 1-6 for Ruth Carr, 1-2 apprentice races. This race is slightly easier than the one on Tuesday.

Prime Exhibit may well have been the selection if there had been pace in the race. He needs to have something to aim at but he won’t get that today. He doesn’t carry weight that well, 0-9 when carrying 9-5 or more with just one place. He has a top apprentice booked and will run his race.

Chiswick Bey is 0-6 on good to firm and all of his wins have come on a straight track, 0-8 going round a left hand bend. He has his first run for Phil Kirby who does well with other peoples cast offs, 9-87 and has saddled three winners this season, the latest was a horse from Noel Quinlan, same as Chiswick Bey. He is very well handicapped but he has never placed in four races at 8f-8.5f.

Mccool Bannanas usually sleeps in the stalls, hence his record of 1-27 and 0-6 on the flat. He did win at Wolverhampton in March when he managed to get away on terms. That was in class 6 and he is 0-16 in class 5.

Berlusca has only ever won at Wolverhampton and is currently 0-10 on turf. He is now qualified for 0-70s and being 1-16 in class 5 he may well be worth noting in a 0-70 at Wolverhampton.

Rio Cobolo is yet to place in five outings over 8f-8.5f. His last win on turf was here three years ago and is currently on a losing run of 27 on grass surfaces.

Silvas Romanas is 0-5, never placed on good to firm or quicker.

Hayek is 0-8 on good to firm and though very well handicapped and Rachel Richardson has won him before. He is another who falls asleep in the stalls.

Conclusion: Lee McNiff has won two of the last four apprentice races he has ridden in and he has another good opportunity here. He should be able to set soft fractions on Cono Zur and it is likely he won’t see another horse.

EAGER TO BOW 8.55 NEWMARKET

Eager To Bow needs to have something to aim at and can be counted unlucky last time when second in a similar race over 8f. He has never won over that distance and all his wins have come over 7f, 7-26. With Johnnie Skull and Saskias Rose in the race he should have the pace he needs as there are plenty more who race prominently and he should be able to pick this lot up as the uphill finish will suit. He is 3-7 at Brighton which has an uphill finish.
 
Cheers guys.
He was held up at Ripon a few runs back but usually leads. Result was the main thing.:)
 
1:50 Newmarket ES QUE LOVE bit worried it's one run too many but a reproduction of the form of his last three runs wins this.
2:05 Newbury ARSAADI still well-in after a good run at Royal Ascot
3:40 Newmarket CHARLOTTE ROSINA (NAP) good speed figure last time out at Epsom, still well-handicapped.
 
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Cartmel looks a cracking card today and CHURCH FIELD 5.05 looks an excellent bet at the foot of the weights for a 4 timer and looking like he's not done yet.
TAX FREE's form figures at Newmarket (4.50) read 4 wins 3 3rds and 1 2nd 9/2 and a certain RL Moore booked will do for me.
 
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Good luck

2.45 Cartmel-Merrydown Vintage

Each way @ 7-1 [Bet 365] BOG

Would have gone close if not unseating in last race
 
I’M SO GLAD 3.40 NEWMARKET

I’m So Glad ran a cracker in the Bunbury Cup last week to take her course record to four races with two wins and two placed. Her previous third to My Propeller and Jwala in the Land O Burns at Ayr looks strong form with the second beating My Propeller and fourth, Excellete in a listed race at York. I’m So Glad won two races over this course last summer off 90 and 92 and Charlie Bishop’s 3lbs claim makes her very well handicapped today. She drops back to 6f today and in class and she may well take a bit of catching. She is 2-3 in fields of 7 or less runners.

Midnight Flower is the likely jolly and makes her debut against her elders. She won a 0-85 as she liked last time, second has placed twice off higher marks. This is a big ask for the filly but she should run her race. Simcock has an 18% strike rate with 3yos making their debut against their elders, 0-3 this season

Elusive Flame is 9lbs higher than her win in a class 3 here last year, her last win. She is 0-8 in races where the top weight has been rated 90 or higher. She is 0-10 in races that have an average OR of 84 or higher. It is 88 today. She likes to lead but it is doubtful she will have enough pace to keep up with I’m So Glad.

Links Drive Lady is 6lbs higher than her win at Goodwood in a 0-95 and she looks to be still improving. She is now 24lbs higher than she was a year ago. She has conditions to suit.

Poetic Dancer hasn’t won for almost two years and is still 5lbs higher than her last win in a class 4. She is 0-4in class 3.

Charlotte Rosina won a class 4 off 85 at Kempton in May. She does struggle against this level, 0-5 and off 5lbs higher today she may find things happening too quickly. She is 5lbs better off with Links Drive Lady on their meeting in May when just under 2ls behind. She is 0-8 in races where the top weight is rated 86 or higher.

Tassel needs soft ground to show her best. She has never placed in three races on good ground and never run on the ground this quick. She is 0-3, never placed in class 3.

