What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
It could well be an Oil Strike benefit night but I think he will pop over to Wolverhampton with this one to fill his pockets.

I can see where your coming from re Mel Brittain but I feel tonight is the night with De Sousa booked, 28% sr for yard.

Interesting Jordan Nason had one ride at Ayr, won, and travels down for the one ride tonight.
 
What's going on here then, Like A Diamond, who had been cut to 3-1 from 50-1 for the 7.10 at Ballinrobe, has been withdrawn by order of the stewards.:ninja:
 
Im off to Musselburgh later..have had these not so obvious BOG bets on

2.00-Royal Straight @ 8-1 [Paddy Power]..Each Way

3.00-Showtime Girl @ 12-1 [Betfred] & Ridgeblade @ 12-1 [Bet 365]..Both Each Way

4.00-Red Baron @ 11-2 [Bet 365] & Findog @ 7-1 [Boylesports]..Both Each Way
 
Like A Diamond's was in ownership of Joseph Logan until 18th July, then transferred to 'Fair Play Partnership' - according to Racing Post the racing colours are the same for both Ownership names.

Joseph Logan has atleast one horse in training with Eoin Doyle (Thatothergentleman)
 
jft2005 said:
Like A Diamond's was in ownership of Joseph Logan until 18th July, then transferred to 'Fair Play Partnership' - according to Racing Post the racing colours are the same for both Ownership names.

Joseph Logan has atleast one horse in training with Eoin Doyle (Thatothergentleman)
Click to expand...

Curious turn of events...:whistle:
 
MLMRob said:
CONO ZUR 5.30 HAYDOCK

Cono Zur should get his own way up front today and he could run this lot into the ground. He was second to Robert The Painter the other day and they were the only two horses to get into the race. He was just run out of it in the last 100 yards. He is 1-1 when returning inside 5 days. He is on a long losing run but his last win was an 8f handicap here a year ago off 69. He is 3lbs better off today and has a very good apprentice on board. Lee McNiff is 1-6 for Ruth Carr, 1-2 apprentice races. This race is slightly easier than the one on Tuesday.

Prime Exhibit may well have been the selection if there had been pace in the race. He needs to have something to aim at but he won’t get that today. He doesn’t carry weight that well, 0-9 when carrying 9-5 or more with just one place. He has a top apprentice booked and will run his race.

Chiswick Bey is 0-6 on good to firm and all of his wins have come on a straight track, 0-8 going round a left hand bend. He has his first run for Phil Kirby who does well with other peoples cast offs, 9-87 and has saddled three winners this season, the latest was a horse from Noel Quinlan, same as Chiswick Bey. He is very well handicapped but he has never placed in four races at 8f-8.5f.

Mccool Bannanas usually sleeps in the stalls, hence his record of 1-27 and 0-6 on the flat. He did win at Wolverhampton in March when he managed to get away on terms. That was in class 6 and he is 0-16 in class 5.

Berlusca has only ever won at Wolverhampton and is currently 0-10 on turf. He is now qualified for 0-70s and being 1-16 in class 5 he may well be worth noting in a 0-70 at Wolverhampton.

Rio Cobolo is yet to place in five outings over 8f-8.5f. His last win on turf was here three years ago and is currently on a losing run of 27 on grass surfaces.

Silvas Romanas is 0-5, never placed on good to firm or quicker.

Hayek is 0-8 on good to firm and though very well handicapped and Rachel Richardson has won him before. He is another who falls asleep in the stalls.

Conclusion: Lee McNiff has won two of the last four apprentice races he has ridden in and he has another good opportunity here. He should be able to set soft fractions on Cono Zur and it is likely he won’t see another horse.
Click to expand...

Out again in the first at Musselburgh today, unpeanalised for the apprentice race where he came from off the pace, should lead today and could make all, 15/8 seems a decent price considering.
 
Last edited:
PlaceBacker said:
Im off to Musselburgh later..have had these not so obvious BOG bets on

2.00-Royal Straight @ 8-1 [Paddy Power]..Each Way..2nd @ 12-1

3.00-Showtime Girl @ 12-1 [Betfred] & Ridgeblade @ 12-1 [Bet 365]..Both Each Way..Non runner

4.00-Red Baron @ 11-2 [Bet 365]..Won & Findog @ 7-1 [Boylesports]..Both Each Way...2nd @ 8-1
Click to expand...

