What are you backing Today?

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Cheers Rob, EC1, it's a good feeling when things pan out exactly right (doesn't happen that often, unfortunately)......Was good info Dan, although little Trixie went down had a few shekels more on De Repente after reading your report. Thanks again. ;)
 
Bolero said:
Have taken 11/2 about De Repente in the 14:45 at Carlisle (don't have an account with SJ so could not take their 15/2 on offer, which in a 4-horse sprint is pretty generous?). This Captain Rio filly should appreciate the ground and the distance on a stiff track. Hopefully, the 9-day break from last run is a sufficient rest period for this promising 2-y-o filly!

GL all!
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Good calls there Bolero and DD, Getting 11/2 about a 5/2 winner is excellent.
 
4.15 Wolverhampton-Fathsta

Each Way @ 5-1 [Boylesports] BOG

Like the jockey booking of de Sousa
 
PlaceBacker said:
4.15 Wolverhampton-Fathsta

Each Way @ 5-1 [Boylesports] BOG

Like the jockey booking of de Sousa
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Ian Williams

I expected Fathsta to win last time out but he was slightly disappointing so we can only hope that a return to the polytrack does the trick. He's not getting any younger but he ought to be good enough to be involved here today.
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Had a punt e/w at 10/1 (generally available at time of posting) on Minella Fifty in the 19:50 at Uttoxeter. Will probably appreciate return to hurdles, and distance and ground should suit. Decent claimer on board.
 
Excellent News in the 3.15 at Wolves looks interesting
10lb lower than when winning over C&D last year and crack young claimer
Oisin Murphy taking off 7.
Quite possible its not going to be up to much considering its owner/trained and 16/1 is available
But only a 4yr old and improvement may still be possible, 5.5 for a place is not bad i'm willing to have a punt.
 
Well, Minella Fifty ran a fair race yesterday, always in with a chance, but found wanting when the chips were down. Might give it one more try NTO? Today, will just have a small e/w at 25/1 (BOG) on newcomer Little Briar Rose in the 14:20 at Beverley.

Best of luck today everyone!
 
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ALJAMAAHEER 3.05 GOODWOOD

Aljamaaheer brings the best form to the table here. Third in the Lockinge he then went onto Royal Ascot where he finished second to Declaration Of War and finished ahead of Elusive Kate. That form alone is very strong considering Declaration Of War went on to finish second to Al Kazeem in the Eclipse. Elusive Kate went on to beat Sky Lantern in the Falmouth before winning the Rothschild at Deauville on Sunday. He is 4lbs worse off with Producer from their meeting at Leicester earlier this season but he is officially rated 5lbs better. Horses carrying a Group 2 penalty are 2-7 in this race. I think it is significant that Varian and Hamdan Al Maktoum have swerved taking on Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes for this easier assignment.

Producer is a live danger but he is going to have to improve to match Aljameeheer. He won the Criterion last time which on official figures he was entitled to do. However, on a line through Gregorian he can’t beat Aljamaheer this afternoon. He will have to run well as his main target is the Group 1 Prix De la Foret in October.

Garswood probably run to his mark in the Jersey Stakes and his official figure suggests he is 5lbs inferior to Aljamaaheer. He is by Dutch Art, as is Producer and Caspar Netscher, and Caspar is the only one of Dutch Art’s progeny to win a Group 1 or 2. 2-22. Six have placed though.

Fencing is 0-6 in Group races, never placing.

Professor fits a similar profile to Hannon’s previous winners of this race but this is a big step up in grade. Every one of the last 10 winners of this race had finished first or second in a group race, something Professor has yet to do.

Caspar Netscher returns to the track after firing blanks at stud. He won the Greenham after a break but it is a big ask to have him ready for this. Simcock is 0-28 with horses returning after a break of 300 days or more.

Krypton Factor is a Group 1 winner in Meydan but he steps up to 7f for the first time here. He is by Kyllachy so he should stay but it is three years since Krypton Factor won on turf.

Pastoral Player can’t beat Producer or Fencing on these terms. He has gone close in a couple of Group 2s but his overall profile suggests he is better at a lower level. He has finished unplaced on all three runs he’s had at Goodwood.

Libranno hasn’t shown anything near the form that saw him win the Park Stakes at Doncaster last year. He was beaten 1.5ls in this last year and 2.5ls in 2011. He isn’t well drawn here.

Boom and Bust and Monsieur Chevalier are here for their owners’ day out.