Conclusion: I’m So Glad won a race at next weekend’s meeting last year and I thought that’s where she would be heading after her excellent third in the Bunbury Cup. This looks a good opportunity for the filly and her basic flat line speed should put most of these to the sword. Links Drive Lady is the main danger as she has won three of the last four races she has competed in against her own sex but she may get taken off her feet here.


SULA TWO 5.00 NEWBURY

Sula Two doesn’t often run over this distance. She has won over 17f at Bath and has placed on this course over 16f. She was second to Beyond last time and the third horse, Sunny Future, has subsequently won. She drops in class here and she gives away weight well, 4-13 when in the top three of the weights, 2-6 when top weight. Her record improves when in the first four of the betting to 3-5, 1-2 as top weight. Philip Prince is a regular pilot on the mare and his record of 6-54 in handicaps for Ron Hodges improves to 6-20 when in the first four of the betting and again to 3-4 on Sula Two. Sula Two is pretty adept tactics wise and with no pace in this race she will probably race prominently.

Our Folly has been doing well over 16f with two wins from five races but he is yet to win at this level, 0-6. He was second in a class 4 last time when beaten 4ls by Riptide. He has gone up 2lbs for that and is now 6lbs higher than his last win in a class 5.He is a hold up horse and this won’t be run to suit.

Double Cee has unplaced twice over 16f from just the two runs. He has been dropped a pound since his fourth of six in a class 5 last time. He is now just 2lbs higher than his last winning mark. However, all three of his wins have come on right handed tracks and he is 0-13 going left handed. He is 0-4 on good to firm or quicker and is a hold up horse.

Hi Note has a win and a second from two races over 16f on good to firm or quicker. She was second at Lingfield a few days ago when she had nothing left to give in a class 5,btn 1.75ls, and off 3lbs higher she may well struggle here. She is 9lbs higher than her win in a class 6.

Cosimo De Medici won the Cesarewitch trial off 84 two years ago and hasn’t won since. He will interest people off 78 today but his attitude is very poor. He is often very slowly away and sometimes refuses to leave the stalls. He could easily win this if back to form of two years ago but he is most regressive now.

Rocktherunway steps up to 16f for the first time and has Lee Topliss booked to ride, 2-4 on the horse. He should run well but he is a hold up horse.

Kayef is a 10 race maiden on the flat, 0-9 on turf. He is 0-8 on good or quicker ground and his sole win under NH rules was on good to soft.

Eshtyaaq is an 18 race maiden who has been placed seven times. If he can get back near the form when second in a class 3 two years ago off 73 he might be able to break his duck but he struggled in a class 5 maiden handicap last time and he will soon be eligible for class 6.

CONCLUSION: There appears to be very little pace in this race. Kayef or High Note might lead but Sula Two is happy just sitting off the pace and she is most consistent. She should be able to run the finish out the hold up horses and take her course wins to three.

NURPUR 8.30 HAYDOCK

Nurpur has improved markedly since the application of a hood. She has a win and two seconds from just three races. She was second to good thing Noble Deed last time, in a visor, who was subsequently made favourite for a class 3 at York. Previously, Nurpur finished second to Pipers Note in a 0-95 and that horse has franked the form by winning again off 8lbs higher. The third home was Rhagori Aur who went on to finish a cracking second to Secondo the other day. Back in a hood today and in a 0-75, Nurpur must take all the beating.

Fraserburgh won his maiden in March but hasn’t shown much in handicaps since. He does have a 3l third of seven at Yarmouth in April in the book but 14 horses have come out of that race and all lost. He has never placed in 7 races over 8f.

Jullundar looks to have improved in the visor with two seconds in the headgear. He was one paced last time over 10f and drops back to 8f, a distance he was second in his previous race. The handicapper has left him alone but he is a 12 race maiden.

Gabrial The Thug has been getting well beat over longer and drops back to a mile. He doesn’t look to be progressing, though his sire, Azamour, has a 21% strike rate with his 3yo progeny over 8f, albeit that drops to 12% with maidens in a handicap.

Switcharooney has shown nothing and Dascombe is 1-39 with horse in first time cheekpieces.

World Record should lead here. He won his maiden nicely enough for Richard Hannon but has shown nothing in four runs for Paul Green. He drops in class but Green is yet to get a horse placed in a first time tongue tie from 5 runners. He should get a soft lead though.

Madame Elizabeth has placed in five maidens but she is by Multiplex whose progeny are 0-25 when returning to the track after a break of 6 months or more.

Cardmaster won his maiden last August but was tailed off on his seasonal debut. He steps up to a mile and this distance is right on the limit for the progeny of Red Clubs.

Conclusion: World Record should get a soft lead here with no other recognised front runners in the field. That will suit Nurpur who can latch onto his tail and get a tow. She has the best form in the book and will be suited by the 8f trip. The fact that Tudhope has travelled up the M62 from Ripon to ride two for O Meara speaks volumes.
 