Great day,had the 26-1 forecast also in the 4.00
 
Nice going, PlaceBacker.

What I find strange is the CSF return. I've never worked out how they come up with these figures properly, but generally you can stick a point on the second and multiply to the two.

£27.82 CSF was the return yesterday in that race, yet the winners SP was 4/1 and the 2nd 8/1.

Anyone know the exact process, as that seems low to me? I'd have thought due to the field size it would probably be around £34.
 
Musselburgh yesterday. Estimated CSF and actual return.

2:00 6 runners - EST 29.25 / CSF 28.23

2:30 5 runners - EST 09.23 / CSF 11.11

3:00 5 runners - EST 04.40 / CSF 04.60

3:30 6 runners - EST 58.50 / CSF 49.64

4:00 8 runners - EST 36.00 / CSF 27.82

4:30 9 runners - EST 22.40 / CSF 22.36

5:00 9 runners - EST 03.38 / CSF 03.40


Edited. There was a 10p Rule 4. :) Still though, if anyone knows the exact formulae for these CSF's, I'd love to know.
 
Last edited:
ANGELITO 4.00 CATTERICK

Angelito was very unlucky last time. He was just about to make his move when the saddle slipped and his jockey lost his irons. The fact the winner didn’t pull away at this stage is down to the horse and he stayed on just to be beaten 1l by Blanc De Chine. The handicapper has put him up 2lbs to 80 for his effort. He was previously sixth at Redcar and once again spoilt his chance with a slow start. He made good headway and was first home of those drawn low. The winner and second have subsequently won, the winner off 5lbs higher in a class 3 and the second won off 4lbs higher in a class 4 before placing off 9lbs higher in a class 3. He has only ever been out of the frame once, arguably his best form when sixth, from 8 starts. This will be run to suit. Ed McMahon is in form and he won this race in 2007 with a horse with a similar profile.

Sunrise Dance looks certain to lead but she steps up in grade here. She has never placed in four attempts at class 4 nor has she placed at Catterick from two races. She is 6lbs higher than her last win and she is 0-4 off marks 66-71.

Silvanus can sometimes lead and takes a drop in class here. He is 3lbs lower than his last win a year ago and has won over this course and distance. However, he is 0-5 when returning to the track inside 7 days and has never carried more than 9-7 to victory in a handicap, 0-9.

Economic Crisis has her own ideas about the game and can get herself worked up in the preliminaries. She needs slower ground as she is 0-18 on good or quicker. She has never placed in four runs at Catterick.

Chunky Diamond is 0-5 in class 4, never placed. He is still 4lbs higher than his last winning mark and though he won a class 2 nursery off a higher mark, he is nowhere near that sort of form now. He hasn’t looked at ease on sharp or undulating tracks.

Tango Sky can miss the break but if he doesn’t then he usually leads. He is 0-5 on good or quicker ground and 0-7 when returning after a month off. Franny Norton who rode him last time is on Angelito.

Lost In Paris won this race last year off 4lbs higher and is 3-8 over course and distance. However, 5 of his 6 wins have come inside 10 days of his last race whilst he is 1-38 at any other time. He should run well.

Towbee is 0-10 on good or quicker, never placing, and has never placed in a handicap when carrying more than 9-5.

Conclusion: This looks to be between Angelito and Lost In Paris. There should be enough pace in the race for both to aim at but the relatively unexposed Angelito looks the answer. Angelito beat Lost In Paris 8ls at Thirsk in June and Lost In Paris is only 3lbs better off today. Chunky Diamond was picking up litter on his way round in last place. He is 12lbs better off with Angelito but his profile suggests he can’t win.
 
one of the few in form
to rated in my figures
coming from a race that will provide plenty of winners in coming weeks

expensive purchase
track, ground and distance will suit
stable in fine form,
had some entries for the week and this one looks the easiest one


took 9/2 but should be clear favorite for me in this races.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top