Conclusion: Aljamaheer comes here instead of running in the Sussex Stakes tomorrow. With Red Jazz coming out the pace may be affected. Boom And Bust looks certain to lead with the hard pulling Monsieur Chevalier. Producer likes to race prominently as does Professor and Libranno. That should set it up for Aljamaaheer who is the best horse on official figures and provided no rain gets in the ground he should win this.
 
Also very foggy, Calaf's drizzle and fog coloured silks are a boon today. Harry Bentley's instructions are hide behind the Racetech van and jump in 2f out.
 
Also put up in Goodwood thread

Goodwood
1.55

Fast Or Free needs the run this afternoon after an absence and whilst he is being aimed for the Cambridgeshire his gallop on Saturday with Nine Realms leaves the impression he will be a good deal better for the run.
His gallop companion held a similar lofty reputation prior to disappointing at York and whilst last years Hunt Cup winner is a nice prospect I would be airing on a side of caution today.
Whispering Warrior is improving all the time and backed up well with a win on his latest start whilst Nabucco who is my tentative choice won with a bit in hand at Newmarket last time and he continues to work nicely with his regular work companion Dick Doughtywylie at home.
Labarinto blew up after pulling hard at Ascot but isn't exactly packing any punches on the gallops, so I would be inclined to watch him also whilst at a big price, Express Fighter is value. He shouldn't be 22/1 as he is with some firms and his last run saw him race too freely unable to get cover. He's well drawn today and he has been going okay at home and with ew 1,2,3,4 on offer he is worthy of respect.

Selection: Nabucco
Saver: Express Fighter

2.30

The Hannon team are very sweet on Anticipated today who was a shade unlucky in France as he had to race without cover on the deepest part of the track and whilst he was staying on, those up the rail held a distinct advantage. His Ascot effort was solid enough and Hughsie should be able to tuck in with cover today, given Majestic Alexander and Brown Sugar should go forwards whilst Ambiance (Held by selection on French form) should also make a bold bid forwards.
Reroute is fancied from Ed Walker's yard and worked 6L clear of Bushcraft in his latest serious gallop. That companion won a fair nursery at the weekend and whilst this is tougher, she remains respected although there isn't a lot of ew value in her at around 7/2.
Supplicant was not disgraced at Ascot and was too green at Beverley on his second start. There wasn't a lot between him and the Hannon horse at Ascot but he certainly benefited from a straight run up the near side at Ascot, whilst Hughsie on Anticipated had to maneuver around the weakening Sleeper King and then finish up the centre of the track which certainly cost him at least a length and possibly the race.Pr
I feel Anticipated has run well without showing his best the last twice and I expect him to turn the Ascot form around today, I would save on Reroute who has the Newmarket dogs barking after than impressive gallop 10 days ago.

Selection: Anticipated
Saver: Reroute


3.05

Lay of day for me here in ALJAMAAHEER (LAY) and he is plenty short enough at 3/1, he was found out over 7f this season on his seasonal reappearance and whilst efforts in the Lockinge and Queen Anne were solid enough he made hard work of his race at Ascot and the 4lb penalty he now incurs for that will make life difficult. He is also not improving and today he takes on no less than five improvers.

Fencing has been working well on the Al Bahathri and he pulled a few lengths away from Gregorian in his most recent gallop pleasing both Gosden and Buick who felt he needed the work to put him spot on.
On Sunday morning he had a leg stretch again over 5f on the watered gallop where he sat upsides for 5f with the highly regarded Express Knowledge who is strongly fancied in the Gordon Stakes tomorrow.
Fencing beat the hugely consistent Sovereign Debt at Ascot earlier in the season and was fancied to run well in the Lockinge but he got struck into around 3f out and didn't let himself down afterwards.
He has taken a bit of time to get his confidence back but back he is and a big run is expected.

Richard Hannon has a strong hand as well, Libranno always gives his running without probably being quite good enough whilst Producer holds Aljamaaheer on his Leicester run (4lb better off as well today) and his disappointing effort at Epsom was explained by not really enjoying the ground over a longer trip.
Back to form with a decisive win beating a competitive field, he should run another big race.
The last of the Hannon trio is the interesting one. Professor was a winner over 7f last season but has been mainly targeted at 6f this season. Steadily improving his Salisbury win looks very solid, with the 2nd Justineo a winner at Newmarket last time, whilst 3rd home Miss Lahar has the franked the form on more than one occasion and won in good style at Naas last week.
The 4th and 6th have also boosted the form credentials with placed efforts in similar contests since.
Back up to 7f, he is interesting and although Ryan Moore turned down the ride to partner Garswood, Professor looked smart in his gallop last Wednesday when matching strides for most of the gallop with Toronado before his companion lengthened up by 1.25L late on. Professor is definitely capable of a big run today and with the weight for age allowance, I can see him being first home of the Hannon trio.