1.45 Newmarket ...Sam Sharp...looks to be in the form of his life..last win form franked and is guaranteed a decent pace to go at here...stable in cracking form..6.8 is massive
 
5.20 Newton Abbot-Hazeldene

Each way @ 5-1 [Stan James] BOG

Nicely treated if talented new trainer can recapture his best form
 
4.10 - Redcar - Al Khan. Available at 7/2 (n.b)
5.10 - Redcar - Taro Tywod. Available at 11/2 (Nap)

3.30 - Stratford - Mostly Bob. Available at 16/1 (e/w)
5.40 - Redcar - Golden Future. Available at 16/1. (e/w)
 
Ricko said:
4.10 - Redcar - Al Khan. Available at 7/2 (n.b) 3rd
5.10 - Redcar - Taro Tywod. Available at 11/2 (Nap) 2nd

3.30 - Stratford - Mostly Bob. Available at 16/1 (e/w) 1st
5.40 - Redcar - Golden Future. Available at 16/1. (e/w) 3rd
Click to expand...

All four ran well, decent profit on the day.
 
Cheers Doomster


CARANBOLA 9.00 BEVERLEY

Caranbola is reunited with Silvestre De Sousa who is 3-4 on the mare and she drops into a 0-75 for the first time since she won off 75 over this course and distance in June last year. This is Caranbola’s track, 6-13, which improves to 6-9 when racing in 0-75. Her full record reads; 11271112. She was an unlucky second in this race two years ago and won it in 2010. She didn’t qualify for the race last year as she was rated 80. This race looks to have been the target.

Six Wives is one of five front runners in the race. She is on a long losing run but could be well handicapped. She hasn’t taken advantage of her mark of 71 with just a couple of placed efforts to her name but to be fair to the mare she has been running in a better grade than this. She is 7-20 in class 5 over 5f, won three of her last five. But, she has a lot of company for the lead tonight. She is well drawn and will run her race.

Miss Bunter has had a break and is most consistent on the all weather. She has just had the one run on turf, her racecourse debut. Both her wins were off marks of 58 and 64 in 0-60 and 0-65 and may find this a little too quick.

Oil Strike is 0-11 for Mick Easterby but he will win a race when Mick decides. Will it be tonight? The horse is 0-24 on turf and has only ever placed once on good to firm from 8 attempts. They have been fiddling around with tactics, he usually leads but he has been held up as well. On form, he shouldn’t win this.

Come On Dave is 0-11 on good or quicker ground and is 0-6 when returning to the track after a break of a month or more. He will have company up front.

Indian Trail is still mixing it at 13 years of age and won over this course and distance in September last year. The old boy will have this run to suit and if you take Kevin Stott’s claim into consideration, he should finish ahead of Caranbola. He has every chance but only one 13yo has ever won a 5f race from 60 attempts.

Mey Blossom is 3-9 at Beverley but she is still 4lbs higher than her last win here. She won off marks in the 70s in her pomp but she is nowhere near that sort of form now. She has lost her last 17 races when rated 60-65.

Just Like Heaven drops in grade but she is still 5lbs higher than her last win. She is 0-13 off marks above 64.

Master Rooney is another front runner who hasn’t won for two years. He is just 5lbs lower than his last win over this course and distance and is yet to show anything in three races for Geoff Harker. On a losing run of 15, it is difficult to envisage him halting his slide.

Conclusion: The 13yo Indian Trail could win this but I feel that he may well being targeted for a race next week in which he was beaten a neck last year or a repeat in the September race here. Mel Brittain has declared his intentions with the booking of DeSousa and the way the race will be run will suit Caranbola. She has an awful draw in 8 but De Sousa should be able to drop her in. None will be finishing faster and she should pick off his toiling rivals.
 
Rob - I think your write ups are superb; thanks for taking the trouble to post them and good luck with today's selection.
 
Great write up Rob and you make a compelling selection for Caranbola, one thing that does bother me about it is the trainer form only 1 winner from 54 since beginning of May.
Horse that catches my eye in that race is Master Rooney, G Harkers stable is in good form and interestingly this horse has run 2 off its best races in July, just touched off into 2nd by Lost in Paris off 84-4 btn nose and won over C/D here in 2011 on G/F from 80 btng Hazelrigg. Runs from 75-7 today and lead lto to 1f out over 6fs, can ignore 1st 2 runs on G/S i think, young jockey looks well worth his 7lbs having won a few races this year inc over C/D for Harker on Ziggy Lee,(caranbola behind). Probably have an ew bet on this one, good luck.
 
It's unclear what happened to Lost Legend (4.30) on his latest outing, but both horse and jockey make the substantial trek to Cartmel, which suggests it won't happen again this time.
Both Jonjo and AP have compelling records at the track.
 
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