Garswood whose partnered by Moore, was an impressive winner first up at Newmarket this season prior to an impressive 7th in the Guineas, backed up when 4th in the Jersey, he is still improving and there could be more to come today with the Fahey yard in good form.

Krypton Factor is starting to look like a nearly horse, whilst he is unproven at 7f, and the slow starting Pastoral Player are others who can be considered as threats to the favourite.
All in all I feel there is enough to take on the fav and with Professor and Fencing juicy ew prices, value is with them, with Fencing my tentative vote after such an impressive gallop with Gregorian last week.

Lay: Aljamaaheer
Selection: Fencing
Saver: Professor

3.40

Ebor clues a plenty at 3.40 and no doubt Oriental Fox dropping back to 14f will be all the rage having running a close and unlucky 2nd in the Northumberland Plate.
He is fancied to go close, but he got first run on the field at Newcastle and I'm not convinced the drop back in trip is ideal given they went a slow gallop that day.

Guarantee and Montaser have good profiles and staying pedigree's and subject to good home vibes so are respected but their form does need to be stepped up upon to take a hand in the winning proceedings.

Silver Lime is an interesting one. He was unlucky at Ascot when getting no run through when he needed it but confirmed that promise when beating Caravan Rolls On at Ascot next time going away at the finish suggesting this trip will suit. Still lightly raced he is open to improvement and should go well.
Stable companion Clowance Estate is another lightly raced type with improvement assured and the run at Windsor suggested this trip would suit, confidence in the market would be noticeable.

Handsome Man worked okay on Saturday and he's better than his last run suggests. He got no cover early and was too keen but work at home suggests better is to come, but he would have preferred rain.

Harris Tweed is not a horse I like, whilst Cambourne needs this after injury. He worked okay on Friday but no more than okay and he is using this to put him right for the Ebor.

Saptapadi is again handicapped to run well now tackling a trip which is more suitable but at 25/1 I think Suraj is definitely worth a few shillings.
A progressive sort last season he won a strong 0-95 over 1, 6.5f at Doncaster off 88 in impressive style beating Beyond Conceit before a good 6th in the John Smiths Silver Cup behind Mount Athos & High Jinx when running off 97.
The wheels have come off a shade since but he wasn't suited to hurdling and has badly needed both runs this season.
He has excuses at Chester and was never really put in the race whilst better was expected at Ascot.
He got given an abysmal ride by Spencer who had him lit up and racing too keen early and when he finally allowed him his head he pulled his way forward to chase the leaders until 5f out, then hurried and unbalanced by Spencer he remained prominent until weakening 2f out. Spencer in true Spencer style then completely eased him down finishing 15.5L back. He was value to have only been beaten 8-9L that day and was in many ways not really given any sort of race.

Since then Michael Bell has made a very shrewd move in obtaining Tom Queally as his first choice rider when he isn't required to ride for Lady Cecil and Tom partnered Suraj in a gallop recently. Firstly he just sat upsides Bridgehampton when tracked up by Creme Anglaise on the Watered Gallop before a more serious piece of work where he led Wigmore Hall over 9f on the watered gallop when he was giving 12lb of weight to Wigmore Hall and ended up actually winning the gallop by 1.5L . He was also ridden by an inexperience girl in that gallop so the form of that work could be good. He wouldn't have minded any rain, but this is his trip and also the type of race that will suit and at the prices, he is massively overpriced.

Selection: Silver Rime
Saver: Suraj

Remainder Of Card

In the maiden at 4.15, I know William Jarvis thinks a lot of Blurred Vision and he is better than he showed on debut, whilst Lyn Valley is another that the Johnston team like.
That said Sacha Park has some very smart form and will be very hard to beat.

The last two races are very competitive and I'm not advising in them

Chris
 
I backed Producer on seeing that Hughes preferred it to the other thing. My heart sank when I heard Clarabelle telling the viewers on C4 that he did so because of a sparkling piece of work last week.

How many times is this phenomenon followed by an abject performance on the day?

Peaking too soon...
 
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